So far, even our own US media claims about 50 Hezbollah fighters have been killed, and about the same Isreali soldiers. Isreal has not degraded Hezbollah's ability to attack Isreal with rockets, and, in fact, has learned to defeat thier tanks

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060805/ap_on_...llah_s_missiles

Hezbollah repelled even the super feared Isreali commandoes in Tyre, and Isreal seems to be bumbling about indiscrimantly killing women and children and claiming each time that they were being 'used as human shields- which, alot of the world is starting to disbelieve a bit it seems as well. I have no doubt that Hezbollah is using this tactic, so don't get me wrong, I am not saying they are not, and I am not saying that Hezbolloh is 'the good guys"- I think more, Isreal has miscalculated this one badly. I think they only had two options prior to invading to win this:

1) Not invade at all, and just exchange prisoners

2) Commit a little genocide.

I think anything in between is bad for Isreal, in a catch -22 situation to begin with.

So given that, unusual for Isreal, that the casualties of actual fighters seem to be equal, and no degradation of Hezbollahs missle capability, and given the world is starting to turn on Isreal, even those Arab countries that initially blamed Hezbollah- who do YOU think is winning this one?

I'm surprised at the level bias in your post. Israel is not committing genocide, unless your point is to cheapen the word.
I'm curious as to your assertion that Israeli commandos were 'repelled' by Hezbollah. Your article doesn't address this fact, but this article does, and strangely doesn't mention anything about them being repelled.

The fact that Hezbollah lasted more than 6 days means that they won this war. Israel could go door to door and kill every member of Hezbollah and have Nasrallah's head on a silver platter for all the world to see, and still Hezbollah will have won. Why? Because every 9 year old wanna be jihadist is going to want to join Hezbollah now. Hezbollah was able to get Israel to withdrawal from Lebanon and now when Israel attacked Lebanon again, they were able to put up a fight. Just as Al-Qaeda was able to push the Soviets out of Afghanistan and thereby skyrocketing their popularity, Hezbollah's fight against Israel is a PR dream for them. Add to that that Israel's attacks on civilian buildings, the UN, and other non Hezbollah targets are enough to turn some of the teenagers from one of the most moderate arab states into a super ticked off Hezbollah recruit. The IDF isn't what it used to be. They've grown soft from kicking around rock throwing Palestinians in their Merkava tanks. Hezbollah was able to cross into Israel undetected, kill 3 IDF soldiers, wound 3 others, and capture 2 more in under 10 minutes and with the IDF even firing a shot. Then, while in pursuit of the kidnappers, the IDF was able to make it only 70 meters into Lebanon before losing a Merkava. That's only 230 feet. The fact of the matter is, Hezbollah well dug in and have been waiting for this fight for 6 years. CNN may report that the IDF has blow up 700 Hezbollah rocket locations but that doesn't mean squat when a "rocket location" is Saleh Q. Muhammad's house, he just goes a few blocks down the road and starts shooting from another house. I'm not saying Hezbollah is going to "wipe Israel off the map" but this isn't going to be a cake walk for Israel either.

Completely disagree with the analysis and positing of these questions..why are we given only two states or groups to consider in this battle? Think it totally ignores the fact the Lebanon and it's govt is unfortunately heavily reliant on the outcome and that Iran and Syria are too.

I think these questions ignore the fact that if Hezbollah is to continue, if this was to to escalate and carry on that Iran will have to commit itself more and more, and openly so, to the fight. So I think it is impossible to consider a "win" without considering Iran.

I think there are many jihadis who are not hoping for Hezbollah to win, I think there are many islamo-fascist who also hope Hezbollah is defeated. I think how the lines of war and vying of power are defined in Iraq is evidence enough of my theory.
And I think there is a large amount of of the "silent majority" in the Arab/Muslim world that hope for Hezbollah's demise and loss, even at the hands of the state of Israel, for entirely different reasons.

Hezbollah to it's backers is not a idealogy or a cause, it is a tool, so either Nasarallah will have to go forward and defeat Israel on his own, which I doubt, or else he will have to face defeat. I don't personally believe he has any other options as I don't believe Assad or the IRI really desires all out war. They just wanted to remind everyone who controls what and what their little controls allow them to do.

But I could be wrong, Iran could be completely, deadly and honestly serious about wanting to wipe Israel off the map, ok well yes I think they are actually. I just don't think they are that desperate yet, but again I could easily be wrong, I have read many analysis that believe they are.

What is the Migh?

It sounds like some sort of dastardly foe from a 1930's serial adventure.


I think Hezbollah is winning. Not because they are defeating Israel on the field of battle, though they are certainly not the 'weak force' as regularly portrayed by the BBC, but because they have managed to gain support right across the western world by portraying themselves as 'under dogs, forced to defend their people against the evil nazi regime of Israel'. A view so readily accepted that most every news media in the western is running ridiculously biased stories about Israel killing Lebanese babies.

