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> POTUS Impeachment Watch 2018 . . . ?, The kind that uses eyes, calendars and chronometers
AuthorMusician
post Feb 12 2018, 04:26 PM
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I suppose the topic of impeachment of the current POTUS started a microsecond after it became clear he had won the Electoral College but lost the citizens' vote by around three million. It could have started earlier, but now it's looking so bad that removal from office is actually in the best interests of the nation, a matter of national security -- or so it seems.

Here's the guy who predicted a Trump win and also predicts his impeachment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGd7h-Tpy7E

As Lichtman points out, a mathematical model can't be constructed, which he used to predict the EC win, because the event of impeachment hasn't occurred enough times in USA history. So, what do we watch and how long will it take -- if it indeed is to happen?

Lichtman says it may take a lot longer than a lot of citizens want, but will it be into Trump's second term as it was for Clinton and Nixon?

Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?
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entspeak
post Feb 12 2018, 04:55 PM
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Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

I€™m not sure he will be.

When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

It has become apparent that he will only be impeached if Democrats take control of the House. The bar for impeachment, oddly enough seems to be higher for Republicans than it has been in the past. (I say €œoddly€ with a bit of my tongue in my cheek because we all know why that really is - partisan hypocrisy.)

If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

Again, this depends on who controls the Senate. While I think the Republicans in the Senate may be more inclined to remove him (there appears to be little love lost there), so long as they have control, I don€™t believe enough Republicans would vote for removal.

If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

It€™ll be rough and the divide will cement itself in a way. Though, the size of the divide may not be as great as some would think. I think the rest of the world would see it as democracy in action.

If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

This is a more difficult question for me to answer, I honestly don€™t know. I€™d like to think this would right itself as it has in the past.

On a technical note, I’m sad to see that this site is not iPhone friendly when it comes to fonts.

This post has been edited by entspeak: Feb 12 2018, 04:58 PM
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AuthorMusician
post Feb 13 2018, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(entspeak @ Feb 12 2018, 12:55 PM) *
Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

I€™m not sure he will be.

It sometimes looks like impeachment will fizzle out to me as well, but then I look at what President Trump proposes, and I have renewed faith that our brand of a democratic republic has enough going for it that a bad POTUS will indeed be sent packing. By bad, I mean dangerous in the sense of letting a child play with a loaded pistol. Except the cartridges have nuclear tips. Nobody wins anything if the gun fires.
QUOTE
When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

It has become apparent that he will only be impeached if Democrats take control of the House. The bar for impeachment, oddly enough seems to be higher for Republicans than it has been in the past. (I say €œoddly€ with a bit of my tongue in my cheek because we all know why that really is - partisan hypocrisy.)

So sometime in the spring of 2019? I'm thinking it will be earlier, before the midterms in November. That's because the entire House is up for grabs, and not taking action on impeachment before then will ensure a Democratic House. It will also increase the possibility of a Democratic Senate, and that will pretty much mean resignation by Trump, pardon by Pence, and another Democrat in the White House come January of 2021.

But more so, it'll mark the end of the Republican Party as being at all useful for the powers behind the public officials. There's so much at risk that impeachment has to happen for party self-preservation.

I'm also thinking that the economy is about to take a nosedive before the midterms, which is very bad for incumbents. However, an economic downturn, even if it's somehow spun up to be Obama's and/or HRC's fault, won't be as influential as President Trump's daily exercises in absurdity.
QUOTE
If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

Again, this depends on who controls the Senate. While I think the Republicans in the Senate may be more inclined to remove him (there appears to be little love lost there), so long as they have control, I don€™t believe enough Republicans would vote for removal.

I'm pretty certain that the vote will be a simple majority, and the Republicans don't have enough seats to ensure the vote. There will be defectors, and I'm thinking around 20 of them.

There will be those Senators who are seeking reelection in November, and I don't see the POTUS as being at all beneficial to their cause. However, sending Trump packing could very well be the thing that keeps the Senate Republican, and Pence would be, if not beneficial, then a whole lot less threatening.

He'd have to hold off on pardoning Trump until after the midterms, so that's another problem -- a Republican former POTUS spending slammer time during election season -- very bad optics there.
QUOTE
If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

It€™ll be rough and the divide will cement itself in a way. Though, the size of the divide may not be as great as some would think. I think the rest of the world would see it as democracy in action.

I can hear Trump now, performing as a disgraced former POTUS, claiming that his impeachment and removal from office actually brought the country together. And for once, I'll give him credit for the brag.

The nation will likely fully understand why the Electoral College is a really bad idea, one born from a rather shaky alliance of former colonies and a distrust of a largely uneducated populace. I am of course thinking about conditions as they were in the 18th century. Today, things are so different as to be unimaginable during the Constitutional Convention. The time will have finally arrived for that piece of work to be eliminated via constitutional amendment.

The rest of the free world will be overjoyed that the USA, even with its strange form of government that allows minority presidents, recovered its balance after checking the power of the Executive. The world's little dictators will be bummed out, the poor dears.
QUOTE
If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

This is a more difficult question for me to answer, I honestly don€™t know. I€™d like to think this would right itself as it has in the past.

On a technical note, I’m sad to see that this site is not iPhone friendly when it comes to fonts.

Apple fonts don't work well on non-Apple platforms by design. It's been like this all along. We're all supposed to get sick of it and abandon Windows, Linux, and everything else in favor of Apple products. It's not tech but marketing.

