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akaCG
post Oct 7 2012, 08:00 PM
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One month is a long time. There are still 3 debates left, one more unemployment number due, the geopolitical situation is quite fluid, and there's always the customary "October Surprise" (or will there be more than one?) to consider.

But that's what makes this more fun. So, ...

1. What will be the Obama/Romney popular vote split?

2. What will be the Obama/Romney Electoral College vote split?

3. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. Senate composition?

4. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. House composition?

Bonus question:

At what time (Eastern) will the Presidential Election be called?



My predictions:

1. Obama 47%, Romney 52%

2. Obama 236, Romney 302

3. Dems 50, Reps 50

4. Dems 199, Reps 236

Bonus: 11:45 PM Eastern

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akaCG
post Oct 12 2012, 03:20 AM
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So now that the Biden/Ryan debate is over, ...

Is anyone else here on ad.gif ready to have some fun predicting how this election is gonna turn out at the Presidential and Congressional levels?

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Amlord
post Oct 12 2012, 03:54 AM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Oct 11 2012, 11:20 PM) *
So now that the Biden/Ryan debate is over, ...

Is anyone else here on ad.gif ready to have some fun predicting how this election is gonna turn out at the Presidential and Congressional levels?

Magic Eight Ball says "Not At This Time". It's way too early to predict that Romney is going to win.
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akaCG
post Oct 12 2012, 04:10 AM
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QUOTE(Amlord @ Oct 11 2012, 11:54 PM) *
QUOTE(akaCG @ Oct 11 2012, 11:20 PM) *
So now that the Biden/Ryan debate is over, ...

Is anyone else here on ad.gif ready to have some fun predicting how this election is gonna turn out at the Presidential and Congressional levels?

Magic Eight Ball says "Not At This Time". It's way too early to predict that Romney is going to win.

This thread doesn't have a "Romney is going to win" requirement.

This thread has a ...

1. What will be the Obama/Romney popular vote split?

2. What will be the Obama/Romney Electoral College vote split?

3. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. Senate composition?

4. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. House composition?


Bonus question:

At what time (Eastern) will the Presidential Election be called?

... requirement.

Anyone else wanna play?

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Eeyore
post Oct 12 2012, 12:41 PM
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I think Obama will win. But his coattails will be short. He had big MO and he hemmed and haw it away at the first debate.

Elections

President Obama 294, Romney 244
Senate Dems +1 52-46
House Dems +2 195-240
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AuthorMusician
post Oct 13 2012, 10:46 AM
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QUOTE(Amlord @ Oct 11 2012, 11:54 PM) *
QUOTE(akaCG @ Oct 11 2012, 11:20 PM) *
So now that the Biden/Ryan debate is over, ...

Is anyone else here on ad.gif ready to have some fun predicting how this election is gonna turn out at the Presidential and Congressional levels?

Magic Eight Ball says "Not At This Time". It's way too early to predict that Romney is going to win.


My crystal ball has gone cloudy as well. The Tarot keep telling me to stop bothering the spirits with trivia. I don't drink tea, so oh well, and checking out the entrails of a sacrificial goat is just, ah, grotty.

Also illegal, I'm pretty sure.

So, what number do I see? Er, 300 ECVs for Obama. The rest is just dust in the wind.
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Ted
post Oct 18 2012, 07:09 PM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Oct 7 2012, 04:00 PM) *
One month is a long time. There are still 3 debates left, one more unemployment number due, the geopolitical situation is quite fluid, and there's always the customary "October Surprise" (or will there be more than one?) to consider.

But that's what makes this more fun. So, ...

1. What will be the Obama/Romney popular vote split?

2. What will be the Obama/Romney Electoral College vote split?

3. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. Senate composition?

4. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. House composition?

Bonus question:

At what time (Eastern) will the Presidential Election be called?




Bonus: 11:45 PM Eastern


My predictions:

1. Obama 46%, Romney 53%

2. Obama 228, Romney 311

3. Dems 49, Reps 51

4. Dems 196, Reps 239
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DCjumper
post Oct 19 2012, 11:38 AM
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As we're now closer to the finish line, with less than a month to go, I am going to make my calls. I want to preface this by saying for as painful as it is, I have long-predicted Romney would lose in a close race, but despite the tightening, I do not see any real way he is going to win, on the assumption that their simply aren't enough undecideds to close the gap and that Obama's ground operation will prove too much in the end. It's going to be something of a late night, but not a good one for me. Here's my call:

1. What will be the Obama/Romney popular vote split?

Obama 51/Romney 48

2. What will be the Obama/Romney Electoral College vote split?

Obama 281/ Romney 257

3. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. Senate composition?

