Inspired by Nebraska29's blog I thought it might be fun for us to post some predictions for 2006. At the end of the year, or end of the decade, we can look back and see how accurate we were.

Feel free to make any sort of prediction you want - from political to natural to pop cultural - whatever.

I'm terrible at these things, but I'll give it a go.

I predict...

1) like Nebraska, I think the Democrats will take back the House. But I don't think it will be by a very large margin. They will still have no strategy for addressing southern constituents.

2) Sonny Purdue will again win as governor of Georgia.

3) Wertz will move to Savannah (finally!).

4) Radio will officially go on air..or online if you want to get technical.

5) the 2006 hurricane season will be equally as strong and long as 2005.

Ok, that's all I have for now. Maybe more later. Let's hear yours!!

Happy New Year!!!!

I realllly don't like your #5 prediction Jaime

1) At least 3 Desperate Housewives knock-offs will hit the airwaves, only one will survive its first 13 episodes.

2) Another rapper will be killed.

3) Howard Dean will accuse Dick Cheney of simultaneously channelling Rasputin and Cardinal Richelieu.

4) Ferrari will lose the Formula One championship.

5) Another SCOTUS Justice will pass away, laying the groundwork for a real donnybrook confirmation.

6) Not even the Spielberg name will save Munich from box office failure.

7) Millions of puppies and kittens will find loving homes.

8) China will begin the process of de-linking its currency from the dollar.

1. Like Jaime I think the southeast is in for some very bad stormtimes. The return to the storm cycle is going to cause a lot of unrest in the coastal states.

2. Even after New Orleans the Fed STILL won't have their act together. The blowback from this will cause serious problems for the administration from their own supporters.

3. The Democrats STILL will fail to regain any control as they once again rely on BUSH IS BAD--even though he aint running.

4. Democrats will once again STILL fail to recognize their own weaknesses and blame Americans for being stupid.

5. Another opening on the Supreme Court will hand control fully to the GOP. Future future prediction for 2008--that will give control back to the Dems as the GOP does as it always does and over reaches.

6. Abortion as a vote getting cashcow for both parties will be removed from the field.
Some very sensible ideas will finally try to address the problem instead of allowing it to continue for each parties political gain.

7. Cheney -- massive heart attack, resigns VP.

8. Both Guliani and McCain will start to place themselves for 2008. future future either one can own the 2008 election and gain the support of both parties moderates and push enfuriated fringes out.

9. In an act of mercy the Reality TV shows will finally die as they deserve to.

10.Mike and Jaime will get their own political debate show on cable TV.

1. It will become obvious even to dyed in the wool Bush supporters that the invasion of Iraq has ended in failure.

2. Global warming evidence will continue to mount in scientific studies and will become increasingly evident in human experience.

3. The hurricane season will produce almost as many tropical storms as this year and as many category 5 hurricanes but, hopefully, not 3 that reach the intensity and size of Katrina, Rita, and Wilma before hitting the US.

4. There will be some major politically caused disruption in world oil markets but the consequences of Peak Oil will not be evident until a few years later.

5. The US economy will take a major hit as it becomes clear that the government can't endlessly stimulate it with buget and trade deficits. The housing market will be hit first as interest rates rise.

6. There will be at least one more indictment in the Plame leak case.

7. The Abramhoff scandal will take down Representatives and Senators in both parties but chiefly Republicans.

8. The FBI Franklin/APAC/Israel spying investigation will be linked to the Plame cases.

9. A bill of particulars to impeach the President and Vice President will be introduced in the House of Representatives but there will be no impeachment due to residual Republican loyalists coupled with a large number of weak kneed Democrats.

Gee, sounds like an interesting year!

American's aren't stupid?

1. Democrats will tie in the senate and get much closer in the house.
2. Rummy will quit and Bush will replace him with someone just as incompetant
3. A bunch of celebrities will do things, I won't care
4. Bad stuff will happen
5. The Colts will win the Superbowl

1) That I will eat 200 Skor bars.

2) That George Bush's poll numbers will go above 50% at some point. Not because he would have doen anything good but because people are so used to him failing that if he goes a month without doing anything massively wrong that get's alot of media coverage...his numbers will climb because people will assume he is doing well...meaning alot of American's need to be told how to thought.

3) Bush's numbers will again shoot down to the low 40's, high 30's....because he cannot help but mess up.