The problem for Israel is, no matter what Israel does they are fighting against more than just Hezbollah. In truth they are fighting against the entire Islamic world, plus the millions of outraged westerners who equate Israel's defence with the images they are seeing daily of these dead children. At no point does the western media show images of dead Hezbollah fighters, mostly because they are not allowed to. Reporters on the ground are carefully managed by Hezbollah and largely show what Hezbollah dictates. Freedom of the press? What a joke!
The other day I heard about a journalist student who was told in her class that the news was not about telling people what happened, but giving people the story they want to hear about.

Its no wonder then that the Israel= baby killer campaign has taken off so well. All you need do is show people a picture of dead babies, point the finger and off they go. ...babies murdered by Hezbollah I hasten to add, and yet used by Hezbollah and its supporters as a moral foundation for their continued war against Israel. "Look! Look! Israel killed this little girl I was hiding behind! ...Get the pitch forks!"

It would be nice if the Southern Lebanese and the Palestinians would take some responsibility for their actions and re-consider the dubious advantages they have reaped from supporting such terrorists to run their countries... but I doubt it will happen. If anything Hezbollah's tactics seem so effective that it even has us convinced!

Maybe we need to start hiding behind children, cutting heads off and screaming about our struggle!


bucket.
You might find this article interesting, if you haven't already seen it. Its the only ray of hope I've seen all week. Personally I'm not holding my breath. I don't believe in Santa Claus either.

edited for spelling

Point of information.

I nulled my vote. I'm not sure if anyone, at least in the long run, is winning.

Okay- I said the only way for Isreal to WIN this is to commit genocide on a small scale- in other words- kill everyone in southern lebanon. They have not degraded Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets into northern isreal one bit- that is the point- the only way Isreal can stop the rocket attacks is to kill everyone, scorch the land, and occupy every square ind of it- to me, it is obvious that the entire region is learning very well how to fight the "western" forces through a hybird of mobile infantry an guerilla warfare, with some key heavy weaponry. Instead of facing US and Isreal tanks with tanks, they force those tanks to play "whack a mole" and kill the tanks when they can.

I don't think the Isreali's finished the mission- so yes, they were repelled. they shot and wounded or killed each other- but I didn't see anything about rocket launchers being destroyed or anything!

And the casualty numbers of both sides, as far as the actual fighters- is always in doubt- they claim one thing, we claim another. Who knows who is telling the truth? I don't trust our own talking heads any more than I trust Al-Jazeera

But, Hezbollah now has support it NEVER had before the war- and, prior to this battle- I would have agreed with Bucket- ther are alot of poeple in the Islamic political arena that would love to them wiped out- but, now, I think they are lionized by the rank and file population of the ME- though, I am sure the Islamic politicians that wanted them gone still want them gone- but they won't be saying that publically anymore!


I think that any thing short of total victory in southern Lebanon, meaning Hezbollah can no longer fire rockets into Isreal- represents a dramatic defeat for Isreal.

My issue with your wording is that you stated that the Israeli Commando's were repelled as fact, in your opening post, with no supporting data. Now you admit that this was simply your opinion in the absence of media reports that you trust. Certainly a biased slant.

I must admit that I am surprised at statements such as psyclist's, The fact that Hezbollah lasted more than 6 days means that they won this war. It almost sounds as if any western nation that finds itself facing a terrorist organization should simply surrender now and save themselves the trouble.
Israel is unquestionably able to sustain this conflict longer than Hezbollah. Thir key to winning is to prolong the fight until Hezbollah is degraded enough to allow for a comprehensive political solution. One that allows for Israel's security in the north and hopefully, a sovereign Lebanon, unconstrained by Syria, Iran or their proxy Hezbollah.

You missed my point then DTOM. I'm well aware that Isarel can keep up this fight. However, Hezbollah's ability to take the fight to Israel and not get steam rolled over like all the Arab governments did in the 6 day war is a huge win for Hezbollah. This war isn't about body counts, trying to kill Hezbollah is like trying to kill ants. When has Israel attacking an Arab country ever resulted in Israel becoming more secure? Now, Hezbollah is the one Arab group that has been able to take a fight to Israel and now every poor Shite in Southern Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Syria, Egypt etc that is ticked off at Israel for them blowing up their home or child or whatever is going to believe that Hezbollah is the group that has the ability to stand up to Israel. Al-Qaeda's PR firm is probably in over drive right now trying to figure out how they're going to keep their members from leaving and join up with Hezbollah.

I am surprised at the percentage of votes so far that say Hezbollah is winning. I suspect that most of those votes are votes that say politically or in the area of pr Hezbollah is winning. As far as I can tell israel is not making genuine attempts on that front.

