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> Shooting down of MH17, What should U.S. response be?
Hobbes
post Jul 17 2014, 11:16 PM
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Today, another Malaysian 777 crashed, in Ukraine. All evidence indicates it was shot down, over separatist eastern Ukraine. We don't yet know who shot it down, or what equipment they used. So, an investigation is necessary, but I don't think it too early to discuss what the response should be, as responses have already been happening.

Putin's statement
Obama's first comments.
1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
2. I'm not sure separatists would be capable of doing this. Even if they did capture a missile system from Ukraine, they probably wouldn't know how to use it (although this could be a symptom of that). So, the real possibility of Russians having done this, or being directly responsible for the people who did do it (many reports that they have brought mercenaries into the area). If Russia itself is directly implicated, how should the U.S. handle this?
3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?
4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?
5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?
6. Do you think the perpetrators of this will ever be brought to justice, as Malaysia is requesting? If so, will they be the real perpetrators, or just some scapegoats?

This post has been edited by Hobbes: Jul 18 2014, 12:06 AM
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Aquilla
post Jul 20 2014, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 20 2014, 07:56 AM) *
OMG, now I see it! The enormous wisdom of the shills has finally penetrated my poor brainwashed noggin. I am so ashamed of having voted for Obama twice that I will never, ever vote for him again.

That is my solemn promise to the world and our country, tis of thee.



I don't doubt that you voted for Obama twice. He is as delusional as you are. In your case, it's harmless, you just attempt to entertain us on a website. In his case, it's dangerous. He sees the world the way he wants it to be, but has no clue on how to make that "vision", blurred as it is, happen. He thinks that just by saying it he makes it true.

This is Obama's foreign policy

Aquilla
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Hobbes
post Jul 21 2014, 05:15 AM
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QUOTE(Trouble @ Jul 18 2014, 02:13 AM) *
As details emerge it will be easier to answer the questions. What is obvious is that American officials have been trying vigorously to become involved in Ukraine since the coup. The Russians have been trying to limit western support. This is beyond debate. Does shooting down a plane make that more or less likely? I think it would be more than fair to place a 2b question.


Actually, I believe American officials have been doing everything they can to stay uninvolved in Ukraine. They have been working from a distance, imposing sanctions, etc. Obama, just prior (I believe the morning of?) this incident imposed harsher sanctions. I'm ok with that, but it does beg the question as to whether or not they're working. I do believe this incident creates an excuse to get more involved if they (or their European allies) choose to, but it seems they still have little interest in that.
QUOTE
2b. Did the Poroshenko government or a faction inside of it fire on MH17?

I'd say the third question would be easiest to answer presently but is subject to revision.


At this point, that seems beyond question. I don't believe they did it on purpose (was there anyone on board they might have wanted to take out?), but clearly they are running from it as fast as possible. John Kerry earlier today stated that we KNOW that Russia provided the missile systems, that they have brought them back inside of Russia, and that one of them appears to be missing a missile. We also now have further intercepted phone calls indicating the Russia has issued an edict that nothing of any value from the plane wreckage ever make its way into Western hands. Personally, I find that interesting---what is the black box going to really say that would incriminate Russia, or anyone? At best, it might indicate where the plane was when hit, and which part of the plane was hit first. We probably already know the first from other data, and knowing the second says nothing about who fired the missile. BUT this is still very incriminating information. Although I think most realize that Russia has been very involved in the uprising in the Ukraine, they have also very vociferously denied any involvement. This makes their involvement, and the degree of it, much more apparent than Putin would like.

QUOTE
Were the pilots aware of restrictions over the airspace? American FAA policy is pretty clear.


The FAA is not the relevant party for international flights. That is the ICA (or some similar acronym) and they indicated flights there were fine. Just 90 seconds behind MH 17 was another flight, on the same path.

They quickly called all easter Ukraine restricted after this event.

QUOTE
Hopefully with additional information, we can more rigourously assess how the plane was downed as the plane was up pretty high for "rebel" equipment to hit.


Yes, it was. Which is why they were given Russian equipment.

