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> Europe's asylum seeker crisis, How will things play out?
akaCG
post Oct 23 2015, 06:36 PM
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Question for debate:

Is the current asylum seeker crisis (some of the aspects of which are described in the articles in the bottom portion of this post) in Europe going to lead to ...

A. Just a bit of an adjustment period, after which things will settle down?

B. A relatively peaceful unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

C. An increasingly violent unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

D. Other?




Sweden

QUOTE
...
"August 3: Another shooting took place in the violence-stricken city of Malmö. No one was hurt this time, but the police found empty shell casings on Rasmusgatan Street in the Seved area, one of Malmö's "no go-zones," where a majority of the inhabitants are of foreign descent. The area is known for its open drug trade, and over the last few years, a large number of shootings and grenade attacks have occurred there. (On June 12, a hand grenade was thrown, and four people were wounded. ...
...
August 5: The Stockholm police department caused an uproar with a shocking story about everyday life in immigrant-heavy suburbs such as Tensta-Rinkeby, Hjulsta, Kista and Husby. Youth gangs regularly attack police by using lasers to blind them, and throwing rocks and firebombs. Criminal gangs resolve conflicts by shooting at each other in public places, risking the lives of innocent people who may be in their way."
...
August 14: Two men, 21 and 26 years of age, were remanded, suspected of two of the many recent hand grenade attacks in Malmö. At the same time, another 26-year-old was remanded for attempted murder and possession of an illegal weapon, both of which occurred in Rasmusgatan, in Malmö's "no-go" Seved neighborhood.

Early that morning, police also discovered two hand grenades in Adelgatan, in central Malmö. One had exploded, and the other one failed to work. A large area was barricaded and several buildings had to be evacuated. The police suspected the incident could be linked to a car bomb that had detonated in Malmö two days earlier. Malmö has experienced the most bomb attacks of all Scandinavian cities: this year alone, 20 bombings have taken place.
...
August 14: A so-called unaccompanied refugee child was prosecuted on rape charges. The act took place on the night of January 10, in a youth home in Västerbotten in northern Sweden. The suspect is a native of Afghanistan and claims to be 17 years old. The police believe he raped the woman when she was in a drunken stupor, and therefore in what the law calls a "particularly vulnerable situation."
...

Link: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6550/swe...ulticulturalism
QUOTE
...
The week after the double murder at IKEA in Västerås, where a man from Eritrea who had been denied asylum grabbed some knives and stabbed Carola and Emil Herlin to death, letters and emails poured into the offices of Swedish Prime Minister (PM) Stefan Löfven. Angry, despondent and desperate Swedes have pled with the Social Democratic PM to stop filling the country with criminal migrants from the Third World or, they write, there is a serious risk of hatred running rampant in Sweden. One woman suggested that because the Swedish media will not address these issues, Löfven should start reading foreign newspapers, and wake up to the fact that Sweden is sinking fast.
...
Swedes see the welfare system failing them. More and more senior citizens fall into the "indigent" category; close to 800,000 of Sweden's 2.1 million retirees, despite having worked their whole lives, are forced to live on between 4,500 and 5,500 kronor ($545 - $665) a month. Meanwhile, seniors who immigrate to Sweden receive the so-called "elderly support subsidy" -- usually a higher amount -- even though they have never paid any taxes in Sweden.

Worse, in 2013 the government decided that people staying in the country illegally have a right to virtually free health and dental care. So while the destitute Swedish senior citizen must choose between paying 100,000 kronor ($12,000) to get new teeth or living toothless, a person who does not even have the right to stay in Sweden can get his teeth fixed for 50 kronor ($6).
...

Link: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6607/sweden-migrants-fear
QUOTE
...
At a press conference October 9, Prime Minister Stefan Löfven said that Sweden is in a state of crisis. However, when asked to clarify what he meant by this, Löfven was unable to produce a single coherent sentence.
...
During the question period after the ministers' speeches, journalist Tomas Ramberg of Ekot Public Radio asked: "You say that Sweden is preparing for a crisis situation, what do you mean by those dramatic words?"