51 D/ 49 R (+1 R)

4. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. House composition?

D 169/ R 239

Bonus question:

At what time (Eastern) will the Presidential Election be called?

11:15 pm EST


In summary, all of the battlegrounds will show a closer margin of victory. Unlike last time, the president may sweat a bit, but we'll have a clear winner by the end of the night and it'll be him. My map has him losing CO, VA, FL, and NC, but able to hold on in NV, IA, and put the race away, albeit narrowly in OH, PA, MI and WI.

I've taken a lot of grief for my model from friends, but that's how I see the race ending. I'll be drowning my sorrows in beer most likely. See you there.
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akaCG
post Oct 23 2012, 03:15 PM
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Now that the last of the debates is behind us and there are only 2 weeks to go 'til Election Day, I thought I'd bump this thread and see if anybody else wishes to participate.

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net2007
post Oct 23 2012, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Oct 23 2012, 11:15 AM) *
Now that the last of the debates is behind us and there are only 2 weeks to go 'til Election Day, I thought I'd bump this thread and see if anybody else wishes to participate.


I think Romney will win and I don't come to that decision lightly. A month ago I had serious doubts and figured we'd be headed for another 4 years of Obama but read my last post here....

http://www.americasdebate.com/forums/index...#entry100014716


Actually I'll just repost the info I have that points to a Romney victory...

QUOTE
Romney is up in the polls for the most part and has just recently pulled ahead in the electoral college projection maps for the first time...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ollege_map.html

As it sits now this is a dead heat with Romney having a slight edge. However Ive also been reading, thanks to other posters here, and my own research, that polls are ever so slightly skewed to favor Obama. If true, this would mean that Romney has a larger lead than it would appear.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-575209...=2&tag=page

Keep in mind that this was written in September when Obama had a commanding lead....

QUOTE
Gillespie argued that pollsters' overstated predictions of Democratic voter turnout would explain why "Governor Romney could be tied or leading with independents in those polls and yet losing the net poll to President Obama."

Critics have also argued that in addition to oversampling Democrats, pollsters are undersampling people who might be sympathetic to Republicans.

"Everyone right now believes that the polls are biased to President Obama because of this kind of a sample," said conservative talk show host Hugh Hewitt in an interview earlier this month with Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. "I'll tell you what's on people's minds. I'd really love to hear you answer it, which is that was the height of the President Obama 'Hope and Change' movement. He was extraordinarily strong in November of 2008... Against that backdrop, what level would you become concerned as a professional pollster that you had oversampled Democrats?"


Based on this and other information a landslide victory for Romney is even predicted by some and the following was just one more hint that Romney has a good chance...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-21...pts-ROMNEY.html
QUOTE
Bad news Barack: Electoral College computer model that's correctly predicted presidential elections since 1980 shows big WIN for Romney

Forecast predicts loss for Obama with 218 votes versus 320 for Mitt Romney

University of Colorado model concludes all swing seats to vote Republican including Colorado, Ohio and Florida

Contrasts latest figures which predicts 282.6 votes for Obama and 255.4 for Romney

New poll shows slightly more Americans are expecting Obama to win in November



This computer model has predicted the results of eight consecutive presidential elections. That's promising news if you do support Romney. This data was collected back in June when Obama had the lead and not so many people were questioning Obama's chances. The fact that he is now ahead in both polls and electoral college predictions could indicate that this will come to fruition.

I still have doubts that it will be a landslide victory but Romney did what he needed to in the first debate and held his own in the third, although the second debate wasn't as good for him. This is going to boil down to campaigning techniques now, and Romney has a working one. If what I saw here in my hometown is anything like how he's campaigning in other states then this will boost him even further.



I have no idea what the spread will be but I think Romney will actually pull it off. Not sure of course but as long as there are no major game changes Im thinking Romney wins.

This post has been edited by net2007: Oct 23 2012, 03:59 PM
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Curmudgeon
post Oct 23 2012, 09:06 PM
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At what time (Eastern) will the Presidential Election be called?

