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> POTUS Impeachment Watch 2018 . . . ?, The kind that uses eyes, calendars and chronometers
AuthorMusician
post Feb 12 2018, 04:26 PM
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I suppose the topic of impeachment of the current POTUS started a microsecond after it became clear he had won the Electoral College but lost the citizens' vote by around three million. It could have started earlier, but now it's looking so bad that removal from office is actually in the best interests of the nation, a matter of national security -- or so it seems.

Here's the guy who predicted a Trump win and also predicts his impeachment:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGd7h-Tpy7E

As Lichtman points out, a mathematical model can't be constructed, which he used to predict the EC win, because the event of impeachment hasn't occurred enough times in USA history. So, what do we watch and how long will it take -- if it indeed is to happen?

Lichtman says it may take a lot longer than a lot of citizens want, but will it be into Trump's second term as it was for Clinton and Nixon?

Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?
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entspeak
post Feb 12 2018, 04:55 PM
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Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

I€™m not sure he will be.

When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

It has become apparent that he will only be impeached if Democrats take control of the House. The bar for impeachment, oddly enough seems to be higher for Republicans than it has been in the past. (I say €œoddly€ with a bit of my tongue in my cheek because we all know why that really is - partisan hypocrisy.)

If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

Again, this depends on who controls the Senate. While I think the Republicans in the Senate may be more inclined to remove him (there appears to be little love lost there), so long as they have control, I don€™t believe enough Republicans would vote for removal.

If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

It€™ll be rough and the divide will cement itself in a way. Though, the size of the divide may not be as great as some would think. I think the rest of the world would see it as democracy in action.

If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

This is a more difficult question for me to answer, I honestly don€™t know. I€™d like to think this would right itself as it has in the past.

On a technical note, I’m sad to see that this site is not iPhone friendly when it comes to fonts.

This post has been edited by entspeak: Feb 12 2018, 04:58 PM
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AuthorMusician
post Feb 13 2018, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(entspeak @ Feb 12 2018, 12:55 PM) *
Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

I€™m not sure he will be.

It sometimes looks like impeachment will fizzle out to me as well, but then I look at what President Trump proposes, and I have renewed faith that our brand of a democratic republic has enough going for it that a bad POTUS will indeed be sent packing. By bad, I mean dangerous in the sense of letting a child play with a loaded pistol. Except the cartridges have nuclear tips. Nobody wins anything if the gun fires.
QUOTE
When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

It has become apparent that he will only be impeached if Democrats take control of the House. The bar for impeachment, oddly enough seems to be higher for Republicans than it has been in the past. (I say €œoddly€ with a bit of my tongue in my cheek because we all know why that really is - partisan hypocrisy.)

So sometime in the spring of 2019? I'm thinking it will be earlier, before the midterms in November. That's because the entire House is up for grabs, and not taking action on impeachment before then will ensure a Democratic House. It will also increase the possibility of a Democratic Senate, and that will pretty much mean resignation by Trump, pardon by Pence, and another Democrat in the White House come January of 2021.

But more so, it'll mark the end of the Republican Party as being at all useful for the powers behind the public officials. There's so much at risk that impeachment has to happen for party self-preservation.

I'm also thinking that the economy is about to take a nosedive before the midterms, which is very bad for incumbents. However, an economic downturn, even if it's somehow spun up to be Obama's and/or HRC's fault, won't be as influential as President Trump's daily exercises in absurdity.
QUOTE
If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

Again, this depends on who controls the Senate. While I think the Republicans in the Senate may be more inclined to remove him (there appears to be little love lost there), so long as they have control, I don€™t believe enough Republicans would vote for removal.

I'm pretty certain that the vote will be a simple majority, and the Republicans don't have enough seats to ensure the vote. There will be defectors, and I'm thinking around 20 of them.

There will be those Senators who are seeking reelection in November, and I don't see the POTUS as being at all beneficial to their cause. However, sending Trump packing could very well be the thing that keeps the Senate Republican, and Pence would be, if not beneficial, then a whole lot less threatening.

