Ted:
Why are you limiting the threat to that of death, since this isn't about death? This is about life and on what terms we plan on living that life.
If I may borrow from our Polish friend, John Sobieski, who in September of 1683 brought himself and roughly 60,000 Christian fighters to Vienna, to meet an Ottoman Muslim army of roughly 250,000: "It is not a city alone that we have to save, but the whole of Christianity, of which the city of Vienna is the bulwark. This war is a holy one."
It has been a "holy war" for roughly 1,300 years. In 670 AD/CE, the army of the Umayyad caliph attacked Constantinople [Istanbul]. Constantinople was the capital of the Christian Byzantine Empire. The seige of Constantinople lasted seven years, with eventual Muslim withdrawal. In the meantime, Islam was being spread via conquest across Byzantine ruled North Africa, from Egypt to Morocco. They "converted" the Berbers [or Moors]. In 711, the Berbers/Moors invaded the Iberian peninsula [Spain and Portugal] and by 715 had conquered most of Iberia. In 721, the Moors crossed the Pyrenees and attacked the southernmost dukedom of the Franks, Aquataine. Following their defeat, they continued to raid, and then in 732, Aquataine was attacked once again. The Moors were victorious on that occasion and sacked the city of Bordeaux and burned the cathedral at Poitiers. To the rescue came Charles aka Martel [the "hammer"]. He and his army of Franks defeated the Moors at the Battle of Tours in either 732 or 733 [we're not sure of the exact date]. The Battle of Tours came to be known to Christian/Western civilization as THE battle that stopped the Moors' [Muslims'] further advance into Europe. But the Moors continued to raid France, with such raids only ending when the Moors in North Africa decided to stage their own uprising. The period of raiding ended around 740. To finish with Iberia, the Moors ruled for another 700 years until, ironically enough, in the very year that Columbus sailed for the New World, Christians expelled the last of the Muslim Moors from Spain.
Back to the Near East. Following the Umayyad defeat at Constantinople in 750, the Abbasids took the reigns of power of the Muslim empire [caliphate], with their capital in, of all places, Baghdad. Thereafter, in 900 or so, the Abbasid caliphate splintered into several caliphates, but that did not stop Muslim conquest, and here think Sicily and India. Sicily was under Muslim control for nearly 300 years. And if certain historians are correct, the Holocaust perpetrated against the Hindus makes the Holocaust perpetrated by the Germans look like a schoolyard brawl [a number of instances of Muslim recorded massacres of between 50,000 - 100,000 Hindus in a day].
Now, to briefly introduce what I left out above, the Muslims had already taken what was then Christian Palestine. So in the 11th century, European kings and popes decided to retake Jerusalem and the rest of the Holy Land. We call those attempts the Crusades. The first Crusade succeeded in retaking Jerusalem, and it was held for roughly 100 years, until the Muslims retook the Jerusalem, etc. Then, a previous unknown entered the stage and upset the applecart [as it were]. In 1258, the Mongol "hordes" captured Baghdad and massacred its population. And so ended the Muslim caliphate centered, as related, in Baghdad.
Then arose the new Muslim power, the Ottoman Turks. In 1452, the Ottomans beseiged and took Constantinople. And if one cares to learn the lessons of history, then one need remember that the Muslims received prior help in their attempt, as previously, the Franks, the former heroes, launched their own assault on the Byzantine empire while on a Crusade, and they sacked Constantinople and left the Byzantine empire a fragmented shadow of its former self. And so, again, in 1452 the Ottoman Muslims once again beseiged Constantinople and took it. But not only Constantinople, as over the next 100 or so years, the Ottomans went on to take Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Bosnia, Albania, Romania, and Hungary. Then the Ottoman Muslims marched on Vienna in 1529. After being defeated, the Ottomans tried again in 1566. The Ottomans' second attempt also failed, and then 100 years later, we have the third time's the charm attempt and our above-mentioned friend, John Sobieski.
Lucky for us, Sobieski's army was successful and the Ottomans vacated Vienna and environs in defeat. Their seige marked the high point of their empire, and after their defeat, the Ottoman empire entered a period of continual albeit gradual decline. The Ottomans did retain Constantinople aka Istanbul, but one by one, the formerly conquered European countries, or their people, rebelled and reclaimed their independence.
Then, in 1798, comes Napolean and his rule of conquered Egypt. And so began the era of European imperialism in the Muslim world. The Russians took over Central Asia [all of those countries ending with -stan, etc.], the French, North Africa, the British, Egypt, and the Dutch, Indonesia.
Then comes WWI, and with the defeat of Germany, its ally, the Ottoman empire, lost some more of its empire, as the French took Syria and the British took Iraq and Palestine.
And here is where we need to be, since in 1924, a young military officer named Mustafa Kemal Ataturk overthrew the last of the Ottomans and founded the modern nation of Turkey. And here is the key to the whole affair, since for the very first time ever in the history of Islam [1,300 years of history], Mustafa Kemal set up a secular government that separated government from religion. And in his name, the term, Kemalism, was coined. For just what Kemalism is, please see:
http://www.ataturksociety.org/asa/voa/kemalizm.htmlBut before you go there, the foundation of Kemalism: "The foundation of advancement was clear and indisputable: a secular republican democratic system."
