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[akaCG]

One month is a long time. There are still 3 debates left, one more unemployment number due, the geopolitical situation is quite fluid, and there's always the customary "October Surprise" (or will there be more than one?) to consider.

But that's what makes this more fun. So, ...

1. What will be the Obama/Romney popular vote split?

2. What will be the Obama/Romney Electoral College vote split?

3. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. Senate composition?

4. What will be the Democratic/Republican U.S. House composition?

Bonus question:

At what time (Eastern) will the Presidential Election be called?


My predictions:

1. Obama 47%, Romney 52%

2. Obama 236, Romney 302

3. Dems 50, Reps 50

4. Dems 199, Reps 236

Bonus: 11:45 PM Eastern

[net2007]

Nate Silver usually votes Democrat by the way, and voted for Obama.

Nate Silver might vote Democratic, but that should not influence his predictions, considering that if he skews them in Obama's favor and is wrong, he loses his reputation for being a reliable source.

Looks like my 300 mark could be on the money, if only I'd put some down on it.

Superstorm Sandy seems to be having an impact too, in regards to who is looking like an effective leader now, and not just in the states impacted by disaster. Also, Ohio is paying attention to Romney's lie about US Jeep production moving to China. Well, Chrysler is paying attention and the newspapers, so maybe there'll be a backlash.

If Obama gets 300+ Electorial Votes, I'll tell you what. IM me your Address and I'll send you 5 bucks, If you wouldn't mind putting some trust into a stranger. I think the election is going to be much closer than that, but what do I know.

As for Sandy I sure hope neither candidate benefits from this tragedy because what a lousy way to win an election, I don't care which candidate we're talking about. I've seen the polls have a slight jump for Obama in two states in the last couple days but as President, Barack Obama is in a better position to benefit from this if it's handled well. He can do what he's supposed to be doing anyway and it wont come off as campainish to some, but I get the feeling that some people are crossing their fingers that he handles this well so his chances of reelection are improved.

On the Romney side I'm sure they're wondering what they can do as well but in his case he's obviously not president so if this comes off as a campaign trick it could hurt him pretty bad. Obama I'm sure has his election chances in mind just the same but he can weasel his way through this and play hero Im sure. He's president and he and much of his base have already developed somewhat of a hero complex already, so why stop now?

To me, when we get through this the hero's and the people making this right go beyond those dishing out the bucks whether it be from local or national government. That needs to be provided period, but the people who deserve the pats on the backs are those on the ground putting in the effort outside of the political scene altogether.

This post has been edited by net2007: Nov 2 2012, 05:31 AM

[CruisingRam]

I would say the below listed presidential polls look to be a pretty good representation of what is going to happen:

http://search.yahoo.com/search?cs=bz&p...-701&fr2=ps

Gingrich thinks Obama will win:

http://news.yahoo.com/errant-gingrich-emai...-174518235.html

Speaking of a money bet:

http://news.yahoo.com/nate-silver-joe-scar...cnlwYWdl;_ylv=3

I do think a couple of the very serious mistepps of the Romney campaign has hurt him- the outright lie over Jeep going to China, and Jeep's rebuttal, as well as Ford and GM saying the same thing, his comments on Fema, his connections to the pro-rape candidates of Mourdock and Akins yadda yadda.

Had the republicans put forth a good candidate, Obama would have been toast. This was the Republicans election to lose. Wertz, IIRC, called it way back in the day, when he worried that Obama would have to carry the legacy of fixing everything the republican party has done to this country from 2000-2008, and the obstructionism of that party during the Obama administration. Made the job much harder that it would have been had the republicans actually cared about fixing the country instead of worrying about whether Obama would be a two term president.

[Amlord]

Gingrich thinks Obama will win:

http://news.yahoo.com/errant-gingrich-emai...-174518235.html

Isn't this the same Newt Gringrich who predicted he would be the next President of the United States?

his connections to the pro-rape candidates of Mourdock and Akins yadda yadda.