To me it seems clear that Israel has the most ability to make a military impact and that Hezbollah has no genuine ability to hurt the Israeli army and diminish its capacity.

The best argument I could think of is that in attacking Lebanon with widespread air attacks and a sea blockade (I believe i am right about this part, please correct me if I am wrong) that Israel is severely hurting the Lebanese government and likely increasing the amount of influence Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran will have in future governments in Lebanon.

I, too, feel that the use of genocide was reckless in the opening questions. I don't think either side has a hope of an absolute victory in this case. Israel's foreign policy goal in this case is a stable northern border and a northern neighbor that can be a sovereign power and take responsibility for actions taken within its border.

I read this situation as Israel having no faith in the weak government of Lebanon in fixing the situation. That it has and likely will not gain the military power or the political will to deal with Hezbollah.

And in the present climate where the United States is using a policy of preemptive attacks, the United States is not in a real position to rein in Israel quickly or threaten to reduce its military support to the state of Israel.

With a window of opportunity Israel seems set on doing maximum damage to hezbollah to reduce its ability to launch such widespread attacks against Israel. It will continue the campaign as long as it can to try to wipe out Hezbollah's ability to act aggressively for the longest respite it can win.

On this military front, Israel may not get the damage against Hezbollah it wants, but I think it is the only dog in the fight that has a chance of attaining a military objective in southern Lebanon.

First you are off by about a factor of ten. It is 50 IDF to 500 Hezbollah. Not 50-50. The IDF has seriously damaged their rocket launching capability and their commandos were not and never have been repelled. My goodness they went into the Bekka Valley (which has been Hezbollah controlled for 24 years) and kicked rear and took names literally. This is something that nobody thought possible, Tyre is another stronghold that they waltz in and did exactly what they wanted.

The ones that miscalculated were Hezbollah. They thought it was another cross border attack and Israel would be blamed. Guess what they were wrong and they will not survive this, unless Rice saves them again. The only out come left that Israel will accept is the disarming of Hezbollah. Once they are disarmed they are through. This is the end of them, not Israel.

I respect your opinion, I simply have the opposite. I have every confidence that Israel will be able to clear enough land in southern Lebanon to protect itself from the rocket and missile attacks, and hopefully when that occurs a neutral force will be able to move in and provide a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah. It should be fairly indisputable that Hezbollah has taken some serious body blows. They've expended a good number of rockets resulting in fear and damage, but minimal casualties. Their command and control has been damaged and their supply routes to Syria have been attacked and are under constant surveillance. And it's safe to say that a fair number of previously safe areas have been denied to them.

I have no doubt that Israel will prevail and meet their military objectives, but probably not their political ones. I predict that the UN will remain too weak to provide a Chapter VII resolution and accompanying force, so hopefully a coalition of nations will step in to prevent further violence, once that buffer zone is created.

Last I heard (about a week ago), Hezbollah reported it had lost fifty something men, and in response Israel claimed it had killed "dozens more then that". If Israels being honest then the ratio of deaths is somewhere around 1 to 2 or 1 to 1.5. Israel also said that it had destroyed two thirds of Hezbollah's rockets.

Cruisingram claims very few of Hezbollah's rockets have been destroyed, but even if thats true, at the very least a great number of them have been expended (to mostly no lethal effect thanks to bomb shelters).

Loreng claims that 500 Hezbollah have been killed, but I have heard neither side purport that.

Whose winning?

We'll Israel (if taken at it's word) is winning the military war, but Hezbollah is wooping it at the PR war.

What one must keep in mind is that counting the casualties for Hezbollah is extremely difficult since they do not wear military uniforms. It is impossible to distinguish between who is a Hezbollah fighter and a civilian when going through the rubble. So the statistics really cannot be trusted.

Israel is winning the war but could of finished this already if their hands weren't tied by the modern ways of combat. They could have swept in there and have probably delcared victory within a week. But I suppose the contemporary wisdom is that a longer a prolonged conflict that attempts to minimize civilian casualties is better than a quick and immediate campaign that ends the fighting as soon as possible.

I find it simply amazing that anyone can find that Hezbollah is winning the PR war. Maybe in the Arab media, but if that is the case in the West i am at a loss for words. Its like the Mafia or a Drug Cartel winning the favor and support of the media here in the US.

1. What action should the US take if a similar situation ocurred might be a better question... If it were your son or daughter that were killed or captured without provocation what would you support? Israel is doing what any country should do and I don't know the mind of Islamic folks but I know how I would feel if a terror group caused my country to be totally decimated for a reason the majority of the country didn't support their own army to take... If America allowed a cuban terror group to attack Cuba and Cuba responded with self defence how would you feel?

