Curiously perhaps, I find areas of agreement with almost everyone posting so far - until, of course, we get to
bucket's more than usually confrontational post, but I'll (eventually) get back to that...
QUOTE(greekee @ Jul 16 2006, 01:51 PM)

Could and should are two different things.
The US cannot currently invade either country. Quite simply put, there aren't even enough spare troops to send to the US-Mexico border, much less invade yet another country that is at best a perifery to what is happening in Israel and Lebanon.
One thing to consider, though, is that invasion is not the only option. Were the US to get involved in further military action in the Middle East, at least at the moment, it would most likely either involve nuclear weapons or an extended air war to destroy the infrastructure - power plants, bridges, ports, water and irrigation lines, sewage systems, hospitals, schools - of the targeted countries. Both of these
are military options - and if you think this administration is beyond such extreme options, you are more "hopeful" about lessons learned than I am.
Overall, I agree with your assessments of both Iran and Syria. Both are almost as riddled with corruption, brutality, cronyism, nihilism, and sheer incompetence as the US - and their obsession with the maintenance of power and privilege for a few is almost as severe as our own. The only real difference between us and them is that neither Syria nor Iran have the war machinery that we do. In short, they are not - and never have been - a threat to global or even regional stability. Sadly, the same cannot be said for the US. And that's what worries me.
It also worries me that, because Iran and Syria
aren't much of a threat, this administration might think that strikes on them would be another "cakewalk" - without considering countries that may be behind Syria and Iran, which include not only Russia and China, but our good buddies in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan - and Egypt and Jordan and the Emirates and Kuwait and Turkey. We forget how unpopular the US has become
everywhere in the past five years - and further adventures in the Middle East could easily turn into
Murder on the Orient Express.
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QUOTE(Bikerdad @ Jul 16 2006, 02:20 PM)

Are Israel and its American supporters trying to force the US to escalate its military activity in the Middle East to include Syria and Iran?
No, and certainly not in the sense that your post implies, that the Israeli's are orchestrating events in order to get the US militarily involved.
Really? I think a pretty good case could be made - without going too far out on a conspiratorial limb. The neoconservative position has essentially become Zionist, which statements like Kristol's "This is our war, too" tend to reinforce - not to mention the fact that such neocons as Paul Wolfowitz have characterized the label "neocon" as being innately anti-Semitic (the neocon word for anti-Zionist). It is hardly news that Iran has long been a target of the current administration - let's not forget the All-Stars of Evil from the 2002 State of the Union - and long been considered an "enemy of Israel". Both Zionists in Israel and neoconservatives in the Bush administration have been jonesing for an attack on Iran for a generation.
It may not be Israel and its American supporters working
in tandem to involve the US in taking on Iran and/or Syria, but it would certainly serve the ends of each. The fact is that, since Bush took office, more so than under any other administration so far, Israeli foreign policy has
become American foreign policy. "Pre-emptive war"? In the
Middle East? That's not American policy - never has been. And it's not "9/11 changed everything" policy either. It's
Israeli policy.
As to "orchestrating" events, well we have to ask
how these hostilities began.
Ever since Hamas defeated the Fatah movement in the Palestinian election, there has been a state of virtual war. On June 9, a little over a week after Haniyeh was sworn in, eight Palestinian civilians were killed in Gaza during a day of routine Israeli shelling (which reached over a thousand shells per week by the end of the month) - and, as a result, Hamas called off its sixteen-month-old truce. Four days later, Israel killed eleven Palestinians, including nine civilians, in a missile strike on a suspect van.
The following week, Palestinian militants attacked an Israeli army post, killing two soldiers and capturing a third.
Israel responded by bombing bridges and power plants, attacking dozens of targets in the Gaza Strip, including the Interior Ministry offices of the government, detaining a third of the Palestinian cabinet and two dozen Hamas legislators, killing dozens of Palestinians in air raids, buzzing the Syrian President's palace, and firing a missile at the Palestinian Prime Minister's office.
The Economist has suggested that Israel had been planning the kidnapping of the Palestinian cabinet and Hamas lawmakers and used the capture of an Israeli soldier as an excuse.
If nothing else, it should be the consensus of most sentient beings that Israel, to say the least, overreacted. Was that an accident of some sort? Was it hysteria? Was it gross miscalculation? Or was it "orchestrated"?
Two weeks after Israel initiated hostilities in Gaza, Hezbollah guerillas attacked two Humvees on the Lebanon/Israeli border, killing eight Israeli soldiers and capturing two.*
Israel has responded to the attack on ten soldiers by destroying bridges and civilian infrastructure in southern Lebanon, bombing the international airport in Beirut, the main Beirut-Damascus highway, television and radio stations, two Lebanese military air bases, a power plant's fuel storage south of Beirut, and a convoy of villagers that the Israeli military had told to evacuate, and by imposing an air, land and naval blockade on Lebanon. So far, over 140 Lebanese civilians have been killed.
This reaction, again, should be seen as, at least, disproportionate. Is such escalation - with its attendant threats to Iran and Syria - a further accident? More hysteria? Another miscalculation? Or more "orchestration" of the conflict?
QUOTE(Bikerdad @ Jul 16 2006, 02:20 PM)

