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> Romney going to Pennsylvania, Confidence or Desperation
Amlord
post Nov 2 2012, 01:10 PM
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Pundits have said for a long time that you can tell what a campaign thinks its chances are by where the candidate is in the final days of the election. Is the candidate trying to rally support in stronghold areas or are they in "enemy territory" looking to persuade voters in unlikely places.

Mitt Romney will be in Pennsylvania this weekend. No poll has shown Romney up in Pennsylvania but Romney has been gaining in the state for weeks. The Romney campaign recently bought $1 million in ad time in the state.

QUOTE
Mr. Romney’s appearance here on Sunday could be a crafty political move to seriously undercut President Obama, or it could be a sign of desperation. Either way, his visit represents the biggest jolt yet in a state that was until recently largely ignored in the race for the White House.

Over the last several days, with polls showing Mr. Obama’s edge in the state narrowing, Republicans have sprung into action and forced the Democrats to spend resources here that could have gone toward more competitive battleground states.


Questions for Debate:

Is Pennsylvania in play?

Is this move by Romney a sign of confidence or a sign of desperation?
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amf
post Nov 2 2012, 02:08 PM
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PA is only in play if the Republicans figure out an effective way to suppress the vote in Philly. Maybe they need to create a "New White Panthers" group there and then have the media play it up on CBS. whistling.gif

Maybe it's desperation... or maybe it's just dumb. Maybe he thinks this is his only chance to win, considering there aren't many paths right now with the way swing state polling is looking. Or maybe he's just trying to support the SuperPACs dumping money on the state, since he'll need them if he decides to run yet again in 4 years. Hard to figure why he thinks that a visit to Philly is going to help him in 3 days. Maybe if he did this 3 weeks ago, he'd have a chance. Not now.
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Amlord
post Nov 2 2012, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(amf @ Nov 2 2012, 10:08 AM) *
PA is only in play if the Republicans figure out an effective way to suppress the vote in Philly. Maybe they need to create a "New White Panthers" group there and then have the media play it up on CBS. whistling.gif

Maybe it's desperation... or maybe it's just dumb. Maybe he thinks this is his only chance to win, considering there aren't many paths right now with the way swing state polling is looking. Or maybe he's just trying to support the SuperPACs dumping money on the state, since he'll need them if he decides to run yet again in 4 years. Hard to figure why he thinks that a visit to Philly is going to help him in 3 days. Maybe if he did this 3 weeks ago, he'd have a chance. Not now.

Pennsylvania is an odd state. It has Republican statewide office holders -- governor and one Senator who was elected in 2010 -- but hasn't voted for the Republican candidate for President since the first Bush.

If statewide Republican office holders can be elected, why not a Presidential candidate, especially if the Obama campaign has neglected the grass roots there. I don't know that he has but it is a possibility.

The thing about Pennsylvania is that it hasn't been flooded with negative ads about Romney. The economy is self-descriptive -- everyone knows that it is sluggish. Romney doesn't need to advertise that fact. A few change-oriented ads by Romney could make a big difference.
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Paladin Elspeth
post Nov 2 2012, 04:33 PM
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Is Pennsylvania in play?

Who really knows? Perhaps the Romney campaign's ground forces have picked up on some data we might not know about Pennsylvania. I wish Wertz were here to give us some insight on his fellow Pennsylvanians...

Is this move by Romney a sign of confidence or a sign of desperation?

Confidence versus desperation? Aren't both sides feeling a little desperate at this point despite their public faces?

It's a sign that Romney still wants to win the Presidency. Both candidates are obviously trying to pick up more votes before Tuesday. While I wonder who could still possibly be undecided who is actually going to vote, one thing is for certain: If they sit on the sidelines these last few days and let the clock run out, they can't expect to score more votes.

Confidence might be demonstrated by not campaigning at this point. Obviously neither candidate is willing to demonstrate that much confidence at the cost of the election.

Romney's campaign really stumbled the other day with that lie about the Jeep Corporation. Pennsylvania is part of the rust belt, I believe. Maybe he wants to reinforce his scare tactic there.

This post has been edited by Paladin Elspeth: Nov 2 2012, 04:35 PM
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WillyPete
post Nov 2 2012, 05:33 PM
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Is Pennsylvania in play?

If it is, much of the nation is still in play. RCP has Pennsylvania as a +4.6 average for Obama. The last Romney-leaning poll there was in February.

<Link>


Is this move by Romney a sign of confidence or a sign of desperation?

If Romney thinks this is a winning move, then he must believe or hope that the polls all over are wrong or misleading (not impossible, but I don't buy it.)

Depending on support for which one has no evidence is not an act of confidence.

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amf
post Nov 2 2012, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE
If statewide Republican office holders can be elected, why not a Presidential candidate, especially if the Obama campaign has neglected the grass roots there. I don't know that he has but it is a possibility.


2010 was very much a Republican year. Republican governors elected in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, all of which are polling toward Obama this year. I don't think 2010 is the model you need to look at for this year other than using it to conclude "it's possible". It was always possible. The question is whether Romney can move the needle 6 points in 3 days on one visit. I don't see how that happens. Therefore, I can't figure out the point of the visit.
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