Stefan Löfven's reply was incomprehensible:

"Yes, well first of all we, we are in the middle of what I mean seriously when I'm saying, when I express a, a big thank you to all the people doing such a great job, because it is a humanitarian effort, it's just as the Minister for Justice and Migration just said. What we are actually doing is that we are saving lives when people who come from bombs, from, from killing, from oppression, their lives are shattered. We, we help them and that is a, that is a great humanitarian effort, and of course now that we can see the number of people who need it, that are seeking protection, then it is one of the greatest humanitarian efforts. And that we are facing a crisis situation, that is in part why I, we are outlining today that we are also preparing for a situation where we may need to house people in tents, because we stand up with the humanitarian refugee policy, right of asylum, but we can now also see that we cannot close our eyes to the fact that there are more coming than ever in such a short time, and we need to provide a roof over their heads. Then it is -- other things may be required."
...

Link: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6697/sweden-collapse

Germany

QUOTE
...
In the Kreuzberg district of Berlin, more than 400 migrants, mostly from Africa, occupied an abandoned school because they no longer wanted to live in tents in a nearby square. When 900 police arrived to clear the building, some migrants poured gasoline inside the structure and threatened to set themselves on fire, while others threatened to jump off the roof of the building. "We are currently negotiating with local authorities about how to proceed," a Sudanese migrant named Mohammed said. "We will not leave until our demands [amending German asylum laws so they can remain in the country] are met."
...
Just hours after arriving in Fuldatal, 40 asylum seekers from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria complained about conditions at a refugee shelter there and demanded that they be given their own homes. ...
...
In Walldorf, a town in the state of Baden-Württemberg, a group of migrants demanded that local authorities immediately provide them with private apartments because they were tired of living in a refugee shelter with 200 other asylum seekers. The leader of the group, a 46-year-old refugee from Syria, said he expected more from Germany. It was high time for Germans to begin to "treat us like human beings," he said.
...
In Bad Kreuznach, a family of asylum seekers from Syria made an appointment to view a four-room rental property but refused to view the house because the real estate agent was female. ...
...
In Idar-Oberstein, a town in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, an imam at a refugee shelter refused to shake the hand of Julia Klöckner, a visiting dignitary, because she is a woman. After Klöckner, the vice-chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), shared her experience with the German newsmagazine Focus, she received more than 800 emails from women across the country describing how they, too, have been mistreated by Muslim migrants.

One woman described how Muslim men repeatedly cut in front of her at the supermarket checkout line. "Twice while shopping at a German supermarket I was shown that I am a second-class citizen," she wrote. In one instance, an adult Muslim male with a full shopping cart cut in front of her. In broken German, he said: "I man. You woman. I go first." In another instance, a young Muslim male elbowed the woman while cutting in front of her. "When I said that I would let him go ahead of me if he asked me for permission, I was instructed by his sister that boys do not need to ask, they just demand."
...

Link: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6753/ger...igrants-demands

QUOTE
...
A growing number of women and young girls housed in refugee shelters in Germany are being raped, sexually assaulted and even forced into prostitution by male asylum seekers, according to German social work organizations with first-hand knowledge of the situation.
...
At the same time, growing numbers of German women in towns and cities across the country are being raped by asylum seekers from Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Many of the crimes are being downplayed by German authorities and the national media, apparently to avoid fueling anti-immigration sentiments.

On August 18, a coalition of four social work organizations and women's rights groups sent a two-page letter to the leaders of the political parties in the regional parliament in Hesse, a state in west-central Germany, warning them of the worsening situation for women and children in the refugee shelters. The letter said:
...
Approximately 80% of the refugees/migrants at the shelter are male, according to Bavarian Broadcasting (Bayerischer Rundfunk), which reports that the price for sex with female asylum seekers is ten euros. A social worker described the facility this way: "We are the biggest brothel in Munich."
...
On August 6, police revealed that a 13-year-old Muslim girl was raped by another asylum seeker at a refugee facility in Detmold, a city in west-central Germany. The girl and her mother reportedly fled their homeland to escape a culture of sexual violence; as it turns out, the man who raped the girl is from their country.
...
Over the weekend of June 12-14, a 15-year-old girl housed at a refugee shelter in Habenhausen, a district in the northern city of Bremen, was repeatedly raped by two other asylum seekers. The facility has been has been described as a "house of horrors" due to the spiraling violence perpetrated by rival gangs of youth from Africa and Kosovo. A total of 247 asylum seekers are staying at the shelter, which has a capacity for 180 and a cafeteria with seating for 53.

