Full Version: What GOP problems will help democrats the most?
With the 2006 mid-term elections upon us, I can't help but smile at what the GOP has handed the democrats. Here's a short synopsis.
First, there is word that an indictment is coming against top level Bush administration members over Plamegate.
Second, Bill Frist is being investigated for his "blind" trust-fund that he supposedly did not know about(i.e.-the day to day actions of it, etc.) On top of that, news is now coming out that he has profited handsomely off of it.
Third, you have an indicted Tom DeLay wounded, but still calling the shots in D.C. for the GOP. After taking quite a hit, this guy still is their #1 man in that town.
Fourth, James Dobson has admitted to viewing confidential information regarding Harriet Miers. Dobsongate is a new thing, but it still has the air of impropriety.
Fifth, The GOP is facing problems with 2006 already. In North Dakota, Kent Conrad will run unopposed and a Republican polster is quoted as saying "The wind is not at our backs, it's in our faces." Not only that, but many potential powerful GOP candidates for senate in various states are balking at the suggestion of running.
With all this being said, here is the debate questions:
What issue(s) will deliver the 2006 elections to the democrats?
Which issues above are the most damaging? Which would be the most likely to be deflected?
Will the media do a decent job on these issues and sticking them to the responsible people in them?
First, there is word that an indictment is coming against top level Bush administration members over Plamegate.
Second, Bill Frist is being investigated for his "blind" trust-fund that he supposedly did not know about(i.e.-the day to day actions of it, etc.) On top of that, news is now coming out that he has profited handsomely off of it.
Third, you have an indicted Tom DeLay wounded, but still calling the shots in D.C. for the GOP. After taking quite a hit, this guy still is their #1 man in that town.
Fourth, James Dobson has admitted to viewing confidential information regarding Harriet Miers. Dobsongate is a new thing, but it still has the air of impropriety.
Fifth, The GOP is facing problems with 2006 already. In North Dakota, Kent Conrad will run unopposed and a Republican polster is quoted as saying "The wind is not at our backs, it's in our faces." Not only that, but many potential powerful GOP candidates for senate in various states are balking at the suggestion of running.
With all this being said, here is the debate questions:
What issue(s) will deliver the 2006 elections to the democrats?
Which issues above are the most damaging? Which would be the most likely to be deflected?
Will the media do a decent job on these issues and sticking them to the responsible people in them?
I think the combination of ethics and political problems the republican leadership has been having of late (Santorum, Frist, DeLay, Rove) and the anger over Iraq is what is going to help the democrats gain some senate and house seats. I think that winning a majority isnt realistic though in either house. I think the democrats will net 1 or 2 senate seats (as many as 4) and as many as 5 house seats and will pick up some governor offices in places like Mass. and New York for sure but will have to defend some contested seats like in Kansas and Wisconsin and a few others.
First I am noticing the 05 elections in New Jersey and Virginia in the gubernatorial contests.
In Virginia Democrat Lt. Gov Tim Kaine is polling about even (and dominating the debates) with Republican Att. Gen Jerry Kilgore in this very red state. Granted that Kaine is popular Gov. Warner's protege and that a republican independant (Pitts) is also in the election to take some support from Kilgore......but I think this race will shed some light into what may happen in the 06 elections. Right now Kaine is the slight underdog.
In New Jersey. Senator Corzine is running against Republican businessman Doug Forrester and this race is also polling neck and neck in some polls. However, I still think that Corzine is the clear favorite and that New Jersey races tend to seem closer then they are like in the 04 presidential election. Corzine was up 20 points just a month ago. I think he (Corzine) will win a 4-5 point victory.
These races I think are important coming into the 06 elections even though they are just governor posts.
The republicans are also having a hard time recruiting top tier candidates. Even in my state former Gov. Jim Edgar passed on the chance to oust Gov. Rod Blagoevich. Which although I am a democrat I find sad because Blago. is a bum and I would have voted for Edgar. That being said I will not vote for Gidwitz or Rauchenberger who are now two of the biggest republican names left.
After all that babbling
For national democrats the important races are of course in the senate.
Pickings are not as good as hoped but democrats have put up solid talent in the seats they have a chance at.
For Republicans.
Lugar is safe in Indiana
Snowe is safe in Maine
Lott is safe in Mississippi
Hutchinson is safe in Texas
Hatch or any republican who runs is safe in Utah
Allen is safe in Virginia......would think it would be funny if Ben Affleck ran though
Thomas is safe in Wyoming
Ensign is safe in Nevada as well as Jimmy Carter's son isnt going to beat him
Now the not safe but looking strong to remain republican seats.
