Cuban President Fidel Castro Temporarily Gives Brother Power Due to Illness


It may just be his time after all these years...

Questions for Debate:

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?
2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?

1. Well, that depends. If his brother Raul is even more of a hard line communist than Fidel, then things won't change much. He'll run off like Chavez and attempt to forge alliances with Iran, North Korea, and the other anti-US states. But, if he's smart, he'll realize that one can be a pseudo communist country and thrive if one does business with the "great satan" and follow the China model.

2. What should the US do? We should wait and see what direction the Cuban government takes.

Personally, I'd love to see trade with Cuba normalized. They have great beaches and then I could get my favorite Montecristo #2's without sneaking them back from Canada or Europe.

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?

It will mean substantial change. His brother Raul is not much younger but is significantly more pragmatic though he has nowhere near the charisma that Fidel Castro has shown time and time again. It is likely he will attempt to change parts of the system to prepare for any handover that he has to facilitate. I would imagine a gradual drift to a democratic society over the next 20 years with significant economic reform.

2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?
The best thing that the US can do is stay out of the situation. Historically the interference of external powers in such processes has been disastrous. Let Cuba reform itself - only if a humanitarian crisis threatens should anyone attempt to get involved.

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?

Well hopefully the people of Cuba will be able to become free and no longer be held under oppression under a communist system of government.




2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?


I don't think the US should do anything at the time unless humanitarian aid is needed incase the current government collapses.

2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?

The same thing we should have done all along... Open up too trade and let capitalism take it's course. One of the most power tools America has is it's people. Trade and travel will have more impact than any political maneuvering.

1)If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?

I don’t think a lot will change, since his brother is in charge now, unless the people feel they can overtake the brother. And with his reputation for brutality, I kind of doubt that.

2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?

I don’t know much about Raul other than what I have heard through the years, but I can’t imagine he would be all that different than his brother. They joined the party together, fought as guerillas together, believe in the same causes, and Raul manages Castro’s military. And he sounds like a ruthless, mean son of a bee.

Although, if Raul disdains intellectuals, maybe that bodes well for a relationship with the current US administration.

OK, OK, that was a cheap shot, but it's true.

Intellectuals love Castro, who is a brutal mass murdering totalitarian dictator.

OK, OK, that was a cheap shot, but's it's true.

Stock prices of junk dealers are spiking as we speak in anticipation of "normalizing" a brisk trade in salvaged '58 Buick parts.

Cuba was the very first foreign policy hurdle the US encountered, going back to the 1820's. Jefferson and the like wanted to get it under US control and just like the 1960's' 'Russian threat', there was a comparable 'British threat' in the form of the British Fleet. The US has been trying forever to gain political leverage over Cuba and in Castro they encountered a formidable wall. Think about it. The CIA trying to poison his cigars and give him some LSD overdose or whatever...that proves the extent the US was and is willing to go to do harm for their own greater good. Mark that. Their own. If and when Castro's gone, chaos will not ensue lest the US choose to stir the hornets nest as always then claim to be aiding for a greater good...
Btw, Cuba is hardly as bad off as we in the West are coded into believing. Same goes for North Korea.

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?

As pointed out it remains to be seen, would imagine things won’t change much. Real change will come after Fidel’s successor is gone.

2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?

I agree with most, we just need to wait it out unless they become a threat.

Some must see the opportunity on the horizon because contrary to most thought the US is currently trading with Cuba. I never realized this until a few years ago a good friend told me he was going to Cuba with an Agriculture/Food Distribution envoy. Sure enough on his return there he was in a picture standing next to Fidel and as a gift he received two boxes of cigars from his personal collection (with Fidel’s business card). He still hasn’t placed any product in Cuba but some US companies have and continue to do so. The foundation is there so it’s just a matter of timing.

And I completely agree with thetrick, when the moment presents itself open the doors with capitalism and political change will follow.

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?

I'm not an expert on Cuban domestic politics and don't claim to be one. It would seem in the short term, Communism will continue in Cuba under Raul. Eventually, the Castros will fade and so will their outdated political system.