Meanwhile, the raping of German women by asylum seekers is becoming commonplace. Following are a few select cases just from 2015:
...

Link: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6527/migrants-rape-germany

Norway

QUOTE
...
Radical Muslims have been trying to recruit at reception centres for recently arrived refugees, Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) warns.

"We have seen signs that extreme Islamists have approached the reception centres and asylum seekers. They have been there to get contacts. Aside from that, it's difficult to say what their specific purpose is," Jørn Presterudstuen from PST told Norwegian news agency NTB.
...
Norway has seen a surge in the number of refugees arriving in recent months, with the the Norwegian Directorate of Immigration stating that their previous prognosis of 20,000 to 25000 asylum seekers in 2015 is too low.
...

Link: http://www.thelocal.no/20151023/islamists-...-asylum-centres

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Julian
post Nov 5 2015, 06:40 PM
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Is the current asylum seeker crisis (some of the aspects of which are described in the articles in the bottom portion of this post) in Europe going to lead to ...

A. Just a bit of an adjustment period, after which things will settle down?

B. A relatively peaceful unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

C. An increasingly violent unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

D. Other?


Well, it's messy, to be sure. By the way, Norway are not an EU member state, so I'm not sure how anything happening there is much to do with the European "project" unless "project" is code for "continent".

And there's more than one "project" here, anyway. There's the Euro currency union project, the EU trading block, the EFTA free trade area (which Norway is a member of), the European Court of Justice (whose signatories include Russia). So it's not very clear cut to start with.

By dint of simple geography the Euro (by which I mean countries in the Eurozone) closest to the main sources of inward migration are Greece (just across the Med from the whole Syrian/Iraqi maelstrom), Italy (just across the Med from the chaos that is used to be Libya) and Spain (also just across the Med from North Africa). And what-do-you-know, they are the countries who have done worst from being in the Eurozone, a system designed to impose German levels of probity on nations without German levels of political accountability. And a system which was originally designed to be mutually beneficial, with more successful members helping out less successful ones, which would logically require Germany to fund the crisis points. They have, up to the point of where German domestic political opinion looked like it might turn against the project.

AANYWAY, my point in bringing that up is that the EU countries facing the sharpest challenge from the current migrant influx have the least available resources to deal with it, and those furthest away from it (France, Germany, the Netherlands, the UK, Ireland) are, overall, better placed. Consequently, they (the more North-Western countries) tend to be the target nations for "economic migrants", much more than for simple "refugees" who just want to get away from the bombs and the gunfire, and tend to stay put in the first country they get to once they leave their own. That's why, numerically, more Syrian refugees are in places like Jordan than are getting to Europe. And because of their own domestic problems, the countries of first arrival (who, under EU law, are supposed to be the places where asylum is claimed) have reasons to turn a blind eye to the onward movement of migrants through their own countries on to others.

So the migrant/asylum crisis is putting further strain on existing problems for both the Euro currency, and my bet is that "Grexit" will still be on the cards. The crisis is also exposing flaws in the way most EU countries abide by EU laws - under pressure, most countries appear content to ignore breaking of such laws*, if not actively avoid them - and how little power the EU has to enforce them.

*In this I'd include the arch Federalists of the EU, Germany, who are usually portrayed as sticklers, and of thinking of themselves that way. The whole Volkswagen emissions scandal, which is expanding to include fiddling of CO2 emissions testing in petrol cars now, is a case in point. A nation of sticklers for the rules would have been the first to pick up that their biggest domestic manufacturer was breaking the rules (and, indeed, the law in some countries, and will have been the cause of an enormous tax fraud here in the UK, where Road Fund Tax is banded based on those CO2 emissions).

I don't believe the crisis, as it stands at the moment, will be the death knell of the European project nor will it return the continent to the bloodbath it was for centuries prior to the mid 20th. Not yet.