Kyl in Arizona. He is facing a very wealthy democrat in Jim Pederson who can match him dollar for dollar and this is a race to keep an eye on but I find it unlikely that Arizona would send someone as liberal as Peterson to the senate.
In Tennessee with Frist stepping down Rep. Harold Ford jr will be running against former congressman Ed Bryant or Van Hilleary. Ford is a big name but is as of right now the underdog but this is a seat I think we have a chance at.
Now here are the target seats that the democrats need to attack hard.
Senator Talent in Missouri has been unremarkable and republican governor Blunt is not very popular at all. In addition the democrats have recruited a top tier candiate in St Auditor Claire McCaskill. early polls showed this race to be a tie as of now. This is the same Caire McCaskill who unseated democratic incumbant Bob Holden in the democratic primary. This seat is a must have.
Dewine's seat in Ohio is also a must. The democrats have recruited Army Veteran Paul Hackett and popular congressman Sherrod Brown. Early polls showed that both were polling higher then an unpopular Dewine who has been shunned by national republicans the NRA and is attached to an unpopular Republican party in Ohio which has the Governor with the lowest approval rating in the nation in Bob Taft at like 14%.
In Pennsylvania I think Santorum is done against St. Treasurer and democratic moderate Bob Casey Jr. Polls show as much. I am already counting this as a pickup.
In Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee is looking okay in current polls against democratic challengers but he is always one step away from the grave yard in this liberal state. Bush is massively unpopular and in order for Chafee to win he must distance himself heavily from Bush which will only anger national republicans in the process. He is in the middle of a rock and a hard place. He is also getting a primary challenge this time from a conservative republican as well in Stephen Laffey. This will hurt him as he will have to prove conservative enough for mainstream Rhode Island republicans BUT not go too far right to hurt himself in the general against either Democrat Sec of St Matt Brown or Ex- Att. General Sheldon Whitehouse. This is a possible pick-up. Heck even if Chafee wins the general (which he is a slight favorite to do) maybe he will make a party switch?
In Montana I think this race could turn into a shocker as this is one of the few states (other then Colorado and Illinois) that Democrats have done well in in the past few years. Conrad Burns is not overly popular (not as popular as Montana Dems. Schweitzer and Baucus) and he is facing one of two solid democratic candidates in either State Auditor John Morrison or State Senate president Jon Tester. Early polling shows low name recognition for both and an early and solid size lead for Burns but I know that will shrink as the race truly gets underway. This leans Burns but is should be a target and can be won.
The democrats need to defend their current senate seats as much as possible.
Lieberman is a lock in Conn.
Carper is a lock in Delaware
Akaka is a lock in Hawaii
Kennedy a lock in Mass.
Clinton a lock in New York
Bernie Sanders is a lock in Vermont. Not a democrat but he is on our side.
These are our locks.
The next series are seats that I fully expect to remain democrat.
Feinstein in California
Bingaman in New Mexico
Conrad in N. Dakota....given that Hoeven passed.
Byrd in West Virginia given that Capito passed
Kohl in Wisconsin ....but if Tommy Thompson runs we should worry
The next series are vulnerable but democrats still have the advantage as of now.
Nelson in Florida. Katherine Harris is looking like the republican nominee and that is good for Nelson. Congressman Mark Foley has shown interest in running though and this seat would become more competitive if that happened. Nelson would still be the slight favorite if he ran though and Harris is very divisive and even national republicans are refusing to truly endorse her.
In Michigan Senator Stabenow looked vulnerable but republicans have not found anyone to run against her and her numbers have rebounded and she has huge leads over potential republican opponents.
In Washington Cantwell is also potentially vulnerable but republicans have not recruited any big names to face her. Her likely opponent will either be businessman Mike McGavick or Diane Tebelius. I think polls give Cantwell a slight lead over the two but this will be close I think and one that we must keep.
In Nebraska Senator Nelson dodged a bullet when Tom Osborne decided to jump into the governor race and when popular Ex-Gov. Mike Johanns was named agriculture secretary by Bush. This state (as you know) is extremely red but Nelson is currently the favorite.
In New Jersey (with Corzine running for Gov) the democratic nominee with be one of these 4 congressman. Rob Andrews, Bob Menendez, Bill Pascrell or Frank Pallone. I suspect Andrews if he runs. He will in all probably face Tom Kean Jr who is the son of ex-Gov Tom Kean. This democratic leaning state will probably remain in our hands.
In Maryland the race will be close with Sarbanes retiring. Polls indicate the race will probably be between Democratic congressman Ben Cardin and Republican Lt Gov. Michael Steele. Steele is a black republican which is a hot commodity for them and they will pour millions into this race which Cardin has been leading in with small amounts. Steele may be too conservative for this seat in the end though. This is one we need to keep.
