Full Version: The German election
Sept. 18th is the day that the Germans go to the polls to decide if they want to retain Gerhard Schroeder and his Social Democrats party, or switch gears and install Angela Merkel of the Christian Democrats.
There was a debate this past sunday and some pulls have Schroeder winning according to the BBC.
Primer on Germany's political parties.
Schroeder and Merkel debate article.
Questions for debate:
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
Edited to remove color. Sorry nebraska, it was just too hard to read.
There was a debate this past sunday and some pulls have Schroeder winning according to the BBC.
Primer on Germany's political parties.
Schroeder and Merkel debate article.
Questions for debate:
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
Edited to remove color. Sorry nebraska, it was just too hard to read.
I guess I have been following this more than an American is supposed to- being able to talk about candidates in another country that is actually democratic seems to be decidedly un-american these days LOL
so- to answer the questions as best as I can, reading this debate from afar (now I guess I know how folks looking at our unique two party system must feel sometimes LOL)
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
That also depends who wins the brit and french elections in the next couple of years- I know Merkel doesn't favor the curent franco-german position on the EU, and favors more of the Tony Blair style EU- but Chirac is both in ill health and only 2 years left in his position- so the French politics may change as well. I know one thing- both candidates have pledged not to send troops to Iraq. - Shroeder is more anti-US than Merkel in position right now- but Merkels stated campaign issues really doesn't play into American interests either from what I have read- could be wrong, my resources are mostly the BBC, and not in depth enough for sure!
Germany is the number one exporter in the world, yet it has problems with unemployment- which leads me to think, as an outsider, it is still unification oriented problem rather than bad economic decisions.
If they end up in a "grand coalition" to form a goverment- no matter who wins, there will not be alot of change as far as the US is concerned, which is the most likely scenario at this point.
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
Unemployment, unemployment, unemployment. They are in total agreement on the war in Iraq, but the real debate, from where I am sitting, keeps getting back to unemployment, every debate I have read, deals with that issue- and how not to torque off the majority of Germans that demand social services. This seems to be Shroeders real weakness- he has tried to reform some of the social programs.
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
AS above- it really depends on the simultaneous situations in Britain and France- and thier economic situation at the time. In this way- America has been very lucky- if the EU ever were as cohesive as an economy as the US- we would be left in the dust- it is best for America for the EU to be fragmented! Merkel and Blair, and some un named succesor of Chirac may make a very workable EU constitution, and if so, it will probably be bad for the US.
so- to answer the questions as best as I can, reading this debate from afar (now I guess I know how folks looking at our unique two party system must feel sometimes LOL)
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
That also depends who wins the brit and french elections in the next couple of years- I know Merkel doesn't favor the curent franco-german position on the EU, and favors more of the Tony Blair style EU- but Chirac is both in ill health and only 2 years left in his position- so the French politics may change as well. I know one thing- both candidates have pledged not to send troops to Iraq. - Shroeder is more anti-US than Merkel in position right now- but Merkels stated campaign issues really doesn't play into American interests either from what I have read- could be wrong, my resources are mostly the BBC, and not in depth enough for sure!
Germany is the number one exporter in the world, yet it has problems with unemployment- which leads me to think, as an outsider, it is still unification oriented problem rather than bad economic decisions.
If they end up in a "grand coalition" to form a goverment- no matter who wins, there will not be alot of change as far as the US is concerned, which is the most likely scenario at this point.
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
Unemployment, unemployment, unemployment. They are in total agreement on the war in Iraq, but the real debate, from where I am sitting, keeps getting back to unemployment, every debate I have read, deals with that issue- and how not to torque off the majority of Germans that demand social services. This seems to be Shroeders real weakness- he has tried to reform some of the social programs.
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
AS above- it really depends on the simultaneous situations in Britain and France- and thier economic situation at the time. In this way- America has been very lucky- if the EU ever were as cohesive as an economy as the US- we would be left in the dust- it is best for America for the EU to be fragmented! Merkel and Blair, and some un named succesor of Chirac may make a very workable EU constitution, and if so, it will probably be bad for the US.
