logo 
spacer
  

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

If you have an opinion, you should share it! Register Now!

America's Debate hosts the best in news, government, and political debate. Register now to take part in the most civil and constructive debate on the Internet. Join the community, and get ready to be challenged!

Click here to start

> Sponsored Links

Register to remove these ads!
> Election Predictions and Retrospective!, Share predictions, how you voted, and summeries of this election.
net2007
post Nov 5 2018, 10:00 PM
Post #1


********
Millennium Mark

Group: Members
Posts: 1,235
Member No.: 7,629
Joined: April-27-07

From: North Carolina
Gender: Male
Politics: Slightly Conservative
Party affiliation: Republican



I’m going to start with my prediction followed by my reasoning's. If your not going to vote or don’t have a prediction for the midterms feel free to share anything in relation to this election cycle.

My prediction is that the Republicans will increase their majority in the Senate by a few seats, and as far as the House goes, I think it’s a toss up. I’d give the Democrats a 60% chance at best of retaking the House and I would have never said this a couple months ago. I don't think this will be a blue wave on the order of the red wave that Obama saw. The Democrats lost enough seats under Obama to break records. We'll see what happens but it's not looking like that's the trend for the Republicans, though they're certainly fighting an uphill battle.

https://www.politifact.com/punditfact/state...atic-seats-con/
https://www.rollcall.com/news/obama-poised-...erm-loss-record

QUOTE
Obama had one midterm where his party lost 63 House seats, and Democrats are expected to lose another 5 to possibly 12 House seats (or more), taking the sitting president’s total midterm House loses to the 68 seat to 75 seat range.

Most recent presidents have one disastrous midterm and another midterm that was not terrible. The GOP lost 30 House seats in George W. Bush’s second midterm, but gained 8 seats in his first midterm for a net loss of 22 seats. The party lost 26 seats in Ronald Reagan’s first midterm, but a mere 5 seats in his second midterm for a net loss of 31 seats.


(From my understanding they used the Supreme Court to counter their lack of legislative power.)

I believe that one of the primary reasons for the recent boost Republicans have seen is incivility. To give some quick examples, Before the Kavanaugh hearings the Senate was a toss up and the House was considered out of reach. Now Republicans are expected to gain seats in the Senate and the House is now a toss up, especially if polling metrics are being misread as they were in 2016. The idea of Incivility being a key factor may not sit well with some, Trump is bombastic and says a number of things which contribute to the divisiveness, I think most people understand that.

The problem that I see is that the excessive focus on Trump by the left and Democrats often comes with little to no desire to reflect on problems that they’re helping to create. Many people are holding up Trump and conservatives to a high standard that they’re not meeting. I believe that this lack of inward focus has lead to less discipline in regards to their own speech and behaviors. It makes sense that this would lead to an explosion of uncivil rhetoric and even violence. I think most Americans see that there’s a double standard, it’s part of why Trump gets away with saying things that could have easily sunk prior Republican candidates before they had a chance to be elected. The political dynamics in America are changing in many ways. As a side note, I'm not saying conservatives don't contribute to these problems and the majority of leftist are not violent,

As far as this election goes, apart from the Kavanaugh hearings, multiple events have exposed the left and Democrats in a way that we haven’t seen in the past. The age of political correctness and using double standards as a tactic may not be coming to a close but more people are wise to what’s going on than ever before, those types of methods don't appear to be as effective as they used to be. Take the multiple “caravans” coming to the U.S., There’s evidence that there’s 100’s of criminals wanting to cross, most who are wanting to cross are able bodied men, some of whom have decided to place women, including pregnant women, at the front of the line to increase their chances of getting through, and they’ve already attacked law enforcement in Mexico. Republicans are depicted as either racist or unsympathetic to a group who are less fortunate than ourselves. While I think that it’s an argument that’s fair to apply to some, there’s often little or no mention of role the left and Democrats have played.

They’re often incentivizing immigrants to cross illegally, if not directly through activist groups, they do it through policies which encourage immigrants to break our laws. This is what helps initiate a process which has lead to sexual assaults on children coming into the U.S., drug cartels using immigrants as they cross, violence, and ultimately those family separations that the Democrats are putting focus on. The Democrats and left certainly aren’t the ones primarily responsible for something like the child abuse that occurs as immigrants push to cross our southern border, the ones committing those acts are, but they’re often not being straight forward about the full effect of the decisions they’re making. I don't think most of those crossing are criminals or a danger to our country, I think that some don't believe those who lean to the right when they say something like that though. Communication really needs to improve on both sides these days, hopefully it gets there.