Should the US expand its war effort to include even more countries - including more powerful ones with more powerful allies, such as Iran?
Should we? Not yet. At this moment, the direct threat to American interests is not yet sufficient, and the indirect threat (i.e. the threat to Israel, who is simply the canary in the coal mine) is of such a level that Israel can handle it easily themselves if they choose to do so.
I'm with you entirely here. Well, I'm not so sure about the canary in the coal mine bit. That suggests that Israel is our proxy. Are they? Or are we their proxy? Isn't that why we're in Iraq? After all, Saddam Hussein's
only link to international terror was the payments made to surviving family members of Palestinian suicide bombers.
QUOTE(Bikerdad @ Jul 16 2006, 02:20 PM)

Would such a war be winnable - and, if so, how?
Yes. If our intention is to simply eliminate a threat to us, then the war is very easily winnable. If we also determine to rebuild the countries that we bomb flat, 'twould be much more challenging. As for the "powerful allies", China is highly unlikely to get more than peripherally involved, as the risk to their economy is far to great. Russia is also unlikely to get seriously involved, for some of the same reasons, along with their current military weakness. Aside from their nuclear weapons, Russia has zero capacity to project meaningful military power.
Sure, it's unlikely that either China or Russia would respond
militarily (or, at the very least, I doubt either would launch the first nuke), but "powerful allies" can do a lot more than raise armies and send planes. The greatest threat - especially from China - is economic. The members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (notably Russia, China, and Kazakhstan - with the pending membership of Pakistan and Iran), as an alliance, could wreak incredible havoc with the dollar, among much else, without having to fire a single missile. With our military, financial, and good will resources as depleted as they are at the moment, it would not take much for the US to die the death of a thousand cuts. If, for example, foreign countries stopped buying American debt, interest rates would rise, inflation would skyrocket, the dollar and long-term bond prices would plummet, and financial firms would collapse. If OPEC decided to pitch the petrodollar in favor of the European bourse, the same. Or if China alone decided to dump the dollar, even worse.
The allies of Iran may not project much meaningful
military power - but do they have to? Seriously, it may not take much to find out just what kind of "superpower" we really are, especially economically, when we have such poor faith with so much of the world at the moment. If we're to remain this "superpower", maybe it's about time we started being
super - and stopped tilting at windmills.
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QUOTE(greekee @ Jul 16 2006, 07:12 PM)

Let us also beware the 'quick fix' mentality that seems to drive everything these days. The fact of the matter is that there are always disagreements between nations, and they are not all the crisis that CNN and FOX make them into. ...
The bottom line is that Iran wants to do something we don't want them to do. So what? We are still talking after all, and, lets face it, the situation has not reached a point that can be determined a real crisis that REQUIRES military force to dissuade our adversaries. Let them have their toy, it will not give them the security they think it will .... and the oil will run dry.
QUOTE(lederuvdapac @ Jul 16 2006, 09:08 PM)

