But how can we resolve this issue? What can be done so that Hezbollah is no longer a regional threat and an instrument of terror and Muslims in the region no longer feel justified to seek and support resistance from the state of Israel? The first task in any negotiations is to understand what each party wants. So we must ask ourselves: what does Hezbollah want?
According to the Australian government (to use a non-US
source) :
QUOTE
Hezbollah is a radical Iranian-backed Lebanese Islamic Shiite group sometimes referred to by its English name, the 'Party of God'. It was founded in 1982 in response to the invasion of Lebanon by Israel that same year, having subsumed members of the 1980s coalition of groups known collectively as Islamic Jihad.
It has remained a powerful force ever since, with its established political wing holding seats in the Lebanese Parliament and its military wing gaining popular support as a de facto security force in southern Lebanon. The political wing operates welfare programmes which some say are better than those offered by the State.(2)
Amongst its stated objectives are the establishment of a Shiite theocracy in Lebanon, the destruction of Israel and the elimination of Western influences from the region. Its militant core is said to comprise some 300-500 fighters, although there are thousands of active supporters. Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is the current leader.
So Hezbollah wants:
1. a Shiite theocracy in Lebanon.
2. the destruction of Israel
3. elimination of Western influences in the Middle East.
Nasrallah said in an interview (with the Washington Post) in 1999 that:
"Three things comprise our minimal demand: an [Israeli] withdrawal from South Lebanon and the Western Bqa’ Valley, a withdrawal from the Golan, and the return of the Palestinian refugees. "
Two of those three objectives were accomplished (before this latest escalation after the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers). The third could be a plank to use.
However, in that same interview, Nasrallah stated:
QUOTE
"Everybody talks nowadays about accepting the reality and coexistence, or any other form of settlement with Israel." However, he views "realism in a different way". To him, "Israel is an illegal usurper entity, which is based on falsehood, massacres, and illusions, and there is no chance for its survival."[56]
Source: wikipediaNasrallah's other statements:
QUOTE(October 2002)
if they all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide.
QUOTE(Hezbollah statement 1992)
"It is an open war until the elimination of Israel and until the death of the last Jew on earth."
QUOTE(January 2006)
"We do not recognise the Israeli enemy, nor his right to be our neighbour, nor to stay (on the land), nor his ownership of any inch of land. Our principles are clear: Palestine is a land of Waqf, which cannot be given up."
Oh wait, that one was a Hamas election advertisement.
QUOTE(Nasrallah)
"There is no solution to the conflict in this region except with the disappearance of Israel."
Little choice for a defiant IsraelI guess we can stop guessing, let's check out
Hizbollah's website. Nasrallah has a very frank interview on that website. He talks openly about expected more casualties on his side.
QUOTE(Interview with Nasrallah @ available from Hezbollah homepage)
So, the military operation will begin to decline and to calm down gradually to pave the way for a political settlement. How much time would this take? This depends on developments. When time drags--the north is brought to a halt, northern Israel, excuse me, I apologize, I mean northern occupied Palestine--there are two million Israelis who are either in shelters or outside the area, displaced outside the area. The entire economy in the north is brought to a halt. The factories, trade, tourism, and economic movement are all brought to a halt. The number of the killed and injured on their side could be much less than on our side, but this is natural. This is because they have a huge arsenal. Our arsenal is not for destruction, retaliation, and revenge, but a deterrent arsenal. They have a huge destructive power. There is no exaggeration here.
QUOTE
It is a matter of time now. I rule out that the Israelis can make a military achievement. It is a matter of time. On the one hand, there is our military steadfastness, and on the other there is the political and popular steadfastness. They [the Israelis] are wagering on seeing the countrys political situation break up and weaken, and on seeing a decline in the popular support for the resistance in order to achieve political results. We, on the other hand, are wagering on our steadfastness and that of our people, and on seeing a decline in the Israeli internal support for the military operation and on the pressures on the enemys government, the beginning of which we began to see today.
This conflict is following Nasrallah's plan exactly, even down to sacrificing the children of Lebanon:
QUOTE
Based on the [religious] structure of the country, they [opinion poll teams] believe that if the Shiis begin to leave and desert the resistance, it would be an indication that the other sects will do the same - this is the [religious] structure of the country. The opinion-poll teams were amazed during their visits and meetings. There is strong support for the resistance; there is readiness to remain steadfast and make sacrifices. They listened to many women who said that they are ready to sacrifice their children, to fight, to remain steadfast and patient, and to endure, and that they will not allow the resistance to lose, be humiliated, or be stricken.
Nasrallah lays it bare:
QUOTE
The first issue was the continued occupation of the Shaba farms. In this respect we can take our time. This is a limited piece of land. We do not want to go to war because of the farms, not a war like the one taking place now. The second issue is that of the air and maritime violations, and even the land violations. We can put up with these. Yes, violations of our sovereignty are condemned, but we would not raise hell because of them. However, there are two issues that can stand no postponement. The first is the prisoners issue, for this involves humanitarian suffering. The second is any attack on civilians. I told them on more than one occasion that we are serious about the prisoners issue and that this can only solved through the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers. Of course, I used to make hints in that respect. Of course I would not be expected to tell them on the table I was going to kidnap Israeli soldiers in July. That could not be.
[Bin-Jiddu] You told them that you would kidnap Israeli soldiers?
[Nasrallah] I used to tell them that the prisoners issue, which we must solve, can only be solved through the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers.
[Bin-Jiddu] Clearly?
[Nasrallah] Clearly. Nobody told me: no, you are not allowed to kidnap Israeli soldiers. I was not waiting for such a thing. Even if they told me no you are not allowed [nothing would change]. I am not being defensive. I said that we would kidnap Israeli soldiers in meetings with some of the key political leaders in the country. I do not want to mention names. When the time comes for accountability I will mention names.
4 points: Shaba farms, border incursions, Hezbollah (Palestinian?) prisoners, attacks on civilians.
The main issue is the Lebanese prisoners. Nasrallah specifically mentions that any deal must include Samir al-Qintar "first". This is the guy they want. Here is a little info on him:
The World Should Know What He Did to My FamilyThe only answer Hezbollah will accept is a prisoner swap. Should Israel swap this murdering thug (and others) for a short-lived peace which will certainly be revived over Shaba farms, or attacks on Palestinians, or Israel's very existence?
This question has no easy answers. It may have no answers at all.