Full Version: Germany's government in deep trouble
After 7 years of a social-democratic-green government the coalition parties lose state election after state election. Two weeks ago Gerhard Schröder baffled most Germans, the Opposition as well as the Green Party by announcing that the federal election for 2006 will be brought forward to fall 2005. Schröder hopes to do this by asking the parliament for a vote of confidence, which he hopes to fail.
Article
For those who are not very familiar with the German parliamentary system.
Suggested questions for debate:
Is it time for a new government? Has the duo Schröder-Fischer hit rock bottom?
After serving 7 years in office, what impression do you have of Gerhard Schröder?
In what way might the probable Liberal-Christian Democratic government choose a different path in governing Germany, in respects of the German-American relations for example?
Article
For those who are not very familiar with the German parliamentary system.
Suggested questions for debate:
Is it time for a new government? Has the duo Schröder-Fischer hit rock bottom?
After serving 7 years in office, what impression do you have of Gerhard Schröder?
In what way might the probable Liberal-Christian Democratic government choose a different path in governing Germany, in respects of the German-American relations for example?
QUOTE
Is it time for a new government? Has the duo Schröder-Fischer hit rock bottom?
Past time for a new government. Way past time. They hit rock bottom so long ago it is not even funny. Five million german's are unemployed and what can they do? Nothing. They are stepping out of the spotlight to make way for people who will take action against key issues the social democrats have chosen to ignore. Schröder's government could be compared to later-Clinton years. He chose to ignore Iraq because he was so close to leaving he would leave it to his successor. Schröder is getting close to leaving, with calling a vote a year earlier he is making it even more so: so his thought process must be must finish the race, must finish the race. If he leaves office without addressing the issue it is almost as if an issue never existed, but if he takes it on he will only fall more out of step with the German people. He hit rock bottom by not helping save the unemployed long ago when he had the maneuverability to do so.
QUOTE
After serving 7 years in office, what impression do you have of Gerhard Schröder?
A man in love with himself just as much as he loves Germany.
QUOTE
In what way might the probable Liberal-Christian Democratic government choose a different path in governing Germany, in respects of the German-American relations for example?
My limited information tells me they might actually support some of America's decisions to lawfully declare war on other nations and might just offer more support for the war on terror.
Just an update:
That was in May 2005, for June 2005 it looks like the Christian Democratic Party doesn't even need a coalition partner, a very odd development for a proportional voting system.
New polls indicate the following:
48 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
9 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
---
4 % Socialists
(Germany has a 5% barrier, to receive less than 5 % of the votes leads to a discarding of those votes)
A coalition of Liberals and Christian Democrats would almost have a constitutional changing majority, which they also almost have in the second parliamentary chamber. A constitutional modifying majority in both chambers is a lot of power in the hands of a few party politicians.
In the election campaign in 2002 the opposition was partly supportive of a military campaign against Iraq under the premise of a UN mandate. Since the then (and now) party leader Angela Merkel is the chosen candidate for Chancellory, and her support of an US invasion in Iraq, Germany may become more involved after a successful election.
QUOTE
Opinion polls have suggested that Mrs Merkel's conservatives would poll 45 per cent of the vote, compared with 30 per cent for the Social Democrats. However, a majority of Germans said they would prefer Mr Schröder to remain Chancellor if given the choice between candidates.
That was in May 2005, for June 2005 it looks like the Christian Democratic Party doesn't even need a coalition partner, a very odd development for a proportional voting system.
New polls indicate the following:
48 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
9 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
---
4 % Socialists
(Germany has a 5% barrier, to receive less than 5 % of the votes leads to a discarding of those votes)
A coalition of Liberals and Christian Democrats would almost have a constitutional changing majority, which they also almost have in the second parliamentary chamber. A constitutional modifying majority in both chambers is a lot of power in the hands of a few party politicians.
QUOTE
My limited information tells me they might actually support some of America's decisions to lawfully declare war on other nations and might just offer more support for the war on terror.
In the election campaign in 2002 the opposition was partly supportive of a military campaign against Iraq under the premise of a UN mandate. Since the then (and now) party leader Angela Merkel is the chosen candidate for Chancellory, and her support of an US invasion in Iraq, Germany may become more involved after a successful election.
QUOTE(Sevac @ Jun 3 2005, 05:54 AM)
Just an update:
That was in May 2005, for June 2005 it looks like the Christian Democratic Party doesn't even need a coalition partner, a very odd development for a proportional voting system.
New polls indicate the following:
48 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
9 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
---
4 % Socialists
(Germany has a 5% barrier, to receive less than 5 % of the votes leads to a discarding of those votes)
A coalition of Liberals and Christian Democrats would almost have a constitutional changing majority, which they also almost have in the second parliamentary chamber. A constitutional modifying majority in both chambers is a lot of power in the hands of a few party politicians.
In the election campaign in 2002 the opposition was partly supportive of a military campaign against Iraq under the premise of a UN mandate. Since the then (and now) party leader Angela Merkel is the chosen candidate for Chancellory, and her support of an US invasion in Iraq, Germany may become more involved after a successful election.
QUOTE
Opinion polls have suggested that Mrs Merkel's conservatives would poll 45 per cent of the vote, compared with 30 per cent for the Social Democrats. However, a majority of Germans said they would prefer Mr Schröder to remain Chancellor if given the choice between candidates.
That was in May 2005, for June 2005 it looks like the Christian Democratic Party doesn't even need a coalition partner, a very odd development for a proportional voting system.