In Minnesota with Dayton not running this is a seat that could easily go republican. They currently have put up the only name recognition candidate thus far in congressman Mark Kennedy. The democrats are not currently offering any big names BUT in recent polls our no name nominee's have been competitive and even beating Kennedy in initial polling. Democratic attorney Amy Klobuchar was actually ahead of him despite the fact that he has a a huge money advantage. If former congressman Bill Luther runs (despite his past controversies) this is a seat that despite the odds we can hold. However, despite the polls I think Kennedy is a slight favorite as of now.
I have just went over all 33 senate seats in play in 06. I see a probable dem pickup of 1 or 2 and if all the cards fall right and we hold all of our contested and open seats then possibly 4. If Bush keeps sagging then at the absolute most 6...which would give us the senate
..........I find this highly highly unlikely though . If we do not play our cards right and they recruit well in some places we could actually see some losses 
. We are on shaky but advantageous ground as of right now.
I am not going over the house seats
. I have went through and looked at many of them and opportunities exist but I would be suprised if we picked up anymore then 5-7. The seats (gerymandering stinks!) do not exist. They have been drawn until they are no longer competitive. Just too polarized.
First I am noticing the 05 elections in New Jersey and Virginia in the gubernatorial contests.
In Virginia Democrat Lt. Gov Tim Kaine is polling about even (and dominating the debates) with Republican Att. Gen Jerry Kilgore in this very red state. Granted that Kaine is popular Gov. Warner's protege and that a republican independant (Pitts) is also in the election to take some support from Kilgore......but I think this race will shed some light into what may happen in the 06 elections. Right now Kaine is the slight underdog.
In New Jersey. Senator Corzine is running against Republican businessman Doug Forrester and this race is also polling neck and neck in some polls. However, I still think that Corzine is the clear favorite and that New Jersey races tend to seem closer then they are like in the 04 presidential election. Corzine was up 20 points just a month ago. I think he (Corzine) will win a 4-5 point victory.
These races I think are important coming into the 06 elections even though they are just governor posts.
The republicans are also having a hard time recruiting top tier candidates. Even in my state former Gov. Jim Edgar passed on the chance to oust Gov. Rod Blagoevich. Which although I am a democrat I find sad because Blago. is a bum and I would have voted for Edgar. That being said I will not vote for Gidwitz or Rauchenberger who are now two of the biggest republican names left.
After all that babbling
For national democrats the important races are of course in the senate.
Pickings are not as good as hoped but democrats have put up solid talent in the seats they have a chance at.
For Republicans.
Lugar is safe in Indiana
Snowe is safe in Maine
Lott is safe in Mississippi
Hutchinson is safe in Texas
Hatch or any republican who runs is safe in Utah
Allen is safe in Virginia......would think it would be funny if Ben Affleck ran though
Thomas is safe in Wyoming
Ensign is safe in Nevada as well as Jimmy Carter's son isnt going to beat him
Now the not safe but looking strong to remain republican seats.
Kyl in Arizona. He is facing a very wealthy democrat in Jim Pederson who can match him dollar for dollar and this is a race to keep an eye on but I find it unlikely that Arizona would send someone as liberal as Peterson to the senate.
In Tennessee with Frist stepping down Rep. Harold Ford jr will be running against former congressman Ed Bryant or Van Hilleary. Ford is a big name but is as of right now the underdog but this is a seat I think we have a chance at.
Now here are the target seats that the democrats need to attack hard.
Senator Talent in Missouri has been unremarkable and republican governor Blunt is not very popular at all. In addition the democrats have recruited a top tier candiate in St Auditor Claire McCaskill. early polls showed this race to be a tie as of now. This is the same Caire McCaskill who unseated democratic incumbant Bob Holden in the democratic primary. This seat is a must have.
Dewine's seat in Ohio is also a must. The democrats have recruited Army Veteran Paul Hackett and popular congressman Sherrod Brown. Early polls showed that both were polling higher then an unpopular Dewine who has been shunned by national republicans the NRA and is attached to an unpopular Republican party in Ohio which has the Governor with the lowest approval rating in the nation in Bob Taft at like 14%.
In Pennsylvania I think Santorum is done against St. Treasurer and democratic moderate Bob Casey Jr. Polls show as much. I am already counting this as a pickup.