He'd have to hold off on pardoning Trump until after the midterms, so that's another problem -- a Republican former POTUS spending slammer time during election season -- very bad optics there.
QUOTE
If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

It€™ll be rough and the divide will cement itself in a way. Though, the size of the divide may not be as great as some would think. I think the rest of the world would see it as democracy in action.

I can hear Trump now, performing as a disgraced former POTUS, claiming that his impeachment and removal from office actually brought the country together. And for once, I'll give him credit for the brag.

The nation will likely fully understand why the Electoral College is a really bad idea, one born from a rather shaky alliance of former colonies and a distrust of a largely uneducated populace. I am of course thinking about conditions as they were in the 18th century. Today, things are so different as to be unimaginable during the Constitutional Convention. The time will have finally arrived for that piece of work to be eliminated via constitutional amendment.

The rest of the free world will be overjoyed that the USA, even with its strange form of government that allows minority presidents, recovered its balance after checking the power of the Executive. The world's little dictators will be bummed out, the poor dears.
QUOTE
If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

This is a more difficult question for me to answer, I honestly don€™t know. I€™d like to think this would right itself as it has in the past.

On a technical note, I’m sad to see that this site is not iPhone friendly when it comes to fonts.

Apple fonts don't work well on non-Apple platforms by design. It's been like this all along. We're all supposed to get sick of it and abandon Windows, Linux, and everything else in favor of Apple products. It's not tech but marketing.

Anyway, if President Trump is not impeached, I see the following possibilities in this nation:

New war(s), possibly nuclear

More authoritarian rule, possibly martial law

Economic despair as markets become overly controlled by a few oligarchs

And of course the end of the American experiment in self-rule.

The rest of the world will then decline into wars between neo-fascists and everyone else. If there's anything left, it'll be pretty dreadful.

But then I could be all wet and full of it. I just don't see a continuation of Trump as being anything but quintessentially FUBAR'd. Never liked the guy, but now I hold rational hatred for who he is and what he does.

Since so many also have this condition, my prediction is that President Trump will be trading in his long ties for an orange jumpsuit before the 2018 midterms. I'd probably give him a break and have him under house arrest for his remaining days on Earth, since there's zero chance of rehabilitation for his type of character. Keep him eating KFC and watching Fox, twittering his opinions while living out his miserable existence safely away from the halls of power. His dues will be paid in full, but not in this lifetime. And there's a certain amount of karmic forgiveness for being stupid.
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Gray Seal
post Feb 13 2018, 10:02 PM
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AuthorMusician, though we have taken different paths to have the same worries, we do have the same concerns:

-more war
-more authoritarian rule
-economic despair
-turmoil from end of current government
-this effect being world wide

All of this is possible. Not certain. It may be degrees and not the entire enchilada. I think your intuition is guiding you well to have these tumultuous expectations.

But considering the problem with subjective thinking, I can not see how the impeachment of Trump can have any action upon the morass of bad culture which exists.

-We already are in too many wars. Zero would be a good number.
-We already have authoritarian rule. This should be zero.
-We already have economic insanity. This has resulted in half of the people in the United States making less than $27,000 a year.

Policy wise, Trump has continued on the path we have been upon for years.

The problems are much bigger than Trump. Everything was hunky dory until Trump? Does a delivery which ruffles many people's feathers cause all of this mess? I can not see how when a much more plausible explanation is evident.

If we need to get at the root of the problem, it is time to look in the mirror. Voters need to impeach themselves.


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AuthorMusician
post Feb 15 2018, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Feb 13 2018, 06:02 PM) *
The problems are much bigger than Trump. Everything was hunky dory until Trump? Does a delivery which ruffles many people's feathers cause all of this mess? I can not see how when a much more plausible explanation is evident.

If we need to get at the root of the problem, it is time to look in the mirror. Voters need to impeach themselves.


No, everything was not hunky dory before Trump -- but not as bad either. Obama did not attempt to discredit the free press, hobble the FBI, play games with a paranoid nuclear power, defend neo-Nazis, kiss Putin's ring at the posterior end of the alimentary canal, and on and on. Nor did most other POTUS's, with Nixon coming close but not nearly as overtly tyrannical. His evil he at least did in the shadows and, I do believe, he realized how wrong it was.