greeke, That is an excellent foreign policy analysis that I am inclined to agree with except for one overlooked fact. The one major danger of Iran gaining nuclear technology is that those plans will fall into the hands of terrorist organizations. Either a warhead or just the materials necessary handed to single terrorist cell could claim the lives of millions in the US or Europe. This act can be committed and Iran would sit back and say it had nothing to do with it. If we were dealing with two rational state actors (such as the USSR could be considered) then your points would be accurate, but unfortunately Iran and Syria are not.
Overall, I agree with
greekee's take on both North Korea and Iran, though I've seen no convincing evidence that the latter
does want nuclear weapons. Even if Iran
did want nuclear weapons -
and had the capacity to build them -
and eventually succeeded in doing so - can you imagine what would happen if they
did allow them to fall into the hands of a "terrorist organization"? Given American history, especially recent American history, do you seriously think the US would hesitate to retaliate against Iran in the event of
any class of nuclear attack
anywhere by
anyone? And do you think the Iranians are unaware of that fact? Please.
Oh, by the way, I happened to have lived through the peak of the Cold War - through the erection of the Berlin Wall, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the Prague Spring. I recall repeated political ads on TV featuring Nikita Kruschev banging his shoe on the table at the UN with his "WE WILL BURY YOU!" quote supered in tabloid caps. Trust me, the Soviet Union was hardly portrayed as a "rational state actor" at the time. Interestingly, there's a lot of similarity between the anti-Soviet propaganda of the late fifties/early sixties and the more insidious anti-Arab propaganda of today - well, of the past forty years.
QUOTE(lederuvdapac @ Jul 16 2006, 09:08 PM)

The US has no real interest at this time in entering into a conflict with Iran and Syria. It certainly is not consistent with Bush's current change in policy.
I must have missed this "change in policy". What are you talking about? Are we now engaged in a kinder, gentler war on terror or Islamic fundamentalism or enemies of Israel or whatever it's supposed to be this week?
QUOTE(lederuvdapac @ Jul 16 2006, 09:08 PM)

I can't speak for Israel but it doesn't seem to be in its interest either to enter into a military conflict with Iran and Syria. That would most definately spill into the entire Middle East which is a war Israel wouldn't want.
Why not? Israel has
long sought the elimination of every Middle Eastern government that is not ruled by an American puppet friendly to Israel. If they thought a military campaign against Syria and Iran could succeed, they'd be all over it like ugly on a warthog. Of course, such a campaign would almost certainly require the support and participation of the US...
QUOTE(lederuvdapac @ Jul 16 2006, 09:08 PM)

Should the US expand its war effort to include even more countries - including more powerful ones with more powerful allies, such as Iran?
To put it simply, no. I think greeke's analysis from a Cold War perspective may be best for North Korea but Iran should be handled more delicately because nuclear technology falling into the hands of terrorists is the last thing we want.
I seriously wouldn't lose any sleep over Iran supplying them terr'ists with nukes. Seriously.
QUOTE(lederuvdapac @ Jul 16 2006, 09:08 PM)

Would such a war be winnable - and, if so, how?
The war is winnable if it came to blows in the Middle East. The peace however, is not.
And there I must agree with you. Well, with your final sentence, anyway. What's your "if so, how?" response to the "winnable" part?
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And now we get to
bucket. I don't know what it is, but for some reason I seem to have the unintential knack of drawing her fire over the most specious sidetracks.
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

Paul Craig Roberts seems like a desperate source for commentary and insight into this conflict.
Why's that? What's so desperate about considering the opinions of "paleocons" like Roberts or John Dean or Pat Buchanan? Are they just unfashionable these days or what?
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

I also find his analysis illogical and predictably so.
Do you find the opinions of
all traditional conservatives from Robert Taft to Dwight Eisenhower to Barry Goldwater predictably illogical or just Roberts in particular? Do you have any foundation for Roberts' apparent history of a logic defecit? Or the fallacious reasoning of the entire pre-Reagan conservative movement? Or is this just an extraneous ad hominem?
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