But I did read an article a while back that was an eye-opener.

One of the reasons there are so many Syrian refugees? Drought. The whole Middle East region has been suffering successive years of below average rainfall for some time now. Not enough to cause the "scenes of Biblical proportions" that TV journalists give one another awards for talking about, but enough to cause a lot of the Syrian and Iraqi population to leave the countryside in the past few decades. They have struggled to make a living from farming the parched land, so moved to the cities. (Here we can contrast them with, say, China, where a similar urbanisation has been driven by relative prosperity of the cities, but because the cities were booming, rather than the rural areas failing.)

But where is the biggest impact of modern terrorism/civil war? Cities. Climate change has been a factor in this as well as the more talked-about instability caused by power-vacuums in Iraq and Libya, and the regional power-plays between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudia Arabia. Whether or not that climate change is man-made is a whole other thread (or, more likely, another hundred).
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akaCG
post Nov 5 2015, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(Julian @ Nov 5 2015, 02:40 PM) *
...
I don't believe the crisis, as it stands at the moment, will be the death knell of the European project nor will it return the continent to the bloodbath it was for centuries prior to the mid 20th. Not yet.
...

I tend to agree. Especially with the "as it stands at the moment" and "Not yet" parts.

QUOTE(Julian @ Nov 5 2015, 02:40 PM) *
...
But I did read an article a while back that was an eye-opener.

One of the reasons there are so many Syrian refugees? Drought. ...
...

Not quite:
QUOTE
...
Writing in the current issue of the journal “Middle Eastern Studies,” Francesca de Châtel of Radboud University in the Netherlands explains that “it was not the drought per se, but rather the government’s failure to respond to the ensuing humanitarian crisis that formed one of the triggers of the uprising, feeding a discontent that had long been simmering in rural areas.”

The drought hit hardest in the northeast, the most impoverished and neglected part of the country, which was also the country’s breadbasket and source of oil, explains de Châtel.
...
“The humanitarian crisis that followed the 2006-10 drought can thus be seen as the culmination of 50 years of sustained mismanagement of water and land resources, and the dead end of the Syrian government’s water and agricultural policies,” writes de Châtel.
...
She warns that “an exaggerated focus on climate change shifts the burden of responsibility for the devastation of Syria’s natural resources away from the successive Syrian governments since the 1950s,” and allows President Bashar al-Assad and his regime to blame external factors for its own failures.
...
Overgrazing caused rapid desertification; the cancellation of subsidies for diesel and fertilizer as part of a botched transition to a social-market economy increased rural poverty; and many families abandoned their farms for the cities in search of work, she writes.
...
“The government’s response to the drought – attempts to downplay it and subsequently deny the humanitarian crisis or blame it on externalities – is part of a mindset that influences all aspects of policy making and implementation in the Syrian water sector,” writes de Châtel.
...

Link: http://ens-newswire.com/2014/02/28/assad-r...red-syrian-war/

For stark contrast, ...:"How Israel beat the drought"

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Bikerdad
post Nov 6 2015, 01:30 AM
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Question for debate:

Is the current asylum seeker crisis (some of the aspects of which are described in the articles in the bottom portion of this post) in Europe going to lead to ...

A. Just a bit of an adjustment period, after which things will settle down?

Nope, no way in hell.

B. A relatively peaceful unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?
Highly unlikely.

C. An increasingly violent unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?
This is where I'd put my money. Invest in bullets boys.

D. Other?sorta....

The first question to be asked is "what is this 'European project'? If by that you mean the European Union, then yes, things are going to unravel. But.... on the other side of the bloodshed, the "EU" may very well emerge much, much stronger and more cohesive than it is today. Whether the new form is the European Ummah, or a neo-European "continentalist" (a step up from nationalist) superstate is unclear. Hitler's ghost may have the last laugh over the next generation, as anti-Semitism in Europe makes his death camps merely the opening act, only the anti-Semitism will be directed at the OTHER Semites, aka Arabs, or more generally, any and all Moslems. The other possibility, already mentioned, is that the ancien regime of Europeans on the whole don't have enough balls remaining to defend their own civilization from the barbarians, but many do, and so a low grade civil war will erupt all across Europe as the resistance to Islamization turns violent yet is ultimately unsuccessful.

