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> Will the Democrats fail to regain the White House, due to the “do noth, Democrats have the House majority, but they ain't using it.
Supposn
post May 26 2019, 02:12 AM
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Will the Democrats fail to regain the White House, due to the “do nothing House of Representatives”?

Madam Speaker, Congresswoman Pelosi, the task of managing the less manageable is a difficult challenge. Half of the 2019 session has passed and the Democratic House has not passed any meaningful populist legislation that discomforts U.S. Senate Republicans.

The Democratic Party will run a negative campaign while failing to pass a minimum wage rate gradually increased to achieve 125% of its February-1968 Consumer Price Index and thereafter retaining that CPI?
The Democratic majority will also have failed to pass a meaningful infrastructure bill?

When the Democratic Party enters the 2020 elections lacking a proud recent record, President Trump and his party may well prevail against the “do nothing Democratic House of Representatives".  President Truman successfully ran a similar campaign against a "do nothing Republican Congress".

Respectfully, Supposn
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AuthorMusician
post May 26 2019, 12:26 PM
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I fail to see the connection between the House and the Executive in which what the House does (or not) impacts who becomes the POTUS. Just because an argument has been used during campaigns gone by doesn't mean it actually worked or will work this time.

This time I'm pretty sure it'll be about getting rid of Trump. In a way, this means it'll be a wasted election cycle from the viewpoint of addressing issues. Trump is the issue. Whether or not he gets retired by way of the ballot box will shape the following election cycle.

Assuming there'll be one, that is. Right now I'm thinking there will be business as usual once Trump departs the Executive, but if he doesn't -- we will see.

This post has been edited by AuthorMusician: May 26 2019, 12:28 PM
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net2007
post May 31 2019, 03:13 AM
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QUOTE(Supposn @ May 25 2019, 09:12 PM) *
Will the Democrats fail to regain the White House, due to the “do nothing House of Representatives”?

Madam Speaker, Congresswoman Pelosi, the task of managing the less manageable is a difficult challenge. Half of the 2019 session has passed and the Democratic House has not passed any meaningful populist legislation that discomforts U.S. Senate Republicans.

The Democratic Party will run a negative campaign while failing to pass a minimum wage rate gradually increased to achieve 125% of its February-1968 Consumer Price Index and thereafter retaining that CPI?
The Democratic majority will also have failed to pass a meaningful infrastructure bill?

When the Democratic Party enters the 2020 elections lacking a proud recent record, President Trump and his party may well prevail against the “do nothing Democratic House of Representatives".  President Truman successfully ran a similar campaign against a "do nothing Republican Congress".

Respectfully, Supposn


Good question, I'll give you the details that I know of and try to make this worth a read.

If you ask me, Trump will probably be re-elected, or at least I'll argue that his chances are likely a little better than 50% but a second Trump term is by no means a given, it's very early. It's even less likely that Trump will get booted out of office by way of impeachment and this is one of the primary factors that's hurting Democrats. I've been trying to get that message out for almost 2 years. The biggest problem for those who want Trump impeached is that it takes a 2/3rds supermajority vote in the Senate to oust a president and there aren't enough Democrats to get the votes needed. If impeachment passes in the House by a simple majority, it would then be kicked to the Senate where they'd have to get 67 votes total to convict Trump. Democrats don't even have a majority of 51 in the Senate so they probably do get "nothing" done when they focus on impeachment.

Additionally, even if they end up finding proof of a crime it still wouldn't be easy to boot Trump by impeaching him. Given that there was DNA evidence that Bill Clinton was guilty of sexual misconduct and he was caught lying under oath which was a verifiable crime yet none of that mattered, it's clear that impeachment will be an extremely difficult process. In the 90's the impeachment bar was set very high so unless Trump is guilty of more than a white collar crime or a Clinton level crime, Republicans would be unlikely to hold Trump up to standards that some prominent Democrats haven't met.

Also, Democrats like Nancy Pelosi who understand that the impeachment process is likely to backfire seem unaware that you don't have to go to impeachment proceedings to be guilty of overreach and based on the information I've come across, many Americans feel they've already gone too far.

To demonstrate just one of the ways they're playing games and hurting their own cause lets consider what happened yesterday. Mueller gave a brief rehash of his report which seemed a little redundant, he mentioned that he couldn't have indicted a sitting president which is a fact that the media should have been focusing on much earlier to prepare their viewers. Now that it's become more evident that there isn't sufficient evidence against Trump, they've suddenly fallen back on the argument that Mueller couldn't have indicted Trump anyway. They take it a step further by speculating that Mueller would have indicted Trump if he could have although Mueller didn't specifically say that. What they're leaving out this time is that an inability to indict a sitting president doesn't mean that the Mueller team couldn't have used more conclusive language in regards to their findings. In the 90's Kenneth Starrs report had 11 instances where they found that Bill Clinton was "guilty", several of which were on the topic of obstruction...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/201...was_guilty.html

Not only was Mueller vague where it mattered the most, he passed off the issue of obstruction to Bill Barr who had to take the heat for making a determination and now Mueller wants to disappear. He probably doesn't want to testify before Congress because he doesn't want to be pressured by Democrats to say that Trump was guilty of a crime in a situation where he could face legal consequences of his own if he embellishes and he certainly doesn't want to be grilled by Republicans who will press him on the objectivity of his team.

I could go on and on but the point is that many Democrats feel that yesterday was substantial and that there's enough evidence to impeach Trump. Whether or not they move to impeach, many will try to keep the focus on investigations and do so regardless of the massive holes in their theories. Polling data on this topic doesn't look great for Democrats so I think that this whole ordeal will hurt them in 2020.