Anyway, if President Trump is not impeached, I see the following possibilities in this nation:

New war(s), possibly nuclear

More authoritarian rule, possibly martial law

Economic despair as markets become overly controlled by a few oligarchs

And of course the end of the American experiment in self-rule.

The rest of the world will then decline into wars between neo-fascists and everyone else. If there's anything left, it'll be pretty dreadful.

But then I could be all wet and full of it. I just don't see a continuation of Trump as being anything but quintessentially FUBAR'd. Never liked the guy, but now I hold rational hatred for who he is and what he does.

Since so many also have this condition, my prediction is that President Trump will be trading in his long ties for an orange jumpsuit before the 2018 midterms. I'd probably give him a break and have him under house arrest for his remaining days on Earth, since there's zero chance of rehabilitation for his type of character. Keep him eating KFC and watching Fox, twittering his opinions while living out his miserable existence safely away from the halls of power. His dues will be paid in full, but not in this lifetime. And there's a certain amount of karmic forgiveness for being stupid.
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Gray Seal
post Feb 13 2018, 10:02 PM
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AuthorMusician, though we have taken different paths to have the same worries, we do have the same concerns:

-more war
-more authoritarian rule
-economic despair
-turmoil from end of current government
-this effect being world wide

All of this is possible. Not certain. It may be degrees and not the entire enchilada. I think your intuition is guiding you well to have these tumultuous expectations.

But considering the problem with subjective thinking, I can not see how the impeachment of Trump can have any action upon the morass of bad culture which exists.

-We already are in too many wars. Zero would be a good number.
-We already have authoritarian rule. This should be zero.
-We already have economic insanity. This has resulted in half of the people in the United States making less than $27,000 a year.

Policy wise, Trump has continued on the path we have been upon for years.

The problems are much bigger than Trump. Everything was hunky dory until Trump? Does a delivery which ruffles many people's feathers cause all of this mess? I can not see how when a much more plausible explanation is evident.

If we need to get at the root of the problem, it is time to look in the mirror. Voters need to impeach themselves.


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AuthorMusician
post Feb 15 2018, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Feb 13 2018, 06:02 PM) *
The problems are much bigger than Trump. Everything was hunky dory until Trump? Does a delivery which ruffles many people's feathers cause all of this mess? I can not see how when a much more plausible explanation is evident.

If we need to get at the root of the problem, it is time to look in the mirror. Voters need to impeach themselves.


No, everything was not hunky dory before Trump -- but not as bad either. Obama did not attempt to discredit the free press, hobble the FBI, play games with a paranoid nuclear power, defend neo-Nazis, kiss Putin's ring at the posterior end of the alimentary canal, and on and on. Nor did most other POTUS's, with Nixon coming close but not nearly as overtly tyrannical. His evil he at least did in the shadows and, I do believe, he realized how wrong it was.

I don't see not voting as a road to better days. It looks to me that no matter what Russia tries and no matter how hard Trump and crew work at it, the voters will send the Republican Party to the corner of the room with dunce caps in 2018. And I fully expect them to drop out of school, show us they will :grinning yoda:

But that's not all . . . I see the Democratic replacements being far harder to sway the oligarchs' ways. While it was popular for a while to equate Demos and Repubs, that trend ended the day Trump won the EC only. Here are some of the differences that have always existed:

Republicans worship money and those who have the most of it. Democrats will accept money from the oligarchs but do not sell their souls in the process, i.e., don't become their bitches. This is of course in general, since there are always exceptions, and some who call themselves Democrats are actually more like Republicans. The slang term is blue-dog Demos. An actual poly-sci term for them is conservative Democrats.

It will take a lot more effort from the oligarchs to sway other Democrats, since the blue dogs will likely head toward a remaking of a national conservative party. You know, after the Republican Party's crash, burn, and dissipation after November, 2018. As the blues lyric from Omar and the Howlers goes:

There's a wall, a wall of pride.
Ten feet wide and twenty feet high.


Yep, and even the oligarchs couldn't bring it down.

Or Trump might escape impeachment and probable imprisonment; the efforts to suppress the vote and discredit the press might work; oligarchs might be able to buy themselves back into power very quickly; people might be a lot more stupid than I'm giving them credit for. But I seriously doubt that.

What I see unfurling here is a rhyme with Carter but in a screwy way. It took a real idiot like Trump to win the POTUS slot, one who scares the stuffing out of maybe two-thirds to four-fifths of the population, to show that voting does indeed matter. Then to bring it on home, off-season elections showed the truth in how a motivated electorate can bring about positive change. As Republican policies actually get implemented, as more events like the Florida school shooting make Republicans look not only foolish but entirely impotent, and as US citizens from Puerto Rico come to the states with their fresh experiences, well . . .

It's a good thing Trump isn't a drinker. He'd hate the pen's toilet wine.

A few others who want Trump gone bigly time: Nearly all women, all blacks, most other brown-ish people, at least half his staff, all of the Republican Party officials, a good portion of rich people, and anyone in the arts. Even Christian fundamentalists are having buyer remorse. I hear that Andrew Jackson's portrait has turned its back, with Washington's displaying a full bird single-digit salute to the man who would be Caesar.

Whellll, that was cathartic. I must say that for all GWB's faults, not once did I hope he had to mingle with the yard's inmates. I felt a large amount of compassion for Nixon when he resigned on TV in that little New Mexico bar, fueled by a few brews. So this is the very first time that I wanted harm to come to pretty much anybody else.

What will make America great again is about to happen. And if it doesn't? I'll probably be interested in how that turns out, either on an intellectual or a survival level. Maybe both, sort of a hell-lite thing.






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