Full Version: If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it split the GOP
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10839026/site/newsweek/
The Republican Party is full of secret pro-choicers. If Alito helps to overturn Roe v. Wade, it could crack open the GOP coalition in the country and on Capitol Hill.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10839026/site/newsweek/page/2/
It's pretty clear where Alito is headed on abortion rights. He refused to say whether he agreed with the characterization of the 1973 Roe ruling as "settled law," that couldn’t be re-examined. Now that the GOP is within striking distance of overturning Roe, they're having second thoughts. The public is not ready to abandon the landmark case legalizing abortion, and neither is the Republican Party. They used abortion as a wedge issue because the politics worked; they really didn't think abortion would ever be banned. "Any activist will tell you they'd rather have the issue out there than to have it resolved," says this pro-choice Republican, who has worked on the Hill and for various Republican interest groups. "If Roe were overturned, we'd be electing Democrats as far as the eye can see."
According to this source, even committed right-to-life activists don't want Roe struck from the books before society is ready. "They think if given the time, they can change the culture. I think they're deluded, but they know it's going to take time."
If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it fracture the Republican Party?
The Republican Party is full of secret pro-choicers. If Alito helps to overturn Roe v. Wade, it could crack open the GOP coalition in the country and on Capitol Hill.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10839026/site/newsweek/page/2/
It's pretty clear where Alito is headed on abortion rights. He refused to say whether he agreed with the characterization of the 1973 Roe ruling as "settled law," that couldn’t be re-examined. Now that the GOP is within striking distance of overturning Roe, they're having second thoughts. The public is not ready to abandon the landmark case legalizing abortion, and neither is the Republican Party. They used abortion as a wedge issue because the politics worked; they really didn't think abortion would ever be banned. "Any activist will tell you they'd rather have the issue out there than to have it resolved," says this pro-choice Republican, who has worked on the Hill and for various Republican interest groups. "If Roe were overturned, we'd be electing Democrats as far as the eye can see."
According to this source, even committed right-to-life activists don't want Roe struck from the books before society is ready. "They think if given the time, they can change the culture. I think they're deluded, but they know it's going to take time."
If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it fracture the Republican Party?
If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it fracture the Republican Party?
It may happen at the state level, but I don't foresee it at the federal level so much, as long as the Repubicans don't try to get Congress involved. I think the federal partial-birth abortion ban was a mistake, because it had no greater chance of getting past the courts than any of the state legislative attempts did, and all it did was reinforce the notion that the Republicans are willing to impose their morals at a national level. If Roe's about to become history (and even if it's not), then the Republicans' best strategy is to keep their abortion politics local.
It may happen at the state level, but I don't foresee it at the federal level so much, as long as the Repubicans don't try to get Congress involved. I think the federal partial-birth abortion ban was a mistake, because it had no greater chance of getting past the courts than any of the state legislative attempts did, and all it did was reinforce the notion that the Republicans are willing to impose their morals at a national level. If Roe's about to become history (and even if it's not), then the Republicans' best strategy is to keep their abortion politics local.
I don't see it happening this way. First of all, I think it quite unlikely that Roe v Wade will actually be tossed out. For the sake of discussion, let's assume that it is.
For one thing, this suddenly makes the United States into a crazy quilt of wildly divergent state laws on abortion. As Blackstone has pointed out, this heats up state politics to a much greater extent than national politics.
On a national level, there will be a connection in the minds of the electorate between the elimination of Roe v Wade and the GOP-appointed Justices. One effect of this, it seems to me, would be an even stronger link between the Religious Right and the Republican Party. This link is already so strong that this would be, at most, a minor effect. There might also be a slight weakening among more "libertarian" Republicans, although I suspect the vast majority of these support the GOP for reasons that have nothing to do with abortion.
The major political effect of the overthrow of Roe v Wade, I think, would be to fire up the activism of pro-choice feminists. (Obviously the majority of feminists, but not all of them.) This would tend to strengthen the Democratic Party a little bit, and slightly weaken the GOP (which is not likely to have very much support from feminists anyway.)