2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?

Nothing. Cuba represents zero threat to the US. There is no "advantage" to be gained by doing anything. Cuba is unworthy of attention except as one of the lone remaining examples of how bad communism is for the people caught under its tyranny. The system will collapse under its own inefficiencies, just as it did in the Soviet states.

That being said, if the situation deteriorates, we should be ready to go in to stabilize it. For example, if there is an internal coup and widespread violence breaks out. This is entirely within the realm of possibility and we should be ready to react to such a situation.

Questions for Debate:

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?

In the short run I don't see much chance for a change in the political situation within Cuba. As long as his brother has the support of the military he should be rather secure in assuming power. In the long run perhaps this will be an opportunity for Cuba to open itself a little more to foreign investment and move away from it's communist leanings.


2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?
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Should the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage? Of course we should. If for no other reason than because we're entering an election cycle and Florida is very important in the next presidential race. What we can do that would be most useful is to normalize relations with Cuba. Easing trade restrictions and travel restrictions can be a vital first step in moving Cuba towards the center politically. With a nice clean slate Post-Castro we can approach the table with less baggage from the last 50 years. With the fall of the Soviet Union Cuba has lost most of it's importance in geopolitics, but it never hurts to be a little friendlier with our neighbors.

1) If Castro is unable to recover from illness and eventually dies, what does this mean for the political situation in Cuba?
Nothing in the short term, I believe. Cuba is an anomaly, sharing illustrious company with a few other repressive regimes and totalitarian holdouts. But I will echo Amlord's opinion that raul will eventually succeed his brother, and life will go on for a time.

2) Could, more importantly should, the United States do anything to use the situation to their advantage if Castro does die?
Although I detest communism in the strongest terms, I am willing to endorse lifting the economic blockade against Cuba and allowing direct travel between the two nations. This will hasten more than anything a transition to a free democracy. Given his history, I don't believe Raul wishes freedom for his people, but he might be powerless to stop the infiltration of capitalism once the proverbial foot gets in the door. It's happened before.....


Since you seem to speak with an air of authority concerning repressive totalitarian regimes, when is the last time you visited either?

1. I can't see an upheaval if Raul becomes president. The country has been in change ever since the soviets withdrew funding in '89 and been attempting to become more independant. The lastest article in the August issue of Time magazine depicts Raul as a more forgiving figure than his brother. Raul's tenure represents an opportunity nothing more.


2. Relax trade negotiations. Be aware of the history of corruption which surrounded many of the pre-Castro rulers. Fidel's rise to power was partially from the impact of Platt Amendment and partially as a break with American interests. The amendment contained control of land development. If Condi pushes American interests too aggressively she may revive the 'old glory days' of Fidel.


This is significant because Cuba was destined to become one large sugarcane plantation just as the Dominican Republic and Haiti during Cuba's colonial days. Much of the island geography that was fertile land was locked up with US monoculture and not enough for domestic consumption IE farms, grains, crops. For smaller countries which are islands, poverty can quickly become overwhelming if too much land is locked up in the hands of a few.

While many a US diplomat fought against nationalization of resources, this was necessary to establish progressive agrarian reform and future economic development. It is important for those not versed in economic thinking that developing countries must monopolize their agriculture or have full control of land use in order to develope. Exposing the markets to imports especially subsidized ones, will take out the foundation from which the rest of the economy is built upon. Fidel's speech in 1960 was the shot that soured relations between the two countries. It was all downhill from there on. The speech placed heavy emphasis on reclaiming lost land ownership.

So if Condi pushes reform through land use and farm development she will not be received well.

Come on please. Both countries are odious dictatorships where people are not free and thousands starve to death or are killed by police for speaking out. North Korea is a total disaster. Repression, and starvation are the order of the day. To compare the north and south here is a clear indication of the total failure of Communism.

Please define “hardly as bad off”. Would you prefer to live in either country? Why?

http://web.amnesty.org/library/index/engasa240032004