Germany drastically needs to overhaul it's labour laws. It is currently one of the most expensive places in the world for businesses to operate. As a result, most businesses outsource their manufacturing to Eastern Europe and Germany has massive unemployment problems....
Merkel is more likely to adopt the necessary reforms to fix some of these problems, although there seems to be more doubt that she will adopt the necessary reforms to simultaneously boost domestic demand within Germany.
I think Merkel will win. Schroder simply hasn't done enough for the German economy recently and has always backed down in the face of popular discontent.
The necessary reforms will make Germany look a lot more like the UK or USA in terms of it's economic policies - so a lot of Germans fear ending up with a capitalist dystopia. The negative view of US society promoted by the New Orleans disaster certainly doesn't make reforms towards a more laissez faire capitalsit system seem anymore appealing.
Cruisingram
I agree, Iraq is not really an issue in Europe any more. Britain got involved, no-one else did and given the current state of affairs in the country (especially given that the US and UK are trying to get troops out) I doubt there will be any change of heart there.
However, I think Schroders weakness was not that he tried to reform the social programs, it is that he made a half-hearted effort and backed down. Reform is the only way to get employment back up and most Germans have reluctantly accepted that. Merkel is regarded as far more reform-minded than Schroder..
No way! We (I'm European) aren't economic competitors with the US, we're partners...! Having an economically strong Europe would create greater demand for American exports and also produce European exports that might be beneficial to US consumers... it would certainly be more beneficial to the US to have another 'economic engine' driving the world economy..
Merkel is more likely to adopt the necessary reforms to fix some of these problems, although there seems to be more doubt that she will adopt the necessary reforms to simultaneously boost domestic demand within Germany.
I think Merkel will win. Schroder simply hasn't done enough for the German economy recently and has always backed down in the face of popular discontent.
The necessary reforms will make Germany look a lot more like the UK or USA in terms of it's economic policies - so a lot of Germans fear ending up with a capitalist dystopia. The negative view of US society promoted by the New Orleans disaster certainly doesn't make reforms towards a more laissez faire capitalsit system seem anymore appealing.
Cruisingram
I agree, Iraq is not really an issue in Europe any more. Britain got involved, no-one else did and given the current state of affairs in the country (especially given that the US and UK are trying to get troops out) I doubt there will be any change of heart there.
However, I think Schroders weakness was not that he tried to reform the social programs, it is that he made a half-hearted effort and backed down. Reform is the only way to get employment back up and most Germans have reluctantly accepted that. Merkel is regarded as far more reform-minded than Schroder..
QUOTE
In this way- America has been very lucky- if the EU ever were as cohesive as an economy as the US- we would be left in the dust- it is best for America for the EU to be fragmented! Merkel and Blair, and some un named succesor of Chirac may make a very workable EU constitution, and if so, it will probably be bad for the US
No way! We (I'm European) aren't economic competitors with the US, we're partners...! Having an economically strong Europe would create greater demand for American exports and also produce European exports that might be beneficial to US consumers... it would certainly be more beneficial to the US to have another 'economic engine' driving the world economy..
Hmmm- I am not sure if this is off topic- since the question is "1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?"
But I disagree- EU and US are natural - well not enemies, but competitors for opening markets- and countries like Germany have been kicking butt in opening formely closed or difficult markets ( almost 2 years ago I told poeple after visiting Germany and Russia that Germany was going to become the worlds biggest exporter, no one believed me LOL)- they pretty much dominate the Russia consumer market- every store is filled with German goods. They got to the former communist south pacific markests first as well, at least in grabbing huge market shares.
America imports, EU exports- America has a trade deficit it wants to change, EU wants to keep it's exports high- definate area for conflict.
Fossil fuel consumption- wow, there is going to be enormous room for conflict there, and real soon I think LOL- with Americans being so ignorant about the global oil market, even folks on this board have misunderstood the significance of the way the global supply of oil works and opening domestic drilling's impact on that supply- such as ANWR. I can see forces in the US wanting to "nationalize" our oil supplies- and mostly EU countries OWN the rights to that oil- ANWR oil leases are 98% owned already by BP and Totalfinaelf- EU companies- can you see some serious conflict there?
We are more partner-ish as long as the EU is divided, but if it comes together, the US will not be able to exploit that, and many of the US's muscle to force economic change on others will decline- another HUGE source of potential conflict!