It IS remotely possible that the Europeans will realize that they have to fight to save their civilization in Europe, and do so soon enough that the violence will be minimal. Given their feckless leadership currently, I'm not confident such will be the case. They have almost painted themselves into a corner, and soon the only way out will be a flooded with blood. Whatever, if anything, comes out the far side isn't going to bear much resemblance to post Cold War Europe. The Islamic invasion is not, by any means, the sole cause of Europe's impending transformation. It's simply the catalyzing agent.

Europe is about to rediscover this simple reality:

That which can't go on, won't.


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akaCG
post Nov 7 2015, 07:26 PM
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A somber take:
QUOTE
...
A total of three million refugees and migrants are headed to Europe next year, according to new EU estimates. ...
...
If this is true, Europe will explode. This is triple the 2015 yearly rate of about a million (which itself was an over three-fold increase from the 282,000 that came in 2014). That current rate has already led to the rise of the far right, serious stresses on national and local governments, and the partial breakdown of the Schengen system. So far, many of these stresses have been manageable and perhaps reversible—but if things get three times as bad as they are right now, that will all change. Strong polls for the far right will likely become an election (or elections) in which a party like the Sweden Democrats or Front National takes office; Schengen hiccups could become an outright collapse of the system; and both inter- and intra-national tensions will skyrocket.

The majority of immigrants are streaming to Germany and Sweden, with the Germans expecting to accept this year 800,000 newcomers or more into a nation of 80 million. As we have noted before, that’s about the same rate as the U.S. took in during the “Great Wave” of immigration, our historic peak, in 1880-1924. That wave eventually resulted in a popular backlash in the U.S. that shut down immigration almost completely for two generations. If Europe, which is far less culturally, legally, economically, and popularly prepared to take in immigrants than the United States was then, is hit by a rate triple that, expect politics as the Continent knows them to change dramatically.
...
But most of all, the thinking from Brussels ignores European political realities. Refugees are coming without popular support and not much in the way of legal sanction. Europe is poorly set up to receive them, culturally as much as economically, and European citizens can see that the line of people in Africa as well as the Middle East who would like to get into Europe stretches as far as the eye can see. If Europe’s leaders do not present their constituents with a credible plan to address popular concerns, things are going to get very, very ugly in 2016.
...

Link: http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/...grants-in-2016/

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AuthorMusician
post Nov 8 2015, 12:01 PM
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QUOTE(Julian @ Nov 5 2015, 02:40 PM) *
But I did read an article a while back that was an eye-opener.

One of the reasons there are so many Syrian refugees? Drought. The whole Middle East region has been suffering successive years of below average rainfall for some time now. Not enough to cause the "scenes of Biblical proportions" that TV journalists give one another awards for talking about, but enough to cause a lot of the Syrian and Iraqi population to leave the countryside in the past few decades. They have struggled to make a living from farming the parched land, so moved to the cities. (Here we can contrast them with, say, China, where a similar urbanisation has been driven by relative prosperity of the cities, but because the cities were booming, rather than the rural areas failing.)

But where is the biggest impact of modern terrorism/civil war? Cities. Climate change has been a factor in this as well as the more talked-about instability caused by power-vacuums in Iraq and Libya, and the regional power-plays between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudia Arabia. Whether or not that climate change is man-made is a whole other thread (or, more likely, another hundred).

Here's what the US military branches have been doing:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/201...global-warming/

QUOTE
At a time when Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bush 41, and even British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, called for binding international protocols to control greenhouse gas emissions, the U.S. Military was seriously studying global warming in order to determine what actions they could take to prepare for the change in threats that our military will face in the future.


The US military obviously could not care less who or what is causing global climate changes, just that it's a reality that needs to be considered. Drought and big storms/flooding have been predicted since I started paying attention to the issue in the 1980s. Looks like what was predicted is coming to pass, or better, to roost like a flock of buzzards around a rotting carcass.

