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> Election Predictions, One Month Out
Raptavio
post Oct 5 2010, 02:15 AM
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All right. Simple questions for debate.

What do you predict the Democrat-to-Republican ratio in the House after the midterm elections will be?

What do you predict the Democrat-to-Republican ratio in the Senate after the midterm elections will be?

I'm leaving gubernatorial and state legislature questions off this topic deliberately; if you want to discuss those, start a new topic.

What reasons factor into your predictions?

Here are my answers to the first two questions. I'm leaving the third for later.

I'm predicting (counting Lieberman and Sanders) 53 Democrats, (counting possibly Crist and Murkowski) 47 Republicans in the Senate.

I'm predicting a net loss of 24 Democratic seats in the House, and a net gain of 26 seats by Republicans, leaving a balance of 231-204. (There are currently two vacancies.)
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Sleeper
post Oct 31 2010, 05:38 AM
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QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Oct 30 2010, 07:18 PM) *
*

Further prediction: Small gain in House, big loss in Senate (talking Republicans here if it's not clear). Obama gets to get things done.

Fox 'n frens go off the air. Nobody cares.



I thought trolling wasn't allowed LOL

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Raptavio
post Nov 1 2010, 01:43 AM
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Wow, Aquilla. Your judgement concerning what constitutes an "idiotic" comment will be given exactly the consideration it merits, particularly given the context of your content-free invective-filled post which seems both unaware of how Presidents do not, in fact, wave a magic wand the day they assume office and implement their policies, nor does it seem to have the faintest grasp on how quickly those policies can impact unemployment, nor really anything factual abut the AR&RA.

At least your predictions regarding the outcomes of the House and Senate seem to be well within the mainstream, too bad you didn't want to give exact numbers, but of course two days out the predictions are a little less fun to play with.

But least now I know how fundamentally unequipped candidates like Christine O'Donnell, Rand Paul, Sharron Angle and Joe Miller managed to get the GOP nomination for Senate and helped ensure a Democratic hold of that chamber.
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WinePusher
post Nov 1 2010, 02:19 AM
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Well, personally I think that republicans will have a net gain of at least 30 seats in the House and the Senate would be a ratio of 55 Democrats to 45 Republicans. There probably won't be any upst races in the Senate, Coons will keep Delaware, Boxer will keep California and Blumenthal will keep Connecticut, and Nevada really is to close to call. The one Gubernatorial race that I think will be a shocker is California, I think Meg Whitman will win despite her poll numbers.
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akaCG
post Nov 1 2010, 02:27 AM
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It seems that, in all of this "Bush policies this, Obama policies that" to-and-fro, an important factor has been forgotten. That being:

"Hey! What are WE? Chopped liver? We've been in charge for nine score and sixteen weeks now, ya know??!!?? And we worked so hard to get our titles! C'mon, where's the R.E.S.P.E.C.T., people???"

EDITED TO ADD for the benefit of any (both "imperial" and "metric") posters on AD who may not be familiar with what "score" means in this kind of context:

"Score" = 20.

Thus, ...

"Nine score and sixteen weeks" = 9 * 20 weeks + 16 weeks = 196 weeks. Otherwise put, the period between the first week in January, 2007 and now.

This post has been edited by akaCG: Nov 1 2010, 04:30 AM
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Raptavio
post Nov 1 2010, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(akaCG @ Oct 31 2010, 09:27 PM) *
It seems that, in all of this "Bush policies this, Obama policies that" to-and-fro, an important factor has been forgotten. That being:

"Hey! What are WE? Chopped liver? We've been in charge for nine score and sixteen weeks now, ya know??!!?? And we worked so hard to get our titles! C'mon, where's the R.E.S.P.E.C.T., people???"

EDITED TO ADD for the benefit of any (both "imperial" and "metric") posters on AD who may not be familiar with what "score" means in this kind of context:

"Score" = 20.

Thus, ...

"Nine score and sixteen weeks" = 9 * 20 weeks + 16 weeks = 196 weeks. Otherwise put, the period between the first week in January, 2007 and now.


If your preferred outcome comes to pass, akaCG, you're going to receive a sharp lesson in just how ineffective a Congress can be when the President is dedicated opposition.
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Landru Guide Us
post Nov 2 2010, 05:45 PM
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I predict Democrats will keep both the House and the Senate. When it comes to actually pulling the lever for some of the bizarro weirdo conservative tea party types running for the GOP, voters will shrink back and realize that it's crazy and adolesent to do so, despite what they told pollsters.
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Jobius
post Nov 3 2010, 03:16 AM
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QUOTE(Jobius @ Oct 17 2010, 01:03 PM) *
QUOTE(nighttimer @ Oct 16 2010, 09:44 PM) *
I'm also curious to see if the GOP wave actually brings a few Black Republicans into the House this time (it didn't in 1996).

Me too. There's likely to be at least one black Republican elected, Tim Scott from South Carolina, who defeated Strom Thurmond's son for the nomination:
QUOTE
Scott is running against Democrat Ben Frasier, a perennial candidate who has never won or held elective office but has tried repeatedly since 1972. One pundit called him the most defeated candidate in America.

Allen West is in a tight race in Florida against Ron Klein. I don't know how many of the other twelve black Republicans running are competitive.

Tim Scott wins SC-1: there will be at least one Black Republican in the House. Allen West leads Ron Klein 55%-45% in FL-22 with 50% of precincts reporting. So maybe two. (Late edit: West won.) Ryan Frazier (the other Black Republican with a shot) trails Ed Perlmutter in CO-7, 52%-44%. (Late edit: Frazier lost.)

This post has been edited by Jobius: Nov 3 2010, 06:31 AM
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CruisingRam
post Nov 3 2010, 06:06 AM
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Well, Darn, I was right about two races- Reid wins, Murkowski wins (a monkey in a suit that is red in Alaska will win) In Hawaii, republicans of pretty much any flavor was swept out of office, big time. One big lesson for Repubs in Hawaii- negative campaigning is very, very ill advised. Anyone running a negative campaign here basically lost. It is completely anti-Hawaiin culture, and being here, I really wish the rest of the nation it was true too LOL

House is 'Pub, Senate is Dem. All three of Palin's hand picked tea partiers went down- O'Donnell- no surprise there, Miiller, suprised me, Angle, I was in Reno for much of the campaigning, and it didn't suprise me a bit she lost- she is as wing-nutty as O'Donnell, no matter how negative Nevadans felt about Reid!
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