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> Well, that's that, Obama is still President, and Republicans can still block him
Julian
post Nov 7 2012, 11:11 AM
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No preamble to speak of, just questions for debate:

What were the key factors that allowed Obama to win last night?

Did Obama, in fact, win on his own merits, on the merits of his party in spite of his own problems, or was it Romney's to lose?

Did Romney lose because of his own failings, or because of the failings of his party?

Where would you like to see national politics go from here, and where do you think they will go from here?
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Raptavio
post Nov 8 2012, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Nov 8 2012, 03:39 PM) *
QUOTE(Raptavio @ Nov 8 2012, 03:20 PM) *
...
... Remember, the day Obama took office was not the low point. It peaked at nearly 12% in mid-2009, just before the stimulus began to take effect. Unemployment has dropped four points since then, ...
...

Unemployment peaked not at 12%, but at 10% (in Oct '09). During the ensuing 36 months, it has dropped not by 4%, but by 2.1% (i.e. 0.7% per year).

Compare that to the last time unemployment peaked at similar levels: 10.8% in Nov '82. During the following 36 months, it dropped to 7.0% (i.e. 1.3% per year).

Sorry, you're right, I looked at the wrong chart.

Interestingly, how did Reagan pull us out of the recession he helped create and worsen? Massive deficit spending. On election day 1984, 7.2% unemployment rate. And he didn't have a Congress determined to make him fail to bring about a recovery.

What the actual unemployment rate will be once adjusted (for example, the jobs numbers in 2011 were undercounted by 386,000 -- adjustments happen.)

But thanks for the correction, akaCG. Speaking of corrections, let me know when you want to discuss those election results.
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amf
post Nov 8 2012, 10:15 PM
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QUOTE(Raptavio @ Nov 8 2012, 05:09 PM) *
Interestingly, how did Reagan pull us out of the recession he helped create and worsen? Massive deficit spending.

Not to continue to side-track, but Reagan didn't create the recession of 1981. That was Paul Volcker -- with Carter AND Reagan's blessing -- in his role as arbiter of interest rates driving rates up north of 15% for a short time to shock the economy.
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Raptavio
post Nov 8 2012, 10:32 PM
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QUOTE(amf @ Nov 8 2012, 04:15 PM) *
QUOTE(Raptavio @ Nov 8 2012, 05:09 PM) *
Interestingly, how did Reagan pull us out of the recession he helped create and worsen? Massive deficit spending.

Not to continue to side-track, but Reagan didn't create the recession of 1981. That was Paul Volcker -- with Carter AND Reagan's blessing -- in his role as arbiter of interest rates driving rates up north of 15% for a short time to shock the economy.

I said "helped."
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EuroBlack
post Nov 8 2012, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Nov 8 2012, 11:39 PM) *
For additional fun, a comparison:

Oct' 12: Unemployment peaks at 10% and spends the ensuing 36 months declining to 7.9% (i.e. 0.7% per year).

Nov '82: Unemployment peaks at 10.8% and spends the ensuing 36 months declining to 7.0% (i.e. 1.3% per year).

Because 4 years of Carter was the same as 8 years of 10 billion dollar waisting Dubya? Did Carter also start TWO wars on a credit card, fraudulently keep those wars OF THE BOOKS, add a completely unnecessary drug prescription plan costing us Billions????
it's a sign of amazing skill that Obama managed to increase employment at all, so severe was the devastation left by Bush. Funnily enough, in exit polls a majority of Americans KEEP assigning blame for all this misery to Bush rather than Obama. I'd say the biggest blame goes to House Repubs, even more so than Bush, now.


This is blatantly unfair comparison is actually a nice demo of what is WRONG with present day "conservatives" (quotes cos Ronnie would have been so ashamed of you people, which is why he taught them a bit of Realpolitik), you believe in dumb fairy tales.
This is also why Romney would have been a DUMB president: He served up a whole bunch of extremo right wing lies and expected us to believe that. How dumb is that? To think that your own teapackers will believe them, is one thing, but to be SO arrogant to think it wouldn't also matter to the rest of us, the sane people, is preposterously moronic.

This post has been edited by EuroBlack: Nov 8 2012, 11:36 PM
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akaCG
post Nov 9 2012, 11:59 PM
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What were the key factors that allowed Obama to win last night?

Here's another one, and it can be laid squarely at the Romney campaign GOTV team's doorstep. A stunning, and infuriating, display of incompetence:
QUOTE
...
What is Project Orca? Well, this is what they told us:

Project ORCA is a massive undertaking – the Republican Party’s newest, unprecedented and most technologically advanced plan to win the 2012 presidential election.
...
The entire purpose of this project was to digitize the decades-old practice of strike lists. The old way was to sit with your paper and mark off people that have voted and every hour or so, someone from the campaign would come get your list and take it back to local headquarters. Then, they'd begin contacting people that hadn't voted yet and encourage them to head to the polls. It's worked for years.
...
So, the end result was that 30,000+ of the most active and fired-up volunteers were wandering around confused and frustrated when they could have been doing anything else to help. Like driving people to the polls, phone-banking, walking door-to-door, etc. We lost by fairly small margins in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. If this had worked could it have closed the gap? I sure hope not for my sanity's sake.
...

Link: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334783.php

Stunning. Just stunning.

Romney lost ...