But I disagree- EU and US are natural - well not enemies, but competitors for opening markets- and countries like Germany have been kicking butt in opening formely closed or difficult markets ( almost 2 years ago I told poeple after visiting Germany and Russia that Germany was going to become the worlds biggest exporter, no one believed me LOL)- they pretty much dominate the Russia consumer market- every store is filled with German goods. They got to the former communist south pacific markests first as well, at least in grabbing huge market shares.
America imports, EU exports- America has a trade deficit it wants to change, EU wants to keep it's exports high- definate area for conflict.
Fossil fuel consumption- wow, there is going to be enormous room for conflict there, and real soon I think LOL- with Americans being so ignorant about the global oil market, even folks on this board have misunderstood the significance of the way the global supply of oil works and opening domestic drilling's impact on that supply- such as ANWR. I can see forces in the US wanting to "nationalize" our oil supplies- and mostly EU countries OWN the rights to that oil- ANWR oil leases are 98% owned already by BP and Totalfinaelf- EU companies- can you see some serious conflict there?
We are more partner-ish as long as the EU is divided, but if it comes together, the US will not be able to exploit that, and many of the US's muscle to force economic change on others will decline- another HUGE source of potential conflict!
I am really interested in this election. It is very very important..I believe..to the Europe as a whole and independently.
I read that nearly 30% of German voters are still undecided. So trying to predict the election is very tricky.
I am not convinced from my own knowledge of Germans and their culture and my experiences in Germany that Germans are all that keen on this whole capitalism thing...and rather than seeing their reluctance to become more capitalistic ..like the US or the UK as their failure I believe more or less they feel they have not implemented the socialist system enough. So I don't think Merkel's message..that more reform or capitalism is going to work. I don't believe she will win..instead I think they will have a coalition...OR maybe just maybe Schroeder will surprise us. The last one being a very big maybe but something I do feel is possible.
With Katrina in the US and the utter failures it exposed of our political system..it will probably reinforce this belief that more capitalism and more loosening of the markets will only further cause pain and suffering rather than the opposite.
Many Germans and continental Europeans as a whole don't feel the economic system the US or the UK has is all that impressive or something they desire.
Welcome Beetlemeetle
QUOTE
However, I think Schroders weakness was not that he tried to reform the social programs, it is that he made a half-hearted effort and backed down. Reform is the only way to get employment back up and most Germans have reluctantly accepted that. Merkel is regarded as far more reform-minded than Schroder.
Yeah but that was not Schroeder's weakness alone..it is his coalition who includes the Green Party who have consistently voted down any meaningful reforms. I think people in Germany also know that if the two parties..the CDU and the SDP... had to form a coalition that much of what Merkel is promising would not get done either. So that makes her safer. So I have to disagree I think that Schroeder personally is not so much seen as a failure to reform..I think his choice of coalition partners..the Greens is where the failure rests.
I believe most Germans would be accepting of a CDU/CSU/SDP coalition than they are of a continuance of a SDP/Green coalition. I believe Schroeder himself is still well liked and that many Germans seem impressed with his political abilities as Chancellor.
I have to agree with Bucket big time on this one- Americans find it hard to understand the parliamentary system, because we don't have a gazillion parties and rules about how to take seats in Parliament and such- personally, I think the system is better- because the #1 guy in power HAS to forma coalition to rule- so there is no talk of "bi-partisonism" and such, because the entire goverment must work or fail.
And I think, given that system, despite the personal popularity and charisma of someone like Shroeder (sp) - he can still lose because of who he picks for a coalition partner. Merkel will have to form a coalition with Schroedor in order to have a goverment at all- and I think German voters instintively know this- so any "reform" will have to go through Schroeders party ANYWAY- so why buy the one guy (or woman in this case) when you get what you want anyway by simply forcing a coaltion of your choice ?
And I think, given that system, despite the personal popularity and charisma of someone like Shroeder (sp) - he can still lose because of who he picks for a coalition partner. Merkel will have to form a coalition with Schroedor in order to have a goverment at all- and I think German voters instintively know this- so any "reform" will have to go through Schroeders party ANYWAY- so why buy the one guy (or woman in this case) when you get what you want anyway by simply forcing a coaltion of your choice ?
