First I probably
have to make it clear that I believe Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was one of the worst, most ruthless and amoral human beings alive. No one is sorry to see him gone. But that is just the point:
no one is sorry to see him gone, least of all the Iraqi insurgents or even al-Qaeda itself...
Does this military victory indicate a turning point in the war? I have to ask how we're defining "victory" here. Let's look at a bit of the background. In
June, 2002, according to NBC, US intelligence revealed that Zarqawi and members of al-Qaeda had set up a weapons lab at Kirma, in northern Iraq. The Pentagon drafted plans to attack the camp with missiles and air strikes and sent it to the White House, where the plan died in the National Security Council.
Four months later, about the time the White House was selling its Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq resolution to Congress, intelligence showed Zarqawi was planning to use ricin in terrorist attacks in Europe and the Pentagon again drew up a strike plan. The White House killed it again. According to Roger Cressy, "People were more obsessed with developing the coalition to overthrow Saddam than to execute the president's policy of pre-emption against terrorists."
Three months after the second fumble of the political football, in January 2003, police in London arrested six terror suspects and discovered a ricin lab connected to the camp in Iraq. The Pentagon drew up a
third attack plan, and the NSC killed it yet again.
According to NBC's Pentagon correspondent, Jim Miklaszewski:
QUOTE
Military officials insist their case for attacking Zarqawi’s operation was airtight, but the administration feared destroying the terrorist camp in Iraq could undercut its case for war against Saddam.
While Zarqawi was responsible for some 700 deaths since the Bush administration let him slip through its fingers three times, the most touted terrorist in Iraq was no longer much of a threat three years on. Early last April, the London
Times reported that Zarqawi may have been forced to surrender his leadership. Huthayfah Azzam (the son of Abdullah Azzam, Zarqawi’s former mentor) reported that Zarqawi was stripped of his political duties in mid-March.
Last summer, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's second-in-command, sent Zarqawi a letter (which was intercepted by the US) warning him to change his tactics. According to Azzam, he was also accused of "creating an independent group" in Iraq, "making political mistakes", and hijacking the Iraqi insurgency for his own cause. In November of last year, Zarqawi was denounced for the suicide bomb attacks he orchestrated against hotels in Amman. He was publicly disowned by members of his family and members of influential Arab tribes.
In January, Zarqawi's "al-Qaeda in Iraq" joined five other insurgent groups to form the "Mujahidin Shura Council". Since then, "al-Qaeda in Iraq" has stopped issuing its own statements. According to the
Times article:
QUOTE
Now the council appears to have demoted al-Zarqawi and replaced him with a relative unknown, Abdullah bin Rashid al-Baghdadi. ...
Certainly today al-Zarqawi is no longer regarded by the authorities in Baghdad as the main threat to the country's stability. "Al-Zarqawi is finished," said Bayan Jabor, the Iraqi Interior Minister, last week. "He has only a few supporters left in (the western city of) Ramadi."
Hardly sounds like the "charismatic leader" some would have us swallow, eh? And, since April, things only seem to have gone downhill for him. Two days ago - the day Zarqawi was killed, in fact - the military news site,
StrategyPage, reported that the relationship between Zarqawi and "mainline al-Qaeda" was continuing to deteriorate. They reported that "al Qaeda leaders have been trying to downplay anti-Iranian and anti-Shia rhetoric, and have been strongly discouraging attacks on civilians", but that Zarqawi had persisted in attacking the Shia-dominated government in Iraq, as well as attacking Iran in his recent messages, and that he had "almost totally distanced himself from the central leadership".
StrategyPage concludes:
QUOTE
Given that Zarqawi has become a loose cannon and that his actions are handicapping Al Qaeda's efforts, it seems reasonable to expect that an accident may befall him at some point in the near future. If handled right it can be made to look like he went out in a blaze of glory fighting American troops or that he was foully murdered. Either way, al Qaeda gets rid of a problem and gains another "martyr."
Hours later, he was dead.
Today's London
Times reports that Zarqawi was "betrayed by members of his own terrorist organisation" and Nouri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, said the $25 million bounty on his head would be paid. Quite a windfall for a bunch of Sunni insurgents!
This was
not, as Bush and Blair have described it, a "blow to al-Qaeda". We did them a
favor. As I stated at the top, no one is mourning the loss of Zarqawi - and that includes the leadership of al-Qaeda, the Sunni insurgents in Iraq, and the mullahs in Iran. This "victory"
could mark a turning point, I suppose - but for whom?
Does this change your view on whether the US is winning or losing in Iraq? Let's see... we let Zarqawi go three times for purely political reasons while he was a threat (and at the cost of many lives), waited until he was relatively harmless, then paid terrorists $25 million for the honor of doing their dirty work for them - to the delight of radical Islamists in Iran. Sounds like winning to me.