Whatever happens in Europe, if climate change is really driving the migration, will then be a testament to the shortsightedness of humanity. However, it's rather convincing that the migration is due to the high risk of getting killed in crossfire or being conscripted and becoming actors in the crossfire.

Another wrinkle in this is that Saudi Arabia has been buying up US farmland in our deserts to grow alfalfa using aquifer water:

http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/...abia-water-use/

The problem.

http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2015/1...-of-groundwater

The Arizona hay (alfalfa) farm.

The feed goes to dairy cows. Apparently dairy is an important food staple for the Saudis.

Looks like it wouldn't matter that much if the ME wasn't experiencing a drought, since all desert regions by definition are always dry, and recharging aquifers with rainfall always takes a really long time. The problem then isn't directly linked to global climate change as much as higher demand for basic resources, in this context fresh water for farming.

So maybe the migration is happening because it has become impossible to live in the ME desert regions due to lack of ground water rather than risk of bullets/bombs/swords cutting life short.

Could also be just one of several reasons to get the hell out. I lean toward that take right now.

As far as how the migration will impact Europe, I'm reluctant to make any conclusions due to lack of dependable knowledge. Overcrowding is never good, so I'm expecting bad things to happen. Those bad things garner headlines because people like to be thrilled by other people's blood. On the other hand, there should also be success stories (however that's measured) that might show up in some media, usually after the fact and without screaming headlines. Journalists call these human interest pieces.

So will there be more good than bad? Or will it all turn nasty-ugly with ghettos and racists and storm troopers and death camps? I don't know. Too early to tell.
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Ted
post Nov 10 2015, 09:51 PM
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C. An increasingly violent unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

this has been coming for the EU and is now gathering strength. Its going to get ugly as the mess in the ME worsens as it surely will with Iran and Russia now in the mix in a very big way.

QUOTE
AM
Drought and big storms/flooding have been predicted since I started paying attention to the issue in the 1980s. Looks like what was predicted is coming to pass, or better, to roost like a flock of buzzards around a rotting carcass.

Whatever happens in Europe, if climate change is really driving the migration, will then be a testament to the shortsightedness of humanity


well first of all "climate change" has not affected Europe any more than the US. If you have been " paying attention to the issue in the 1980s" you would know that none of the prediction have come to pass.

what is going to happen because of the ridiculous EPA plan to drive even faster reductions of CO2 from the US is all of us will see higher energy prices...and of course this stupidity will do NOTHING to lower world CO2...so why are we doing it?

Billionaires who donate to Democrats....the ultimate in sleazy stupid political bull crap...

QUOTE
Billionaire Tom Steyer On Money In Politics, Spending $74 M On The Election
http://www.forbes.com/sites/katiasavchuk/2...n-the-election/
Liberal billionaire Tom Steyer has poured nearly $74 million into tomorrow’s midterm elections, more than any other donor who disclosed contributions. The former hedge fund manager from San Francisco pumped the vast majority of those funds — nearly $67 million — into his super PAC, NextGen Climate Action.
Steyer launched the group last year to back politicians who promise to tackle climate change. He’s supplied more than 80% of the super PAC ‘s funding, adding another $16 million to its coffers just three weeks before the election. NextGen Climate Action has spent $57 million to date, with the biggest sums going to oppose Senate bids of Republicans in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan and New Hampshire.


This post has been edited by Ted: Nov 10 2015, 09:52 PM
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akaCG
post Nov 14 2015, 09:59 PM
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The following, I suspect, will have some impact on the matters that this thread's debate questions seek to address:
QUOTE
...
Two men who French police are seeking to identify in connection with the Paris attacks registered as migrants with Greek authorities earlier this year, the Greek police confirmed on Saturday.
...
The Greek minister for citizen protection, Nikos Toskas, said in a statement that one of the men had been registered on the Greek island of Leros in October.
...
A Greek police source said the second man had also registered in Greece, with TV station Mega adding this was also on Leros in August.
...

Link: http://news.yahoo.com/two-men-linked-paris...-195255102.html

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AuthorMusician
post Nov 15 2015, 04:43 PM
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QUOTE(Ted @ Nov 10 2015, 05:51 PM) *
QUOTE
AM
Drought and big storms/flooding have been predicted since I started paying attention to the issue in the 1980s. Looks like what was predicted is coming to pass, or better, to roost like a flock of buzzards around a rotting carcass.