I don't see not voting as a road to better days. It looks to me that no matter what Russia tries and no matter how hard Trump and crew work at it, the voters will send the Republican Party to the corner of the room with dunce caps in 2018. And I fully expect them to drop out of school, show us they will :grinning yoda:

But that's not all . . . I see the Democratic replacements being far harder to sway the oligarchs' ways. While it was popular for a while to equate Demos and Repubs, that trend ended the day Trump won the EC only. Here are some of the differences that have always existed:

Republicans worship money and those who have the most of it. Democrats will accept money from the oligarchs but do not sell their souls in the process, i.e., don't become their bitches. This is of course in general, since there are always exceptions, and some who call themselves Democrats are actually more like Republicans. The slang term is blue-dog Demos. An actual poly-sci term for them is conservative Democrats.

It will take a lot more effort from the oligarchs to sway other Democrats, since the blue dogs will likely head toward a remaking of a national conservative party. You know, after the Republican Party's crash, burn, and dissipation after November, 2018. As the blues lyric from Omar and the Howlers goes:

There's a wall, a wall of pride.
Ten feet wide and twenty feet high.


Yep, and even the oligarchs couldn't bring it down.

Or Trump might escape impeachment and probable imprisonment; the efforts to suppress the vote and discredit the press might work; oligarchs might be able to buy themselves back into power very quickly; people might be a lot more stupid than I'm giving them credit for. But I seriously doubt that.

What I see unfurling here is a rhyme with Carter but in a screwy way. It took a real idiot like Trump to win the POTUS slot, one who scares the stuffing out of maybe two-thirds to four-fifths of the population, to show that voting does indeed matter. Then to bring it on home, off-season elections showed the truth in how a motivated electorate can bring about positive change. As Republican policies actually get implemented, as more events like the Florida school shooting make Republicans look not only foolish but entirely impotent, and as US citizens from Puerto Rico come to the states with their fresh experiences, well . . .

It's a good thing Trump isn't a drinker. He'd hate the pen's toilet wine.

A few others who want Trump gone bigly time: Nearly all women, all blacks, most other brown-ish people, at least half his staff, all of the Republican Party officials, a good portion of rich people, and anyone in the arts. Even Christian fundamentalists are having buyer remorse. I hear that Andrew Jackson's portrait has turned its back, with Washington's displaying a full bird single-digit salute to the man who would be Caesar.

Whellll, that was cathartic. I must say that for all GWB's faults, not once did I hope he had to mingle with the yard's inmates. I felt a large amount of compassion for Nixon when he resigned on TV in that little New Mexico bar, fueled by a few brews. So this is the very first time that I wanted harm to come to pretty much anybody else.

What will make America great again is about to happen. And if it doesn't? I'll probably be interested in how that turns out, either on an intellectual or a survival level. Maybe both, sort of a hell-lite thing.






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net2007
post Today, 07:44 AM
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AuthorMusician, I've given you some of my opinions on this in another thread but I'll expand some here. I'll be reaching a point before too long where I won't be able to participate at AD for a liitle while, but I thought I'd share some newer information while I have the chance.

Why do you think President Trump will or will not be impeached?

He may be impeached if they focus on something other than Russia, it's becoming more clear every day that there was no Russia/Trump collusion. I'm not ruling it out 100% but the false media reports, the revelation that the Democrats were motivated, in part, by a propaganda dossier paid for by the Hillary campaign and DNC, the multiple charges made by the Muller team which have nothing to do with collusion, and most importantly the amount of time they've had to find something definitive are all things which point to the Russia/Trump collusion narrative being a false narrative.

As I hinted at, I think the best chance they have to get Trump with the current Russia investigation is if he lies when he answers questions for Muller. Trump doesn't always speak candidly and he speaks in haste, on a number of issues, especially if he feels insulted or is on a rant. They could use that against him effectively even if Trump didn't collude with Russia but if that happens to him without an underlying crime, it'll mean the Democrats got Trump by using a false narrative pushed by a number of corrupt individuals, which is a nasty way for them to get what they want and places a lot of the wrongdoing on their end. To talk more about the validity behind the argument that Trump colluded with Russia, here's Rod Rosenstein in regards to some of the more recent indictments...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlGm5tse8ek

http://thehill.com/opinion/judiciary/37431...ussia-collusion

QUOTE
"Not only did the indictment clearly say that no one in the Trump campaign was wittingly or knowingly involved with the Russians, it explains how the Russians used fake names and groups to hide their real identities. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein gave a press conference and drove home that point, stating that there was no evidence of any knowing involvement by the Trump campaign, as well as no evidence that this effort impacted the election. Indeed, Rosenstein stated that there is no allegation in this indictment that any American had any knowledge of the Russian effort.