Nobody is pro-rape. Can you drop this garbage line?

Had the republicans put forth a good candidate, Obama would have been toast. This was the Republicans election to lose. Wertz, IIRC, called it way back in the day, when he worried that Obama would have to carry the legacy of fixing everything the republican party has done to this country from 2000-2008, and the obstructionism of that party during the Obama administration. Made the job much harder that it would have been had the republicans actually cared about fixing the country instead of worrying about whether Obama would be a two term president.

Actually, Wertz never supported the Obama candidacy or Presidency.

Here's what I consider the key statistic for this year's election. It is the statistic that is making the race look like a dead heat because it has been ignored by most pollsters.

Party Affiliation.

In November 2008, the breakdown was 41.4% Democratic, 33.8% Republican, and 24.7% Independent. The Democrats held a 7.6% edge and Barack Obama won the popular vote by 7.2%.

In September 2012, the breakdown is 36.8% Republican 34.2% Democratic and 29.0% Independent a 2.6% advantage to the Republicans. This would indicate a 2-3% advantage in the popular vote for Republicans, assuming partisan voters stay home with their party and turnout was about equal on both sides.

But we know that the enthusiasm is with the Republicans and that more Democrats are defecting this year than Republicans are.

Gallup also has the numbers shifting as dramatically as Rasmussen does but there has been a shift from 37-55 (Republican-Democrat) to 43-50 today. That's an eleven point swing.

In the key state of Ohio (my home state), there are currently 67,000 more registered Republicans than registered Democrats. In 2008, there were 174,000 more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. That's a 230,000 vote shift. Obama won the state by 262,000 votes. Add in the enthusiasm gap, and it is literally neck and neck.

[amf]

This would indicate a 2-3% advantage in the popular vote for Republicans, assuming partisan voters stay home with their party and turnout was about equal on both sides.

But we know that the enthusiasm is with the Republicans and that more Democrats are defecting this year than Republicans are.

Your logic has holes.

The biggest is that you're assuming that slight shifts in the partisan divide for the nation translates into the partisan divide for a state like Ohio. For all anyone knows, it just means that more northern "independents" moved to Georgia and became Republicans. By the way, we didn't vote in September, and in 2008, there was a 2-point shift toward the Democrats in the last two months, so the comparison is also problematic.

The other hole is your statement that "we know that the enthusiasm is with the Republicans". We do? Republicans may be more enthusiastic about hating Obama, but that doesn't translate into votes for Romney when Republicans aren't sure who Romney really is.

This post has been edited by amf: Nov 2 2012, 09:11 PM

[Eeyore]

It seems that Obama has regained momentum.538Blog The loss of Mo hit its nadir around October 11. Romney has gone from needing to run the table, to about dead even, back to needing to run the table.

Obama is now a 4:1 favorite. This matrix has him at 300. When you look at their present trend in toss-up states and fill out the map it has Obama at oops edited to correct numbers). 303-235
I picked 294 originally, I think he'll beat my prediction now. edited to add, I think 294 might be the number. I still lean on the over at this point)

Here is a good scenario toy. Election calculator

This post has been edited by Eeyore: Nov 3 2012, 01:54 PM

[akaCG]

Interesting factoid:

Of the nation's top 100 newspapers, 12 (with a total print circulation of about 2.5 million) that endorsed Obama in '08 are endorsing Romney now:

Daily News (NYC, NY)
Newsday (Long Island, NY)
Houston Chronicle
Star-Telegram (Fort Worth, TX)
Orlando Sentinel
Sun-Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale, FL)
Tennessean (Nashville, TN)
Des Moines Register
Daily Herald (Arlington Heights, IL)
Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Wisconsin State Journal (Madison, WI)
Press-Telegram (Los Angeles, CA)