In Rhode Island Lincoln Chafee is looking okay in current polls against democratic challengers but he is always one step away from the grave yard in this liberal state. Bush is massively unpopular and in order for Chafee to win he must distance himself heavily from Bush which will only anger national republicans in the process. He is in the middle of a rock and a hard place. He is also getting a primary challenge this time from a conservative republican as well in Stephen Laffey. This will hurt him as he will have to prove conservative enough for mainstream Rhode Island republicans BUT not go too far right to hurt himself in the general against either Democrat Sec of St Matt Brown or Ex- Att. General Sheldon Whitehouse. This is a possible pick-up. Heck even if Chafee wins the general (which he is a slight favorite to do) maybe he will make a party switch?
In Montana I think this race could turn into a shocker as this is one of the few states (other then Colorado and Illinois) that Democrats have done well in in the past few years. Conrad Burns is not overly popular (not as popular as Montana Dems. Schweitzer and Baucus) and he is facing one of two solid democratic candidates in either State Auditor John Morrison or State Senate president Jon Tester. Early polling shows low name recognition for both and an early and solid size lead for Burns but I know that will shrink as the race truly gets underway. This leans Burns but is should be a target and can be won.
The democrats need to defend their current senate seats as much as possible.
Lieberman is a lock in Conn.
Carper is a lock in Delaware
Akaka is a lock in Hawaii
Kennedy a lock in Mass.
Clinton a lock in New York
Bernie Sanders is a lock in Vermont. Not a democrat but he is on our side.
These are our locks.
The next series are seats that I fully expect to remain democrat.
Feinstein in California
Bingaman in New Mexico
Conrad in N. Dakota....given that Hoeven passed.
Byrd in West Virginia given that Capito passed
Kohl in Wisconsin ....but if Tommy Thompson runs we should worry
The next series are vulnerable but democrats still have the advantage as of now.
Nelson in Florida. Katherine Harris is looking like the republican nominee and that is good for Nelson. Congressman Mark Foley has shown interest in running though and this seat would become more competitive if that happened. Nelson would still be the slight favorite if he ran though and Harris is very divisive and even national republicans are refusing to truly endorse her.
In Michigan Senator Stabenow looked vulnerable but republicans have not found anyone to run against her and her numbers have rebounded and she has huge leads over potential republican opponents.
In Washington Cantwell is also potentially vulnerable but republicans have not recruited any big names to face her. Her likely opponent will either be businessman Mike McGavick or Diane Tebelius. I think polls give Cantwell a slight lead over the two but this will be close I think and one that we must keep.
In Nebraska Senator Nelson dodged a bullet when Tom Osborne decided to jump into the governor race and when popular Ex-Gov. Mike Johanns was named agriculture secretary by Bush. This state (as you know) is extremely red but Nelson is currently the favorite.
In New Jersey (with Corzine running for Gov) the democratic nominee with be one of these 4 congressman. Rob Andrews, Bob Menendez, Bill Pascrell or Frank Pallone. I suspect Andrews if he runs. He will in all probably face Tom Kean Jr who is the son of ex-Gov Tom Kean. This democratic leaning state will probably remain in our hands.
In Maryland the race will be close with Sarbanes retiring. Polls indicate the race will probably be between Democratic congressman Ben Cardin and Republican Lt Gov. Michael Steele. Steele is a black republican which is a hot commodity for them and they will pour millions into this race which Cardin has been leading in with small amounts. Steele may be too conservative for this seat in the end though. This is one we need to keep.
In Minnesota with Dayton not running this is a seat that could easily go republican. They currently have put up the only name recognition candidate thus far in congressman Mark Kennedy. The democrats are not currently offering any big names BUT in recent polls our no name nominee's have been competitive and even beating Kennedy in initial polling. Democratic attorney Amy Klobuchar was actually ahead of him despite the fact that he has a a huge money advantage. If former congressman Bill Luther runs (despite his past controversies) this is a seat that despite the odds we can hold. However, despite the polls I think Kennedy is a slight favorite as of now.
I have just went over all 33 senate seats in play in 06. I see a probable dem pickup of 1 or 2 and if all the cards fall right and we hold all of our contested and open seats then possibly 4. If Bush keeps sagging then at the absolute most 6...which would give us the senate
..........I find this highly highly unlikely though . If we do not play our cards right and they recruit well in some places we could actually see some losses . We are on shaky but advantageous ground as of right now.I am not going over the house seats
. I have went through and looked at many of them and opportunities exist but I would be suprised if we picked up anymore then 5-7. The seats (gerymandering stinks!) do not exist. They have been drawn until they are no longer competitive. Just too polarized.
Kalabus, thanks for the thoughtful and informative post.
What issue(s) will deliver the 2006 elections to the democrats?
I believe it will be the issues that affect the pocketbooks of Americans the most, not necessarily the scandals and the fact that Republicans often like to characterize their political party as the "moral" one.