-------------------

Given some of the information coming out, that this seems to have been done with equipment specifically supplied by Russian, almost certainly with Russian training (they are very sophisticated pieces of equipment, and this is an area that doesn't even have much refrigeration, or apparently even watches (most of the valuable belongings have been stolen, including money, watches, etc---one soldier joked in town about how everyone seemed to be sporting new watches today)...there is no way they would have any idea how to use this system without help. Interecepted phone calls clearly indicate that they were operating under the 'control' of Russia (indirect if not direct). Given this....how much should we hold Russia legally to blame? I wouldn't mind seeing a call for this. Not only is it justified, but it would force Putin on the defensive, which I can't really imagine how that would be a bad thing.
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Mrs. Pigpen
post Jul 21 2014, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(Hobbes @ Jul 21 2014, 01:15 AM) *
QUOTE(Trouble @ Jul 18 2014, 02:13 AM) *
As details emerge it will be easier to answer the questions. What is obvious is that American officials have been trying vigorously to become involved in Ukraine since the coup. The Russians have been trying to limit western support. This is beyond debate. Does shooting down a plane make that more or less likely? I think it would be more than fair to place a 2b question.


Actually, I believe American officials have been doing everything they can to stay uninvolved in Ukraine.


Agreed. The fact that the plane was Malaysian Air, with the recent missing plane, really fuels conspiracy theories. Especially in Russia. This is a part of the world where past experience relied on the surreptitious passage of bits of information....it was the only way to find the truth behind the Iron Curtain. Conspiracy theories run rampant.

I don't think there is much to be done here...aside from redirecting air traffic, investigating, writing an angry letter/saying an angry speech, and some sort of civil action against the offending state (Russia, assumably) to compensate the families of victims in some way.
Objectively and realistically, this is a warzone. I doubt that the rebels/freedom fighters/loyalists/whatever in Ukraine have more resources and equipment to collect intel than the US Navy had in 1988.

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AuthorMusician
post Jul 21 2014, 12:39 PM
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Not only is Putin in a world of hurt, his country's billionaires are shaking in their boots:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-20/r...-isolation.html

Nobody but Putin's inner circle believes that he isn't to blame. Well, maybe the rank-file Russians being fed nothing but propaganda from the state-run press. The Dutch lost the most people in the attack, and that country, along with the UK, is pushing for greater sanctions from the EU. One commentator in the article did say that Putin's actions have rolled back the clock to the 1980s, the height of the Cold War. Another worried that the Russian economy would collapse in six months.

On top of this, Russia has risked becoming a terrorist state like Libya was after the airliner bombing attributed to that country.

Looks to me that Putin isn't long for this world. Either he will voluntarily retire or be forcibly retired via a strange and mysterious accident. You don't mess with billionaires' money without serious repercussions. That would be a positive outcome.

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akaCG
post Jul 21 2014, 01:06 PM
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QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Jul 21 2014, 08:11 AM) *
...
... The fact that the plane was Malaysian Air, with the recent missing plane, really fuels conspiracy theories. Especially in Russia. This is a part of the world where past experience relied on the surreptitious passage of bits of information....it was the only way to find the truth behind the Iron Curtain. Conspiracy theories run rampant.
...

Yup:
QUOTE
...
Did you know Malaysia Air Flight 17 was full of corpses when it took off from Amsterdam? Did you know that, for some darkly inexplicable reason, on July 17, MH17 moved off the standard flight path that it had taken every time before, and moved north, toward rebel-held areas outside Donetsk? Or that the dispatchers summoned the plane lower just before the crash? Or that the plane had been recently reinsured? Or that the Ukrainian army has air defense systems in the area? Or that it was the result of the Ukrainian military mistaking MH 17 for Putin’s presidential plane, which looks strangely similar?

Did you know that the crash of MH17 was all part of an American conspiracy to provoke a big war with Russia?

Well, it’s all true—at least if you live in Russia, because this is the Malaysia Airlines crash story that you’d be seeing.
...
... The best of the bunch is, of course, an elaborate one: MH17 is actually MH370, that Malaysia Airlines flight that disappeared into the Indian Ocean. According to this theory, the plane didn’t disappear at all, “it was taken to an American military base, Diego-Garcia.”
...
Floriana Fossato, a longtime scholar of Russian media, says that this, coupled with the media’s conscious use of the Soviet language of crisis—“traitors,” “fascists,” “fifth columns”—quickly brings to the surface the psychological demons of a society massively traumatized by the 20th century, traumas that society has never adequately addressed. The result, she says, is a kind of collective PTSD-meets-Stockholm Syndrome.
...

Link: http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

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Hobbes
post Jul 21 2014, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Jul 21 2014, 07:11 AM) *
I don't think there is much to be done here...aside from redirecting air traffic, investigating, writing an angry letter/saying an angry speech, and some sort of civil action against the offending state (Russia, assumably) to compensate the families of victims in some way.
Objectively and realistically, this is a warzone. I doubt that the rebels/freedom fighters/loyalists/whatever in Ukraine have more resources and equipment to collect intel than the US Navy had in 1988.


