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covid questions
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Mrs. Pigpen
post Oct 24 2020, 03:30 PM
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I hope I did this poll correctly (it has been a long while).
I am curious how many people know anyone who has had covid. We know a great many people, and out of all of them we only know four personally who had covid.
None of them had to go to the hospital for treatment (not even our seventy-something year old neighbors).

What are your thoughts on the lockdown? This is casual, no debate.

This post has been edited by Mrs. Pigpen: Oct 25 2020, 01:24 AM
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Blackstone
post Oct 24 2020, 09:37 PM
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In your experience, is the cost of a lockdown worth the gains? Feel free to elaborate.

This question, as it's worded, is essentially impossible to answer. While the costs of the lockdowns can be to some degree measured in terms of our personal experience, there's nothing our own personal experiences can tell us about what the potential benefits are, i.e., how many lives are saved by these measures. The only way we could even begin to know an answer like that is to look very much outside our personal experiences - to statistical studies and things like that, and even then we'd have to be sure that those sources are trustworthy, which again our personal experience will tell us practically nothing about.
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Mrs. Pigpen
post Nov 3 2020, 10:52 PM
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QUOTE(Blackstone @ Oct 24 2020, 05:37 PM) *
In your experience, is the cost of a lockdown worth the gains? Feel free to elaborate.

This question, as it's worded, is essentially impossible to answer. While the costs of the lockdowns can be to some degree measured in terms of our personal experience, there's nothing our own personal experiences can tell us about what the potential benefits are, i.e., how many lives are saved by these measures. The only way we could even begin to know an answer like that is to look very much outside our personal experiences - to statistical studies and things like that, and even then we'd have to be sure that those sources are trustworthy, which again our personal experience will tell us practically nothing about.


That's fair. I changed the question and moved this to casual conversation.

I now know two more people with COVID.
Our neighbors.
So first our neighbors to the right of our home had COVID and now our neighbors to the left have it.
Fortunately, they are younger (in their 50s, not 70s like the ones to our right).
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net2007
post Nov 18 2020, 10:17 PM
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QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Oct 24 2020, 10:30 AM) *
I hope I did this poll correctly (it has been a long while).
I am curious how many people know anyone who has had covid. We know a great many people, and out of all of them we only know four personally who had covid.
None of them had to go to the hospital for treatment (not even our seventy-something year old neighbors).

What are your thoughts on the lockdown? This is casual, no debate.


I'll keep this one casual by mentioning little to nothing on politics but would like to address your original question a bit if that's okay. I'm writing another reply to Droop so I wont go too far into all the details on this reply. thumbsup.gif

To address what you're saying here, I don't know anyone personally who has contracted Covid-19 but my sister and girlfriend both know someone who has. Case numbers are going up right now so that could easily change but so far we've been very fortunate. My mother has chronic and severe health conditions so we do what we can to keep her safe. Coincidentally she's been on hydroxychloroquine for years to help treat her athritus. Whether or not it will help for Covid-19, I have no idea. Many doctors think it doesn't help but some doctors swear by it. That's been the story of Covid-19 in general, health experts, the media, and politicians have often sent mixed messages about what's best for us. I will say this, Hydroxychloriqune isn't on any list I've read for the most deadly prescription or over the counter drugs. Ironically enough, Acetaminophen (Tylenol) is on those list so with that said, I don't expect Hydroxiclhoriquine will put my moms health at risk...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/...rates/39807161/

To talk about lockdowns, I thought they were very important when this virus first broke out. We heard the phrase "15 days to slow the spread" from the media and health experts. Initially the idea was to slow the spread of Covid-19 enough for us to have time to prepare supplies and prepare our hospitals. To me that made sense but as time progressed, 15 days became a couple of months, then that eventually that became 8 months for some locations and now we have some people wanting lockdowns late into next year. Dr. Fauci is saying it may be 2022 before we see "some semblances of normality". Although he wasn't suggesting we should go back to nationwide shutdowns when he said that, some areas are deciding to lockdown again due to this more recent spike in cases.

I don't think lockdowns will last too much longer for reasons I'll explain below but...
  • To over the bad news first....
I believe that Covid-19 lockdowns have been doing more harm than good for quite some time now. First, there's the economic concern with shutting down states or cities. Small businesses have been forced to shutdown and even larger corporations and industries have struggled in many cases. For example, the lumber industry got hit hard due to lockdowns which has been hard for individuals who are building and I imagine for many smaller construction-based businesses as well. As for my situation, we're currently building a house but we did cost estimates for lumber and other materials before the economy took a hit. We're too far along now to turn back on this project but the price of lumber has increased 130% since April which has put us in a difficult spot...

https://nebldgsupply.com/strong-demand-and-...%20on%20average.

It started costing us nearly 40 dollars for one treated 6 x 6 pine board to use as support piers which forced us to switch to cinder blocks. Stacking those and filling them with concrete and rebar is actually cheaper than one 6 x 6 board which is crazy. There's nothing we can do about the framing lumber though, we'll have to buy that soon. Overall, the cost of building our house has gone up by several thousand dollars.

Considering the situation that some people are in, we're actually very lucky. The worst impacts of the lockdowns aren't economic, it's the effect they've had on the public both emotionally and physically. Not only that, at the same time that the public has been put under increased economic and emotional stress, access to community support services has dropped. For example, in many cases, mental health practices and churches have either severely limited access or have gone virtual. The impact on children has been substantial as well with widespread school closures and many daycare facilities shutting their doors. I believe that these things have contributed to the spikes we see in suicide rates and the increase in drug and alcohol abuse. As far as the impacts on the publics physical health, multiple things have happened.