QUOTE(nebraska29 @ Sep 9 2005, 03:08 AM)
Questions for debate:
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
1.) I have a strong feeling that, although Schroder is slowly catching up, Merkel is going to win the elections. I think it is going to be a healthy change of leadership. Schroder has been Bundeskanzler for more than 7 years, it is time for a fresh start.
I don't think Merkel and her party will change the Germany's international policy drastically. I also don't think that the relationship between Germany and the U.S. will change a lot.
2.) As others already pointed out ..... UNEMPLOYMENT! Solving this problem is not going to be easy, no matter if your Merkel, Schroder or Superman. I think Cruisingram hit an important aspect of the unemployment issue.
QUOTE
Germany is the number one exporter in the world, yet it has problems with unemployment- which leads me to think, as an outsider, it is still unification oriented problem rather than bad economic decisions.
3.) I don't see any dramatical change in German foreign policy for the near future
Merkel, like Schroder, will most likely focus her attention on the unification of Europe. I don't forsee an immediate or dramatical change of attitude towards France. I think more or less will stay the same.
For Germany, I hope that reform plans of Merkel will work out, but it is hard to say if they will.
CruisingRam, I am surprised by your very good analysis. Some still seem to be interested in whats going in other countries than their own.
As for beetlemeetle's comment:
Germany has the lowest rise in labour wages than any other grand EU-nation.
It is among the countries with the fewest strike days.
It has the best infrastructure in all EU-countries, not only roads, but electrical lines (fewest minutes of blackouts) and a good educational system (FREE UNIVERSITIES) and thus bright and motivated human capital (as much as I hate that word). Additionally, businesses need to show an ecological and social conscience... OH MY GOD! THOSE POOR BUSINESS OWNERS.
So Germany may have quite high operating costs for a business. But you can be sure it the jobs will be done efficiently and without interruption or sudden surprises.
It's a shame businesses only look one way at numbers.
Questions for debate:
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
The CDU/CSU will win, but not be able to form a coalition with their favorite partner - the Liberal Democrats
.
The SPD under Schröder is catching up quite nicely - meaning that the grand coalition is the most likely result of the election. This however won't be a dramatic change as has been pointed out in earlier posts, as the German Federal System already operates as a grand coalition between the heads of the federal states (dominantely CDU) and the currently SPD/Green dominated parliament. Merkel and the CDU have to rely on their coalition partner and thus step down from their ambitions plans to institute a neoliberal system in Germany.
The Socialist party will most likely be number 3 in that order, for they are going to be the winning party in all new states (which constituted the GDR for that matter).
The relations to the US of A under Merkel will unclench somewhat, mainly because there is no history between Merkel and Bush.
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
The best way to reduce the alerting amount of unemployed people. That more than anything. The fate of the then-elected government will be determined by the success in battleing that problem.
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
Turkey will have a very hard time to become a EU member. -which I do not disapprove-, and Germany may search to gain more influence in the EU.
As for the effect on Germany I am (as most of my Germans) very doubtful that there will be any short time effect.
In the long run, the Christian Democrats are on the way of cutting support and social standards for the minorities as students, workers, the poor and needy. Doing that by increasing the sales tax by 2 percentpoints, by introducing the flat income tax and cutting almost all tax breaks.
As for beetlemeetle's comment:
QUOTE
Germany drastically needs to overhaul it's labour laws. It is currently one of the most expensive places in the world for businesses to operate. As a result, most businesses outsource their manufacturing to Eastern Europe and Germany has massive unemployment problems
Germany has the lowest rise in labour wages than any other grand EU-nation.
It is among the countries with the fewest strike days.
It has the best infrastructure in all EU-countries, not only roads, but electrical lines (fewest minutes of blackouts) and a good educational system (FREE UNIVERSITIES) and thus bright and motivated human capital (as much as I hate that word). Additionally, businesses need to show an ecological and social conscience... OH MY GOD! THOSE POOR BUSINESS OWNERS.
So Germany may have quite high operating costs for a business. But you can be sure it the jobs will be done efficiently and without interruption or sudden surprises.