Just for this incident, agree. But it creates an opportunity to put more pressure on Putin over his other actions, some of which led directly to this incident. Obama seems to be doing this, now that we have some direct evidence of their involvement. This is a good thing, I think.

QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 21 2014, 07:39 AM) *
Nobody but Putin's inner circle believes that he isn't to blame. Well, maybe the rank-file Russians being fed nothing but propaganda from the state-run press. The Dutch lost the most people in the attack, and that country, along with the UK, is pushing for greater sanctions from the EU. One commentator in the article did say that Putin's actions have rolled back the clock to the 1980s, the height of the Cold War. Another worried that the Russian economy would collapse in six months.

On top of this, Russia has risked becoming a terrorist state like Libya was after the airliner bombing attributed to that country.


Looks to me that Putin isn't long for this world. Either he will voluntarily retire or be forcibly retired via a strange and mysterious accident. You don't mess with billionaires' money without serious repercussions. That would be a positive outcome.


Yep! And I'll bet Putin's inner circle knows better than anyone the various lies he tells....they're just not going to say a thing about it.

FWIW....I think they are just making matters worse for themselves hiding all the 'evidence'. I can't imagine anything on the black box that is going to say who fired the missile that brought the plane down. Probably not even anything indicating for sure it was a missile. It might indicate where the missile struck (ie, what systems malfunctioned first).

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Hobbes
post Jul 22 2014, 05:57 PM
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I also find it pretty comical that Russia is trying to say that it might have been Ukraine firing BUK missiles that downed this plane. What would Ukraine have needed BUK missiles there for? The separatists don't have any planes, do they? Especially not anything requiring something like this to shoot down. So, the only reason Ukraine would need such a system was to shoot down RUSSIAN planes in the area, which Putin denies having there---Putin is actually incriminating himself with this fabrication.

I think AM might be right...Putin's end may be coming. He's unraveling....
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Gray Seal
post Jul 22 2014, 06:07 PM
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I am not sure what you are saying, Hobbes. I heard on The Independents that Ukraine has 60 of these BUK units. Are you saying it is impossible that Ukraine would use one of them?

It seems to me that there are plenty of idiots around. Idiocy is not exclusive to separatists, Russian, or any region you could name. Some idiot in control of one of the Ukraine BUK units could have fired a missile.

I do not know of any political region for which I have confidence to tell the truth. We do know it was a region at war which was firing missiles to take down planes before the Malaysian Airline incident. Airlines are getting smarter a bit late but flying in such a region is hazardous.
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Hobbes
post Jul 22 2014, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 01:07 PM) *
I am not sure what you are saying, Hobbes. I heard on The Independents that Ukraine has 60 of these BUK units. Are you saying it is impossible that Ukraine would use one of them?


If they used them....what were they using them against? The separatists have no air force...the only thing they could have been there for was to shoot down RUSSIAN planes, which Russia denies are there.

QUOTE
It seems to me that there are plenty of idiots around. Idiocy is not exclusive to separatists, Russian, or any region you could name. Some idiot in control of one of the Ukraine BUK units could have fired a missile.


Again, at what? Why would they even be manning them, as there is no opposing air force they would be worried about.

So, my point is that the only reason Russia would even bring this up is that Putin knows he HAS been sending planes there, which he has denied. So his creation of this narrative for the MH17 incident actually implicates himself on something else.

FWIW...the U.S. has apparently confirmed that there were NO Ukraining BUK missile launchers any where near this area. Which makes sense...no reason for them to be there.
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Gray Seal
post Jul 22 2014, 08:40 PM
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I do not trust the United States. The United States is not a good source.

As to what Ukraine might have been shooting at, I believe a commercial airliner was struck by a missile.

I do not think it is likely that the facts will ever be iron clad known.
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Hobbes
post Jul 22 2014, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 03:40 PM) *
I do not trust the United States. The United States is not a good source.


The other source is Putin, who can't speak on this issue without issuing bald faced lies. Plus, what he says makes no sense, whereas what the U.S. is putting out does. But, if you aren't going to trust the U.S., or the West....who ARE you going to trust? Putin? Ukraine? The separatists? Those will be the only information sources we will have. And the separatists aren't going to say anything Putin doesn't tell them to say.

QUOTE
As to what Ukraine might have been shooting at, I believe a commercial airliner was struck by a missile.

I do not think it is likely that the facts will ever be iron clad known.


Why would Ukraine shoot at a commercial airliner???? Why would they even have missile launchers in the area?

Facts are never iron clad known. But what happened here seems pretty obvious. Russia gave the separatists some missile launchers, to help them in their fight against Ukraine, and they shot down this airliner with them.

