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> POTUS Impeachment Watch 2018 . . . ?, The kind that uses eyes, calendars and chronometers
AuthorMusician
post Feb 12 2018, 04:26 PM
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I suppose the topic of impeachment of the current POTUS started a microsecond after it became clear he had won the Electoral College but lost the citizens' vote by around three million. It could have started earlier, but now it's looking so bad that removal from office is actually in the best interests of the nation, a matter of national security -- or so it seems.

Here's the guy who predicted a Trump win and also predicts his impeachment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGd7h-Tpy7E

As Lichtman points out, a mathematical model can't be constructed, which he used to predict the EC win, because the event of impeachment hasn't occurred enough times in USA history. So, what do we watch and how long will it take -- if it indeed is to happen?

Lichtman says it may take a lot longer than a lot of citizens want, but will it be into Trump's second term as it was for Clinton and Nixon?

Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?
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AuthorMusician
post Jul 22 2018, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(Curmudgeon @ Jul 21 2018, 01:34 AM) *
An extremely rude question about President Trump is an article that popped into my mailbox from The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

On MSNBC, they have been reporting that his latest "leak" that he had an affair with a Playmate and his attorney recorded the conversation was a tape which the court had ruled represented attorney client privilege and ergo could only have been leaked to the press by Cohen or Trump.

I have no idea who benefits when we turn off the news and watch Doctor Who or the X-Files. I only know that 24/7 coverage of "The Donald" seems to be bad for our tempers, our mental health, and the world in general.

Donald's proposal that a federal law should be passed to force waitresses to surrender their tips to restaurant owners did not go over well with waitresses or customers.

Realistically, I have to believe that Donald Trump will be the first President to be removed by impeachment or the 25th amendment,. The only question will be which party will be in charge when it happens...

Polling still seems to represent the opinions of people who answer their land lines. I'd see what the newspapers have to say...but I don't know where I can find one outside of visiting the library...

I still see paper-based news in Safeway and gas stations -- certainly not all of them -- and talk occasionally with folks who read them on a fairly regular basis. And yeah, it's upsetting no matter what the source. Still, I like digital news better except for the cartoons. And I sometimes miss the ink stains on my hands from the morning rag, along with the really bad photo reproductions. This is not the America I grew up in, thank goodness. It's more interesting.

Discussion has devolved for some into calling uncomfortable stories fake news or the story tellers rusky trolls, but for others it's still attempting to make sense out of insane situations. Kissing Vlad's ring (sphincter) is one of the recent examples, but it makes perfect sense within certain contexts.

I don't think we'll be hearing much about impeachment before midterms unless it's from Republicans who can't take it any longer. Democrats seem to be focusing on local issues, although there's been some noise about dismantling ICE. If it isn't affecting local people who vote, it's likely not worth pursuing. Meanwhile, letting Trump be Trump while Republicans deal with this bouncing cannon strikes me as a pretty good strategy.

The unreliability of polls is a good thing in that the doubt reduces automatic thinking. Other metrics have to be looked at for predicting election outcomes, and the fact has to be faced that nobody really knows much about anything when it comes to making prognostications. Ergo, go vote? Let your little light shine? Or crawl into a hole and hide?

Maybe Trump is good for the nation in that otherwise apathetic citizens will try to help fix this abomination. You know, before he drums up an excuse to use war powers and declare martial law.

Another plus seems to be working its way through: the realization that the Republican Party has moved itself to the right way too far. Democrats have known this since Reagan, but now the [snide joke alert] slow learners are catching up.

Then again, it could all be going to hell in a handbasket full of deplorable sadists. Maybe learning Russian won't be so bad? Naw, that'd suck in so many ways -- even American Nazis would hate it.
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Ted
post Aug 28 2018, 03:29 AM
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[quote name='AuthorMusician' date='Feb 12 2018, 12:26 PM' post='100035328']
I suppose the topic of impeachment of the current POTUS started a microsecond after it became clear he had won the Electoral College but lost the citizens' vote by around three million. It could have started earlier, but now it's looking so bad that removal from office is actually in the best interests of the nation, a matter of national security -- or so it seems.

Here's the guy who predicted a Trump win and also predicts his impeachment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGd7h-Tpy7E

As Lichtman points out, a mathematical model can't be constructed, which he used to predict the EC win, because the event of impeachment hasn't occurred enough times in USA history. So, what do we watch and how long will it take -- if it indeed is to happen?

Lichtman says it may take a lot longer than a lot of citizens want, but will it be into Trump's second term as it was for Clinton and Nixon?

Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

As Dershowitz says show me the Statute

Nver happen

But if dems are stupid enough to try that's GREAT. Reward stupidity

anyone remember what happened in the midterms when repubs tried to impeach Bill?

the republicans LOST seats ....so ya dems - go for it

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AuthorMusician
post Sep 9 2018, 02:25 PM
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QUOTE(Ted @ Aug 27 2018, 11:29 PM) *
Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

As Dershowitz says show me the Statute

Nver happen

But if dems are stupid enough to try that's GREAT. Reward stupidity

anyone remember what happened in the midterms when repubs tried to impeach Bill?

the republicans LOST seats ....so ya dems - go for it

Apparently, the Dems are smart enough to not go for impeachment in their midterm campaigns, so the Repubs are trying to do it for them:

https://www.click2houston.com/news/politics...out-impeachment

This is a losing strategy for the Repubs because the general consensus in the electorate is already for getting rid of Trump, and saying that the opposition will try to do what the electorate wants is in effect giving voters a strong reason to go with Demos.

The only part of the electorate that will react as Repubs wish are already Trump supporters. It's just preaching to the choir for those voters -- of course they don't want impeachment because Trump has done so much for them, which includes, um, I don't know what. Allowing racists to express themselves? Bringing peace to the ME? Erecting a big beautiful border wall? Keeping the Obama economic revival alive?

It doesn't matter what Trump supporters believe he has done for them, which in objective reality is not a whole lot. Midterms are usually about local issues, although getting rid of Trump, or at least greatly hamstringing him until 2021, could be a big deal this time.

Another interesting thing is that a Trump impeachment actually has a lot of objective evidence to support it, including what the POTUS says or tweets, whereas the Clinton impeachment did not.

Anyway, looks like the Dems are waiting this out, since nothing's going to happen impeachment-wise until 2019 no matter what. First things first -- gotta get the House and hopefully the Senate before nailing Trump to the metaphorical wall.
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net2007
post Mar 24 2019, 09:54 PM
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It's over, no proof of collusion and no proof of obstruction of justice. Sincerely AM, I'll tell you that there are still potential crimes out there and reasons to ask questions but the Democrats in office and in the media who have pushed this narrative too hard while making numerous premature comments, sometimes going as far as to say Trump committed treason, have screwed up and have egg on their face.

Early on, when I mentioned managing expectations on the Russia collusion narrative, it was because of numerous indicators that something was off. We've agreed on many things in regards to Trump's temperament but left-leaning networks have left out a huge portion of what happened in regards to this investigation and with Trump in a larger sense. From here it appears that top Democrats are already planting the seeds to be able to suggest that this was a coverup because they're demanding that the Mueller report be released in full which goes against standard practice. There are already indicators that they're doing this so they can claim that the AG is hiding something, even though Mueller could expose Bill Barr at any moment if he were to hide the truth.

There are Democrats in office who won't stop, but their relentlessness, regardless of the circumstances, is why I mentioned that this investigation and the atmosphere surrounding it feels like it's had more in common with the Republicans going after Clinton in the 90's than it does with Watergate and Nixon.

The USAToday poll below was taken several days ago and found that...

QUOTE
"Support for the House of Representatives to seriously consider impeaching the president has dropped since last October by 10 percentage points, to 28 percent."


and that...

QUOTE
Fifty percent say they agree with Trump's assertion that the special counsel's investigation is a "witch hunt" and that he has been subjected to more investigations than previous presidents because of politics; 47 percent disagree. Just 3 percent don't have an opinion.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politic...unt/3194049002/

Now that this investigation is over I expect these numbers to shift even more in favor of Trump. Trump's approval rating has remained about as high as it's ever been and has stayed consistent with Obama's approval rating during his first term for a while now. It's hard to see how this doesn't help Trump even further. Short of some groundbreaking discovery that hurts Trump, he's in a good position to do well in 2020. The Kavanaugh hearings, the Russia investigation, the rise of Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and top Democrats embracing her, the violent protest, the corruption we learned about within the FBI and DOJ, and the radical stance some Democrats are taking on abortion, are all things that are hurting the Democratic party, just to name a few things. With the economy booming and a number of policies that will keep conservatives interested, the Democratic party really needs a change in tactics. Exposing the flaws of their opponents only gets the Dems so far, especially considering the fact that they're frequently getting it wrong.

I had a thread in the works on the Mueller investigation which I aimed at having finished before his report was released. I may still finish it but it'd have to be rephrased and updated at this point, there's a lot more to say on this topic for sure.
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