The current admin’s objectives in the ME are obviously not guided by the sole objective to "eliminate every Middle Eastern government that is not ruled by an American puppet friendly to Israel" and as proof of this inaccuracy I offer Egypt, KSA, Pakistan, Jordan...
I'm not sure what your point is here. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Jordan, and, I might add, Lebanon - and, of course, Afghanistan and Iraq -
are essentially American puppets friendly to Israel. But no one is claiming that our objectives in the Middle East are
solely guided by Israel's foreign policy (though, come to think of it, I can't think of much else that is dictating our policy at the moment). The question is whether or not today - Monday, July 7, 2005 - we are being encouraged by the likes of Kristol and the right-wing blogoshpere (and, increasingly, the mainstream media) to enter into a military conflict with Syria and/or Iran as an ally of Israel. As the "illogical" Roberts put it:
QUOTE
The war began when Bush's neoconservative government invaded Afghanistan and Iraq under the pretense of "fighting terrorism." Neither front has gone well for America. The Israelis, seeing the growing domestic opposition to Bush's wars of choice, concluded that they are in danger of losing America's military intervention in behalf of their Middle East interests. Israel decided to force the issue. ...
Israel's over-reactions are calculated to start a wider war.
And that's really the question here.
Are Israel's over-reactions calculated to start a wider war as part of their (and the neocon's) broad strategy for the future of the Middle East? Or are they reacting appropriately and effectively to a totally unwarranted retaliation in which the US should have no part?
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

I also highly question your attempt to fuse Radical Islamism, as Bill Kristol discusses in the quote you selected, to what Roberts refers to as being unfriendly to Israel. Not being nice to Israel is not the one and only threat America (and many other Western nations) are concerned with when it comes to Radical Islamism.
I'm not trying to fuse anything with anything. Roberts referred to the decade-old neoconservative strategy of targeting Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria. I was merely pointing out that that strategy is alive and well and living in the
Weekly Standard. Is Kristol still advocating the need to take out Syria and Iran or has he changed his tune since the mid-nineties?
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

I would have thought after 9/11, Spain, London, Jordan, KSA, India, Turkey, and the many, many other displays of Radical Islamism that have been made throughout the world this was no longer something I, or anyone else, still needed to detail. I have to guess that Robert's misunderstanding, along with your own, of what this threat means and our desires to contain them is intentional.
It's no misunderstanding. Well, apart from your own. Kristol's position has not changed in ten years. The September 11 attack did nothing more than give him - and the neocons in the Bush administration - a handy excuse to execute what they'd been planning for a decade or more. Attacking Syria and Iran would not be part of the "war on terror", it would be part of their ongoing agenda. The "war on terror"
could provide the justification for the long-anticipated attack on Syria and Iran, but poor little innocent Israel seems to be providing an even better excuse. And much of the American media seems to be buying - and promoting - it.
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