4) The US in Iraq will continue to turn over authority until our presense and soldier's deaths decrease and the Bush admin will claim it as a victory and the US media (terrified of being called liberal biased ) will give this view more validity then it deserves. Furthermore, to show just how superficial American views are the current poll numbers that show most Americans believe the war was unecessary which they base in tandem with the also believed idea that Bush was dishonst in preperation for the Iraq war will be replaced by views (from the same people) who eventually will state as their opinion that the war was valid and waged properly and honestly. This will be significant to common sense people because nothing that truly speaks in regards to those things will have improved or changed. Believing the war didn't need to be fought and believing that Bush was dishonest in it's buildup should have nothing to do with the final outcome of Iraq. The two are not related and neither prove or disprove or should influence the other. If Iraq tunrs out to be the most prosperous and democratic nation on earth the belief that the war wasn't necessary for our safety and that Bush was dishonest should not change. That just wouldn't be American though. We have to lump the unrelated for the sake of convenience.

It would be like me right now thinking baseball has a massive steroid problem and that owners are racist, yet 2006 turns out to be an exciting baseball year and they lower ticket sales.....yet for some reason I start to state that baseball doesn't have a steroid problem and that owners are not racist. Really doesnt make sense does it?

Continuing in all of this common sense breakdown almost everyone will forget that Iraq (though free of Saddam and democratic) will be nothing more then Middle Easter post soviet-esque Tajikistan, teetering on revolution and Shi'a fundamentalism....as we (US) continue to claim victory. Similiar to how people hail the fall of the Berlin wall and then forget to note just how little progress alot those former Soviet States have actually made.

5) The democrats do not regain the house. I think Jimmy Carter has a better chance of serving his second term as president then we do of regaining the house. The seats simply do not exist to be taken. Gerrymandering, lack of voting interest and the common fact that while not satisfied with government alot of people do like their congressman will create a very typical house election on 06. Anything more then 5-7 seats changing hands is something I find unrealistic. Plus in the 2010 seat realignment red states are going to pick up alot more seats and the blue states are going to lose alot of seats.

6) The Democrats do not regain the senate. This is something that I spend a great deal of time researching. The democrats only have a realistic chance of taking back 6 senate seats. Here they are in order of probability..Pennsylvania (Santorum), Ohio (Dewine), Missouri (Talent), Montana (Burns), Rhode Island (Chafee) and Tennessee (Frist's vacant seat). They would have to win all of those in order to take back the senate while defending these potential close races and losses... Minnesota (Daytons open seat), Nebraska (Nelson), Florida (Nelson), Cantwell (Washington), Stabenow (Michigan), Maryland (Sarbanes vacant seat) and even potentially Wisconsin (Kohl's seat) and New Jersey (Corzine's vacant seat). While also hoping that Byrd in West Virginia doesnt lose to father time and the grim reaper. The other 18 senate seats up for play in 06 are by most realistic counts locked up for one party or the other. The 15 I mentioned are the only ones to even pay attention to barring someone stepping down.

The rumor mill is saying that Lott and Stevens may retire soon but Mississippi and Alaska are republican locks anyway

The democrats have alot more competitive seats and seats in general to defend then the republicans do...although the republican's have the seats that have the best chance pf changing hands. In all of those mentioned democratic seats possibly in play a democrat is currently leading in the polls. Even in Minnesota.

In the 6 senate republican senate seats I mentioned Santorum and Dewine trail democratic challengers. Talent was in a tie in the last poll I saw. In a recent Montana poll...Burns led by 6 over State Auditor John Morrison(D). Burns is getting hurt a little because of Abrimoff links. For relevance I will note that Burns was polling about 23% higher then democrat and current governor Brian Schweitzer at this point in 1999...and only won by 4% in the 2000 election. In comparison Morrison is in fine shape. In Rhode Island Chafee has held a solid (often double digit lead) over democratic challengers but being in Rhode Island is never safe for a republican.

I predict a Democrat gain of 3 seats in the senate.

7) Illinois republican governor nominee Judy Baar Topinka will beat Rod Blagoevich in the 06 election....and also be outed as a closet homosexual by political operatives.

8) Israel and Iran have an armed interaction.

9) John Roberts turns out to be closer to Kennedy and Souter then Rehnquist.

10) 50 Cent gets shot.

11) The Colts win the super bowl over the Giants.

12) Bill O' Reilly is outed again for sexually harassing someone.....he will subsequently blame the New York Times, world secularists and Al Franken for all of it.

13) Uzbekistan and the name Islom Karimov starts to get some attention in the US media.

14) Alot of baseball's Negro League greats will get inducted into the MLB HOF. I guess 8 will.

15) I finally stop dodging the bullet and get activated to go to Iraq on a 9 month to a year deployment.

1.The government will continue to focus on the important issues of our time, namely, steroids.