To wrap this up, there’s more to this than I could explain in a few paragraphs, but there are reasons why the Democrat party isn’t doing as well as expected. Some aren’t being educated on the problems within the Democrat party, and many who are aware of these types of problems decide to ignore them while holding Republicans up to standards they’re not meeting, especially those who have more power, like politicians and media pundits, they seem to be the worst at misleading the public and turning the other cheek when something goes wrong. There’s still a strong part of me that wants Democrats to have a healthy party, but the current Senate and House is the most corrupt I’ve seen in my lifetime and they’re running several candidates who are going to add to the problem if elected.

The unfortunate part about this for me is that I don’t think that all of the Democrats ideas are bad ones, especially old school Democrats but the direction the party is headed now makes me fear that they’re not going to change anytime soon. I voted early for the first time in my life and voted Republican across the board for the first time in several elections. So much of what I’ve seen has pushed me away and it’s clear that current events have united the Republican party in many respects, will it be enough to hold both the House and Senate? I can’t say I’m convinced of that, historical trends are not on the Republicans side and their layout in the House is horrible this year with so many terms ending for Republicans, but if the Democrats squeak by with a win in the House, as harsh as it might sound I think it’ll have a lot to do with being at the right place at the right time, in some respects they’d be taking the House despite their strategy and actions rather than because of them.

I do want to say good luck regardless, this is an important election!

Questions for Debate….

1. If voting, which party will you cast more votes for and why?

2. Are there any individual candidates you want to mention in this race?

3. Do you have any predictions for this election? Any details on why you've made a prediction are welcome.

This forum was a little late and very close to election day so for after the election....

4. Can you summarize what happened during this election process, and what you think of the results?

5. Did the results of this election turn out the way you thought it would?

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
 
Start new topic
Replies (1 - 8)
Gray Seal
post Nov 6 2018, 01:27 PM
Post #2


********
Millennium Mark

Group: Members
Posts: 2,424
Member No.: 335
Joined: December-12-02

From: Edwardsville, IL
Gender: Male
Politics: Undisclosed
Party affiliation: None



1. If voting, which party will you cast more votes for and why?

Libertarian. I do not vote for big money candidates which eliminates many Republicans and Democrats. Libertrians are broadly self funded.

2. Are there any individual candidates you want to mention in this race?



3. Do you have any predictions for this election? Any details on why you've made a prediction are welcome.

I predict incumbents win over 90% of the time. Big money works. Big money controls. The biggest money is behind incumbents. Voters are ignorant and susceptible to big money.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
AuthorMusician
post Nov 6 2018, 03:02 PM
Post #3


**********
Glasses and journalism work for me.

Sponsor
November 2003

Group: Sponsors
Posts: 6,377
Member No.: 297
Joined: December-1-02

From: Blueberry Hill
Gender: Male
Politics: Liberal
Party affiliation: Democrat



1. If voting, which party will you cast more votes for and why?

As many voters have done, I did it early. I voted for Republicans when there was no other choice, which were quite a few local slots. One Libertarian running against a Republican and one independent, same deal. All others were Democrats.

2. Are there any individual candidates you want to mention in this race?

No, but the Democrats were mostly women. Seems to be a national trend for the Democrats.

3. Do you have any predictions for this election? Any details on why you've made a prediction are welcome.

Record turnout for the midterms, lots of new and/or young voters. Reminds me of the '70s when old white people at the polls were surprised that young people actually showed up.

Other than that, I'm not making predictions on the winners/losers due to not trusting the polls (surveys). The unknowns are just too many, including how bad weather in the East might impact turnout in those races.

I do think this election has a strong sense of the POTUS in it, but I don't think it'll trump mrsparkle.gif local issues.

For example, Republicans who don't like Trump will likely not vote for Democrats to run county governments.

