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Full Version: North Korea Preparing For Long-Range Missile Test?
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Victoria Silverwolf
Here's the story:

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North Korea loaded booster rockets onto a launch pad and moved about 10 fuel tanks to a launch site in preparation to test-fire a long-range missile that could reach as far as the U.S. mainland, a newspaper reported Saturday.

. . .

A U.S. government official said Friday that a test of the Taepodong-2 long-range missile may be imminent. The Washington official agreed to speak but only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters Friday that any missile launch by the North Koreans would be a provocation and would violate their 1999 moratorium on long-range missile tests.


Here is some further analysis:

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North Korea’s steps toward test-firing an intercontinental missile are bringing sudden attention to the most-neglected member of President Bush’s “axis of evil.” The test could jeopardize disarmament talks and create a new nuclear crisis in the region.

The United States on Friday warned North Korea against testing such a missile, saying it would be a “provocative act.”

While the Bush administration has focused most of its recent attention on Iran’s nuclear programs, many arms professionals insist the North Koreans pose a more immediate challenge.

. . .

Long-range missile tests “would force the Bush administration to take a much more robust stand against North Korea,” said Kurt Campbell, who was deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and Pacific affairs during the Clinton administration. “It basically creates the kinds of anxieties that many in the region want to avoid.”

“Obviously, we’re pretty tapped out in terms of our military capabilities,” Campbell said. “Basically, Iraq takes all of the oxygen out of the room. There’s a little oxygen left in the cloak closet for Iran, and very little for anything else.”


There are several possible questions for debate with news like this. Let's start with three.

1. With this new development, how great of a threat is North Korea, particularly compared to Iran?

2. How should the free world respond if North Korea tests a long-range missile?

3. If conditions deteriorate, do the United States and its allies have the capability to deal with North Korea and Iran at the same time as the situation in Iraq?

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moif
QUOTE
1. With this new development, how great of a threat is North Korea, particularly compared to Iran?
By itself, I don't believe North Korea is really much of a threat to any one but itself... as an exporter of military technology though I believe this is a grave and serious development that, if allowed to continue, will lead to another stalemate between the west and the Islamic powers, especially Iran.

Basically, what we are witness to here is an evil and aggressive ideology, gradually but steadily, establishing the means to threaten all of Europe with nuclear attack at its whim and there is nothing we can do to stop it short of the pre-emptive attack which, in our infinate wisdom we have come to regard as evil.

We have faced this sort of threat before, but never from a religiously motivated power. The Soviet Union, no matter how aggressive and greedy for conquest it was, was never without reason. The same cannot be said for Islam which is an ideology based on superstition and mumbo jumbo.


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2. How should the free world respond if North Korea tests a long-range missile?
We should stop fiddling about with political correctness and identify the launch as a serious threat to democracy, then if the launch goes ahead anyway, openly declare it the act of aggression it really is, shoot it down, or at least use it as target practice for anti missile defence systems.


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3. If conditions deteriorate, do the United States and its allies have the capability to deal with North Korea and Iran at the same time as the situation in Iraq?
Yes, but we don't have the will to do it.

If by no other means, the United States and its allies should launch a nuclear attack against the North Korean missile site and reiterate the lesson of Dresden, Tokyo, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
That strength does not lie in weapons, but in the will to use them.

Let there be no mistake here. If we don't have the will to use these weapons to defend ourself, then our enemies, whom I have no doubt, do have that will, will dismantle our democratic freedoms. The United States is the foremost democratic power on the planet and as such has the moral responsibility to do what it must to protect democracy. Its democratic allies have the moral obligation to support it in this. This is not 'imperialism', 'colonialism' nor 'hegemony', but simple survival.


Mrs. Pigpen
1. With this new development, how great of a threat is North Korea, particularly compared to Iran?

If the DPRK has this capability, Iran likely does too. They simply don't advertise as much. Remember they also fired a Taepodong 1 missile over Japan in 1998.