Meanwhile, only 1 newspaper (with a print circulation of about 140,000) that endorsed McCain in '08 is endorsing Obama now: San Antonio Express-News.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/2012_n...ndorsements.php
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/opinion/e...1a4bcf887a.html

This post has been edited by akaCG: Nov 4 2012, 06:43 PM

[net2007]

Interesting factoid:

12 newspapers (with a total print circulation of about 2.5 million) that endorsed Obama in '08 are endorsing Romney now:

Daily News (NYC, NY)
Newsday (Long Island, NY)
Houston Chronicle
Star-Telegram (Fort Worth, TX)
Orlando Sentinel
Sun-Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale, FL)
Tennessean (Nashville, TN)
Des Moines Register
Daily Herald (Arlington Heights, IL)
Daily News (Los Angeles, CA)
Wisconsin State Journal (Madison, WI)
Press-Telegram (Los Angeles, CA)

Meanwhile, only 1 newspaper (with a print circulation of about 140,000) that endorsed McCain in '08 is endorsing Obama now: San Antonio Express-News.

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/2012_n...ndorsements.php
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/opinion/e...1a4bcf887a.html

Very interesting info, and that says a little something. There's obviously posters making comments here who have little doubt that Obama will win, but that's actually another thing that is helping Romney. Complacency is going to mean less votes this time around which is something that's being overlooked. Turnout will be lower this time around for Democrats and higher for Republicans. The question is by how much. Will Sandy also play a role? Is the left too content to see Romney as having a real chance here?

I know most posters here will vote, I voted yesterday. But there are independents and moderate Democrats who are far less enthused this time around and this is one of the best things Romney has going for him. Even here in Asheville conservative enthusiasm is unusually high for such a liberal city. The protesters still did their thing at the Mitt Romney rally but they were outnumbered by about 8000 to 30 which in this city is almost freakish.

The 300+ EV for Obama that some people here are thinking Obama will get is highly unlikely. I just went to the select your own states map at...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...ollege_map.html

And I only gave Romney Florida and North Carolina out of all the swing states and the total was 303 for Obama. Romney has maintained an edge in both these states and It's likely that he gets at least those two. Early voting has been going on too which is going to help Romney in states where he's been ahead.

Assuming Obama wins it will be close regardless. Beyond these two states I've mentioned Romney has had a slight edge in a couple others and that's without factoring in that some of these polls are very slightly Democrat leaning. So I really don't see a landslide victory for Obama which IMO is anything over 300. I want the Democrats to believe this though, it's going to help Romney. He might not win, and nobody knows for sure, so I'm far from complacent myself but If Romney pulls it off then most who don't support him are really counting on the fact that some Democrats expect it while less independents will vote his way.

This post has been edited by net2007: Nov 4 2012, 07:02 PM

[akaCG]

I thought it would be interesting to include some non- Electoral College predictions that I've come across in the last few days:

Michael Barone: 223 Obama, 315 Romney

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going...70#.UJRUJYaihv7

George Will: 217 Obama, 321 Romney
Cokie Roberts: 294 Obama, 244 Romney
Ronald Brownstein: 288 Obama, 250 Romney
Matthew Dowd: 303 Obama, 235 Romney
Donna Brazile: 313 Obama, 225 Romney

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/...ay-predictions/

The PJTV "Trifecta" team:

Stephen Green: 222 Obama, 316 Romney
Stephen Kruiser: 243 Obama, 295 Romney
Bill Whittle: 247 Obama, 291 Romney

http://www.pjtv.com/?cmd=mpg&mpid=105&load=7641

Let's see how they all do.

Hours left 'til the polls open: less than 48!

This post has been edited by akaCG: Nov 4 2012, 07:33 PM

[AuthorMusician]

Just heard a fellow old fart at the little hardware store (not the Wal*Mart blah) identify Nixon as having been a Democrat.

I let him know the truth.

Obama by 300, and I'm still sticking with it.

No extra hot fudge required.

[Bikerdad]

The Gods of the NFL have spoken through their oracles, the Washington Redskins.