2. I don't think genocide is the answer but the actions taken making life and commerce impossible should be a lesson to the folks in Lebanon to put off the destruction of Israel until they have a superior military force or all together... I think along with the bridges the power plants should go if the Lebanon government doesn't step forward to plead with the terrorists to stop this mess and return the Israeli soldiers that started the whole mess. If I lost everything, or near everything as a citizen of Lebanon I think I would look at the root of how I lost it... Now it is time to decide to end the terror or join the terror and sane people will clearly see the world body offer a peaceful ending that once again the terrorist reject ... I see Israel as a winner here.

The US interests would be better served if we open diplomacy with Syria and let them know up front if they expand the war we will have each of their military bases targeted with bombs for destruction as they have threatened Israel should they send in too many troops to harm their terrorists.

Israel is winning the war but could of finished this already if their hands weren't tied by the modern ways of combat. They could have swept in there and have probably delcared victory within a week. But I suppose the contemporary wisdom is that a longer a prolonged conflict that attempts to minimize civilian casualties is better than a quick and immediate campaign that ends the fighting as soon as possible.

Israel could have gone in with a massive ground invasion in the begining, avioded civillian casualties, and got done more then they have gotten done.

The reason they didn't, was in order to save their own troops, which was an understandable, but nevertheless from a purely humanitarian standpoint, wrong.

I find it simply amazing that anyone can find that Hezbollah is winning the PR war. Maybe in the Arab media, but if that is the case in the West i am at a loss for words. Its like the Mafia or a Drug Cartel winning the favor and support of the media here in the US.

I was refering to them winning the PR war in the Middle East (Arabs see Qana and it's bretheren, shout bloody murder, and look at the valiant Hezbollans as hereos) . Many in the west may be angry at Israel's handling of this situation, but next to no one is actually for Hezbollah.

Source? Or are you saying the civilian casualty rate is inflated and the Hezbollah are part of the civilian count? If so, I have not read that source- that is what suprised ME at first- is every account I have read so far says not many more Hezbollah are being killed than Isreali- which I would have thought would be a -1-10 ratio, at least.

DTOM- the reason I say repulsed is that they didn't seem to complete any mission other than getting into a firefight and leaving.

I don't see any real degradation of rocket launchers or anything like that- and Isreal has certainly seemed to have scaled back their objectives for this mission (re-defining for themselves what a "win" is?)

Source, would the Israeli government be good enough? Arutz7 News
Jerusalem Post, Ha'aretz All which I would consider a better source than say Rueters which has an established pattern of disinformation on the Middle East for years now.

That one is a hard one for me fella- on one hand- it is hard for me to believe that Hezbollah has been able to inflict such casualties and take out Isreali tanks at all- we both know how good US and Isreali soldiers and weaponry are trained and built. On the other hand, there is a campaign of disinformation on both sides, I don't trust Reuters, Al Jazeera or anything the Isreali news agency are reporting. They all have very good motivations to lie it seems?

But to me, the thrust of this subject is this- are the former low tech guerilla fighers that are poorly trained cannon fodder starting to adapt and overcome US and Isreali military dominance and training? I don't think Isreal or America is adapting as fast as thier enemies by any means- or an any arena, including political, PR and tactics. I think that the enemies of Isreal and the US have really started to adapt to the realities we throw at them.

We both use propanda to the max. We say they are hiding behind civilians, we don't bomb civilians on purpose= though we seem to kill lot more civilians over all than they do- just by nature of the war we bring- no, I don't believe it is intentional either- they say we are just trying to punish the muslim world etc etc-

and i am sure the reality is somewhere in between.

At this point, I don't think Isreal is winning this "skirmish" or whatever we are calling it now? And I think it is because the Islamo-fighters are starting to think netwar and hybirdizing very well against our overwhelming conventional military machine.


This is part and parcel of the anger I feel towards the GW regime too- that mishandling everything post 9/11 is a partial reason we see this adaptation, if not THE reason. There is a ME population boom, they are outbreeding us, big time. And on top of that, the neo-con ideology without any basis in pragmatism has formed a recruiting boom that OBL probably never dreamed of in his wildest fantasyes of hate and destruction.

Seems to me, that Isreal and the US keeps playing right into the plans of those bad guys, and, Unless we got the stomach for some genocide- we are going to lose. I really don't see an alternative at this point to a long term 'win".

This never would have happened if the U.S. didn't Force Syria to remove their troops
from the border of Lebanon/Israel.
Syria being there kept Hezbollah in check.
I believe Lebanon tolerated Hezbollah being there for that reason. (protection)

So why did we make them leave??

Since it flies in the face of all reputable data, can you please provide us with some sort of basis for your opinion that the US forced Syria to pull out of Lebanon? And while you're at it, would you care to repudiate the fact that Syria is an ally and an arms supplier of Hezbollah, which is why Israel has been interdicting the main supply arteries between the two?