QUOTE(Wertz)
John Podhoretz endorsed this position claiming that "The prime mover behind the terrorist groups who have started this war is a non-Arab state, Iran, which wasn't involved in any of Israel's previous wars." And Michael Ledeen has described Israel's escalation of hostilities as "an opportunity waiting to be seized"
And my suspicions of your intentions with this debate only increase. Why are you highlighting the ethnicity of Iranians? Being Arab is not the sole indicator and worth of one's views, position and acceptance of power on the international stage.
I'm not highlighting the ethnicity of Iranians, John Podhoretz is. And I suspect he's doing so for the same reasons you are: to argue that this is not just an Arab-Israeli conflict - and that Iran is, therefore, fair game. The reason I quoted him at all (indeed, the reason I quoted Kristol, Podhoretz,
and Ledeen) was to demonstrate that there is a consensus among neoconservatives that we shoud be taking military action against Iran. If it makes you feel any better, I would happily amend my citiation to this:
QUOTE
John Podhoretz endorsed this position claiming that "The prime mover behind the terrorist groups who have started this war is... Iran."
That's the only point I intended to highlight. Neocons want to attack Iran. Your exegesis on "What It Means to Be a Radical Islamist" is simply not salient. If we were to now launch an attack on Iran or Syria, it would not be because they are "Radical Islamists"
per se, it would be because they are allegedly attacking the defenseless victim Israel via Hezbollah and Hamas. This is not about the "war on terror", this is about the war that Israel is starting in the Middle East.
Having said that, you no doubt rankled when I referred to "anti-Arab propaganda" in replying to
greekee and
leder above. For your benefit, I should probably call anti-Arab propaganda "anti-anti-Zionist propaganda". But in the American popular consciousness - and certainly the American media - the two mean roughly the same thing. Of course, this ignores the fact that many good Americans - and many good Jews - are also anti-Zionist. But when it comes to stereotyping (and, more importantly, war-mongering) such things are irrelvancies.
Declaring an unspecified "war on Radical Islam", as you seem to believe Kristol is doing, is very like declaring the unspecified "war on terror". Clearly, there are more specific targets in both cases. In relation to the United States, our conflict with "Radical Islam" primarily exists
because of our support for Israel and, to a lesser extent, our presence in Saudi Arabia. Some "Radical Islamists" specifically oppose the state of Israel and nearly all "Radical Islamists" view Israel with hostility, regardless of their ethnicity. Osama bin Laden (remember him?) believes that opposition to Zionism is necessary due to a historical conflict between Muslims and Jews - and he considers there to be a Jewish/American alliance against Islam. Our involvement in both the "war on terror" and our potential involvement in Israel's escalating war in the Middle East are both due to our relationship with Israel.
Sure, "Radical Islam" raises a number of issues beyond the Arab world, most particularly within the Persian world, but we are hardly contemplating bombing Iran because Islamic fundamentalists make women wear burkas or execute homosexuals or get their knickers in a twist over cartoons. We are waging war against "terror" and "Radical Islam" because of our support for Israel. Regardless of who brought the fight to whom, Israel is at the core of
all of our current militarism - and, you are right, it doesn't matter whether the opponents of Zionism are Arabic or Persian or participants at America's Debate.
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

This is about the legitimacy of the Radical Islamism's political power, views and actions in our world. Is Hezbollah a legitimate source... Are their actions legitimate... Hezbollah's power... Who is Hezbollah... Does Hezbollah hold the legitimate right...
I'm not talking about Hezbollah's legitimacy or power - or the legitimacy or power of Hamas (though I wonder if you are raising similar questions in relation to
their legitimacy and power) - nor, for that matter, are Kristol, Podhoretz, and co. I'm discussing
America's legitimacy and power. Do we have a case for attacking Syria and Iran?
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

QUOTE(Wertz)
Are Israel and its American supporters trying to force the US to escalate its military activity in the Middle East to include Syria and Iran?
If the true target and extension of the US policy in the Middle East is as the president proposes a "Global War on Terror" then I fail to see how Iran and Syria are not included.
Well, that's the point of this debate.
Would a military attack on Syria and/or Iran arising from Israel's hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon be an extension of the "Global War on Terror" - or would this be an even flimsier excuse for escalating our military actions in the Middle East?
QUOTE(bucket @ Jul 17 2006, 12:05 AM)

I don’t feel such a path has to be forced upon us as I feel the American public does support putting an end to the legitimacy of Radical Islamism. What I don’t think is true is that the American public supports more military action to achieve this goal and I doubt they would be "forced" to reconsider this by anyone other than the Radical Islamists themselves.
And you think the American public is well-enough-informed to know the difference between a legitimate threat from Syria or Iran and White House propaganda combined with Israeli propaganda promulgated through the complicit American press? I don't even see that level of acumen
here - and we seem to be among some of the best-informed people in the country.
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To answer my own questions:
Are Israel and its American supporters trying to force the US to escalate its military activity in the Middle East to include Syria and Iran?Yes.
Should the US expand its war effort to include even more countries - including more powerful ones with more powerful allies, such as Iran?No.
Would such a war be winnable - and, if so, how?No. It would be lunacy for the current administration to expand their already failed war effort on any account, never mind one so spurious as supporting unwarranted hostilities initiated by a country that is not remotely interested in political or diplomatic solutions.
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*The reasons are as yet unclear. As prisoner exchanges have been mooted by Hezbollah, it may be that they are pursuing exchange agreements from 2004, which Hezbollah claims were not fully honored by Israel. Or it may be in reaction to the discovery of Israeli death squads last month that have been responsible for a series of killings of Hezbollah militants in Lebanon over the past seven years.