For over a year, some of us have been questioning the weekly bombshells announced on cable programs of criminal Russian collusion. Indeed, for months I asked for someone to point to a crime of collusion in the criminal code or the criminal evidence to support a criminal indictment if such a related charge is made. With each week, experts have given breathless accounts of the circle of collusion tightening on the Trump campaign."


Even though these recent indictments from Muller and comments from Rosenstein present more doubt that Trump was involved in a collusion scheme, networks like CNN leave that part out or minimize that so they can milk the indictments for what they're worth. The way that some of them covered this was to point out that there's further evidence that Russia meddled and while that absolutely should be covered, it should be put in context, their reporting left out a lot.

In large part, they doubled down on things we already knew, most people already understand that Russia meddled in our elections. At this point, anyone who claims that Russia wasn't meddling in our elections hasn't been paying attention or isn't being honest. Trump has cast doubts on it before because he doesn't like that people are claiming that he only got elected because of what Russia did, but casting doubt on this wasn't helping him at all, it gave his critics talking points. Even though the Russia/Trump collusion narrative hasn't been based on solid or indisputable substantiation and corruption is being exposed with many of those who are going after him, the comments he often makes distracts from that. So those are the types of things the media wanted to emphasize the most but here's a more inclusive picture of what we learned and heard last week...

A. More evidence that Russia was trying to impact the 2016 elections and favored Trump to win. (which aren't new revelations)

B. Evidence which demonstrates that the Russians were meddling long before Trump announced he was running. That
doesn't remove the possibility that Trump colluded with Russia but it certainly doesn't support that narrative, it supports
a narrative that Russia was doing this for their own reasons, they wanted to cause trouble regardless of who was
running.

C. Evidence that the Russians were behind anti-Trump rallies in the U.S. (causing chaos has been their primary goal)

D. "No American was a knowing participant in the illegal activity outlined in the indictment"

E. "There is no allegation in the indictment that the charged conduct altered the outcome of the 2016 election."

The last two things having been said by Rod Rosenstein. I keep in mind that a lot of this is coming from an investigating team made up of mostly Democrats, some of whom want to tie Trump in with Russia. The Muller investigation along with the media and Democrats in office have shown countless times that they have participants who are doing more than seeking the truth, they want Trump to be guilty of this and some will do whatever is in their power to make this stick regardless of what they find and regardless of what it means for them.

If the evidence that's coming out on Russia\Trump collusion is still missing the mark with so many invested in making that connection, that's another thing that cast a lot of doubt on this and leads to questions on whether or not there's any "there there". Not only have they had a year and a half to look at records, they've questioned high ranking officials, and have gotten information on some of the Russians who were involved as well. They've been looking so hard for over a year and have, at times, bent or broken the rules to get them closer but still haven't found what they're looking for. I want to add that there are those who are trying to be fair when looking into Russia collusion or debating it, I just wish they'd call out the ones who aren't. (I'll explain more about that a couple paragraphs down).

When will impeachment happen to President Trump, it at all?

When looking at impeachment more broadly I'm not confident enough to make a bet with you here, (that it won't happen at all). I still have my doubts it will happen, but we'll see. As we discussed before, for those who are going after Trump, I think the best shot that they have to impeach him, is to focus on a sexual harassment charge. They'd still have a way to go to prove the accusers credible but there are certainly concerning things Trump has said and concerning things that have been said about him. The problem has often been that those going after Trump are themselves corrupt in many cases or sabotaging their own cause. For example, some women were paid to come out against Trump and now that this is known, it works against those who want Trump out office.