The U.S. did tell Syria to pull out of Lebanon. That is not an opinion it was awhile ago so i don't have the news link on hand, however i did find one link to at least show you something, since you don't remember it happening.

And as for the FACT that Iran, Syria, and Lebanon supply Hezbollah with weapons Link

The Hezbollah forces facing Israel right now are better trained than any in the Lebanese army. In fact, I heard a military commentator over the weekend say that they are the equivalent of the Iranian Guard. In fact, Hezbollah are trained by Iran

From Kayla's linked Wiki article:


This is not a ragtag group of "low tech" guerillas. They may not have armor or artillery, but that only makes them harder to hit and to pin down.

Who is winning this war?

The answer is: it is too early to say. If the war was forced to end today, I would declare Hezbollah the winner simply by surviving with its arms intact. However, the conflict will not end today and it will not end until Israel gets its soldiers back "unconditionally" and an international force is in Southern Lebanon to act as a buffer and insurance that Hezbollah will not return. At that point, Israel will have won.

At this point, neither side has accomplished its objectives and thus neither is winning.

Ummm....world leaders demand things all the time. You didn't mention that Germany demanded Syria pull out. This may be Poly-Sci 101, but demanding something and forcing something are two separate things altogether. Hariri's assassination and a popular resistance to Syria's presence forced their withdrawl.

As to aid:

link

You're kidding right? This did happen while Syria occupied Lebanon there were several thousand attacks, and they did cross the border and while UNFIL was watching murder and kidnap Israelis and then lied about it and covered it up. All the while the Syrian Army occupied Lebanon.

I think it is supposed to be mighty, which does compliment your theory about how so many love rooting for the underdogs.



I have read that article, along with this one which I posted in another thread:
Leading Saudi Sheik Pronounces Fatwa Against Hezbollah
and this example of the debate occurring about Hezbollah in the Arab world is also an interesting read:
The Land Has Been Liberated; the Role of the Resistance Must End"
An editorial in the Saudi daily 'Okaz claimed that Hizbullah does not meet the criteria to be considered legitimate resistance: "There exists a consensus concerning the definition of an 'occupier': he is one who uses force to illegitimately steal land that is not his own from its residents. However, there is disagreement concerning the definition of 'legitimate resistance.' In the case of the resistance in southern Lebanon and the degree of legitimacy [given] to Hizbullah as national resistance, we find ourselves before an interpretation that is different [than the standard one in support of resistance movements]... The Hizbullah organization's being a defense [organization] on Lebanese soil is not sufficient for it to be considered a legitimate resistance movement, if it acts outside of the umbrella of the Lebanese government. Actions that some [i.e. Hizbullah] consider quality actions against the Israeli enemy are actually [actions] that bring disasters and troubles on all of Lebanon.


Obviously the manner in which Hezbollah is portrayed in the Western media and again here in this debate, as opposed to and in resistance of the "mighty", is not the universal view, and most specifically so in the Arab world. Hezbollah is not seen as a weak, struggling resistance to power, but instead an extension of Iran's power in the region, not something every Muslim or Arab wishes to encourage or celebrate.




Because we like making the world miserable. Is that the answer you seek?

WE, the US didn't force Syria to do anything. We alone could never have encouraged their pseudo-withdrawal. America's disapproval is most often what states like Syria seek, not fear. France demanded it, the KSA demanded it, The Lebanese people demanded it...do you not know what the Cedar Revolution is? But most importantly it is a UN mandate. Not one state on the UNSC voted against this resolution.
UN Security Council Resolution 1559 (2004) to end Syrian Occupation

Syria never kept Hezbollah in check, that is the lie they wish you to believe so they can once again be granted legitimacy by the international community to occupy Lebanon, again. In other words Hezbollah is acting as the tool of Syria's interests in Lebanon, again. How long do we let this ridiculous game go on for?

Are you serious!!?

The anti armour weaponry Hezbollah is using is from Iran, but originally its Russian built. Its quality stuff, specifically designed to be used against US armour. Sheesh, how many armoured vehicles did the US already lose in Iraq? I lost count after about the first twelve or so stories about M1's and Bradley's being taken out by souped up Russian RPG's, IED's and anti armour missiles.

The IDF tanks don't stand a chance against a shaped charge in the right place. Iraq has demonstarted once and for all how obsolete expensive armour is against cheap explosives and Hezbollah are reading from the same manual.

In strictly military terms Hezbollah doesn't stand a chance in the long run. Israel would grind them into the dust if given the time needed, but that hardly matters in the modern world. If Annan, Egeland and the rest of the non democratically elected band of UN 'peacekeepers' have their way, Hezbollah will be back in business as soon as a ceasefire can be established.


bucket

Well, I hope your right about that

Link.