All of these political considerations should have nothing to do with one's postion on abortion, of course.
For one thing, this suddenly makes the United States into a crazy quilt of wildly divergent state laws on abortion. As Blackstone has pointed out, this heats up state politics to a much greater extent than national politics.
On a national level, there will be a connection in the minds of the electorate between the elimination of Roe v Wade and the GOP-appointed Justices. One effect of this, it seems to me, would be an even stronger link between the Religious Right and the Republican Party. This link is already so strong that this would be, at most, a minor effect. There might also be a slight weakening among more "libertarian" Republicans, although I suspect the vast majority of these support the GOP for reasons that have nothing to do with abortion.
The major political effect of the overthrow of Roe v Wade, I think, would be to fire up the activism of pro-choice feminists. (Obviously the majority of feminists, but not all of them.) This would tend to strengthen the Democratic Party a little bit, and slightly weaken the GOP (which is not likely to have very much support from feminists anyway.)
All of these political considerations should have nothing to do with one's postion on abortion, of course.
I don't see it splitting the GOP. The GOP is a well designed machine for all interested parties to get what they want:
1) The right wing christians want religion prevalent and abortion eliminated.
2) The wealthy want to eliminate gov't functions that help the poor and middle class, and cut taxes for themselves (and maybe whoever else).
It's a great combination because neither interest really conflicts with the other. On one hand the wealthy get what they want, tax cuts for themselves, and the christians get rid of RvW and access to the white house.
So they work in harmony. The christians deliver votes, the wealthy deliver money and propaganda.
I don't think RvW will do much to the republican party. On the other hand, the christians are highly organized and motivated because of RvW. So the pendulum may swing toward liberals to now become energized and organized.
I think overturning RvW would do for the left what having RvW did for the right. And it may diminish the christian right since they've gotten what they wanted.
1) The right wing christians want religion prevalent and abortion eliminated.
2) The wealthy want to eliminate gov't functions that help the poor and middle class, and cut taxes for themselves (and maybe whoever else).
It's a great combination because neither interest really conflicts with the other. On one hand the wealthy get what they want, tax cuts for themselves, and the christians get rid of RvW and access to the white house.
So they work in harmony. The christians deliver votes, the wealthy deliver money and propaganda.
I don't think RvW will do much to the republican party. On the other hand, the christians are highly organized and motivated because of RvW. So the pendulum may swing toward liberals to now become energized and organized.
I think overturning RvW would do for the left what having RvW did for the right. And it may diminish the christian right since they've gotten what they wanted.
If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it fracture the Republican Party? No, but it would be a disaster for the Democrat Party.
Nationally, the Republican Party has a pro-life platform that does incorporate some circumstances permitting abortion. The Democrats on a national level, certainly by their behavior over the last two decades, are absolutist. By keeping things in the courts, they've been able to use Roe v Wade as cover, essentially saying "my personal perspective doesn't matter, because the Supremes have spoken". This curious condition allows "pro-life" Democrats at the state level to morph into pro-abortion national candidates without taking a political hit.
At the state level, Democrats who are simply shamming pro-life, say, in Alabama or the like, will find that what they say actually matters, and their constituents will expect them to vote pro-life, or be voted out. While the same can be said for Republicans who are "secretly pro-choice", the Republican Party itself has a much longer history of accomodating dissenters on this issue than the Democrats.
Nationally, the Republican Party has a pro-life platform that does incorporate some circumstances permitting abortion. The Democrats on a national level, certainly by their behavior over the last two decades, are absolutist. By keeping things in the courts, they've been able to use Roe v Wade as cover, essentially saying "my personal perspective doesn't matter, because the Supremes have spoken". This curious condition allows "pro-life" Democrats at the state level to morph into pro-abortion national candidates without taking a political hit.
At the state level, Democrats who are simply shamming pro-life, say, in Alabama or the like, will find that what they say actually matters, and their constituents will expect them to vote pro-life, or be voted out. While the same can be said for Republicans who are "secretly pro-choice", the Republican Party itself has a much longer history of accomodating dissenters on this issue than the Democrats.