In Michigan, polls will close officially at 8:00 PM, with those still standing in line allowed to vote. We have a four page (two pages, 2 sides) ballot to vote, so it will likely be around 10:00 PM before the polls are physically closed and the results are phoned in...

If the raw polling data I have entered today is at all actually reflective of what is to come, "Based on exit polling results" will likely be released before the voting is actually completed.
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Amlord
post Oct 24 2012, 09:13 PM
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A couple of interesting things I've heard/read.

First is Dick Morris (former Clinton advisor) who claims that Romney is going to rout Obama by 4-8% nationally and receive over 300 electoral votes. Seems crazy, but also in the realm of possibility.

Secondly, is this interesting poll: IBD/TPP Poll.

The poll has President Obama up by 2 points. However, only 82% of Obama 2008 voters are going to vote for Obama. Meanwhile, 5% of McCain voters will vote for Obama (switching parties).

Given the results of the 2008 elections (Obama 52.9%, McCain 45.7%) this would indicate a result this year of President Obama getting only 45.67% of the vote this year. A similar analysis for Romney (where 92% of McCain voters indicated they would vote for Romney and 9% of 2008 Obama voters voting for Romney) yields Romney with 46.8% of the vote. Note that this poll indicates that 7% of "Obama 2008" voters are undecided with only 2% of McCain voters undecided. Most analysts that I've seen indicate that undecided voters at this point in the race will break against the incumbent by at least 2 to 1. The best analogy I've heard on this is if you ask husbands "will you be married to your wife at this time next year?", those that answer "undecided" are they are really NOT happy with their wife and would change if given the chance.

So if we add 2/3rds of the 6.3% undecideds to Romney and 1/3 to the President, we would end up with 4.2% more for Romney and 2.1% more for Obama or a final result of:

Romney 51%
Obama 47.8%
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Amlord
post Oct 29 2012, 03:01 PM
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Here's a very detailed analysis of why

Obama is Toast.

QUOTE
The waterfront of analyzing all the factors that go into my conclusion here is too large to cover in one post, but the signs of Obama’s defeat are too clear now to ignore. Given all the available information – Romney’s lead among independents, the outlier nature of the 2008 turnout model, the elections held since 2008, the party ID surveys, the voter registration, early voting and absentee ballot data – I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote. He is toast.
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amf
post Oct 29 2012, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE
I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote.


Last I checked, he doesn't have to win "the national popular vote". All he has to do is win the Electoral College. And right now, he's positioned to take most of the swing states that are still remaining, including Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. He might get Florida, but maybe not. He won't get NC, and I don't think he really tried hard there, considering he hasn't been back since the convention. He might or might not get New Hampshire.

If he gets 0 votes in Texas and across the south, he could lose the popular vote by a lot and still win the election.

And redstate hates dissension or fact checking, so I wouldn't recommend trying to correct their mistake. wink2.gif
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Amlord
post Oct 29 2012, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE(amf @ Oct 29 2012, 11:17 AM) *
QUOTE
I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote.


Last I checked, he doesn't have to win "the national popular vote". All he has to do is win the Electoral College. And right now, he's positioned to take most of the swing states that are still remaining, including Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. He might get Florida, but maybe not. He won't get NC, and I don't think he really tried hard there, considering he hasn't been back since the convention. He might or might not get New Hampshire.

Yes, based upon 2008 election turnout models, the President has a slim lead in a lot of states. If the situation on the ground has changed -- less Democratic enthusiasm, more Independents voting for the President -- then the polling models may be flawed.
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amf
post Oct 29 2012, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE
Yes, based upon 2008 election turnout models, the President has a slim lead in a lot of states


I'm certainly not going to defend all the "likely voter" methodologies that sometimes feel like witchcraft. But most models I'm aware of incorporate the last two elections in an area, not just one that's four years old. So that would also include 2010, which wasn't exactly a watershed for Democrats. And I've read where some polls don't take into account people who have already voted, which also boggles the mind.

I think Nate Silver's predictions are going to be more accurate than anyone on RedState. Just sayin'.
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akaCG
post Oct 29 2012, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(amf @ Oct 29 2012, 11:17 AM) *
...
Last I checked, [Obama] doesn't have to win "the national popular vote". All he has to do is win the Electoral College. ...
...
... he could lose the popular vote by a lot and still win the election.
...