2. The Democrats will pick up two-four Senate seats, maybe a few House seats.

3. The Denver Broncos will beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XL.

4. The New York Times will print a horribly factually inaccurate story and won't appologize for it.

5. The New York Post will print a horribly factually inaccurate story and will eventually appologize about it, but who cares, it's the New York Post.

6. The Boston Red Sox will win their division and most likely the World Series.

7. The New York Jets will not draft Reggie Bush.

8. Bill O'Reilly's show will continue to suck.

9. More disaffected voters will stay at home on Election day.

10. Republicans will start attacking Rudy Giuliani.

11. Senator Ted Kennedy may enjoy a cocktail or two.

12. Zell Miller will have an aneuryism and die on Hardball.

13. I will move to Boston.

14. A Libertarian will not be elected as Senator, Representative, President or Vice President.

CP

I think O'Reilly may be the biggest distorter and personal hyporcite on television right now but I generally like his show...but wish that variety of filter news through personal bias political commentator show would vanish.

Ted Kennedy is laying in a pool of vomit as we speak...meanwhile his wife is vomiting in the pool.

Representative Ron Paul from Texas is a bit of a libertarian. Ran as libertarian presidential nominee in 88 I think? Has lost alot of his nerve in recent years I think though.

I still would love a Ron Paul/Bernie Sanders ticket......that would be interesting.

I am really surprised that nobody has mentioned "The Streak"?

In 2006, I predict that "the streak" continues, and that, in the History of North American Hockey, still no team from Mexico City will claim the Stanley Cup!

AND:

Catherine Zeta Jones will be discovered in a lurid Love Affair with a CIA operative who's cover name is "Redliner1989".

Of course, these are just guesses.

1. Bush's poll numbers will level off early in the year, but...

2. Tom DeLay will add another "smiling" mug shot (this time federal) to his collection as a result of Jack Abramoff's cooperation with prosecutors.

3. DeLay will not seek reelection from his Sugar Land, Texas district.

4. Karl Rove will join "Scooter" Libby on the indictment list--another head in Patrick Fitzgerald's trophy case.

5. Bush's poll numbers will plummet again, as questions about his honesty continue to surface.

6. 2006 will be worse for Republicans than 2005.

There are some truly interesting things on some of the previous posts... wow. That's all I can say.

Now... *drum roll*... here are some more realistic predictions...

1. The housing market will bottom sooner as opposed to later. Housing's price to earning ratio cannot possibly sustain such growth on artificial terms. In other words, in many cases, housing markets are far overvalued.

2. Our economy will grow marginally, but the news agencies will call it a recession or some other hogwash. (reference--> our current economy! )

3. Iraq will still cost to gosh-darn much and the White House won't have a clear plan this time next year...

4. New Orleans will still remain in shambles, in that the gov't of Louisiana and Washington will continue to pander to the masses and not effectively drive change.

5. Sadly, the Saints will move to San Antonio. Maybe they won't be so awful then....

6. Nightly News will still be full of garbage science, rhetoric, and negativity.

7. The Seahawks pull out a squeaker in the Super Bowl.

8. Starbucks will continue to emerge as one of the fastest growing organizations in the United States, and put even more stores in smaller markets.

9. Text messaging and wireless data applications will continue to grow as a HUGE revenue stream for national carriers, even if it does aggravate the crud out of me.

10. Americans will continue to find their economic and political opinions from the Nightly News, regardless of whether what's aired is actually factual or not. Afterall, finding the truth or your own opinion would require an education, which if cannot be found via a quick Google search is too much work!!

A few predictions from me:

1. "Snoopgate" will fizzle in January. The Democrats will realize that the American people want to be safe and respect a President who uses reasonable means to assure that safety.

2. The Seahawks will defeat the Colts in the Super Bowl.

3. LeBron James will finally play in a playoff game. The Cavs will fall in the second round.

4. The storm season will not be as bad as last year.

5. Housing prices will be unstable, with some boom markets and some bust markets. Overall, this will cause a lot of financial problems for people who have overstretched on home equity loans.

6. Congress will authorize a wall to be built with Mexico.

7. Troop levels in Iraq will continue to drop, dipping under 90,000 by the end of the year.

8. The Republicans will lose a few seats (around 10) in the House, but retain control. They will lose a net of 1 or 2 in the Senate, but will retain control.

9. Iraq will become increasingly stable because the Iraqis feel they have a stake in their future.

10. Bush announces that he will not seek the Presidential nomination in '08.

1. Democrats will come close to taking the House but will fall short.

2. Democrats will take the senate.

3. Republicans will run from Bush during the 2006 elections.

3. Arnold Schwartzenegger will be booted out of office to be replaced by some other actor or non-political figure who is a Democrat.