I will be surprised if the Demos don't take the House, but I also understand that it's an especially uphill climb due to the 2010 gerrymandering. We had an amendment that would require a balanced committee outside of state government for redrawing districts after the 2020 census. I voted yes on that because gerrymandering has gotten out of hand. Redrawing districts is supposed to improve representation, not thwart it.

It's also possible for the Demos to take both the House and Senate, but just the House will make quite a bit of difference. I'll also be surprised if the entire Congress turns Democratic.

I can make this prediction: The midterms will reflect the actual will of the electorate due to all races being based on popular vote counts. The only problem with this is gerrymandering impacting the outcomes, but we'll still be able to see who voted for whom/what after it's all over.This in turn will impact the 2020 election season.

I can see the Democrats benefiting no matter what, since having power over the next couple of years might not be so great for 2020. An example would be an economic crash like in 2008 with Republicans holding their own bags of really bad ideas. Another example, if the Demos take the House, would be greater oversight of a POTUS who isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders.

I don't see Republican wins benefiting them at all. Way too much baggage. This will be especially bad for them if the electorate comes to understand gerrymandering as rigging the midterms.

In all though, these are the most interesting midterms I've ever witnessed.

This post has been edited by AuthorMusician: Nov 6 2018, 03:06 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
net2007
post Nov 6 2018, 06:46 PM
Post #4


********
Millennium Mark

Group: Members
Posts: 1,235
Member No.: 7,629
Joined: April-27-07

From: North Carolina
Gender: Male
Politics: Slightly Conservative
Party affiliation: Republican



QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Nov 6 2018, 11:02 AM) *
1. If voting, which party will you cast more votes for and why?

As many voters have done, I did it early. I voted for Republicans when there was no other choice, which were quite a few local slots. One Libertarian running against a Republican and one independent, same deal. All others were Democrats.

2. Are there any individual candidates you want to mention in this race?

No, but the Democrats were mostly women. Seems to be a national trend for the Democrats.

3. Do you have any predictions for this election? Any details on why you've made a prediction are welcome.

Record turnout for the midterms, lots of new and/or young voters. Reminds me of the '70s when old white people at the polls were surprised that young people actually showed up.

Other than that, I'm not making predictions on the winners/losers due to not trusting the polls (surveys). The unknowns are just too many, including how bad weather in the East might impact turnout in those races.

I do think this election has a strong sense of the POTUS in it, but I don't think it'll trump mrsparkle.gif local issues.

For example, Republicans who don't like Trump will likely not vote for Democrats to run county governments.

I will be surprised if the Demos don't take the House, but I also understand that it's an especially uphill climb due to the 2010 gerrymandering. We had an amendment that would require a balanced committee outside of state government for redrawing districts after the 2020 census. I voted yes on that because gerrymandering has gotten out of hand. Redrawing districts is supposed to improve representation, not thwart it.

It's also possible for the Demos to take both the House and Senate, but just the House will make quite a bit of difference. I'll also be surprised if the entire Congress turns Democratic.

I can make this prediction: The midterms will reflect the actual will of the electorate due to all races being based on popular vote counts. The only problem with this is gerrymandering impacting the outcomes, but we'll still be able to see who voted for whom/what after it's all over.This in turn will impact the 2020 election season.

I can see the Democrats benefiting no matter what, since having power over the next couple of years might not be so great for 2020. An example would be an economic crash like in 2008 with Republicans holding their own bags of really bad ideas. Another example, if the Demos take the House, would be greater oversight of a POTUS who isn't exactly hitting on all cylinders.

I don't see Republican wins benefiting them at all. Way too much baggage. This will be especially bad for them if the electorate comes to understand gerrymandering as rigging the midterms.

In all though, these are the most interesting midterms I've ever witnessed.


To reply on what I can from my phone, I can agree with a lot of what you're saying here. For example there's a strong sense of the POTUS in this race, and I don't trust the polls either. In part due to the last presidential election and other elections following a similar path, such as the 2004 presidential election where John Kerry was ahead in the polls but ending up losing, including the popular vote in that case.

However, personally I wouldn't be surprised if the Democrats don't take the House. I said I think that there's about a 60% chance the Democrats will flip the House but I'm going against some of my gut instinct when I say that. Although the Democrats are doing well with turnout, Republicans have seen a slightly higher turnout in early voting than the Democrats in several key states, (much to my surprise given how motivated Democrats are), and I believe the polling metrics are similar to 2016. I'm thinking the polls will be more in favor of Republicans than some are realizing.