And to those who here and elsewhere claim that Osama/Usama and friends have "hijacked" a faith/religion, you could not be more wrong. Osama has stated on any number of occasions, and so have any number of others preaching hatred and intolerance against the West, that he and they would like to see a new Islamic caliphate. And once that is accomplished, then we go back to our 1,300 years of history of warfare between Islam and Christian Europe [and now the US, Canada, and Australia, as well, and we can even toss in the Catholic Philippines]. And as I have said elsewhere on this forum, and as I said above, it isn't about the number of dead, or our deaths, but about our lives and the manner in which we live those lives. Osama & Co. don't believe in Kemalism. As I related on that other thread, Osama and his friends at CAIR want to see a Muslim America wherein the Qur'an and shari'a rule the land. And believe it or not, like it or not, their plan is to infiltrate us first, i.e., to immigrate as much as possible and outbreed us along the way. That way, when the caliphate comes into existence and then becomes strong enough to openly challenge the West, we will not only have to deal with an external enemy, but also with the enemy within. And, no, I am not saying that all Muslims, or even a current majority, hold that view. But one must wonder why, if we are so decadent and so evil, the Saudi Wahabbis are pumping all of this money into the US and Europe to establish mosques, schools, etc., with nearly all of them preaching the same intolerant hatred of all things Western.
And the reason why we are being attacked now is because there are actually two wars going on, the war between Muslim and Christian [or more correctly, Christian, Jewish, pagan, and atheist], and the internal war within Islam, which is between the Osamas, who want to see an Islamic caliphate, and the Kemal Ataturks, who want to see an Islam within a secular, republican, democratic government. So whether those in power were and are aware of the matter or not, the West has taken sides in an internal war within Islam. And so we are being attacked. And, no, they do not expect to defeat us. Instead, they want us to end our support for the Kemal Ataturks of the Muslim world.
And, ironically enough, for those against the Iraq war, the best argument you have is that although Saddam was certainly no Kemal Ataturk, at least he was a secular leader [and one who crushed with a rather ruthless brutality the Osamas], and as evil as he may have been, at least he was preferable to a possible Islamic state [with a majority Shia population, we run the risk of another Iran]. And so, when you hear Dubya and Co. speak of a secular Iraqi government that is all inclusive, you're hearing Dubya speaking the words of Kemal Ataturk. And as should be obvious, that redounds to our benefit in 2 ways, i.e., we hope to Kemalise Islam, and we hope that such puts an end to 1,300 years of warfare between Islam and the West.
Sorry for the quasi-short, quasi-long history lesson, but, again, the question isn't one of merely winning a so-called war on terrorism, the question is one of the future course of the Muslim world, i.e., will there be a new Islamic caliphate that may one day resume it's 1,300 war with the West [Christianity, etc.], or will we see the spread of Kemalism throughout Islam. And the success of that struggle will determine not so much whether we live or die, but how we live. As the Ataturks of America so aptly put the matter:
"The positivist, rational and realistic answer to these questions would be: Theocracy in general, Muslim religion in particular do not allow freedom of thought, democratic society, sovereignty of people, hence advancement. People must have sovereignty in order to be able to be independent and to advance. To challenge secularism is tantamount to endangering the sovereignty of the people (democracy). Once the people are robbed of their sovereignty they will cease pursuing progress."
So if you think that the risk of avian flu is bad now, just wait until we are robbed of our sovereignty and then cease to pursue progress. And, no, I am not intending to dehumanize anyone, but just look at the Muslim world, largely mired in poverty, and when was the last time some new medical or other discovery, invention, what have you, came out of the Muslim world? So this so-called war on terrorism, properly understood, is not simply against the bombing of the no. 9 bus, but against the bombing of the no. 9 bus and in favor of such progress that may one day enable us to eliminate poverty, eliminate the danger of avian flu, and eliminate and/or solve all those other things that you wish to see made better and safer. And, frankly, it's time that we stopped looking at the next five years, or our lifetimes, and instead took the long term view of where are we going to be when it's our children's children's children's children's children's children's children's children's children who have inherited our world. So as Dubya & Co. have been saying, settle down to a long war [and, remember, it's already been 1,300 in progress].
Lastly, so there is no mistake, Constantinople and the Byzantine empire were the first bulward against the Islamic caliphate. With the fall of Constantinople and the Byzantine empire, it became Vienna and the Holy Roman empire. And now, you guessed it, it wasn't simply because of the threat posed by the USSR that Turkey is in NATO. No, not just that, but also because Turkey is now the bulwark. And the debate now raging re Turkey's admission to the EU can be summed up rather simply, to wit, those on the one side who want to see Kemalism succeed, with the bulwark extending outward and across Islam, and who are otherwise willing to risk a change of course, and those who desire the same, but are not willing to take the risk re Turkey once again becoming the caliphate, with all that such entails.
Sorry if that was not the answer you were looking for, but that's the answer to your question, at least when we've taken into account our and their history.