Unless you believe Putin, and this was just a transport plane filled with corpses, masquerading as an airliner.

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Gray Seal
post Jul 22 2014, 10:45 PM
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Here is a source with different facts and questions.

What is obvious to you does not seem to be based upon anything other than choosing to pick a side based upon faith. It is faith which is not earned.

I do not believe either Putin or Ukraine or the United States. There is no need to be forced to pick one.

Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation? Why deploy them needlessly? These seem like good questions to me.

It is a quagmire. Sorting it out is not vital. It is important to not blindly believe governments which have not earned that trust. Such trust leads to support of bad decisions. We have done enough of that as voters here in the United States. It is time to quit being lenient.
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Hobbes
post Jul 23 2014, 03:17 AM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 05:45 PM) *
Here is a source with different facts and questions.

What is obvious to you does not seem to be based upon anything other than choosing to pick a side based upon faith. It is faith which is not earned.


No, it is obvious based on what transpired, the current situation, what is known about Russia's involvement in the eastern Ukraine, and the evidence at hand. I'm not picking a side....I'm looking at what the various sides are saying, and noting which ones are clearly covering up their tracks---which is incriminating in itself.

QUOTE
I do not believe either Putin or Ukraine or the United States. There is no need to be forced to pick one.


I get your point, but in this situation, yes, you are going to be forced to pick one, because they will be ouallnly information sources you have (along with Europe/the Netherlands). There isn't going to be an unfettered investigation. The evidence on who might have actually been involved is going to come from one of the above sources. As is any of the various radar/satellite data. So, the best we can do is look at what is presented, and judge for ourselves. So far, what the U.S. is saying makes sense. What Putin is putting forth not only doesn't make sense, but is either completely outlandish (the plane was full of corpses? Really?) or doesn't make sense (Ukrainian missiles did it, when they have no reason to even be in the area or anything to shoot at).

QUOTE
Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation? Why deploy them needlessly? These seem like good questions to me.


Fair enough...which is why I say what Putin is saying doesn't add up, whereas what I'm hearing from the U.S. does. For example, the info that the U.S. has verified that Ukraine didn't have any Buk launchers any where in that area. I would be skeptical on the surface....but there aren't any reasons they would have them there, and wouldn't want them captured and used against them, so it makes sense that they wouldn't be there. But Russia's initial story that it was Ukraine that shot the missile didn't make sense, for the reasons I stated---they had nothing to be shooting at, whereas the separatists did.

FWIW...if the U.S. were putting out a false story, there are other sources that could contradict it. We aren't the only ones with radar or satellites in the area. I think Obama is well aware of this, and understands that if they put out something false, they will lose whatever leverage they have against Putin on this. Putin, on the other hand, is either already neck deep in it, or doesn't care. His control over the media in his country is pretty absolute, so no other story but the ones he puts forth is going to get out.

QUOTE
It is a quagmire. Sorting it out is not vital. It is important to not blindly believe governments which have not earned that trust. Such trust leads to support of bad decisions. We have done enough of that as voters here in the United States. It is time to quit being lenient.


I get your point, and would normally agree with you. But, big difference between trust domestically and trust in foreign affairs. Obama has nothing to gain by putting forth a lie or something not backed up with evidence in this instance, and plenty to lose if contradictory evidence surfaces. If Russia had it, they would put it forth. So, no, I don't trust either party, and certainly skeptical of Ukrainian info, but that doesn't mean you can't see which side's story is adding up, and which sides isn't...or noting which side doesn't have much, if any, reason to lie, and which one does.
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Bikerdad
post Jul 23 2014, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 02:40 PM) *
I do not trust the United States. The United States is not a good source.

As to what Ukraine might have been shooting at, I believe a commercial airliner was struck by a missile.

I do not think it is likely that the facts will ever be iron clad known.

Again, you are dodging the question. What possible reason would the Ukrainians have had for shooting AT an aircraft overflying them, from WEST (i.e. friendly territory) to EAST? Especially given that the Ukrainians had tactical control over the airspace? To date, NO "separatist" air assets have been identified, claimed, or even hinted at. The claim that the Ukrainians shot it down makes as much sense as a claim that MH370 has actually been forced into a real world instantiation of Lost.

Sure, its possible, but stands as a amorphous blob of Jello in the face of Occam's Razor.


QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 04:45 PM) *
Here is a source with different facts and questions.

What is obvious to you does not seem to be based upon anything other than choosing to pick a side based upon faith. It is faith which is not earned.

I do not believe either Putin or Ukraine or the United States. There is no need to be forced to pick one.

Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation?

hmmm, perhaps because their neighbor is Russia?? Ukraine also has strategic bombers. They inherited both, as well as many other weapons, during the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. All military equipment, with the exception of nukes, became the property of whatever Republic nee country it was in when the dissolution took place.
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Mrs. Pigpen
post Jul 23 2014, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(Bikerdad @ Jul 23 2014, 04:23 AM) *
QUOTE
Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation?

hmmm, perhaps because their neighbor is Russia?? Ukraine also has strategic bombers. They inherited both, as well as many other weapons, during the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. All military equipment, with the exception of nukes, became the property of whatever Republic nee country it was in when the dissolution took place.


I was thinking the same. Furthermore, the Ukraine is a sovereign country, responsible for its own defense, and should have an air defense system. It would be odd in the extreme if they didn't.

Of the scenarios:
1. The Russian-backed separatists accidentally fired on a passenger plane, believing it to be a Ukrainian military plane.
2. The Ukrainian military fired on a passenger plane for PR points against Putin (which would require a massive coverup, to say the least).

The first is the most plausible by far. The second passes neither the reasonability test nor reasonable doubt standard.

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Hobbes
post Jul 23 2014, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Jul 23 2014, 07:26 AM) *
Of the scenarios:
1. The Russian-backed separatists accidentally fired on a passenger plane, believing it to be a Ukrainian military plane.
2. The Ukrainian military fired on a passenger plane for PR points against Putin (which would require a massive coverup, to say the least).

The first is the most plausible by far. The second passes neither the reasonability test nor reasonable doubt standard.


Which is what my point is. It's not that I inherently trust any side here to provide the unfiltered truth, but what one side is saying adds up, and what the other side is saying doesn't.
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Gray Seal
post Jul 23 2014, 03:11 PM
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I have less faith in the miscreants in leadership of Ukraine. I do think they are capable of mischief such as taking down a commercial craft and blaming the rebels.

The scenario of a mistaken firing of a missile does seem most likely. Most likely, not a slam dunk.

The United States has lots of information is could release to the public about the incident. Instead it is playing a blame game for political reasons. I do not appreciate nor agree with the politics. I am neither blind nor naive about shenanigans with the truth our administration is capable of in recent history whether it be Bush or a Obama.

There seems to be two sources: internet chat and Russian data. The absence of information from the United States is glaring.

There will be some information from the flight recorder soon. I doubt this black box data will make the picture clear.

If everyone is labeling the rebel accidental firing of a missile as the most likely scenario, I can understand that. If everyone is saying this is what happened and there is no reasonable doubt, I believe this to be prejudiced opinion and more driven such as a fanboi than actual data to back it up.

The rhetoric from the United States is predictable and disturbing. The militaristic attitude is disruptive to the world.

-------

Does the data showing a fighter jet in the near vicinity of MH-17 immediately before the tragedy give any of you pause? Maybe there was no BUK involved?

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Mrs. Pigpen
post Jul 23 2014, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 11:11 AM) *
There seems to be two sources: internet chat and Russian data. The absence of information from the United States is glaring.


The US will probably not release any information that would endanger (compromise, whatnot) evidence that might become necessary for trial in the future.

Even, hypothetically, if that weren't the case I'm sure there are a lot of checks and balances that have to be made for security reasons before that type of thing could be released.

This post has been edited by Mrs. Pigpen: Jul 23 2014, 03:31 PM
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Gray Seal
post Jul 23 2014, 03:30 PM
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Trial? What trial?

And if there is to be a trial, how do facts become damaged from public knowledge? Facts are suppose to be public knowledge.

Excuses, whatever they are, are lame, false, and attempted divergence.
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Mrs. Pigpen
post Jul 23 2014, 03:34 PM
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June 2003

Group: Moderators
Posts: 7,344
Member No.: 598
Joined: March-12-03

Gender: Female
Politics: Slightly Conservative
Party affiliation: Independent



QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 11:30 AM) *
Trial? What trial?

And if there is to be a trial, how do facts become damaged from public knowledge? Facts are suppose to be public knowledge.

Excuses, whatever they are, are lame, false, and attempted divergence.


You don't believe there will be any trial after this? There often are. Furthermore the investigation itself isn't finished. Facts before the end of an investigation are usually NOT public knowledge.

Even, hypothetically, if that weren't the case I'm sure there are a lot of checks and balances that have to be made for security reasons before such information could be released to the public.

I stand by what I said here, years ago.

This post has been edited by Mrs. Pigpen: Jul 23 2014, 03:40 PM
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