Following the Redskins example, Obama will lose.

(The Redskins Rule has called the incumbent's fate correclty every time except once. Perhaps the Rule will be suspended again.)

[CruisingRam]

However, the world series rule means Obama wins.

[akaCG]

However, the world series rule means Obama wins.

Not quite. Not even close, in fact (bolding mine):

...
... Of the 26 elections held between 1908 and 2008, there has been a correlation (AL = Rep.; NL = Dem.) between the World Series winner and the Presidential Election 15 times (57.7%).
...

Link: http://billstaples.blogspot.com/2012/09/do...er-predict.html

Meanwhile, the "Redskins Rule" has a correlation of ... 94.4% (17 out of 18 Presidential elections since 1940).

[Amlord]

I'm prepared to call Ohio for Mitt Romney and with it declare him the 45th President of the United States. The President has not won enough early voters. Romney is leading by 11 points among those who will vote on Election Day.

Among swing states, I give Romney Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.

The President gets Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin although I believe Romney has a chance there considering Scott Walker just won there and Republicans seem to be surging in all recent elections there.

This gives Romney 279 electoral votes to 259 for the President.

But WAIT!!! Peruvian Shamans predict an Obama victory.

[Ted]

I'm prepared to call Ohio for Mitt Romney and with it declare him the 45th President of the United States. The President has not won enough early voters. Romney is leading by 11 points among those who will vote on Election Day.

Among swing states, I give Romney Ohio, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.

The President gets Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin although I believe Romney has a chance there considering Scott Walker just won there and Republicans seem to be surging in all recent elections there.

This gives Romney 279 electoral votes to 259 for the President.

But WAIT!!! Peruvian Shamans predict an Obama victory.

I agree except for PA and WI. I believe that PA and WI will go to Romney giving him 309

[Amlord]

I agree except for PA and WI. I believe that PA and WI will go to Romney giving him 309

It would not shock me if Wisconsin goes to Romney.

Pennsylvania is a stretch however.

[Ted]

I agree except for PA and WI. I believe that PA and WI will go to Romney giving him 309

It would not shock me if Wisconsin goes to Romney.

Pennsylvania is a stretch however.

I agree but my friends there tell me the Obama signs for 2008 on the lawns of independents are now Romney signs. I think he has a good shot at it - esp. if you consider what has been happening in coal country.

[Ringwraith]

I have it as the following:

Romney 281
Obama 257

Romney carries: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa.
Obama carries: Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota.

[Dontreadonme]

The only prediction I'll make is that I believe the GOP will hold the House, but lose some seats...and the Democrats will hold the Senate at about par with the current split.

I don't have a dog in the hunt for POTUS, but have noticed it seems pretty evident that peoples predictions seem to be aligned with their party affiliation.

[Dingo]

I personally claim no expertise in political prognostication so I'll turn it over to the expert, Nate Silver, whose got it reasoned out.

Obama 307
Romney 231

Just to be on the safe side I'll allow a 37 point margin of error. Obama still wins.

[akaCG]

I personally claim no expertise in political prognostication so I'll turn it over to the expert, Nate Silver, whose got it reasoned out.

Obama 307
Romney 231

Just to be on the safe side I'll allow a 37 point margin of error. Obama still wins.

Nate Silver is a man in firm possession of what many (including me) quite often refer to as "spine" (a.k.a. "backbone"). With that in mind, I'll put you down as prognosticating that Obama will get 270 ECVs.

And thus, with now fewer than 6 hours to go 'til midnight Pacific Time, the table of Electoral College predictions (expressed in "Obama ECVs - Romney ECVs" terms; descending order) is:

"AuthorMusician": + 62
"Eeyore": +50
"DCjumper": +24
"Dingo": +2
"Amlord": -20
"Ringwraith": -24
"net2007": -32
"akaCG": -66
"Ted": -80

Looking forward to seeing how we all did!