Like nukes, Kim doesn’t intend to use this weapon himself, he wishes to exploit his capabilities for some gain. He has reason to believe this to be the case, as this tactic has proved successful again and again. Furthermore, North Korea has sold just about everything it has ever developed, including ballistic missiles. How much would a few lumps of plutonium bring in the international black market? A lot, with plenty left over for further, more comprehensive and sophisticated weapons development.


2. How should the free world respond if North Korea tests a long-range missile?

What they have refused to do until now, and will still refuse to do. Impose real sanctions. Thus far Kim Jong Il has promised that sanctions would mean war. Let's see if he means it. Japan is planning on doing something that might be helpful. I'd say it's about damn time. If the North does carry out the test, it will be in violation of an agreement Japan reached with North Korea in 2002.

Turn up the heat. Cut off cash sent to the DPRK from Japan. End South Korean investment in the north, seal off aid and fuel from China, intercept outbound North Korean ships to inspect for weapons.

3. If conditions deteriorate, do the United States and its allies have the capability to deal with North Korea and Iran at the same time as the situation in Iraq?

A military confrontation would be disastrous. I'd say it isn't an option unless they outright attack. Let's put it this way, South Korea is not prepared economically to even absorb North Korea, completely peacefully, at this point. Iraq is a booming metropolis by comparison to the DPRK. The Chinese don't want war because they fear millions of refugees spilling over the borders. Something else to consider: if the regime collapses, there would be a scramble for the weapons and loose nuclear material....that doesn't even address the real drawbacks...
lederuvdapac
1. With this new development, how great of a threat is North Korea, particularly compared to Iran?

The threat is definately comparable to that of Iran but as Iran is not only a fundamentalist fascist dictatorship, it is also a terrorist-supporter. This in my mind makes Iran more threatening along with the fact that the Middle East is a lot more instable than East Asia. North Korea is surrounded by great powers in Russia, China, and Japan. This puts them in a pretty pickle. They don't want to sit at the little kid's table any more and they believe that showing off their nuclear capabilities will allow this to occur. Having something to prove is what makes NKorea dangerous.

2. How should the free world respond if North Korea tests a long-range missile?

Like i said before, NKorea is trying to show off their power. The best thing the free world can do is simply ignore them. The attention they get from the free world with testing their capabilities only entices them to continue testing more. If we appear as if we are ignoring them (with obviously keeping close tabs) then it diminshes their power. We should act as if it really is insignificant. NKorea has what? 5-10 nuclear warheads? The US has 1000 times that many. Any attack by NKorea on an allied country would be suicide by cop and we should treat them like such.

The only real concern that the free world should have is nuclear technology falling into the wrong hands. THAT is the real problem that I can foresee because NKorea as a state is not a real threat...but one man or one group with the money and the means to use a nuclear weapon with no trace of origin is.

3. If conditions deteriorate, do the United States and its allies have the capability to deal with North Korea and Iran at the same time as the situation in Iraq?

If NKorea provokes attack, then it wouldnt so much be a ground invasion as it would be tactical nuclear strikes. NKorea knows that they have no chance in a full scale war with the United States, so they will be forced into desperate measures. The only way to prevent that would be to strike at their nuclear capabilities first and just wait till they crumble.
Ted
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There are several possible questions for debate with news like this. Let's start with three.

1. With this new development, how great of a threat is North Korea, particularly compared to Iran?
They have always been a greater threat since they have nukes now and the long range missiles to deliver them to more than half the US.

We should be very concerned. This of course is exactly the situation our missile defense system, now in early stages of deployment , is meant to counter. Rouge nation with small number if missiles and warheads.

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2. How should the free world respond if North Korea tests a long-range missile?
Tie any future aid to not doing same.



Tie future economic aid to not going forward with missile program

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3. If conditions deteriorate, do the United States and its allies have the capability to deal with North Korea and Iran at the same time as the situation in Iraq?


We, IMO don’t need to jump the gun here if we can deal with the potential launch of a missile at the US. Our Pacific forces are more than capable of dealing with NK if they launce a nuclear attack. One or two of out Trident or Seawolf subs could literally destroy the entire country in less than an hour. If we . If we have to repel a ground assault we have a problem. But then we should assume the UN minght actually do something???? Naaa
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