It would be a shame to see Syria lose its foreign minister since he's been doing such a great job so far...



Gotta love the move though. Now when Israel doesn't attack Syria, Mouallem can ignore the charred and dusty remains of Hezbollah and strut about in front of his jihadi friends and play the big man who saw the Jews off.

Things have been happening, yes.
But look at it NOW. I'm saying it wouldn't have gotten this out of control if Syria was still there.

Those comments are interesting because they show Syria has officially no recognition for or even respect towards the true Lebanese government. And making comments like that, claiming they are willing to stand with Hezbollah shows how they are willing to walk over the Lebanese and their elected government to get there. There have been a lot of discussions on how this move by Hezbollah has also been cover to a government coup.
So that when all the smoke has cleared and the inevitable ceasefire is called, the Lebanese government will no longer even have the appearance of political control over Lebanon. And for all those who believe as this debate presents it, that this is a war Hezbollah wages against the Israelis, you are wrong. It is also the Lebanese people, the sovereignty of the Lebanese state and the freely elected Lebanese govt. this war is also against.

And even when the battle with the Israelis is over, he adds menacingly, Hizbullah will have other battles to fight. "The real battle is after the end of this war. We will have to settle score with the Lebanese politicians. We also have the best security and intelligence apparatus in this country, and we can reach any of those people who are speaking against us now. Let's finish with the Israelis and then we will settle scores later."
link
A ceasefire will likely only preserve this battle for Hezbollah.

Protection?! Protection from what? Their presence has only served as a magnet for Israeli military action. Notice that Jordan has been able to get by just fine without the "protection" of a group like Hezbollah. Israel doesn't just go around invading countries just for the heck of it. Usually they have to be provoked. Which is exactly what Hezbollah did.

Ah, but you see, the evil neocons already have a plan to counter that
Link.
The link might be a bit dodgy but it gets through if you are persistent enough...

I've been waiting for the anti war crowd to jump on this one for the last few days but no one seems to have noticed it.

Yes but I honestly do not think Sleeper was referring to the Arab media when he asked the question of the PR war. For anyone anywhere to even bother asking if Israel can win a PR campaign in the Arab world is beyond foolish. The question has to do with Western outlets where there can actually be some debate.



I think what you are trying to get at here Kayla, is that there would be an order of balance of power with Israel checking Syria and Syria checking Israel. But this is a bad analysis. Hezbollah is armed by Iran and Syria and may even be directed by them...but they act with complete freedom because the ties with those nations can be made to look minute enough to avoid direct responsibility. So even if Syria remained in Southern Lebanon, that is no guarantee that Hezbollah would have not gone into Israel and killed/kidnapped Israeli soldiers. All that it might have done is prevented Israel from striking with the force that it did (i'm assuming this is your assumption). But the Syrian army is a group of rag-tags who the Israeli army would have made quick work of. Consequently, the situation could have been a whole lot worse if Syria was still there because it would have had the potential to plunge the entire Arab world into war with Iran, Syria, and other Arab countries fighting Israel and would put our operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in even bigger jeopardy. So basically, thank your lucky stars Syria left.

So given that, unusual for Isreal, that the casualties of actual fighters seem to be equal, and no degradation of Hezbollahs missle capability, and given the world is starting to turn on Isreal, even those Arab countries that initially blamed Hezbollah- who do YOU think is winning this one?
[/quote]


It's quite interesting that you would say that Israel is losing the war. Are you over there? I haven't been either, but I venture to say that Israel is winning the war. Six days or not, doesn't matter here. Each war, each battle is different and in this unconventional war it will take longer for Israel to root out Hezbollah and destroy them. But rest assured, it will be done.

Hezbollah is moving their weapons into heavy civilian territories and bombing Israel from those points. They know Israel will retaliate in those same spots, so they leave, and civilians die. This wins a media war for the Hezbollah, and this is something we need to change. They are, for the most part, using the innocent people of Lebanon for their own cause, and if that means their death, than that is fine.

Israel will, in time, root out Hezbollah and take the down the infrastructure that allowed Hezbollah to stand. All in good time my friend.

Hizballah/ Nassrallah never expected Israel to go all out after them the way she did , they thought that pre-9/11 mentality was still the order of the day ..WRONG ..two Israelis taken hostage TODAY is a good enough reason to invade and destroy ..5 years ago it wasn't ..and look what happened : Hizballah has without a doubt lost ground and can't replace the missiles they fired without getting Syria in direct trouble ..as for the tanks i'll give you that one ..but Israel has changed tactics and been sending soldiers on foot to fight..





I doubt that Israel planned to occupy Tyre..this was just an operation meant to extend the front on which the fighters of Hizballah are fighting ..kind of like to try to stretch'em thin if you will ..IMHO



So has Hizballah ..