Whatever happens in Europe, if climate change is really driving the migration, will then be a testament to the shortsightedness of humanity


well first of all "climate change" has not affected Europe any more than the US. If you have been " paying attention to the issue in the 1980s" you would know that none of the prediction have come to pass.

It's not an issue of what's happening in Europe but in Syria and the ME in general, which is a lack of fresh water (aka drought) that might be driving the migration into Europe. What's happening in Europe is dealing with the migration that is coming, primarily, from Syria.

Your opinion on climate change is noted. Not very many who study climate agree with it, so credibility is lacking. The US military has taken climate change seriously, and that has a lot more credibility.
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Ted
post Nov 15 2015, 09:48 PM
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QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Nov 15 2015, 12:43 PM) *
QUOTE(Ted @ Nov 10 2015, 05:51 PM) *
QUOTE
AM
Drought and big storms/flooding have been predicted since I started paying attention to the issue in the 1980s. Looks like what was predicted is coming to pass, or better, to roost like a flock of buzzards around a rotting carcass.

Whatever happens in Europe, if climate change is really driving the migration, will then be a testament to the shortsightedness of humanity


well first of all "climate change" has not affected Europe any more than the US. If you have been " paying attention to the issue in the 1980s" you would know that none of the prediction have come to pass.

It's not an issue of what's happening in Europe but in Syria and the ME in general, which is a lack of fresh water (aka drought) that might be driving the migration into Europe. What's happening in Europe is dealing with the migration that is coming, primarily, from Syria.

Your opinion on climate change is noted. Not very many who study climate agree with it, so credibility is lacking. The US military has taken climate change seriously, and that has a lot more credibility.

well even NOAA says things like the drought in Calif. is NOT related to climate change. and its not a question of denying that CO2 is a GHG its what effect it has on temperature and that is where the disagreement is. here is MIT Climatologist R. Lindzen on the sensitivity issue.

QUOTE
We estimate climate sensitivity from observations, using the deseasonalized fluctuations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the concurrent fluctuations in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing radiation from the ERBE (1985–1999) and CERES (2000–2008) satellite instruments. Distinct periods of warming and cooling in the SSTs were used to evaluate feedbacks. An earlier study (Lindzen and Choi, 2009) was subject to significant criticisms. The present paper is an expansion of the earlier paper where the various criticisms are taken into account. The present analysis accounts for the 72 day precession period for the ERBE satellite in a more appropriate manner than in the earlier paper. We develop a method to distinguish noise in the outgoing radiation as well as radiation changes that are forcing SST changes from those radiation changes that constitute feedbacks to changes in SST. We demonstrate that our new method does moderately well in distinguishing positive from negative feedbacks and in quantifying negative feedbacks. In contrast, we show that simple regression methods used by several existing papers generally exaggerate positive feedbacks and even show positive feedbacks when actual feedbacks are negative. We argue that feedbacks are largely concentrated in the tropics, and the tropical feedbacks can be adjusted to account for their impact on the globe as a whole. Indeed, we show that including all CERES data (not just from the tropics) leads to results similar to what are obtained for the tropics alone — though with more noise. We again find that the outgoing radiation resulting from SST fluctuations exceeds the zerofeedback response thus implying negative feedback. In contrast to this, the calculated TOA outgoing radiation fluxes from 11 atmospheric models forced by the observed SST are less than the zerofeedback response, consistent with the positive feedbacks that characterize these models. The results imply that the models are exaggerating climate sensitivity.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-011-0023-x



and btw the tragedy in Paris highlights exactly why we are better off with armed citizens that the EU. Some of the people who survived in the restaurants related that the gunmen casually reloaded and just kept mowing people down for 10 - 15 minutes . Then they got in their car and went somewhere else and did it again. could not have happened in the US. armed citizens would have shot back and killed some of them as a minimum.
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AuthorMusician
post Nov 17 2015, 08:07 PM
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QUOTE(Ted @ Nov 15 2015, 05:48 PM) *
and btw the tragedy in Paris highlights exactly why we are better off with armed citizens that the EU. Some of the people who survived in the restaurants related that the gunmen casually reloaded and just kept mowing people down for 10 - 15 minutes . Then they got in their car and went somewhere else and did it again. could not have happened in the US. armed citizens would have shot back and killed some of them as a minimum.

