Posted by: TedN5 May 29 2006, 06:57 PM
The CIA expert on al Qaeda, Michael Scheuer, writing as "Anonymous" when he wrote Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War on Terror in 2004, predicted that the West would be unable to establish any government in Afghanistan other than a weak Islamist one and to attempt to do otherwise was folly. Since the invasion elections have been held but the central government's authority doesn't extend much beyond Kabul where foreign troops support its control. Much of the country has remained dominated by war lords and the growing of poppies and production of heroin for export has flourished. In the Southeast the Taliban has reemerged as a significant force. Now a major armed riot has taken place in Kabul directed at Americans and foreigners generally.
Today in Kabul the veneer of national progress was ripped off, leaving several Afghanis dead and many more wounded and sending this capital city into a lockdown. Four and a half years after the US-led military offensive successfully overthrew the Taliban government, which was protecting Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda, Kabul has erupted in gunfire, leaving citizens shattered and their confidence in the future shaken.
(See this http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/052906Y.shtml).
The insurgency has intensified each year since 2001. Many analysts and even some officials agree widespread government corruption is a root cause, causing disillusion among local people and hamstringing development.
(See http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060528/wl_sthasia_afp/afghanistanattackspolitics).1. Is Afghanistan slipping back into a failed state status?2. Was it a strategic blunder not to stabilize Afghanistan before committing forces elsewhere? 3. What is the best course of action from the point forward?
Posted by: VDemosthenes May 29 2006, 07:08 PM
QUOTE(TedN5 @ May 29 2006, 01:57 PM)
1. Is Afghanistan slipping back into a failed state status?2. Was it a strategic blunder not to stabilize Afghanistan before committing forces elsewhere? 3. What is the best course of action from the point forward?
1.) Can something slip back into something when it was never out of it? Afghanistan has always been unstable and this latest piece of news sheds just how unstable it actually is. Though one nation, the government only has so much control over the people. That alone is a hallmark of failure.
2.) Whether strategic or not, I think history is going to remember it as a blunder. We did the same thing to Afghanistan we have done in Iraq- remove the leader(s) and change the government. President Bush may have done this as a model to judge what success in Iraq would take, but quite honestly I doubt he really is that smart.
3.) Pulling troops from other assignments. Make our military installations around the globe operational on minimal or volunteer power and redeploy the thousands of troops in countries like Germany and Japan to Iraq or Afghanistan. It is counterproductive for terrorists to be profiting in other portions of an occupied nation, so we may as well just go in and put troops there to reduce that threat.