QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 16 2006, 11:00 PM)
The people in this town were hosting their friends and they knew exactly who they were.
I'm always a little surprised by this logic. Even if al-Zawahiri
were present - and it looks very much like he was not - he's one of the most wanted men on the planet and unlikely to have been travelling alone and unarmed. More likely, he was with a small team of highly dangerous people, armed to the teeth; or he was travelling incognito; or (most likely) both.
So it's not a certainty that the people he was with (or not with as it turned out) were aware of his presence, or that they were sympathisers. They might have been just ordinary people unaware of the nature of the strangers to whom their culture requires them to give their hospitality. As we're constantly told, this is a lawless area, so being armed isn't on it's own going to raise anyone's eyebrows, since anyone sane in the area is going to arm themselves when moving around.
Personally, I find this a rather credible idea. After all,
where did the initial intelligence come from?. We know the Pakistani government's remit doesn't run in this area - it's supposedly one of the reasons why ground forces didn't go in with an arrrest warrant, after all, so it doesn't seem obvious that they'd know specifically where a particular target was. It seems to me that the most likely way we'll catch someone like al-Zawahiri in such country is that the locals will tell us where he is or where he's going to be, but won't do anything themselves because they know the bad guys will hurt them (or maybe put out false intelligence to sucker the US into bombing random villages, acting as both a recruiting sargeant and a warning to any village that informs on them).
They may have been perfectly aware of who and what their visitors were, and giving their hospitality at gunpoint (a-Q has no special record of treating ordinary Muslims any better than it treats anyone else who isn't a fanatical Wahabist jihadi).
It is also
possible that the locals were all passive a-Q sympathisers, but this is not automatically the most likely situation, especially given that al-Zawahiri and co
were not there at the time of the attack.
QUOTE
AND we apparently have used the missile from drone before with success. See below.
Perhaps, but this attack was not a success, was it?
QUOTE(Hobbes @ Jan 16 2006, 11:06 PM)
No, I am not making that assertion. I am stating that there isn't any evidence that they weren't consorting with them at all, whereas there is evidence that intelligence indicated that they were. Therefore, all those assuming that these were in fact *innocent* civilians are making a conclusion without any evidence supporting their position.
There is no "therefore" in this case, because the intelligence that supposed that they were consorting with them was WRONG. That's why no terror suspects' bodies were recovered, only those of ordinary villagers.
The logic you're applying is much the same as me saying that because chickens have webbed feet, they must be the legitimate target of a duck hunt. The first premise is demonstrably WRONG, and the post-justification of "well, they all had feathers, so we were okay shooting at them" is exactly that -
post justification.
Even in modern war - where the 90:10 military to civilian casualty ratio found in, say, the Falklands Conflict has been reversed - the killing of civilians is only acceptable as collateral damage to operations achieving some kind of higher objective (such as the capture or killing a legitimate target). When the killing of civilians happens on it's own, it's only polite to apologise. Saying "well, they were probably guilty anyway" just doesn't cut it.
QUOTE(Hobbes @ Jan 17 2006, 08:26 AM)
The fact that the attack occurred is evidence that intelligence indicated al-Zwahiri was planning on visiting the compound, as is the fact that such information was disclosed immediately after the attack. Could this intelligence be faulty? Certainly. However, what evidence is there that this is the case? Currently, none.
So, to claim that these were innocent civilians is a bland assertion, as well. That is all I am saying...that until more information is known, making claims about the innocence of the victims is just as much an assertion as the opposite.
That would be the case if we didn't have a long-standing, nay,
hallowed principle at the centre of our civilisation's attitude to justice that everyone is presumed innocent until proven otherwise. If we sacrifice all pretence to that goal in our desire for revenge for 9-11 (it can only be said to be justice in this case inasmuch as this operation was a blind as she is), how are we any different from the people we claim are so inferior to us?
QUOTE
So, there is inherently a balancing act to be played. Err too much on the side of caution, and the targets will likely go unapprehended for sufficient time for them to plan and execute another attack. Err too much on the side of aggression, and innocent civilians are victims, which is unfortunate in its own right, and also has potential negative ramifactions on the antiterror effort.
Quite so. I'm glad that you see that it's possible to be too aggressive and that that has negative consequences not only for the unfortunate victims of that aggression, but also for the aggressor in the long run. What do civilised people usually do when they err? They apologise, don't they? So why hasn't America apologised for this, instead blustering on about collateral damage, legitimate targets and faulty intelligence. It seems everyone else is to blame in circumstances like this where America "errs", including the victims themselves. America herself, and her armed forces, are blameless.

QUOTE
So, you take all this into account, and some level of force based on some level of intelligence is certainly not only justified, but the only prudent course of action. At this point, we don't have any evidence that anything other than this was the case.
Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. Nobody defending this kind of actio seems to have any problem with this principle when they are trying to say that "just because al-Zawahiri wasn't there at the time doesn't mean he hadn't been or hadn't planned to be there".
This cuts both ways - he
wasn't there, and just becase there is no current evidence that force was not only unnecessary but counter productive doesn't mean that is not the case.
Enough rebuttals - to the debate questions:
1. Was the missile attack the work of US forces in Afghanistan? If not, who was responsible?I believe so, and the US hasn't denied responsibility - I don't doubt the US would have done so if they weren't involved.
2. Was this a justified action in the war on terror?Only using the kind of tortured post-justification logic used above, but that's nothing new in the GWOT.
3. Whether justified or not, what will be the outcome of such attacks? Extended and deepened anitpathy towards the USA in the Muslim world. Extended and deepened antipathy/contempt/ridicule towards the USA in the rest of the first world, even among supportive nations.
Will the war on terror spread into Pakistan?It's been there since the outset - the Taliban were largely trained in Pakistan, with covert help from the Pakistani government, and the US. The win-at-all-costs mentality of the Cold War had unintended consequences, one of which has been the rise of Muslim extremism (which, at one time, was seen as at least preferable to Communism). Now we have a win-at-all-costs mentality for the War on Terror. Eventually, that will calm down (with a less obvious victory, I think), but what consequences have not been foreseen of this one?
Will the people and government of Pakistan support or oppose such actions by the USA?Musharref is esentially an opportunist, like all dictators. His domestic opponents are mostly Islamic extremists, so it's useful to him to cosy up to the USA, especially since India (his main foreign opponent) is much less close to America. I don't doubt for a second that, had the attack been successful, he would have praised it to the skies, and played up the part played in it (if any) by the Pakistani security forces.
As it is, he realises that he has to keep a semblance of majority opinion on his side, so he plays up the hurt pride at the infringement of sovereignty, as he has done.
The cosy relationship to Pakistan is one of the things that bothers me about the GWOT - if it's about democracy and freedom, why are we so pally with Musharref (and, for that matter, the Saudi Arabian royal family)? Both openly indulge Islamic extremists domestically - most of the
madrassas at which the extremist imams learn their hate-filled rhetoric are in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, yet we bat nary an eyelid at this, instead preferring to invade Iraq with little cogent idea about what happens afterwards. Pakistan obtained nuclear weapons illegally, just like Iran (supposedly) want to do, yet Pakistan is our best mate in the region and serious commentators are suggesting targeted military strikes against Iran with straight faces.
Huh?