4. Oil will reach and stay above $80/barrel by the end of 2006.

5. Another member of the White House Iraq group will be indicted on more serious charges when Libby flips on his superiors to avoid jail time.

6. Abramhoff will take down several senators and representatives due to his illegal and unethical lobbying activities.

Maybe a few more later, have to run

This is great....can we vote on this?

I found ConservPat's predictions to be excellent, but find Ball 'o Fire's predictions to be the most accurate.

I only have a few predictions:

1. Bush will be president every day of 2006.
2. Karl Rove will kreate khaos attempting to klear his name without killing his kareer. He'll lose and have to resign.
3. Sean Hannity will continue to parrot the party line no matter how many laws were broken by republicans.
4. I'm going out on a limb here, but Wertz and I could possibly disagree on one or more issues this year.
5. My addiction to AD will not be helped by the volatile issues certain to be plentiful next year.

There will be a terrorist attack in mainland Europe

Sony will kill the MS360

Iran will test a nuclear weapon

WI-FI will be everywhere........

I could care less what the Dems and Reps do in the house and/or the senate and most of America will agree with me

Better go buy your digital TV

I will go to Japan! If I keep making this one maybe it will come true

Kofi Annan will finally go away and will be replaced with a champion of the third world

Economy in US will continue steady

Someone will dump the Euro...either Germany or Italy

Nothing will change in 2006. It will be exactly the same as every other year.

Politicians will lie without fear of consequence though a few might shuffle back and forth, or maybe die.

War will still be in fashion.

Arms manufacture and dealing will remain the most lucrative method of making a profit.

The poor will get poorer whilst the rich get richer.

Rape, murder and other criminal activities will continue, and even increase in frequency.

Islam will continue its determined spread into Europe and violent oppression will follow it.

The arts will continue to deteriate in quality as capitalism continues its global crusade to replace quality with quantity.

Greed will be the main motivation of human endeavour.

I will finally finish my thesis

The Dutch soccer team WILL win the World Cup!!

The Dutch will not send 1100 special forces to Afghanistan.

More dirty secrets around this administrations disregard for human rights will surface in the media.

Mud-slinging will continue to dominate U.S. politics. (they should give these people a price for being so creative in twisting reality.)

I suspect one of Bush closest advisors will get sacked. (or maybe I am just hoping this will happen )

I hope I can convince some conservative Republicans that socialism also has its beneficial sides for society. (Better Red, than poor)

I finally learn how to use the Spellcheck

1) Unfortunately more ethnic division/infighting/mistrust will cripple the struggling Iraqi government. This time next year they’ll be no closer to effective self rule than they are today.

2) Major oil companies continue to make record profits regardless of the strain they’re putting on the middle class. Bush gives them another tax break.

3) Gas prices hit an all time high.

4) Bush makes up 8 new words and takes credit for 5 more that already existed.

5) Interest rates climb and new home starts will fall dramatically.

6) The consumer confidence index hits a near record low in April.

7) AD will issue more strikes in October (leading up to the elections) than any month in history (sorry Jaime, Mike and the admins).

8) One major domestic airline will go bust. Richard Branson’s new U.S. Virgin will show the rest how it’s done.

9) Executives will continue to pay themselves way too much for sending jobs overseas.

10) Companies that provide domestic support for their products will start advertising the fact.

11) The Walton family will continue to make gazillions while their average workers struggle to pay bills. Target gains momentum and a chunk of Walmart’s market share.

12) Tom Delay gets a slap on the wrist, a small fine and that poo eating grin gets smellier. Others around him go down in flames.

13) Fife and Drum will finish his Third Party Manifesto and share it at the 1st annual AD convention. After an almost complete rewrite, the second revolution will start as concerned patriots begin to take their country back.

14) Cube Jockey will come clean that he’s really a bunch of people and the rest of us finally figure out how one person covers that much ground.

15) Paris Hilton will get mauled by a pack of cocaine induced Hollywood lap dogs (actually just a couple of scratches but her people will stand by their mauled statement). The country will “party likes it’s 1999” after her people issue a statement that she’s going into hiding for a year while she recuperates.

16) Nicole Ritchie gets busted selling cocaine to a pack of Hollywood lap dogs. The country parties “all night long”.

17) The music scene will continue to be dreadful.

18) The United States will do surprising well in the World Cup despite their horrible grouping. Brazil will win despite favorable referring from host team Germany.

19) The Seahawks barely beat the Colts in an exciting Super Bowl.

20) UConn wins the NCAA men’s basketball championship.

21) Stevie Wonderboy will win the Kentucky Derby, breaking the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner jinx and being the first betting favorite to win in ages. Looking for a value bet I don’t have the winning ticket.