New polls indicate the following:
48 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
9 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
---
4 % Socialists
(Germany has a 5% barrier, to receive less than 5 % of the votes leads to a discarding of those votes)
A coalition of Liberals and Christian Democrats would almost have a constitutional changing majority, which they also almost have in the second parliamentary chamber. A constitutional modifying majority in both chambers is a lot of power in the hands of a few party politicians.
QUOTE
My limited information tells me they might actually support some of America's decisions to lawfully declare war on other nations and might just offer more support for the war on terror.
In the election campaign in 2002 the opposition was partly supportive of a military campaign against Iraq under the premise of a UN mandate. Since the then (and now) party leader Angela Merkel is the chosen candidate for Chancellory, and her support of an US invasion in Iraq, Germany may become more involved after a successful election.
That's wonderful news. Perhaps the German people are seeing the light of freedom in the middle east and what good news that would be for Europe and the entire world?
Of anyone on the planet, the Germans should be acutely aware that failing to stand up to people like Saddam Hussein is a long-term disaster and that confronting such regimes before they become world-class deadly is a good idea.
I'm also heartened to see that the greens and socialists are so much in the minority.
They are on the fringes where they belong in my opinion.
QUOTE(lordhelmet @ Jun 3 2005, 06:36 AM)
Of anyone on the planet, the Germans should be acutely aware that failing to stand up to people like Saddam Hussein is a long-term disaster and that confronting such regimes before they become world-class deadly is a good idea.
I'm also heartened to see that the greens and socialists are so much in the minority.
They are on the fringes where they belong in my opinion.
I'm also heartened to see that the greens and socialists are so much in the minority.
They are on the fringes where they belong in my opinion.
Of anyone else on the planet, Germans are indeed acutely aware that unprovoked aggression against sovereign countries leads to disaster - which explains their (and Europeans in general) pacifist stance.
Greens "belong to the fringes"? Protecting an environment, what an extremist idea!
If Angela Merkel listens to her electorate, the majority of her changes (if she becomes elected) will be in the domestic policy, not in the foreign policy. Interestingly enough, the voters punish Schroeders mostly for his attempts to reform Germany's huge juggernaut of a welfare system, not realizing that the CDU's proposed reforms will put them through even greater hardship and misery:
QUOTE
CDU candidates played up the weak economic numbers in their election campaign, but they were careful not to promise anything. Analysts say that's because they, and their likely coalition partners in the Free Democratic Party (FDP), will probably propose even tougher reforms.
"Many voters who don't like the difficulties the reforms are putting them through, don't even realize that it could be more difficult under a CDU and FDP government," says Mr. Holtmann. "It's an abstract point for them."
That's why Schröder will push the CDU to offer more than criticism of his reform agenda.
The CDU's likely candidate, Angela Merkel, has been billed by some as an east German Margaret Thatcher, who favors even tougher changes in the labor market.
"Many voters who don't like the difficulties the reforms are putting them through, don't even realize that it could be more difficult under a CDU and FDP government," says Mr. Holtmann. "It's an abstract point for them."
That's why Schröder will push the CDU to offer more than criticism of his reform agenda.
The CDU's likely candidate, Angela Merkel, has been billed by some as an east German Margaret Thatcher, who favors even tougher changes in the labor market.
QUOTE
That was in May 2005, for June 2005 it looks like the Christian Democratic Party doesn't even need a coalition partner, a very odd development for a proportional voting system.
New polls indicate the following:
48 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
9 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
---
4 % Socialists
(Germany has a 5% barrier, to receive less than 5 % of the votes leads to a discarding of those votes)
New polls indicate the following:
48 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
9 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
---
4 % Socialists
(Germany has a 5% barrier, to receive less than 5 % of the votes leads to a discarding of those votes)
Well, the late-breaking news is that the Socialists and leftist Social-Democrats have agreed to cooperate in the upcoming elections, forming an alliance to oppose the "neoliberal" reforms that Schröder has implemented.
That lead to a somewhat new development poll-wise:
46 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
8 % Green Party
8 % Left Alliance/Socialists
7 % Liberal Democrats
---:link
For the first time in history there is a significant movement left of the Social Democrats. Too bad this movement is based on the Socialists that ran the one-party system in the German Democratic Republic.
QUOTE
Interestingly enough, the voters punish Schroeders mostly for his attempts to reform Germany's huge juggernaut of a welfare system, not realizing that the CDU's proposed reforms will put them through even greater hardship and misery:
Indeed. Yet I believe the problem with Schröder was that he did not have a vision or a goal that he wanted to tackle during his time in office. People did not understand why it is that the system needs to be reformed. Instead of doing a little here and there, the reforms should have been based on common grounds and been implemented together, for a short deep cut is not as bad as a cronic wound that gets treatment once in a while but doesn't heal.
QUOTE(Sevac @ Jun 18 2005, 08:47 AM)
46 % Christian Democratic Union
28 % Social Democrats
8 % Green Party
8 % Left Alliance/Socialists
7 % Liberal Democrats
28 % Social Democrats
8 % Green Party
8 % Left Alliance/Socialists
7 % Liberal Democrats
Time passes rapidly and the upcoming election day [September 18th] prompts definite changes in the German Party System.
As of August 3rd polls indicate a Christian-Social Democratic coalition [grand coalition]:
43 % Christian Democratic Union
26 % Social Democrats
8 % Green Party
7 % Liberal Democrats
___and___
13 % Left Wings/Socialists.
Who would have thought? Marx is up and running for office
. Where does this development lead Germany?
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