Ohio by about 110,000 votes
Florida by about 60,000 votes
Virginia by about 120,000 votes
Colorado by about 120,000 votes
Iowa by about 100,000 votes

Total: about 510,000 votes.

If the aforementioned 30,000 volunteers, instead of ending up running around like chickens with their heads cut off, had each been able to help the campaign scrounge up just an extra 17 voters in the right precincts, Romney would have won all of the above 5 states. That would have put him at 281 Electoral College votes.

I'm heading to the gun range tomorrow and I'm gonna take out my frustration on a few targets.

Aaaaargh!!!!

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Raptavio
post Nov 10 2012, 12:26 AM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Nov 9 2012, 05:59 PM) *
Stunning. Just stunning.

Romney lost ...

Ohio by about 110,000 votes
Florida by about 60,000 votes
Virginia by about 120,000 votes
Colorado by about 120,000 votes
Iowa by about 100,000 votes

Total: about 510,000 votes.

If the aforementioned 30,000 volunteers, instead of ending up running around like chickens with their heads cut off, had each been able to help the campaign scrounge up just an extra 17 voters in the right precincts, Romney would have won all of the above 5 states. That would have put him at 281 Electoral College votes.

I'm heading to the gun range tomorrow and I'm gonna take out my frustration on a few targets.

Aaaaargh!!!!


I know that feeling, akaCG. Kerry lost in 2004 by a small margin in Ohio, and Gore lost in 2000 by an unbelievably (and disputed to this day) small margin in Florida. Lots of Democrats feel that we could have won by proactive, rather than reactive, action to protect voter rights. (And in 2000, the math says they're right about that.) I know that pain.

For what it's worth, even if the 30K volunteers had been operating properly, it'd be pretty long odds to have won all those states -- Obama would have been reelected by winning any one of Ohio, Virginia, Florida, or both Colorado and Iowa. I don't think the failings of ORCA cost you the election.

But I really know how you feel. I've been there. Every Democrat over than 30 has.
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akaCG
post Nov 10 2012, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(Raptavio @ Nov 9 2012, 07:26 PM) *
QUOTE(akaCG @ Nov 9 2012, 05:59 PM) *
Stunning. Just stunning.

Romney lost ...

Ohio by about 110,000 votes
Florida by about 60,000 votes
Virginia by about 120,000 votes
Colorado by about 120,000 votes
Iowa by about 100,000 votes

Total: about 510,000 votes.

If the aforementioned 30,000 volunteers, instead of ending up running around like chickens with their heads cut off, had each been able to help the campaign scrounge up just an extra 17 voters in the right precincts, Romney would have won all of the above 5 states. That would have put him at 281 Electoral College votes.

I'm heading to the gun range tomorrow and I'm gonna take out my frustration on a few targets.

Aaaaargh!!!!

...
For what it's worth, even if the 30K volunteers had been operating properly, it'd be pretty long odds to have won all those states -- Obama would have been reelected by winning any one of Ohio, Virginia, Florida, or both Colorado and Iowa. I don't think the failings of ORCA cost you the election.
...

Beg to differ.

What the Romney campaign would have needed was an extra ...

10 votes per precinct in Florida (pop. density: 350/sq. mile)
20 votes per precinct in Ohio (pop. density: 280/sq. mile)
50 votes per precinct in Virginia (pop. density: 200/sq. mile)
... and ...
40 votes per precinct in Colorado (pop. density: 50/sq. mile)
... or ...
55 votes per precinct in Iowa (pop. density: 55/sq. mile)

Eminently doable. If one doesn't drop the ball (e.g. not testing the GOTV software until Election Day, for goodness's sake!), that is. And if one doesn't forget or choose to second-guess GOTV 101 basics, such as:

Number of campaign field offices (roughly):

Florida: Obama 105, Romney 45
Ohio: Obama 130, Romney 40
Virginia: Obama 60, Romney 30
Colorado: Obama 65, Romney 15
Iowa: Obama 65, Romney 10

This was a GOTV failure on the part of the Romney campaign, pure and simple. There is no excuse for the ORCA snafu. Nor is there an excuse for not matching the other side's physical presence locally.

Again, ...

AAAAAAAAARRRRRRRGH!!!!!

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Raptavio
post Nov 10 2012, 06:18 PM
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Well, we'll never know, obviously. It still seems like long odds from where I'm sitting, having been involved in more than one ground game in my day.

Regardless, yeah, that sort of sting hurts. FWIW, it eventually turns into fire in the belly to pull out a victory next time around.
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EuroBlack
post Apr 22 2013, 02:46 PM
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Romney did not lose because he organised poorly, which is a stunning diploma of ineptness in itself.
Romney lost because he was caught lying, over and over again, because he pandered to basically, misogyny-fascists, and because he couldn't deny the basic fact that he is a rich elitists who's dumb enough to believe right wing myths, in the words of that dangerous liberal, Megyn Kelly "lies Republicans tell themselves to feel better about themselves"

Akacg, you should wonder about this: Why didn't those 30.000 volunteers manage to scrounge up 17 voters each? Is it because they were .... LAZY??

Or is it because they were selling a stupid message, based on lies and non-functional greed?

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Amlord
post Apr 22 2013, 05:06 PM
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This topic is old so it is being closed. Thank you to all that have participated. If you have further interest in the topic discussion, please feel free to start a new thread.
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