The last time a Presidential candidate lost the popular vote by more than 1% (let alone by "a lot") but won in the Electoral College was in ... 1876. And it took almost 4 months of intense Congressional wrangling/negotiations before the winner (Hayes) was declared, only 2 days before Inauguration Day (March 4, 1877).

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scubatim
post Oct 29 2012, 07:06 PM
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QUOTE(amf @ Oct 29 2012, 10:17 AM) *
QUOTE
I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote.


Last I checked, he doesn't have to win "the national popular vote". All he has to do is win the Electoral College. And right now, he's positioned to take most of the swing states that are still remaining, including Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. He might get Florida, but maybe not. He won't get NC, and I don't think he really tried hard there, considering he hasn't been back since the convention. He might or might not get New Hampshire.

If he gets 0 votes in Texas and across the south, he could lose the popular vote by a lot and still win the election.

And redstate hates dissension or fact checking, so I wouldn't recommend trying to correct their mistake. wink2.gif

Don't go throwing Iowa to President Obama just yet....the Des Moines Register has endorsed Romney....the first republican candidate for general election in 40 years. You may not put much stock into this rag, but plenty of Iowa voters do.

Besides, the races are too close in all of the battleground states to declare any real winner....especially since we are talking about polls and not actual votes.

In the middle of the summer this year I thought this race was Obama's to lose, but now we are a week out...I don't know anymore. I think Romney, though still the underdog and not leading in the necessary polls, has a real chance at winning the election. I am not swayed enough by him to vote for him, but I think it is very possible for him to win.
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AuthorMusician
post Oct 29 2012, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(scubatim @ Oct 29 2012, 03:06 PM) *
QUOTE(amf @ Oct 29 2012, 10:17 AM) *
QUOTE
I have to conclude that there is no remaining path at this late date for Obama to win the national popular vote.


Last I checked, he doesn't have to win "the national popular vote". All he has to do is win the Electoral College. And right now, he's positioned to take most of the swing states that are still remaining, including Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Iowa. He might get Florida, but maybe not. He won't get NC, and I don't think he really tried hard there, considering he hasn't been back since the convention. He might or might not get New Hampshire.

If he gets 0 votes in Texas and across the south, he could lose the popular vote by a lot and still win the election.

And redstate hates dissension or fact checking, so I wouldn't recommend trying to correct their mistake. wink2.gif

Don't go throwing Iowa to President Obama just yet....the Des Moines Register has endorsed Romney....the first republican candidate for general election in 40 years. You may not put much stock into this rag, but plenty of Iowa voters do.

Besides, the races are too close in all of the battleground states to declare any real winner....especially since we are talking about polls and not actual votes.

In the middle of the summer this year I thought this race was Obama's to lose, but now we are a week out...I don't know anymore. I think Romney, though still the underdog and not leading in the necessary polls, has a real chance at winning the election. I am not swayed enough by him to vote for him, but I think it is very possible for him to win.


Endorsements have been flying around in Colorado too, but I don't think any voters are swayed by them. It's just a thought, but the undecided probably don't read newspapers. Since there are 16 candidates for POTUS on the Colorado ballot, I suspect the undecided will experience panic attacks if voting in person and anxiety attacks if filling ballots out at home. Sixteen candidates! OMG, my pills, my pills!

AND there's a write-in slot.

Hurricane Sandy could play a major role on the East Coast, should evacuations and/or power outages impact voting in the final days. I'm not sure who that would be hurt or benefit among the candidates. That, and really nothing but questionable polls, leads me to predict:

I have no freaking idea. It'll be interesting. Might as well stay with my bid of 300 ECVs for Obama, since it's as good as anything.

Meanwhile in the freelance world, people are having a hard time keeping up with work out that way. Clients are taking cover and hoping for the best. Cats are getting soaked, and their owners are reporting it. NYC is eerily quiet.

Must be driving the campaigns bonkers, both of them.
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amf
post Oct 29 2012, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE
Hurricane Sandy could play a major role on the East Coast


It appears that the low pressure soon to be passing over New Jersey is sucking up all available campaign oxygen from the rest of the country. That only benefits whoever is in the lead today. However, if FEMA fails to do their job quickly and properly in the days after the storm, it'll reflect poorly on Obama and likely sway the election.
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