With that said, my gut instinct could be wrong, based on over half of the data I have the Democrats would barely take the House and they'll almost certainly gain seats. To me it comes down to how much the polls are off and how strong the Trump effect is this year. There's a similar feeling in the air as there was in 2016. This could be another upset victory for Republicans, but ultimately my gut instinct is one thing and the unpromising layout in the House, the polls, and the motivation Democrats have right now, say something different.

This post has been edited by net2007: Nov 6 2018, 06:49 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
AuthorMusician
post Nov 7 2018, 12:50 PM
Post #5


**********
Glasses and journalism work for me.

Sponsor
November 2003

Group: Sponsors
Posts: 6,377
Member No.: 297
Joined: December-1-02

From: Blueberry Hill
Gender: Male
Politics: Liberal
Party affiliation: Democrat



4. Can you summarize what happened during this election process, and what you think of the results?

Looks to me that this part of the American experiment worked as designed. The House went to a popular push to preserve benefits for the people, mostly health care insurance, by the people, as in the popular vote counted, but the Senate remained the way it was. The House was designed expressly to turn over more quickly than the Senate and as a check of the common people over the power people (big money). The Senate, with its longer terms, is supposed to act as a check on the common people going woo-hoo-bat-crap-crazy.

5. Did the results of this election turn out the way you thought it would?

I haven't reviewed what happened in detail, but so far there are no surprises.

Now I'm wondering what impacts this will have for 2020. Two more years of attrition for old white guys will make a difference for sure. Could see some major movers and shakers heading to the happy hunting grounds. But will younger voters remain motivated? Will women continue to push back on patriarch-based policies? The trend for the browning of the population will likely continue, but will it motivate voters?

Then there's the issue of Trump. Will he be running again? Or will it be Pence in there or maybe a whole new crew? Although it'd be a big deal anyway, rolling over the Executive on purpose before the 2020 season would be a game-changer.

What if Trump and Pence were to leave politics -- then it'd be the Speaker of the House, who is going to be a Democrat, and might be Pelosi. But would she run after filling in like Ford did or defer to some other Democrat?

I am happy that the Demos won the House mostly because its way more interesting than if they had not. Also that, despite the craziness of TEA types and Trump, the foundations of our democratic republic survived yet once again.

Perhaps the electorate will come to understand that apathy for voting is as dangerous as any foreign foe or internal social upheaval to our way of government. Hope people stay involved -- sure beats wasting away, or as Neil Young put it, it's better to burn out than to fade away. My my, hey hey.




Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Gray Seal
post Nov 7 2018, 03:31 PM
Post #6


********
Millennium Mark

Group: Members
Posts: 2,424
Member No.: 335
Joined: December-12-02

From: Edwardsville, IL
Gender: Male
Politics: Undisclosed
Party affiliation: None



4. Can you summarize what happened during this election process, and what you think of the results?

Big money won. Whether a woman wins, a Republican, or a Democrat the results are the same. No surprises. The only question was style. Substance remains the same. Bigger government by big money for big money and for bigger money.

5. Did the results of this election turn out the way you thought it would?

yes

--------

QUOTE
The Senate, with its longer terms, is supposed to act as a check on the common people going woo-hoo-bat-crap-crazy.

My understanding was that the Senate was to represent the states. The Senate was to be the regional democracy model to balance the popular vote model.

-------

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2...inois/governor/

If you have clicked on the above you will see a map of Illinois showing the Illinois governor vote by county. The county vote was 90 for Rauner and 15 for Pritzker.

QUOTE(AuthorMusician)
The midterms will reflect the actual will of the electorate due to all races being based on popular vote counts.

Is there no value in regional democracy? Should the will of the majority in a smaller region wash over the will of people in larger regions? In Illinois, it is such a wide discrepancy between popular vote and regional vote. Should cities dominate elections?

As for myself, I would prefer an electoral college based theme for electing governors. Half the vote would come from popular vote and the other half from regional votes. I think this would be a better reflection of the will of the people.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Bikerdad
post Nov 8 2018, 05:53 AM
Post #7


*********
Advanced Senior Contributor

Group: Members
Posts: 2,832
Member No.: 715
Joined: May-8-03

Gender: Male
Politics: Undisclosed
Party affiliation: Undisclosed



Questions for Debate….