22) Lance Armstrong comes out of retirement, wins another Tour de France and puts the silly notion aside that he uses steroids. Baseball commissioner Bud Selig calls him immediately and asks if he’s ever had his fast ball clocked. Cheryl Crow gets offended.

1) Abe Vigoda will continue to walk the earth. Yes, he's still alive.

2) AD Radio will launch... going out on a limb here.

3) People will continue to believe whatever is politically palatable to them, in spite of law, reason and intellect.

4) The law continues to be "out of touch" with most people because they are too lazy/ill-educated to understand it properly...

5) ... that won't stop people from having wildly uninformed opinions about it.

6) The United States will continue to depend on China for money, Canada for resources, and Europe for legitimacy while simultaneously treating all three like punching-bags.

7) Only China will have the temerity to set its own course.

8) Mr. Eko is going to kill someone.

9) Elizabeth Taylor is going to kick the bucket.

10) So will Boston's playoff chances.

1) Oil stays relatively flat, peaking in the summer at $67 a barrel.

2) Housing starts slow down but market increases in home prices continue upward nationwide. Continuing speculation of housing bubble goes through entire year.

3) Dow Jones loses 4% on the year. Holding off recession from twin deficits one more year.

4) Abramhoff takes down no one in Congress. Scandal dies due to generally apathetic public. Token punishments abound. John McCain tries to pass legislation to clean up lobby industry and fails.

5) Patriots win Super Bowl again, angering nation.

6) Yankees win World Series, angering nation.

7) House Republicans lose only 2 seats despite bad press.

8) Senate Republicans lose 1 seat.

9) My wife will have twins. One boy and one girl. I will pass out in the delivery room.

Neither the Lions nor the Tigers were ever in contention, so I see no reason for anyone from Michigan to be angry...but then I have never been a sports fanatic. It makes no sense to me that anyone should be upset except the fans of the second place teams. (But then, when a Detroit team has won a major championship, angry fans have been known to turn over police cars and try to set the town on fire. Perhaps "logical sports fan" is an oxymoron.)

Personal prediction for 2006:

I have been rereading the U.S. Constitution because my opinion is that the current President of the United States, sworn to protect and defend it, is not familiar with it. His actions over the next few days seem far more likely to anger the nation than the outcome of a ball game.

I have been routinely visiting the USA PATRIOT act link at WhiteHouse.gov. The "current updates" remain the same.


Our vacationing President left for Camp David, and then his ranch, before Congress passed the extension of the USA PATRIOT act. It seems that in the original writing of the Constitution, Congress was only required to meet on "the first Monday in December, unless they shall by Law appoint a different Day." I could not find how many days vacation the President is allowed to take each year, but the writers of the Constitution likely did not view the job of President as a job that needed to be covered by a union-management agreement. At any rate, I have not seen the President in a photo-op signing the USA PATRIOT act extension into law, and I have seen no update on the White House web site to indicate that he is on enough of a "working vacation" to reach into his pocket, take out a pen, and sign it into law. As the Congress will have been adjourned for a period of ten days (not including Sundays) by the time he returns to work, it will not become law. I expect that when he returns from vacation, he will continue to act as if the USA PATRIOT act is still in effect and continue to authorize actions which should be authorized by courts. His actions, and inactions, will anger first the Congress and then the nation. Members of the House, all facing re-election, will vote to impeach an unpopular President before Election Day, in hopes of being re-elected.

Corollary: The French press will hate him even more and trump up more bogus charges. Jan Ullrich won't even finish in the top 5 with Lance in the tour.

My predictions for 2006.

1. North Korea will feel slighted by all the world attention paid to Iran and will conduct some outrageous act in order to gain the spotlight.

2. We'll see a significant movement of American companies manufacturing in China start to pull that capability back into North America (mainly Mexico). This will occur primarily in the high-tech sector.

3. The democrats will continue to bash President Bush on a daily basis. But this will not result in them gaining ground in the Senate or the House. The main reason will be the public's lack of trust of the democrats on the national security issue.

4. Bush will see his approval ratings top 50% by mid-year.

5. The Detroit Lions will waste their top draft picks on underachieving players, hire a brain dead coach, and will continue to keep Matt Millen, that utter buffoon, in his general manager position.

6. There will be fewer major Hurricanes than in 2005.

7. Hollywood will make an "old fashioned" movie touting "traditional values" which will make a lot of money. This will result in a stampede by the followers in that town to make more of this sort of film.

8. The US will start pulling troops out of Iraq in substantial numbers by July. By year end, the number of troops will be less than 50,000 in that country.