That was never an option IMO ..not in a post-911 world ..




In the so called " war on terror " the 'G' word doesn't exist ..



They both lost ..but Hizballah is the bigger loser of the two..

Hizballah can't set up shop where they used to , and Israel will get what she wanted through the UN since they failed on the battle field.

Kayla, that link substantiates that fact, so I'm not sure what your point is meant to be.



I would tend to agree with this, militarily. Hizballah might claim some short term victories, merely by continuing to exist (although I don't really think their complete destruction was really an Israeli goal, as it simply wasn't possible with an enemy you can't even identify). Politically, I think Hizballah is winning, at least again in the short term. Their support has increased amongst Lebanese to the point where they might be the majority now. I think what we have here is two groups working towards goals that aren't incompatible...Hizballah wanted to win politically, whereas Israel wanted to win militarily. Both are doing so. Israel is going to get the buffer zone it wanted, and will hopefully get respite from the rocket and terroristic attacks (else they will invade again eventually). Hizballah may lose some of their weapons, but we stronger popular support, they don't really need them, do they?

I think the question misses the point by excluding Iran, who might end up the biggest winner.

I would both agree and disagree with this statement on a couple of points. Hezbollah has indeed scored a victory with the UN resolution, simply because the resolution recognizes Hezbollah and in essence puts them on par with Israel. A terrorist organization on par with a democratic nation........that really reinforces my trust in the UN.........

I believe Israel didn't so much lose on the battlefield as they simply didn't commit the manpower and resources to wage a war of annihilation against Hezbollah. A more aggressive campaign would have had much more success in destroying the terrorists, but would have undoubtedly led to more complications with Lebanon and Syria. I don't view their end result as a failure, but rather restraint.

A terrorist organization on par with a democratic nation........that really reinforces my trust in the UN.........

Quoted from Dontreadonme


If anything maybe Hezbollah will get involved, it would be better then simply them living in the shadows if anything, its not putting them on par with a democratic nation either, its simply allowing for them to be recognized by the U.N, being they are recognized one way or another. Even so, the resolution is basically in no way in favor of them, its in favor of Israel being able to live in peace and basically demanding Hezbollah cease and desist, will it work, who knows, not overnight that is for sure. If diplomacy can work with Hezbollah, it could start something, being its a rather large group, it could be a start in a direction that is more favorable then digging gorilla fighters out of urban areas and the whole mess that truly is for everyone involved, its not a risk overall in the simple fact Hezbollah can either respect it or not, being they would have to anyways even if not worded into the resolution, so what’s the real difference there, I simply don’t see it. We can look at them as bad guys all day long, and moreover I could really care less if they all dies horrible deaths, but I am not so dumb as to think they view themselves as sinister evil people fighting the justice league in some Childs comic book... with that said maybe such realistic diplomacy being they are in the equation anyway could bear some fruit, of course i am sure some of it will be rotten but nature seldom bears the happy endings you can find in children stories also.

Really, have the time when nations don’t talk to each other it reminds me of children doing the "I will never talk to you again" routine, it hardly ever produces anything save a direction to a darker environment for everyone involved. The U.N resolution favors Israel, not Hezbollah, Hezbollah will be part of the resolution worded or not, the force is not there to proved hunter killer teams against Hezbollah as much its there to find a true way to end the conflict or bring about conflict resolution, this will not be possible if Hezbollah is simply *** NOTICE: THIS WORD IS AGAINST THE RULES. FAILURE TO REMOVE IT WILL RESULT IN A STRIKE. *** on for lack of better words even if they are a despicable group of people, again Hezbollah can use it civilly or not, they would have the same choice either way, so I feel the U.N is simply just being realistic.

As for the topic, I put a null vote, its impossible to tell who is the winner so fast, even with everything that gone on you still cant tell, Israel and radical Islam have been at war forever now, there is still no winner simply because neither side has what it takes to really win for what that really means in relation to goals imposed by each other on each other, either the international community can find a way to resolve the conflict or we can just accept it as an elephant in the room its been for the last sixty years.

I thought it would have been funny if Israel deployed about 50,000 paratroopers in pockets all throughout southern Lebanon overnight, being mobility is basically denied to everyone in that part of the world, but hey, maybe the world does not have to see this war and whatever it would have morphed into now.

IMO what Israel wanted was to smash the Hezbollah controlled area and destroy their caches of weapons. In addition they have made it clear to the government in Lebanon and the international community that they will not just sit back and be targeted by Hezbollah thugs forever.

Certainly they have cost the terrorists and their supporters in Lebanon billions in lost men, and material and well as living quarters. It will take Hezbollah much time to recover even with lots of help from Syria and Iran. And finally it puts the international community and the UN in the position of having to deal with Hezbollah aggression in the area. If they do nothing then Israel can feel justified (and should) in hammering Hezbollah and Lebanon into dust.