1. If voting, which party will you cast more votes for and why?
Voted. Primarily Republican, but also voted for an assortment of 3rd party candidates. Downvoted retention for ALL judges.

2. Are there any individual candidates you want to mention in this race?
Late to the party, not applicable.

3. Do you have any predictions for this election? Any details on why you've made a prediction are welcome.
Late to the party, not applicable.

This forum was a little late and very close to election day so for after the election....

4. Can you summarize what happened during this election process, and what you think of the results?
Democrats and their MSM operatives spent 2 years attacking Trump. Other than "Orange Man Bad", they really didn't have any message. Republicans semi-blew it by squandering their legislative opportunity. The Kavanaugh circus was as great a political misstep as "no new taxes", if not greater.

5. Did the results of this election turn out the way you thought it would?
Close, but not quite. I really thought that Menendez and Keith Ellison would lose. Apparently, #BelieveAllWomen expired with Kavanaugh's confirmation. Likewise for the Dem candidate who had married her own brother. (ewwwwww).

Medical Marijuana passed in Utah. A zoning change for student housing in Orem, Utah is currently in the "For" column by ONE vote. Democrats have done their best (and looks like they'll succeed) to eliminate all diversity from the Utah Congressional delegation, replacing a woman of color with a white male. Seems remarkably racist of them, eh?

Initiative to ban local soda and grocery taxes leading in Washington.
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/p...-in-washington/

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
AuthorMusician
post Nov 9 2018, 04:20 PM
Post #8


**********
Glasses and journalism work for me.

Sponsor
November 2003

Group: Sponsors
Posts: 6,377
Member No.: 297
Joined: December-1-02

From: Blueberry Hill
Gender: Male
Politics: Liberal
Party affiliation: Democrat



QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Nov 7 2018, 11:31 AM) *
Is there no value in regional democracy? Should the will of the majority in a smaller region wash over the will of people in larger regions? In Illinois, it is such a wide discrepancy between popular vote and regional vote. Should cities dominate elections?


At the national level, yes, cities should dominate rural areas. That's because more constituents live in cities. At the state level, the small towns can dominate through state house/senate elections, plus county/town elections, and that domination usually has more to do with the daily lives of constituents than national dominance.

There are exceptions, of course.

The idea of having state ECs for US Senate elections would help how? Wouldn't the number of delegates from cities be a lot higher than from rural areas? Or are you thinking every district/county would have an equal number of delegates?

In any case, I suppose a state is free to structure its election system however it wants via state constitutional amendments. The challenge would be to get enough signatures for the idea to be put on the ballot, like how Colorado has tried to control gerrymandering.

*

I was expecting the results of the midterms to be drawn out, but not as much. That's because a lot of races were very close, and that has kicked in recounts/runoffs. Seems the Demos did a lot better than I thought possible. And apparently better than the POTUS feared. More than a ripple, less than a tsunami, pretty much a blue wave.

This could very well continue into the next election season, as it's a movement based more on facts than fears. However, fear of another four years of Trump or whoever takes his place could be significant. The question is whether lies and propaganda will win over more supporters than truth and track records.

For examples, health care, foreign wars, subsidizing the already wealthy, allowing taxpayer money thieves in, racist policies, and now I've run out of commas. Dang!

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
net2007
post Nov 11 2018, 12:23 AM
Post #9


********
Millennium Mark

Group: Members
Posts: 1,235
Member No.: 7,629
Joined: April-27-07

From: North Carolina
Gender: Male
Politics: Slightly Conservative
Party affiliation: Republican



I'm still restricted on available writing time but will have a longer reply here after I reply in another thread. For now, congrats to the Democrats for flipping the House. I really hope that our politicians are able to tone things down some. Unfortunately there are no signs of that yet but I haven't lost hope that things will eventually calm back down somewhat

Authormusichian, your gut instinct was right on the House, the polls were still a bit off and more in favor of Republicans than how they were presented, but not by enough in many races. I'll address some other points before too long.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

  
Go to the top of the page - Simple Version Time is now: November 18th, 2018 - 01:59 PM
©2002-2010 America's Debate, Inc.  All rights reserved.