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If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it fracture the Republican Party?
I don't believe it would. Those who are pro-choice would likely fall under the "state's rights" theory of letting the states decide, which is actually a strong republican trait. I don't see a groundswell of pro-choice republicans out there in the party, though moderates and christian conservatives have fought it out in various states. Even the centrists/moderates disagree on other issues rather than abortion. The biggest example I can think of is Christine Todd Whitman's PAC- It's My Party Too. The number of pro-choice republicans who would defect would be countered by those who are pro-life democrats and third party members anyways.
If Roe v Wade is overturned; will it fracture the Republican Party?
No, not in the least, nor will it impact the democratic party.
If Roe is overturned it will be because the logic used to provide for the abortion act will be overturned, not the act of abortion. Abortion will return to the states to determine this act as legal or not, per the 9th amendment.
The incorporating effect of the 14th amendment will be corrected and thus the privileges and immunites per the 14th will be those enumerated. The 9th and 10th amendments will be held as not changed by the 14th amendment, providing for sovereingty the states have per the constitution.
If Roe is overturned, it will be the quelling of the usurpation of the federal government taking of state powers and the rights of the people in self-determination.
No, not in the least, nor will it impact the democratic party.
If Roe is overturned it will be because the logic used to provide for the abortion act will be overturned, not the act of abortion. Abortion will return to the states to determine this act as legal or not, per the 9th amendment.
The incorporating effect of the 14th amendment will be corrected and thus the privileges and immunites per the 14th will be those enumerated. The 9th and 10th amendments will be held as not changed by the 14th amendment, providing for sovereingty the states have per the constitution.
If Roe is overturned, it will be the quelling of the usurpation of the federal government taking of state powers and the rights of the people in self-determination.
All this talk about States Right; So if some States want to reintroduce Slavery; it’s A-Ok? But I digress.
I appreciated the responses, but none touch on one important issue. Those who want to impose their version of morality on us, similarl to what the Taliban did in Afghanistan, are actually a small minority.
Their goal is to eliminate Abortion, and they are using the GOP as the vehicle to get to their destination. And from some of their comments; it looks like they view contraception with the same vision.
They will not be happy unless there is a 100% ban. This is evident by the Partial Birth abortion ban that was flogged, that contained no exception for the mother’s life if it was in danger.
If they do not get this, they will still feel abandoned by the GOP. And if they get this, 80%, or more, of the Population does not want a Total Ban.
And while that Group may be a small minority of the overall Population, they make up a good chunk of those who voted for the GOP.
I appreciated the responses, but none touch on one important issue. Those who want to impose their version of morality on us, similarl to what the Taliban did in Afghanistan, are actually a small minority.
Their goal is to eliminate Abortion, and they are using the GOP as the vehicle to get to their destination. And from some of their comments; it looks like they view contraception with the same vision.
They will not be happy unless there is a 100% ban. This is evident by the Partial Birth abortion ban that was flogged, that contained no exception for the mother’s life if it was in danger.
If they do not get this, they will still feel abandoned by the GOP. And if they get this, 80%, or more, of the Population does not want a Total Ban.
And while that Group may be a small minority of the overall Population, they make up a good chunk of those who voted for the GOP.
I don't think that either party will implode if RvW is reversed. I think that certain extremists groups would have collective apoplexy though. The reason that RvW is still such a big issue so many years after the case is not because Joe & Judy American really care about it but because the two extremes care about it so much. I appose RvW in a Pro-Choice way. I feel that once a woman is pregnant then she has made her choice. Rape and incest didn't make a choice so that free up them to still make a choice. Unforseen changes in the mothers medical condition which, if previously known, would have changed her choice leaves things open for her.
Simplistic, yes. But I am not going to scream bloody murder if I can't get a candidate/nominee to agree with me. I think that using one issue to determine a candidate/nominees qualifications to fulfill their job duties is wrong. My thought is that if the reversal of RvW or any other case causes one of the parties to disintegrate then that is for the better. Any party that is a one issue party doesn't deserve to survive.