9. The economy will continue to grow at a rate of approximately 4%. Inflation will be low, and the stock market will be up 7-8% by year end.

10. We will learn that Bin Laden is dead and that he's been dead for over 1 year.

11. The Detroit Red Wings and Detroit Pistons will be champions in 2006. The Detroit Tigers will be over .500 for the first time in ages. The Superbowl, to be held in Detroit, will feature the New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Bucs. New England will win.

12. Sam Alito will be confirmed to the USSC. This will occur in spite of democrat attempts to "Bork" him, filibuster threats, etc. This attempt will push the democrats even further to the left and be another factor why they don't regain any seats in 2006.

13. Subscribers to the NY Times and other print newspapers will continue to diminish. Fox News will win the ratings battles on cable TV.

14. Howard Stern's move to Sirius radio will be considered a flop by the end of 2006. Commentators will theorize that Stern was funny when he was seen as naughty by moving to the envelope of the radio rules yet not breaking them. His uncensored show will be seen as boring and unfunny, and will represent a huge finanacial loss to Sirius radio.

15. Lordhelmet will be only a rare visitor to A-D. He will post fewer times than in 2005 or 2004. He will spend the time that he previously spent on A-D working out and manage to lose 25 lbs by year end and be in the best shape of his adult life.

1. The Democratic Party will not take back the House, but the Republicans will hold an even slimmer majority. The Senate will retain its current "balance". Democrats will fare better in state legislatures and, possibly, governorships - though Arnold Schwarzenegger will make a bit of a comeback and win reelection.

2. 2006 will mark the advent of widespread podcasting. With more open-source technology becoming available, videocasts will begin supplanting a lot of blogging and become the new trend by the end of the year. As a result, Macromedia's Flash will pull ahead of QuickTime, Real, and WinMedia to become the dominant video playback standard.

3. It will be a good year for the advertizing industry and a bad year - a very bad year - for the American automotive industry.

4. In gaming, both the X-Box 360 and PS3 will prove to be duds compared to the new Nintendo system - though marketing will win out over quality and the 360 will be the top seller - and PSP will go the way of Betamax.

5. The White House will declare some sort of arbitrary "victory" in Iraq and begin a large-scale withdrawal of troops. Iraq will descend into civil war - as was inevitable from the outset. Within two years, Iraq will be a full-fledged theocracy, similar (very similar) to Iran. Due to the bloody mess that the current administration has already made of the country, the US will not intervene and the Kurds in particular will fare very badly.

6. The Vatican will officially dispense with the traditional dogma of Limbo in an encyclical issued by Benedict XVI.

7. Brokeback Mountain will receive at least seven Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay Adaptation. Walk the Line and Good Night and Good Luck will be among other Best Picture contenders and Cinderella Man, Memoirs of a Geisha, King Kong and The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe will each receive a number of nominations, primarily in technical and design fields.

8. As 2008 nears, people will begin rethinking both Rudy Giuliani and Hilllary Clinton as viable presidential candidates (because they're not) - and start looking elsewhere.

9. Record labels will begin offering first-release music in MP3 format.

10. There will be a renewed interest in physical fitness in the US. The resulting decline in the sale of traditional fast foods will prompt more franchises to offer "healthy options".

11. TiVo will become increasingly popular and its next release will allow for even more interactivity - possibly with an internet component.

12. The Abramoff scandal will implicate a number of representatives and senators, but (as with most high crimes of the past five years or so) there will be no serious charges brought against anyone - at least, not until well after the 2006 election.


EDITED TO ADD:

And Wertz may finally move to Savannah...

Subbing for nighttimer is Karnak the Magnificent!

I predict:

1. In their continuing slow shuffle into irrelevance the Democrats will fail to take back the House or the Senate, but motivated by weariness with Republican scandal, sleaze and ineffectiveness, voters will narrow the GOP's majorities in both houses of Congress.

2. The war will drag on despite the cosmetic drawdown of troops prior to the 2006 elections. Bush's popularity will peak at 55 percent and slide again as restlessness continues to grow with the lack of an exit strategy or clearly articulated goals for success in Iraq.

3. There will be a spectacular terrorist attack, but probably not in the United States.

4. Bush will have another vacancy on the Supreme Court to fill and solidify the rightward direction of the Court. The next appointee will be a woman or a Hispanic.

5. Jack Abramoff will agree to a deal with the feds and make life very difficult for the Republican Party. Patrick Fitzgerald will indict Karl Rove. Rove will resign and Bush will pardon him causing an outcry in Washington.