It's a shame businesses only look one way at numbers.
Questions for debate:
1.)Who will win the election and what does it portend for the United States?
The CDU/CSU will win, but not be able to form a coalition with their favorite partner - the Liberal Democrats
. The SPD under Schröder is catching up quite nicely - meaning that the grand coalition is the most likely result of the election. This however won't be a dramatic change as has been pointed out in earlier posts, as the German Federal System already operates as a grand coalition between the heads of the federal states (dominantely CDU) and the currently SPD/Green dominated parliament. Merkel and the CDU have to rely on their coalition partner and thus step down from their ambitions plans to institute a neoliberal system in Germany.
The Socialist party will most likely be number 3 in that order, for they are going to be the winning party in all new states (which constituted the GDR for that matter).
The relations to the US of A under Merkel will unclench somewhat, mainly because there is no history between Merkel and Bush.
2.)What major issues will decide who wins?
The best way to reduce the alerting amount of unemployed people. That more than anything. The fate of the then-elected government will be determined by the success in battleing that problem.
3.)What will the election mean for Germany and the EU?
Turkey will have a very hard time to become a EU member. -which I do not disapprove-, and Germany may search to gain more influence in the EU.
As for the effect on Germany I am (as most of my Germans) very doubtful that there will be any short time effect.
In the long run, the Christian Democrats are on the way of cutting support and social standards for the minorities as students, workers, the poor and needy. Doing that by increasing the sales tax by 2 percentpoints, by introducing the flat income tax and cutting almost all tax breaks.
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/news/0,1567,12215_0,00.html
As it turns out, the early elections were not very helpful for a definite change in politics.
Chancellor Schröder as well as Candidate Angela Merkel see themselves as winners:
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/news/0,1567,12215_1,00.html
To build a new stable government will be the hardest part:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4259612.stm
The main factor for this stalemate seems to be the sharp increase in votes for the Leftist Party, who were able to double their votes and add 51 Seats to their 2 Seats in the pre-election Parliament.
Still, this Sunday was celebrated by Gerhard Schröder and his SPD as if he were the sole and definate winner of this election:
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/internatio...,375294,00.html
Although the Christian Democrats have are 0.9 percent ahead of the SPD and Schröder, he claimed victory and promised "a stable government for the next four years under my leadership."
Truly surprising all expectations, he argued that he will lead the most likely grand coalition although his party has received less votes than the competing CDU. He will remain chancellor, because his opponents lost dramatically from polls three months ago, and are in complete disarray after these unexpected low figures.
QUOTE
Germany's parliamentary election has ended in a stalemate, plunging the country into political uncertainty. Preliminary final results give the Christian Democratic Union, led by Angela Merkel, together with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, 35.2 percent of the vote. Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats won 34.3 percent. This gives the conservatives, who had started the campaign with a 21-point lead, just three more seats than the SPD in the Bundestag. The CDU's preferred coalition partner, the Free Democrats took 9.8 percent of the vote leaving the CDU and the FDP short of the majority needed to form a government. The junior coalition partners in Chancellor Schröder's government, the Greens took 8.1 percent, which also leaves the current coalition well short of a majority. The new Left party, won 8.7 percent.
As it turns out, the early elections were not very helpful for a definite change in politics.
Chancellor Schröder as well as Candidate Angela Merkel see themselves as winners:
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/news/0,1567,12215_1,00.html
To build a new stable government will be the hardest part:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4259612.stm
The main factor for this stalemate seems to be the sharp increase in votes for the Leftist Party, who were able to double their votes and add 51 Seats to their 2 Seats in the pre-election Parliament.
Still, this Sunday was celebrated by Gerhard Schröder and his SPD as if he were the sole and definate winner of this election:
http://service.spiegel.de/cache/internatio...,375294,00.html
Although the Christian Democrats have are 0.9 percent ahead of the SPD and Schröder, he claimed victory and promised "a stable government for the next four years under my leadership."
Truly surprising all expectations, he argued that he will lead the most likely grand coalition although his party has received less votes than the competing CDU. He will remain chancellor, because his opponents lost dramatically from polls three months ago, and are in complete disarray after these unexpected low figures.
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