Well Ted, what you said may make for some good pro-Isreal propoganda copy- it just didn't happen that way at all-

1) Forced formerly very anti-Hezbollah Arab goverments to support Hezbollah
2) did not degrade Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets into Isreal at will- in fact, they sent what- 300 right before the cease fire?
3) Probably will destroy any anti-Hezbollah political parties in Lebonon, while increasing Hezbollah support in Lebonon.

I mean- Isreal bombed the christian quarters of the country- what the heck were they thinking?

"Feigning Credibility"


Please provide a credible source for this, a cursory search yeilded nothing.


Haze Ebola fought a war of retreat.
You take international peacenick pressure to stop Israel as a sign of weakness.
The lebanese are angry at the Israelis, but knowing that Israel does not want to occupy or rule lebanon, they are silently and agregiously blame Haze Ebola for the trouble. And it is syria which perpetuates discontent with real politic through shebaa farms.

This is evidentiary as my sentiments about religious edict are completely alien.
Mohammed said Moses' Genesis was a fabricated lie leading islam to reject what is considered a foundation of the abraham religion - the indisputeable promise and responsibility of that god.
Muslim's denying the judaic state of israel for canaan is muslims denying the premise and foundation of their god, it is heresy and blasphemy. None of it can be.
Shout it from the top of the world; the god of abraham is a myth, and the conjectures of family history and proclamations of divine inscription are anthropological contrivings and hermeneutic lies.

Religion has hijacked the truth of mortality promising fictions.
Procreation is the only way to being and becoming.
Eternal life is a metaphor.

One thing is certain sharia law is garbage and it cannot be excised from islam.
Democracy without individual liberties against the majority is a farce.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,,1837195,00.html

Your yahoo link two paragraphs above does not work.


Thanks. It was a bridge of strategic transport between Syria and Lebanon.
Haze Ebola was not launching attacks from within the christian communities (they are unwelcome) thus there were otherwise no military objectives.


2006 Israel Lebanon Conflict
Economic aftermath indicate that the fighting had resulted in a huge financial setback for Lebanon, with estimates ranging from US$7 to US$10 billion[64] in direct costs while the cost for Israel is put at US$1.6 - US$3 billion. This, and other factors has prompted a commentator in the London-based Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat to question the claims of victory by Hezbollah.
....
Furthermore, Hezbollah is also leading the rebuilding effort in south Beirut and Lebanon using "unlimited" support from Iran, thereby awarding Hezbollah further political clout.

The biggest loss is for the lebanese people - stupidly deceived by syrian and iranian islamofascists.
The iranian people would have their own government removed.
Let us see if the lebanese are as ignorant to succumb to the same dictatorial venue.
Sharia law is garbage.

The poll makes the assumption that all things are equal. Do you really believe that Israel was in an all out war in Lebanon? I hope you don't. There was plenty of good reason for them to hold back which they did, and it was very unusual for them to do so. Does anyone really believe that Hezbollah fighters are as good as Israeli soldiers; Israel is a country that has been fighting and dealing with terrorism for 58 years. With all the money of Iran, Hezbollah in no way, shape or form has the military or the technology of Israel. That would be wishful thinking.

I don't mean to stir up a dead thread but do you have anything to offer other than speculation and opinion? Do you have any facts that back up your assertions? What is "all out war"? Does Hezbollah have to be "as good" as the IDF to win? Were the Muhajadin better than the Soviets? Does Hezbollah need the technology of Israel to win? If they could kill IDF with spit wads would they still need the military and technology of Israel? Please bring something to the table other than one liners and assumptions. Obviously they fought and obviously the IDF lost some people so it seems your assertions of "the IDF just weren't trying" and Hezbollah is impotent is a tad bit off.

I very strenously object to the use of the term "Islamo-fascists" in the title of this thread. It is prejudicial and question-begging. If you want a debate, you should post your question in terms that either side can subscribe to.

Fascism is well defined as the exhaltation of the nation, and particularly its military institutions, above all other considerations. My country right or wrong, as it were, and Support Our Sturmtruppen! This far more resembles the super-patriotic Americans who advocate War Until Triumph (Victory, Hail!) and who emphasize the criticality of a strong National Will than it does our enemies.

Finally, one should observe that it is not necessary in all cases to defeat one's enemies in set-piece battles. Often, the weight of circumstance and history being against one's enemy, it is sufficient merely to survive. That is primarily what the Russians did against Napoleon in 1812, for example, and for the most part, the Americans against the British during the War of Independence. That is how Castro defeated Batista, by the way.

From that perspective, I think it's evident that the recent hostilities between Hebollah and the Israelis were a very serious strategic defeat for the latter.