6. Pink Floyd and Genesis will reunite. The Backstreet Boys will split up again but nobody will notice.

5. Dave Chapelle will return for a third season.

6. Daniel Craig will bomb as the new James Bond.

7. Brad and Angelina will break up. Jennifer and Vince Vaughn will not.

8. The Seattle Seahawks will lose to the Denver Broncos in a boring Super Bowl 40 and everyone will wonder how the Rolling Stones got so goshdarned old.

9. Brokeback Mountain and Capote will win big at the Academy Awards as the media elite breathlessly babble about the brave new world of "queer cinema." The rest of America will barely be able to suppress a yawn.

10. Paris Hilton will continue to demonstrate that having no discernable talent is not a vice in pop culture.

11. Superman will suck.

12. Evil Dick Cheney will continue to run the country from his bunker. Just as he has for the last five years.

13. Everyone will forget about New Orleans until something forces the nation to remember.

14. Nighttimer will leave Ohio. Finally.

Ooh! Let's all make sure we look back at this thread in the archives and see who, if anyone, got their predictions right. (So far, only moif's have been completely plausible, largely on the basis that he shied away from making any of them specific )

But anyway, here's my wetted-finger-in-the-air predictions:

1. Russia's presidency of the G8 will be marred by a major terrorist incident, probably Chechen, aimed at it on Russian soil, and the wild over-reaction of the Putin government and Russian military.
2. Germany's economy will begin to grow again, fuelled by a recovery in domestic consumer demand. This will in turn revitalise the wider EU economy, and help China to overtake Britain and France to become the world's 4th largest economy.
3. The EU budget will collapse as massive and systematic CAP fraud is revealed in France, Italy, Spain and Greece. Germany, the main funder of the EU, will threaten to pull the rug away unless the CAP is immediately scrapped. The EU will survive, but along the lines pursued by the Blair government as primarily a trading block with some pooled soveriegnty in specific areas. A new draft constitution along these lines will emerge, and will gain widespread public support.
4. France will plunge into civil unrest, this time caused by angry native farmers. They will attempt to replace CAP subsidies with ones funded from domestic taxation, which will rise so much that it precipitates a decade-long economic stagnation. There will be a national, painful self-examination, once the Republican ideal has proven to be built on racist and reactionary sand - the idea that all things French are inherently inferior, coupled with wilful institutional blindness of the problems faced by ethnic minorities -
5. Native Europeans' growing dissatisfaction with immigration policies and incipient racism, especially against Muslims, will continue to grow, despite much tighter immigration policies as European political leaders try to out-macho one another. This will reach fever pitch as another major European city is attacked by terrorists. In a mirror image of the Madrid attacks, the immediate assumption will be the politically expedient idea that Muslim extremists are responsible, and all over Europe people will carry out revenge attacks against innocent people with brown skin. It will later become clear that a domestic European terror group is repsonsible, but European Muslims, Arabs, East Africans and South Asians will continue to be persecuted by organised civilian militias, in an echo of Loyalist paramilitary groups in Northern Ireland being formed as a reaction against Republican terrorism. As in NI, these will continue to be active long after Muslim terrorism has receded.
6. President Bush will see his core team in government fall apart around him, as Dick Cheney resigns with ill health, & Donald Rumsfeld and Karl Rove get mired in continuing Plamegate fall-out. With few, or none, of his key players, left to give him strategic and tactical direction, Bush will become the lame duck president his supporters feared and his enemies hoped for. He will stagger on for his full term because the Democrats will continue in their disarray, although Barrack Obama will emerge as the clear front-runner for presidential candacy, leading to a reformed party and a revival in electoral fortunes in 2007/8. However, Republicans in Congress will no longer treat the Bush presidency seriously and will be the drivers of change.
7. Tony Blair will remain in Downing Street for the whole of 2006. The Conservatives will make gains in the spring local elections under David Cameron, but this will mostly be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats, not Labour. He will step down in early 2007 in favour of Gordon Brown, who will by then be acclaimed on all sides as the most successful and competant Chancellor in British history, and will bring many supporters back to Labour who left because of Tony Blair. This will sustain them for another election win with an enlarged majority in 2010, after which time Brown will prove himself more of a Blairite than anyone thought, and we'll be back to more or less where we are now. Towars the end of Brown's first term, the Private Finance Initiative - pioneered by Brown hiimself and exported across the world - will be revealed as a colossaly expensive white elephant, and cause a major rethink of the public sector. Those areas that survive in the public domain will be legally barred from using private money.
8. Charles Kennedy will be ousted from the Liberal leadership as a result, after which time it will become clear that his health problems were much worse than anyone thought (Perhaps he will enter rehab as a full-blown alcoholic, or will be revealed to have lung cancer, coronary heart disease, or some other disease caused by years of heavy smoking and drinking).
