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bucket
I have engaged in several debates on the subject of Iran here at ad.gif and there is a fairly prevalent held position that Iran is strong and will only grow stronger with their much coveted oil reserves.

As most of us are aware Iran elected a new president just a few months ago. His name is Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad and his main rhetorical promise to voters in Iran was gov. reform. Mostly based on a socialist/populist/theocratic/despotic form of government.

His speech at the Un last month was a disgrace to the purpose and objective of the UN. And his sponsored conference in Tehran entitled “A World without Zionism”, where he said Israel should be “wiped off the map” while he gave warnings to Arab nations about making economic ties with the enemy..just further illuminates this man's mentality.

The US perspective seems to be one of routine..they say these statements are not seen as any form of policy change from Iran.


Yet what is most interesting is the Iranian president's actions and policies effects within his own nation. Iran seems to be in a bit of trouble. How can this be with all the gobs of money rolling in from oil sales?

Just some basic highlights:
Complaints about rising chicken prices during the holy month of Ramadan mark the first widespread disquiet about president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad

High oil prices are a double-edged sword for Mr Ahmadi-Nejad, swelling government coffers, but increasing public expectations. "Oil is over $50 a barrel ... so where's the money going?" asks a 40-year-old manual worker in Tehran.


The Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has dropped 20 per cent since the election, with the Tehran price index (Tepix) closing on Monday at 10,014, perilously close to the psychological 10,000 mark level.

Iran's media have been rife with reports of capital flight, especially to the UAE, where thousands of Iranian companies have subsidiaries.


The above is the most telling...it seems like they are in a bit of a panic. Why? Many analysts claim that the pressure on Iran right now is a direct result of the nuclear dispute with the US and the EU.


Here is the article I snipped all those from...
Beginning of the end for Iranian president's honeymoon period


Questions...

Do you believe Iran will experience a economic meltdown? Or is the private sectors reactions too small to make much of a ripple because government owned oil is so strong?

Is it possible that Iran's wealth from oil will work against her as the article claims?

And do you believe the world will remain united under pressurizing Iran to comply and do you feel this is why Iran is suffering now?




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moif
I was considering a similar thread myself after Ahmadinejad's out burst but I see you have looked deeper into this than I have bucket.

I personally do not consider Iran to be all that strong and Ahmadinejad's comments only strengthen my opinion since I see a sign of weakness in his having to heap more fuel on the burning hatred for Israel in order to deflect the failures of government this fellow most probably presides over.


QUOTE(bucket)
Do you believe Iran will experience a economic meltdown? Or is the private sectors reactions too small to make much of a ripple because government owned oil is so strong?
I believe its possible, but I don't believe it will matter much. Islam appears to be able to persuade people to put aside rational conduct and face utter ruin in the pursuit of its goals.

Quite how the destruction of Israel has become an Islamic goal is beyond me. All I see here is a religion usurped on a grand scale for largely political, or even personal reasons.
Even if the Iranian private sector goes into a tail spin I don'y hold out much hope that this will cause the people of Iran to do anything but blame Israel.


QUOTE(bucket)
Is it possible that Iran's wealth from oil will work against her as the article claims?
I don't know.


QUOTE(bucket)
And do you believe the world will remain united under pressurizing Iran to comply and do you feel this is why Iran is suffering now?
I certainly hope so. In fact, for once I'll even go so far as to back Ariel Sharon's call for Iran to be kicked out of the UN. I hope the worlds nations put so much pressure on Iran that they are forced to suffer the consequence of their decisions.

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