The Slavery issue has been decided long ago by Constitutional amendment. It has nothing to do with RvW. If you feel that RvW should not be a states rights issue then please use a different argument than this.
Simplistic, yes. But I am not going to scream bloody murder if I can't get a candidate/nominee to agree with me. I think that using one issue to determine a candidate/nominees qualifications to fulfill their job duties is wrong. My thought is that if the reversal of RvW or any other case causes one of the parties to disintegrate then that is for the better. Any party that is a one issue party doesn't deserve to survive.
QUOTE(Kuni @ Jan 16 2006, 12:47 PM)
All this talk about States Right; So if some States want to reintroduce Slavery; it’s A-Ok? But I digress.
The Slavery issue has been decided long ago by Constitutional amendment. It has nothing to do with RvW. If you feel that RvW should not be a states rights issue then please use a different argument than this.
QUOTE(Kuni @ Jan 16 2006, 01:47 PM)
All this talk about States Right; So if some States want to reintroduce Slavery; it’s A-Ok? But I digress.
If some States want to reintroduce slavery, they have to convince an overwhelming majority of Americans to repeal the 13th Amendment. Either you know that, and have chosen to ignore it, or you don't. In the interest of charitable debate, I will not ascribe your "digression" to ignorance.QUOTE
I appreciated the responses, but none touch on one important issue. Those who want to impose their version of morality on us, similarl to what the Taliban did in Afghanistan, are actually a small minority.
Nice to know that Susan B. Anthony and Elizabeth Stanton are talibanesque. QUOTE
Their goal is to eliminate Abortion, and they are using the GOP as the vehicle to get to their destination. And from some of their comments; it looks like they view contraception with the same vision.
Practicing Roman Catholics take a very dim view towards contraception, the evangelical Protestant component of the pro-life community has no problem with contraception. RC pro-lifers are equally divided between the Democrats and GOP. This means the evangelicals, aka "Religious Right", using the GOP as their vehicle, don't fit your erroneous characterization.QUOTE
They will not be happy unless there is a 100% ban. This is evident by the Partial Birth abortion ban that was flogged, that contained no exception for the mother’s life if it was in danger.
It contained no exception because the determination was made that partial birth abortion is never medically necessary. I suggest that you read the Partial Birth Abortion Act yourself.QUOTE
If they do not get this, they will still feel abandoned by the GOP. And if they get this, 80%, or more, of the Population does not want a Total Ban.
Actually, I don't know of anybody who wants a total ban, including your purported 20%. All pro-lifers that I'm aware of allow for abortion when medically necessary to save the life of the mother. Some, myself included, do not allow abortion in cases of rape and incest, under the doctrine that one wrong does not justify another. There is, as I mentioned previously, a significant element on the pro-choice side that is absolutist, what we could cleverly
term "the total ban on any bans" folks.
QUOTE
The Slavery issue has been decided long ago by Constitutional amendment. It has nothing to do with RvW
You’re right; that was a bad example. Substitute “Inter-Racial marriage” instead.
If Roe v. Wade were overturned, I think it would cause tension on an individual level. Whether or not it would split the party, I do not really think so. They are far too organized and united on other things. Abortion stances have yet to split an American political party and I do not see it happening over a case in the Supreme Court.
Since you use the word 'fracture' and not 'split,' I would agree that it would defiantly cause a rift but not a full-blown schism.
Since you use the word 'fracture' and not 'split,' I would agree that it would defiantly cause a rift but not a full-blown schism.
I believe the Roe V Wade will be overturned. When it does I think there will be tremendous political upheaval but as a previous poster stated. It will be within the Democratic party. The Dems complete failure to prevent the turnover will have it's constituency go insane. I think we are within 5 years of this happening or possibly sooner. I think the republicans want it going to the supreme court before Bush leaves office just in case a Dem goes into the White House.
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