9. Cameron's promised policy reviews will not surface during 2006, and by the end of the year will come to be seen as spin, artifice and manipulation on a grand scale. Cameron's poll ratings will fall below even the 30% mark that has been the Tory floor since the early 1990s. The Lib Dems, newly confidant under a new leader, will be the main beneficiaries, and will sustain this into the 2010 election, at which point they will finally overtake the Tories to become the Official Opposition.
10. A spate of Dolby-enabled 3D movies, which produce genuinely startling realism, will be released in the last three months of 2006. This will start small, but a partnership with a major games console maker on their generation-after-next console (most likely the Sony PS4, but conceivably the XBox 720, or whatever it's called) will bring costs of the 3D equipment low enough to equip most cinemas in the developed world with at least one Dolby 3D-enabled screen. This will give a step-change advantage over televison for the first time since colour broadcasting began, and cinema audiences will rise significantly.
11. The 2006 hurricane season will produce fewer severe storms than 2005 (still at least two), but this will be outweighed by devastating typhoons hitting East Asia, including Japan, North & South Korea, coastal China, Malaysia, Indonesia, and even Eastern Australia. Pacific shipping traffic problems, pipeline & refinery damage, and continued strong demand, will conspire to keep oil prices at historic highs for most of the year.
12. Two major earthquakes will again cause widespread and severe damage and loss of life. I don't know where, but I suspect the hottest spots might be the Pacific Northwestern USA/Canada, Asia Minor, and the same submarine fault off Indonesia that gave rise to the big tsunamis of late 2004.
13. Ariel Sharon's health problems will worsen, such that he has to step down from public life. A prolonged struggle for control of the Knesset will result, creating opportunities for hardline Palestinian terror groups to cause further havoc, perhaps overtly backed by Iran. However, reforming liberals will eventually gain control, as the people come to see that 30 years of hardline Zionism - while it has gone some way to control terrorism - has been counter-productive in its eradication, and seek a more partnership-centred solution in the Occupied Territories. This will sow seeds for a reconciliation between Israel and the Arab world that takes place during the following decade. In this medium term, this new peace and spirit of cooperation will enable the Middle Eastern region to become the next source of cheap labour. In turn, the rise in living standards and diversification of economies away from oil will put pressure on remaining oppressive government to make major democratic and reformist concessions, particularly in the scope of democracy and the status of women.
14. In revenge for Iranian support for terrorism, Israel will carry out a few targeted military strikes. In the aftermath of confusion, Europe will use it's formal diplomatic ties. Taken together, these two initiatives will help topple the Iranian government from below, in a peaceful revolution, echoing the 'orange' revolutions of Eastern Europe, that brings much greater liberty and democracy to the Iranian people. In a new settlement, clerical Shia Islam will retain a central state role, but this will quickly evolve to mere cermonials, along parallel lines to the constitutional monarchy - a 'constitutional theocracy', if you will. This will be in stark contrast to Iraq, which will continue to stagger feebly on the path to true democracy, and will need continued coalition support.
15. These developments will cause apoplectic rage by extremists on all sides. Fundamentalist Muslims and Jews will see developments in Israel/Palestine and Iran as betrayals of their 'true faith' and will rail loudly, and sometimes violently, as the tide of history leaves them behind. This will be echoed in the debate over the War on Terror, where the pro-war camp is confounded, and secretly frustrated, that their efforts to do the right thing in Iraq are frustrated at every turn, whereas the rest of the Axis of Evil seems quite capable of reforming itself with very limited outside intervention (and none at all from the USA). The anti-war camp will comfort themselves, and further enrage their opponents, with yet more "I-told-you-so"s.

I guess overall I think it'll be another tough year for many, but that we'll generally have some substantial causes for optimism, usually in spite of, rather than because of, the kind of corporatist and interventionist mood that thas had the upper hand in world affairs for the last decade or so.

Bush will deliver State of the Union (Pep Rally 6.0) in about a month. At the beginning, the band will get mixed up and play "The Monkey Wrapped His Tail Around the Flagpole" instead of "Hail to the Chief." There are lot's of red faces in the audience as well as some laughter from Ted Kennedy and some others. Soon that's forgotten, and Bush takes the podium. As he outlines his agenda, members of Congress jump to their feet on cue, as if they were jacks-in-the-box, with unbridled cheering. Someone may even sound an air-horn. Shortly thereafter, it will sink in that the folks back home don't like the proposals, just as they didn't like his Social Security proposals last year.

On most of his proposals Bush will have to punt from deep in his own end-zone. If we're lucky, someone may even drop him for a safety.