Here are some other top factors that could work against Democrats in 2020...


1.

It's hard to vote a president out of office after only 4 years, the last time that a president didn't win a second term was with Bush Sr. almost 30 years ago so that alone works in Trump's favor. They even use incumbency as a positive factor in some election prediction models.

2.

It's extremely easy for Trump to get publicity, everybody that I've seen in the News Media mentions him regularly. You could say that it's because he's president but that would ignore the massive coverage he got in 2016. Although some of it's not positive, Trump has a way of attracting attention and that gives him a head start when it comes to getting his message out.

3.

I've been watching Trump's approval rating closely and through a lot of his presidency, his approval rating has either been better than what it was when he was elected or similar if you look at poll averages. In fact, his approval rating has often been either close to Obama's approval rating during his first term and at some points even a little better than Obama's. Polls aren't everything and his approval rating could very well get much worse but here's the thing, he's been attacked more than any other American president in modern history and sometimes justifiably attacked yet he's weathered those attacks.

With that said, it's seeming less likely by the day that Trump will lose his base of support. Again, polls can be off but when they are off during a presidential election, it's often because the numbers showed that the Democratic candidate was doing better than they actually were. For example, this also happened when Bush Jr. ran against John Kerry. Kerry was ahead in the polls but lost both the electoral and popular vote.

4.

This one is interesting, I'm not the only one suggesting that Trump has a decent chance of being re-elected, multiple election forecasting models are suggesting the same thing. The Fair Model was one of the only forecasting models that called the 2016 election, it had Trump at 54%. Trump didn't come in at 54% but he did pull off a victory and the fair model also predicted two Obama victories. Now the same exact forecast model places Trump at 56% so not only is it still predicting a Trump victory, it has him winning by a larger margin. That says nothing of the fact that there are now more forecasting models which suggest Trump is doing well than there were in 2016. If the election were held today, there's little chance that Trump would lose but he still has to maintain his numbers for over a year. Primarily what these numbers demonstrate is that the Democrats are currently lagging behind and have an uphill climb ahead of them....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/27/opinion/...0-tailwind.html

QUOTE
It’s worth noting that the Fair model is hardly alone in its forecast. Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them. Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College.



5. (the most significant factor)

I don't hold the opinion that Trump hasn't done anything to earn some of the support he has, the economy is good, ISIS is devastated, and he's fulfilled promises like cutting regulations. If this is still the case next year then all of that should help him in 2020 but Trump also makes a lot of mistakes, has a foul mouth, and lies. He probably shouldn't be as popular as he is but he holds his own which has confused many Americans and has led some on the left to come up with a whole host of theories, many of which are a direct attack on his supporters. The way I see it, a huge factor in Trump maintaining his support is the Democratic party so this will answer your question directly. I don't think Democrats are doing enough and Congress is indeed part of the problem.

I'm not saying that this applies to all Democrats, I think it's primarily the fault of the leadership in the Democratic party but so much has gone wrong, exceptionally fast in that party. The mistakes Democrats are making should be addressed and Democrats should be the first to want to address them but they don't do this nearly as much as they should. Some Democrats in office come across as if they don't even understand that they are making mistakes. In my lifetime, I've never seen so much division, chaos, and dysfunction as I do right now. They want so badly for the public to view Trump that way, which admittingly many do but unfortunately for Democrats, many Americans also view their party in a similar way and that muddies the waters a great deal.

Think about it, do you believe that most Americans outside of the Democratic party look at someone like Maxine Waters and believe that she's vastly less divisive than Trump? I ask a similar question about Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, do many people outside of loyalist to the Democratic party look at someone like Cortez yet still believe that Trump is alone in making idiotic statements? Also, Bill Barr and Brett Kavanaugh were widely considered PG in the tone they set and uncontroversial for decades up until the left interpreted them as a threat to their causes. Many Democrats words and actions against those men could easily be considered mean spirited and unfair considering how they treat their own when there's a controversy.

How Americans interpret politicians does vary but I do know through both polling and testimonies that many Americans are frustrated at both Democrats and Republicans. That's evident in neither party dominating for very long and precisely why Democrats haven't been able to force Trump into irrelevancy. It's also a primary factor that contributed to their loss in 2016, they're not widely viewed as the moral arbiters they often portray themselves as, no more than any other party at least.

The best thing Trump has going for him is that Democrats aren't changing course where it matters the most. It's said that in all walks of life that it's smart to take your opponents seriously but Democrats often don't take Trump seriously. That's not to say that there aren't many Democrats who take Trump seriously in the sense that they believe he's dangerous as they put endless pressure on him but they're fighting their own perception of Trump rather than being objective and fighting Trump himself. Taking an opponent seriously means getting to know them, it means considering both the good and bad aspects of their character and policies. In other words, it means getting as accurate a picture as possible. Finding out why others support your opponent is also important, all of that is essential in developing an effective counter-strategy. Many Democrats are still focusing on trying to convince the public that Trump didn't win legitimately in 2016 so I think they're distracted and not addressing policy or the corruption on their end nearly enough to make a difference.

________

It's too early to make a 2020 prediction with a high degree of confidence. Trump frequently shoots himself in the foot as well so a lot of this depends on who's punished at the polls more in 2020 for doing idiotic things. As a footnote, Trump does have factors that are working against him. For example, some Democrats probably didn't show up to vote in 2016 because they figured Trump would lose. I'm assuming that a portion of those voters won't make that mistake again and will go vote but will Democrats boost their turnout enough to win? Turnout will play a big role so we'll see how this plays out, Democrats usually have something up their sleeve to push back.

This post has been edited by net2007: May 31 2019, 03:21 AM
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