Most concerning to me was the number of doctors who have come forward voicing concern over the drop off in checkups and a reduction in the amount of medications that are prescribed for potentially life-threatening conditions. Here are some numbers that address just the drop-off in cancer screenings back in the month of May alone when lockdowns first became widespread...

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7436906/
http://trustedindustryexpert.com/lls3qk1m7...ure-breast.html

To quote this source...

QUOTE
"The final observed weekly volumes for breast (559), colon (402), and cervical cancer (66) represent drops of 94%, 86%, and 94% respectively relative to averages prior to January 20, 2020."


And this is just in relation to drops in screenings for 3 different types of cancer. Not considering other illnesses, on the topic of cancer alone, this gets more concerning....

https://cancerletter.com/articles/20200501_1/

This medical article revealed a 17% drop in visits involving chemotherapy and cancellations and no-shows nearly doubling, going up to 80%. What that means is that people who already have cancer aren't getting their chemotherapy medications at the same rate because they're too afraid to go to the hospital. I think the lockdowns have contributed to this phenomenon on some level but more than anything I think this is the end result of how Covid-19 has been presented to the public. Covid-19 case numbers and the number of people who have died from this disease are statistics that should be covered by the media, that's vitally important but I believe they should be putting more emphasis on other statistics as well and do more to encourage people to get help for other serious medical conditions.

I want to end on a positive note, I very much believe that things are going to improve dramatically in the months to come. The media has focused heavily on Covid-19 case numbers, every time there's a spike in the number of cases we hear about it. Whenever the amount of deaths in America clears a new number, like 200,000, we hear about that as well. What we don't hear about nearly as much are statistics on the fatality rate of Covid-19 and these numbers have consistently gone down since May with no exception which is extremely important. For example, the Covid-19 case fatality rate peaked in May, at 6.1%. This means that in May if you include everyone who tested positive for Covid-19, about 6% of them died. Today, the case fatality rate is down to 2.2% and it keeps dropping because last month it was at 2.7%...

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data...;pickerSort=asc

Keep in mind that these are averages, the case fatality rate actually isn't 2.2% for most age groups. The case fatality rate has always been the highest with the elderly which is what brings the national average up to 2.2%. When it comes to the youngest age groups (age 0-19) the case fatality rate doesn't even register as 0.0% in most countries...

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-c...covid-19-by-age

I've heard one estimate that Covid-19 is about 10 times less deadly for children than the flu and there are a lot of stats to give merit to that claim. This is why a lot of people want schools to reopen.

Another good way to verify that Covid-19 is far less lethal now than it's ever been is to consider that the U.S. now has well over twice as many Covid-19 cases than we've had at any other time, yet despite this, the amount of deaths from Covid-19 per day is far less than it was when Covid-19 cases first spiked in the U.S....

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases
https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

Lastly, A LOT of people who have Covid-19 are asymptomatic and therefore don't get tested because they're not sick. So given that the case fatality rate doesn't factor in those who haven't been tested, the true Covid-19 death rate would be much lower than 2.2%. Covid-19 is overall more deadly than the flu, primarily due to how it impacts the elderly and those who have certain severe illnesses. So here's my personal opinion on what we should do from here. I think we should limit access to businesses that deal with the elderly. For example, I don't think anybody should be able to visit a nursing home without getting tested. Across the board, I believe all other businesses should be taking precautions but I don't believe that schools should be treated the same as nursing homes. A one sized fits all solution can really do unintentional harm for many businesses and this is has become very personal for a lot people. I think it's easy to talk about our safety being more important than the economy while forgetting the impacts that lockdowns have had on the publics emotional and physical wellbeing. I've believed for a long time, that we should be balanced in our approach on this.

Perhaps I'm an optimist but with the fatality rate of Covid-19 continuously dropping and a vaccine that's nearly ready to be distributed, I don't think our government will be able to justify Covid-19 lockdowns much longer. The next time we see a major dip in Covid-19 cases, I think that most of the panicking will be behind us, but we'll see. All I'll say on politics is that it wouldn't look good for an incoming administration, (likely Joe Biden), to have a struggling economy so I suspect that the tone of the media is going to change in the months to come. I could be wrong, but either way, I think we're on the verge of things changing dramatically. Just as with Aids and the Flu, early on these diseases were extremely deadly but as our treatments got better, the fatality rate dropped so I'm hoping people can start to see some light at the end of the tunnel on this.

This post has been edited by net2007: Nov 19 2020, 05:12 AM
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Mrs. Pigpen
post Yesterday, 01:58 PM
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I agree with just about all of that, Net.
Read yesterday that in Japan in the past month suicides have taken more lives than Covid in has in the past year.

The ROK has been the quintessential example for "success". I wouldn't like to see the draconian level of privacy infringement and liberty restrictions on movement they have over there.
Yet even so, at the moment they are experiencing a covid spike as high as when they were ground zero for second-worst number of covid cases in the world.

One of our sons is going through a particularly rough time.
He was able to see a therapist at the university twice in a couple of months. They were so backed up with people needing help.
Now he is home. Our health insurance is very good but the soonest available appointment is in February. Because, again, so many people need therapy right now.
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