I think some of the best and most cogent thoughts in this thread have come from the right. I also think it is the easier side to take, to speak out for old-fashioned self-reliance, but those positions have not been so one-dimensional to not acknowledge some of the merits of our present system.
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[Amlord,Jun 6 2006, 10:01 AM]
How necessary is Social Security's existence today?
I believe that Social Security has been a mixed bag over the years. On one hand, it has kept seniors out of poverty to a large degree. In fact, seniors are the wealthiest age bracket in the United States. Of course, having a large wealth transfer program in their favor (over a half a trillion dollars) helps that a whole lot.
The main problem I see today is seniors' dependence and expectations that the Social Security program will be there for them. This expectation causes them to adjust their saving behavior in a negative way.
To start here. Yes, Social Security (and its add in programs) have played a leading role in reducing poverty among our elderly and also int he United States.
But don't forget that the current post 1970s generation of retirees have had the benefit of an overall very strong American economy. (Boom periods 1945-1970, 1983-1988, 1994-2000) And also I would think we could all generally agree it is much easier to save when you make much more and you don't get slammed by recessions and layoffs.
I do not see evidence of a lack of savings created by social security. in fact if anything, the fact that seniors used to be one of the poorest demographic groups in the country shows a pattern in American history of low savings rates.
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[still from AmLord]
So the impact of SS has been reduced savings (bad), increased public debt (bad), increased dependence on the government (very bad) and generally wealthier seniors (very good if you are a senior). Do the goods outweigh the bads? I don't think so, but others might disagree.
As for savings I haven't seen the evidence of good savings before SS. Increased public debt has been a horrific consequence by politicians and acceptance from the public of a mismanagement of out public finances by letting ourselves get our grubby hands on our Social Security surpluses, spending it, and still expecting it to be available to be spent again later.
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A critical thing to keep in mind is that the Supreme Court ruled (in 1960 Flemming v. Nestor) that current SS payees have no contractual guarantee to have their money returned. We could legally end SS tomorrow if we (the government) wanted to.
But it would be patently unfair and would deprive Americans of there paid in benefits even at the documented weak rate of return that it provides for Americans. And then we would be busy supporting a generations of impoverished seniors.
Or as you say . . .
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Although I am against the very premise of Social Security, even I will concede that an immediate end to Social Security would be very bad indeed.
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I think it should be phased out. I think it would increase our net savings rate, causing us to be more focused on personal responsibility and remove this expectation that the government will take care of us in our old age.
I agree on a limited basis. As a forces savings plan it does not pay well. But often in this debate we miss the insurance aspects of the program. Some of us die after paying into the system for six months. Some die the week they start collecting. Some collect for forty years. There is a risk to planning for retirement and some insurance system is the solution. We need to hedge against the possibility of living to 100 while allowing what might have been our wealth to leave to descendants not become ours if we die at the age of 65.
Also, I do take issue with your description of the payroll deductions as a "wealth transfer." I think social security is a scheme to get the poor to insure their own retirements and insulate the very wealthy from a real "wealth transfer." The payroll deduction system is extremely regressive and probably does injure the people that are designed to take the benefits. But it is a forces savings/insurance program that keeps the elderly at a certain standard of living.
QUOTE(Amlord @ Jun 6 2006, 12:51 PM)
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-Assuming they have the money to do so. Does a single mother of two children have the luxury of putting aside 10% of her annual salary for her old age?
The current FICA rate is 6.2% for Social Security (we'll leave out the 1.45% for Medicare). The employer matches that. A quick math calculation puts that at 12.4% of every working class person's wages. So, yes, if we didn't have FICA every single taxpayer could realistically and without pain save 12.4% of their income every year.
Extremely good point. But we do need to wage a war against consumerism, or at least redirect toward buying spending. I think the American win-win mentality serves it well in some cases but in taking the buy now, we culturally are very poor at the pay later aspects.
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I've done these calculations before. If a person earning minimum wage ($5.25 per hour) socks away 12.4% of their income over a 45 year career (working from age 18 to age 63) at even a 5% return, they will have $207929. If they get payouts over a 20 year period (continuing with 5% interest) they will get $15,890.25 back every year over that 20 year period. Even over a 40 year payout, they would receive over $11.500--more than they made each year during their career.