Which issues above are the most damaging? Which would be the most likely to be deflected?
If the Plame investigation provides the proof that skeptical voters of Republican persuasion are looking for, that it was indeed a felony on the part of whoever exposed Valerie Plame as a CIA analyst, this will have some fallout, but how it would translate to lost Republican seats in Congress, I am not sure.
Delay looks guilty, but he is entitled to his day in court. Frist likewise. Dobson? Big hairy deal--Bush is going to have to call in some favors from his erstwhile Republican buddies to get Harriet Miers approved, that is, if there are enough favors to call in. There are Republicans who are unhappy about being defined by the attitudes and actions of the Religious Right, and they might be in a mood to disregard this influence for a change. After all, Bush was pretty brazen about nominating Miers, especially after nominating such an eminently qualifed jurist just before her, and there is no shortage of well-qualified candidates who could have been nominated instead of her.
Will the media do a decent job on these issues and sticking them to the responsible people in them?
I don't know how much more the media can do to publicize these problems the Republicans are having. The fact is, those who don't care and vote Republican anyway aren't going to be affected by the media stories. They are convinced that the media is liberal and therefore whatever news, true or not, that is presented to the American public is tainted. Or, there's always the complaint "They're just going negative," which sidesteps any legitimate issues connected to Republican malfeasance. There are a lot of diehard Republicans, and a lot of them have money and powerful positions, and face it: anything can happen between now and the elections.
I don't think anything can be taken for granted as Democrats seek balance if not control of Congress in the next election, especially as long as Diebold is the producer of the voting equipment.
What issue(s) will deliver the 2006 elections to the democrats?
I believe it will be the issues that affect the pocketbooks of Americans the most, not necessarily the scandals and the fact that Republicans often like to characterize their political party as the "moral" one.
Which issues above are the most damaging? Which would be the most likely to be deflected?
If the Plame investigation provides the proof that skeptical voters of Republican persuasion are looking for, that it was indeed a felony on the part of whoever exposed Valerie Plame as a CIA analyst, this will have some fallout, but how it would translate to lost Republican seats in Congress, I am not sure.
Delay looks guilty, but he is entitled to his day in court. Frist likewise. Dobson? Big hairy deal--Bush is going to have to call in some favors from his erstwhile Republican buddies to get Harriet Miers approved, that is, if there are enough favors to call in. There are Republicans who are unhappy about being defined by the attitudes and actions of the Religious Right, and they might be in a mood to disregard this influence for a change. After all, Bush was pretty brazen about nominating Miers, especially after nominating such an eminently qualifed jurist just before her, and there is no shortage of well-qualified candidates who could have been nominated instead of her.
Will the media do a decent job on these issues and sticking them to the responsible people in them?
I don't know how much more the media can do to publicize these problems the Republicans are having. The fact is, those who don't care and vote Republican anyway aren't going to be affected by the media stories. They are convinced that the media is liberal and therefore whatever news, true or not, that is presented to the American public is tainted. Or, there's always the complaint "They're just going negative," which sidesteps any legitimate issues connected to Republican malfeasance. There are a lot of diehard Republicans, and a lot of them have money and powerful positions, and face it: anything can happen between now and the elections.
I don't think anything can be taken for granted as Democrats seek balance if not control of Congress in the next election, especially as long as Diebold is the producer of the voting equipment.
I see a heck of a "perfect storm" brewing for us right now. Take a look at the developments of the individual scandals that I pointed out earlier in the thread starting post.
-We will have indictments coming soon(not to mention resignations afterwards) of members of this administration.
-Bill Frist got nailed when it was discovered that rather than not have a clue about his investments, he was notified fifteen times as to how they were doing and what was going on. It looks as if his goose is cooked.
-Tom DeLay is now marginalized
James Dobson will likely be summoned regarding private information that was given to him to basically guarantee him that Harriet Miers would support christian views no matter what.
Sometimes events can be played off as partisan attacks(i.e.-Clinton's impeachment being viewed as a way to undo the '96 election) but these events are really sticking.
-We will have indictments coming soon(not to mention resignations afterwards) of members of this administration.
-Bill Frist got nailed when it was discovered that rather than not have a clue about his investments, he was notified fifteen times as to how they were doing and what was going on. It looks as if his goose is cooked.
-Tom DeLay is now marginalized
James Dobson will likely be summoned regarding private information that was given to him to basically guarantee him that Harriet Miers would support christian views no matter what.
Sometimes events can be played off as partisan attacks(i.e.-Clinton's impeachment being viewed as a way to undo the '96 election) but these events are really sticking.
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