And yet climate change is an important enough reality that our military finds it necessary to take this into account, especially around the ME. Whether global warming is the driving factor becomes irrelevant to actually dealing with the consequences of climate change.

Some of the feedback I've seen regarding the Paris attacks mentioned the grain crisis that the ME has been dealing with, and how failed crops drove people from rural environments into cities. However, the prices of key grains, like wheat and corn, continued to increase, thereby making it harder than ever to live in the ME. An additional pressure on grain prices was a drought in the Black Sea area, a major breadbasket for the ME and Russia.

As for having more firearms in Paris, I doubt that would have mitigated the damage done. It didn't stop the massacre at the Colorado movie theater, for example. However, if Parisians had been armed, collateral deaths would have then been made possible due to bullets flying from more sources within confined places and the panic that results from bullets flying. It's impossible to tell from the sound of gunshots just who is shooting at whom.

Having more firearms hasn't reduced our experience of terrorism, but better security has. France and other countries that have been accepting refugees will likely slow the process down in order to catch terrorists before they can act, similar to how we do the vetting over two years. Ending the Syrian civil war would reduce the pressure to migrate and allow concentration on messing up ISIS, but I'm not sure that's possible. Maybe with Russian cooperation it could be pulled off, which could be coming after their airliner was bombed.

I've heard pundits criticizing France's war escalation and the Republican call for us to escalate too, pointing to the failure this has been shown to be. But say this happens, and the efforts break the backbone of ISIS. Where does that leave the refugees if drought remains a primary pressure to migrate? Perhaps the migration will slow down, but I doubt it will go away.
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post Nov 18 2015, 12:10 AM
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C. An increasingly violent unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

QUOTE
Syrian refugees arriving in Europe should form an army which can be sent back to ‘liberate’ their home country, instead of ‘drinking coffee in the cafes of Berlin’ while western soldiers face ISIS, the Polish foreign minister has said. – Daily Mail article


Did not the Poles have the Home Army and the Polish Armed Forces in the West? Did not the French have the Free French Forces? The 1st Czechoslovak Independent Armoured Brigade Group? The Jewish Brigade?

If their homeland is worth us fighting for….it’s worth them fighting for it.

This post has been edited by Dontreadonme: Nov 18 2015, 12:11 AM
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post Nov 19 2015, 05:02 AM
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QUOTE(Dontreadonme @ Nov 17 2015, 08:10 PM) *
C. An increasingly violent unraveling of the European "project" as a whole?

QUOTE
Syrian refugees arriving in Europe should form an army which can be sent back to ‘liberate’ their home country, instead of ‘drinking coffee in the cafes of Berlin’ while western soldiers face ISIS, the Polish foreign minister has said. – Daily Mail article


Did not the Poles have the Home Army and the Polish Armed Forces in the West? Did not the French have the Free French Forces? The 1st Czechoslovak Independent Armoured Brigade Group? The Jewish Brigade?

If their homeland is worth us fighting for….it’s worth them fighting for it.

That would be the revolutionary forces against the Syrian government. However, I've thought of another take on the matter:

Families have fled Syria, which reduces the chances of civilian deaths. ISIS has ticked off Russia and France, which has prompted these countries to take on the war against terrorism and the US to escalate. How else would Russia enjoin the effort? What else would have slapped French attention to it? Also, there's an effort to resolve the revolution, focusing on ISIS as the real threat, not only to Syria but the world in general.

I expect civil rights to be reduced while this effort takes place, similar to martial law during wartime. Maybe China will actually engage. How'd that happen? Another jetliner bombing?

And how does Saudi get on board, or should that country be considered to be an ally to ISIS? That might be enough to turn Arabian heads.

This post has been edited by AuthorMusician: Nov 19 2015, 05:08 AM
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