I understand many of the concerns being shared about Trump and do think there are those who simply want to know the truth. The chances of making progress on this increase when those who are legitimate reject the fibbers and corrupt partisans who want Trump out of office for political or personal reasons. To briefly talk about time frames, if impeachment happens, it wouldn't be this year, after that it's anybody's guess. Assuming we elect more Democrats in the midterms, if they have a majority to work with the chances of impeachment increase. Hopefully, if they aim for impeachment, they think it out and base it on something solid.

If impeachment does happen, what do you think President Trump and/or Congress (Senate) will do about it?

I'm not sure, so much that's happened has been unpredictable. Like many other things in the last couple years, there'll be a lot of drama, that much is certain. I also feel confident saying that Trump will fight the process whether or not he's guilty of the charges made. If the impeachment is in regards to Russia then Trump, Congress, and the Senate will probably continue to try to expose the corruption within the Muller investigation, Fusion GPS, and Hillary campaign since Hillary and her team played a role in pushing the Russia collusion narrative. That's their best defense but all of that needs to continue to be exposed regardless, both sides should be held to the same standard.

If impeachment does happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

If it's over something legit, justice will be served and we'll be better for it, but many of his opponents are likely to go down with him based on crimes and corruption on their end. One of the side effects of the Democrats focus on the Russia collusion narrative has been that they've exposed things they didn't intend to. Problems within the FBI, DOJ, the Hillary campaign, the media, etc. etc. Regardless, a Trump impeachment, (for any reason), would obviously have the effect of exciting and encouraging many who are on the left and in the Democratic party in particular while discouraging many people on the right or within the Republican party, but that will be short lived on both sides.

Let's say impeachment over something serious leads to the Republican party struggling and a new Democratic president eventually being elected as a result. Given the fact that Democrats have also had a lot of corruption on their end and have become increasingly partisan to the point where some of them can't be civil or honest, they wouldn't be able to stay on top for too long, (as with the Republican party). As long as both parties put the vast majority of positive attention on their base, people will rise up against that and the party in power will lose that power.

Though I have a slightly different take than Gray Seal, I echo his point that this has a lot more to do than with Trump alone. The world will continue on with the same types of problems with or without Trump given how deep those problems go. Personally, I have a complicated view on whether or not Trump himself is improving things or making them worse. I think it depends on what a person believes, making America great again is similar to Obama's "change" or "yes we can" slogans. Making America great again generally applies to those who are more on the right side of politics, while "yes we can" has meant yes we can pass things that those on the left side of politics can appreciate.

There's been too little in the way of middle ground and while holding a solid right or left stance on an issue is fine (I sometimes do), some people won't even acknowledge those who don't share their opinion, that's if they're not smeared or misrepresented. That's sad and goes to the root of many of our problems, will the removal of Trump change that? He certainly does say disrespectful things intentionally and frequently, while I like the assertiveness Trump has on certain issues I wouldn't miss the divisive rhetoric that often comes with it, a person can be assertive without causing pointless flame wars. That being said, things were steadily getting more hostile and divided long before he showed up so most of the responsibility for this situation comes back to us and a number of people in our government and media.

If impeachment does not happen, how do you see this working out, positive and/or negative, for the nation and world?

I'm sure people will still go on about why they think he should be impeached. Even if something like Russia collusion is proven false or we never come across something definitive on it, some will still believe it based, in some cases, on bias, raw emotion, or being misled by sources which have that problem. For others, if Trump does something wrong on topics A. and D. surely he's done wrong on topics B. C. and E. This has happened with others as well, sometimes when people find a person or party they don't like, they'll program themselves to notice only the flaws in that person rather than any positive traits. With Trump on overall performance, I believe the verdict is still out, I see positives and negatives in him thus far so I don't know how much of an impact he'll end up having by the end of this. Again, I think this is a partisan issue where some will be happy and others will be disappointed. As far as the World is concerned, many foreign nations don't like the U.S. anyway. Some are no doubt genuinely concerned about Trump and think he's making things worse but others aren't going to like him simply because he speaks out for a country they don't like, on that basis alone there will be those who respond negatively to him remaining in office.

In short, I understand and agree with many of your points on Trump but I think there's a lot of grey in this situation as well with everything that's happening.
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