What kind of political fallout would you expect from this incident?I've already answered this and stand by my initial response in terms of what fallout I
expected. I've since modulated my opinion on what the fallout may actually
be.
In my first post, I said:
QUOTE
It appears to have been a hunting accident - with the operative word being accident. ... Should that prove to be the case... there shouldn't be any political fallout.
I had assumed at the time that, were Cheney innocent of any wrong-doing, there would be a brief statement with an explanation of the facts and some sort of apology to the Whittingtons and those who are capable of using firearms safely. I had no idea that, even if Cheney
were innocent of any wrong-doing, the administration would respond with secrecy, evasion, obfuscation, equivocation, and lies.
There may not be much fallout from the shooting incident itself, but the typical Bush administration reaction
could cause considerable fallout. It
might even prove the downfall of Dick Cheney.
First, with this incident, the Bush administration may be alientating a significant portion of one group that has, so far, had no direct reason to be displeased with the neocons: the gun lobby. Those who may still believe in Santa - er, Good Hunter Cheney might want to read the
current editorial at
Field & Stream (where over 80% of readers so far feel that the incident will "do significant damage to public perception of hunters"):
QUOTE
Upland bird hunters everywhere knew exactly what had happened when word spread this past weekend that Vice President Dick Cheney shot a quail-hunting companion in South Texas, but some media reports made it sound as if the victim were to blame.
A quail flushed. Vice President Cheney swung his 28-gauge shotgun on the bird and tugged the trigger. His 78-year-old buddy, Austin attorney Harry Whittington, took a piece of the shot string in the upper body and face. Luckily, they were about 30 yards apart, far enough that pinhead-sized quail shot did minimal damage. [emphasis mine]
Field & Stream editor Doug Pike, who also covers the outdoors for the
Houston Chronicle, goes on to dismiss what hunt hostess Katharine Armstrong called the "Texas protocol" of announcing one's presence as "misleading" and plainly states that "the onus is on everyone who carries a gun not to shoot at anyone else". This makes sense to me. It even makes sense to the NRA.
And the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department's report states that the main contributing factor to the accident was a "hunter's judgment factor".
According to
Slate, there
is a protocol to quail hunting - a real one, not an Armstrong invention:
QUOTE
The hunters are supposed to maintain a horizontal line as they move forward, but this is easier than it sounds in rough country. When someone falls behind - someone, for instance, like Harry Whittington - the person in charge calls a halt until the line forms up again. Whittington, as we know, dropped back to pick up a bird. This happens all the time in quail hunting; the question is, why did the other two hunters keep going?
Among veteran quail hunters, there's speculation that no one was in charge of the hunt - as a someone who was not shooting
should have been - or that they didn't know what they were doing. So this was, at the very least, poor judgement
compounded by recklessness.
Further, Cheney
was violating the law - Parks & Wildlife Code 43.652 (according to the eventual
police report). So that's poor judgement compounded by
unlawful recklessness. So much for the Great White Hunter.
Field & Stream concludes:
QUOTE
Cheney shot another hunter. Sooner better than later, he should own up to his mistake.
And that is the crux of the problem. This administration is incapable of owning up to
any mistake. One of the reasons people seem to be latching onto this is that it
is so bloody typical. Not only should "poor judgement compounded by unlawful recklessness" ring more than a few bells, but the response to the incident is also the White House
modus operandi writ large: secrecy, arrogance, evasion of the facts, conflicting stories, and the refusal to accept responsibility. Why the standard operating procedure in relation to a
hunting accident?Maybe it's because, like most everything else about which this administration prevaricates, there
is something to hide. What is most suspicious in this regard is extent to which the story by the only "witness" who has come forward (and the only one cited in the eventual police report) is so contradictory, that of "Cheney's alibi", Katharine Armstrong.
Ms. Armstrong, a White House lobbyist who depends on her good relations with the Oval Office, claimed that "Whittington came up from behind the Vice-President and the other hunter and didn't signal them or indicate to them or announce himself." That's the statement I saw her make on CNN - and the one which has become the official line. However, Armstrong was
in a car 100 yards away at the time and
later amended her account:
QUOTE
Armstrong said she saw Cheney's security detail running toward the scene. "The first thing that crossed my mind was he had a heart problem."
So, uh... she
didn't see the shooting - and couldn't possibly have heard whether or not Whittington had followed the non-existent "Texas protocol". Is Armstrong also the source of the reported "thirty yard" distance between the shooter and the victim? According to
Slate:
QUOTE
Whittington's friends question whether the pellets could have penetrated his layers of clothing and skin at that range. Yet two pellets lodged against his larynx, another was in his liver, and another migrated into the heart muscle, causing the heart attack. The pattern of wounds was between the lower chest and the forehead, a pretty tight zone for shot of 30 yards.
Yet Armstrong
claimed that the wound "knocked [Whittington] silly, but he was fine" and that "bruised more than bloodied, and his pride was hurt more than anything else", while other
witnesses state that Whittington was "bleeding profusely from wounds to his face, neck and chest".
Whose idea
was it to go public - and when? Our reliable Ms. Armstrong has at least two different stories: she and Cheney decided Saturday night when they could think of niothing but Whittington's well-being and/or she decided on her own Sunday morning ( in one version, in consultation with her family). Interestingly, in two versions, the Veep had nothing whatsoever to do with going public or not.
And what
about alcohol? Reliable Kate first told the press that no one in the party was drinking: "No, zero, zippo - and I don't drink at all. No one was drinking." But she later told
NBC (the link is to a screen-grab - the original story has been scrubbed

):
QUOTE
There may have been beer available during a picnic lunch that preceded the incident. "There may be a beer or two in there," she said, "but remember not everyone in the party was shooting."
She doesn't say who may or may not have been drinking
or who may or may not have been shooting. Perhaps Cheney
wasn't drinking. Perhaps the person who was supposed to be in charge of the hunt - and who failed to halt the line when Whittington dropped back -
was. Assuming that such a person existed. With a "witness" like Armstrong, we will never know - especially after her statements have been filtered through none other than Karl Rove (with whom she spoke hours after the incident).
Was there malfeasance on the part of Cheney or another member of the shooting party? As with so much else surrounding this administration, it's unlikely that all the facts will ever come to light. It remains probable that this was no more than a simple hunting accident. But it is the response from the White House that is creating the fallout. Considering the crimes of Dick Cheney, it would be ironic if something relatively innocuous, like the shooting of a Republican lawyer, brought him down - sort of like Al Capone getting done for tax evasion.
Maybe there
is good reason for the secrecy, evasion, obfuscation, equivocation, and lies. Maybe there
is something to cover up, however minor. Or maybe, to paraphrase Dick Gephardt, it's just that "they can't help it, they're the Bush administration."