But what will $15 k per year be worth 45 tears from now? it sounds good now but it might mean taking your children who have to support you on one vacation a year after all of those working years.
And yes, no worker does work at minimum wage, but what about layoffs? What about disability?
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The only requirement for this scenario is that a person works 40 hours per week for 50 weeks a year and socks away what the government is already taking from them: 12.4%
This is well within the reach of every single American. All they have to do is work.
But I agree that for many Americans this would be a better overall deal.
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Are you really saying that at 68, people are incapable of work or that nobody will employ them? I'll have to ask my dad about that...
But many of us would like to have the option of stopping work at 68. Some of us will not be able to work 40 hour weeks long before then. I hope I am able, and I don;t see how I won;t be. We are living longer and we have more retirement years to plan for without a significant gains in income for the bottom 80% of Americans over the past thirty years. Current fiscal policies are not designed to change that for the better.
QUOTE(Hobbes @ Jun 6 2006, 06:27 PM)
Yes, let's look at practicality. For everyone not saving for their own retirement, someone else has to bear the burden. The more people rely on SS, the bigger that burden is. Then factor in that this burden is going to absolutely balloon as baby boomers retire, and that the government has squandered every single penny that was supposedly set aside to cover this.
Also, why aren't savings predictable or reliable? Or, perhaps even more importantly considering the above, why aren't savings more predictable and reliable than the government's squandering of the funds supposedly filling the trust fund? Any time anyone saves 1 single penny, they have demonstrated more predictable and reliable savings than the government has. Well, to be honest, it has been incredibly predictable and reliable...they have squandered every single penny, and they have done so in an absolutely predictable and reliable fashion. Any individual savings plan would beat that record.
I'm on board for a lot of this. But I still say that we fail to address the insurance aspects of Social Security and Medicare. The government is more to blame for this than Social Security itself. On that I will infer some agreement on this point.
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[Hobbes again and the rest of the snippets are his]
To assume that the burden of SS taxes to make up the lack of funding in the trust fund won't be completely onerous and have a highly negative impact on the economy is far more pie-in-the-sky. This will then start a vicious cycle, with even more people unable to afford their own retirement while simultaneously forcing the program to cut back on benefits due to lack of funding. Both of these will create a spending deficit, causing an economic downturn, putting even less money in government coffers, causing other program cutbacks and larger tax rates, thereby compounding the above cycle. What about this scenario is desirable?
I agree entirely, but I blame not social security but the government spending beyond its means in the 1980s and 2000s to place this unfair and cruel burden on future Americans. We can fix Social Security or create a better program for people coming into the workforce today. But for me and people older, SS is the best bad deal I have coming and the government borrowed that money and they will have to pay it back, with interest. This is alas, a very undesirable scenario, but instead of trying to prepare for the shortfalls this decade while we still could, we invested heavily in tax cuts. Again, a clear liberal/conservative divide on what that has meant for federal revenues.
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Further, to assume that others have enough to both pay for their own retirement while also covering for those who fail to do so is also pie-in-the-sky...particularly as baby boomers retire and place an increased load on the system.
I agree again, This is why Social Security has been effective because it has helped improve the lifestyle of retirees while also freeing their children of much of the burdens of supporting them. This has created opportunities for saving that my have been lost.
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How do you pay for it all? Consider that placing an excess burden on the 'haves' means that less is being invested and spent by them, creating a lowered economy, therefore meaning fewer, lower-paying jobs for the 'have-nots', and starting another vicious cycle. Further consider that the inevitable solution to the looming SS funding crisis is going to be less benefits--there just isn't any other feasible solution. That's not good for any of the parties involved. In short, those who are placing their faith in the government on this issue are going to find that trust to be gravely misplaced.
I think one of the biggest liberal/conservative divides is over income redistribution. IMHO capitalism is the best system but it naturally creates a type of feudal economy not far from what Marx described in his writings. To keep a strong middle class and a just society, I believe that the tax system should place a higher burden on the rich than the poor. Not an extremely onerous one but one that provides this effect. Chief among these taxes should be an estate tax. While those working poor are handing over 12% of every dollar they earn, multi-millionaire trust funders should be handing over something for unearned income to keep the system working.
I do think we inherently agree on what assuming things from the government will mean for the average American. And it ain;t good.
Edit: Fixed your quotes Eeyore. -AMLord