Does Barack Obama have a chance to win the Presidential Election 2008?

One can't foretell what the political weather will be come 2008. I says he has a better chance then any of the other canidates liable to win the primary, to fair well in the eventual general election. Part of what might determine his likelihood of victory is whether or not the Republicans can get Guiuliani to run. If he doesn't, its predicted Mcain will win the primary. His centrism may allow him to fair well in a general election in terms of getting independents, but Obama outranks virtually every other politician i've ever seen in coming out as seeming earnest, competent, respectful, and measured when he speaks. I think many voters will be charmed by that, considering how partisan things have gotten over the past few years. Obama's latest book's main focus is actually on how to get rid of the smogy political atmosphere surrounding washington today. Mcain isn't bad, but I don't think any of his main strengths (independence, straight forwardness, and competence) are not eclipsed by Obama's.

How do you think he will weather the media machine’s attempts to smear him?

Difficult to say. I don't know what he's got hidden in his past, but from my knowledge of it (which is admittedly mostly derived from his book "Dreams of my father"), it's relatively clean.

Would you vote for him?

Yes, I would say he is my favorite politician in the modern political sphere. Tending to take people as they seem, I view him as earnest, competent, respectful, and measured.

The Osama reference is related to the Senior Senator from Massachusetts bungling of his name. I won't comment on whether his fifth of scotch was half full or half empty when he said it. That speculation is best left to the democrats.

Kennedy and Osama Obama

I guess you can blame one of the standard bearers of the left wing of the democrat party for that slur. He invented it.




Obama admitted his drug (pot and cocaine) use in his own book. I guess he managed to ride a swift boat all by himself, huh? If it becomes an issue, I'm sure it'll be the "republicans fault" in your eyes. Oh, and because the democrats have already made unsubstantiated claims against our current president in this regard, the "everyone does it defense" will certainly be used.

But anyway, the issue isn't George W. Bush. He isn't running against anyone in 2008. He already beat the best the democrats could put out there twice in a row. But getting back on topic, Obama is clearly a media darling and the press have puffed him up to rock star proportions. Yet, the only thing he's ever run in his life is his mouth. He has no experience. Certainly, not the type of experience that I would demand if voting this person in for one of the most important positions in the world.

And the fact that he's a "minority"? As I said, that's a reason why the left leaning media are pumping him up. They see it as their "duty" to promote blacks in our society just like they see it as their "duty" to fight off the "right wing cabal" of Bush and the evangelical right.

I'll ignore the other blatant personal attacks that you made in your post since they are done so often they have zero impact. Perhaps that's why you get away with them in almost every post.

Right. And you just couldn't pass up a chance to repeat it.



The current president refuses to talk about his drug and alcohol abuse saying that his youthful indiscretions aren't relevant. If Barack Obama experimented with pot and cocaine, it didn't hurt his standing to run for the U.S. Senate and though I'm sure someone will bring it up (like you) in the future, it shouldn't have any bearing on his running for the presidency if he chooses to.



And you know this how precisely? Did the "left-leaning media" pump up Colin Powell and Condoleeza Rice to their current status they enjoy as two of the most admired people in America? But that's so typical of you, lordhelmet. You don't give Black people any credit for achieving their station in life based on their own merit and hard work. Instead, you say they're only the beneficiaries of liberal guilt.



Uh, you do realize that you just responded to the alleged "blatant personal attacks" by saying they have "zero impact," right?

As far as making "blatant personal attacks" goes, I'll just respond to that with some street knowledge and reply, "game recognizes game."

Again, we find ourselves strangely agreeing. While I'm not an Obama fan politically, drug use during one's youth shouldn't count someone out, particularly in Gen X and Gen Y circles. Most people in their late 20's and mid-early 30's have a different understanding of someone that smoked a little pot when they were younger. While I can say I'm not a fan of coke users or those circles, so long as he's not into it now... whatever. Youthful indiscretions. Some drink, some smoke, some womanize, etc. If they're good people with a good political track record and a heart for positive change... whatever. Go for it. Maybe knowing a little about pot smokers or coke users might make him a more rounded person. In either case, if he's not a crack head now, no harm no foul.

Yeah, breaking the law is no big deal. Neither is cheating on one's spouse. Lying under oath? No problem. Why not throw in a rape charge and charges (and suits) related to sexual harassment! Hey!, it makes the president or candidate more "rounded". Why stop there? Any democrats running with murder convictions in their background? How about grand theft auto? No? I'm sure if they can be made to be a "victim" and if they have superficial looks good enough for the mainstream, and utterly shallow media to latch onto, they can be made into "rock stars" like Osama Obama!

Positive political change, my foot. By that, what you mean is if he adopts leftist ideology, he's just fine and more "well rounded". If he's conservative..... well, he's fair game to be attacked under the tired and worn out "hypocrite" label.

I am coming to believe that if leftists did not have double standards they would have no standards at all.

Sour grapes... this season, you can't get anywhere without hearing about Republican "indiscretions". From Newt Gingrich to Mark Foley(R-FL), from Bob Ney(R-OH) to Randy Cunningham(R-CA), from Don Sherwood (R-PA) to venerable Tom Delay (R-TX)... my, my... I understand your frustration. And, of course, who's to blame for conservatives' lack of moral backbone but "leftists" and their double standards.

Hey Lordhelmet posted! Lets go through the 'lordhelmet checklist' shall we?
-pointless attack against Clinton (even though it has nothing to do with the topic): Check!
-pointless attack against Ted Kennedy (even though it has nothing to do with the topic): Check!
-pointless attack against the ACLU (even though it has nothing to do with the topic): No? Why lordhelmet, you must have been rushed for time.


As for the 'double standard' comment, I think its safe to say the Republicans have At Least as much of a problem in this department as the Democrats do, if not more. Sadly, having a certain degree of a double standard seems to be a necessary part of being into high politics in the United States, no matter what your party. But trying to pin this on one party while ignoring the obvious evience of the same in the other is (and how ironic is this?) a complete and obvious double standard.


Obama has a lot going for him, which is why he is being pushed to the forefront of Democratic politics before his time. The man should serve out his term in the Senate, then run for Governor, then for President. He would be a shoe-in then. Now he simply does not have the experience or record behind him to win.

Aside: I am a little puzzled about the comments here about his unwillingness to commit American troops to Darfur. I didn't see any reluctance, I just saw him wanting to do it within the framework of the UN. What is the problem? Should he be burning with desire to send US troops into Africa just because he is black?

Speaking of double standards....

Yeah, breaking the law is no big deal. Betray your constituents and line your own pockets like Randy "Duke" Cunningham. Betray your constituents and line your own pockets like Bob Ney. Betray your constituents and line your own pockets like Tom DeLay (starting to see a pattern here?). Betray your constituents and breathe heavily over teenage boys as they tell you what kind of techniques they use for masturbation like Mark ("I'm always here, always lonely and always ready for oral sex") Foley.

Here we have some of the "rock stars" of the Not Your Daddy's Republican Party. A loooong way from Everett Dirksen, Barry Goldwater or Ronald Reagan, wouldn't you say?

I'll take "Osama Obama" over Mark "NAMBLA" Foley every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

If the label of "hypocrite" has been worn out it was the conservatives who did it themselves---when they weren't being bought off or horndogging boys.

Goodness, that didn't take long. Funny how one of the first things I heard Barack Obama speak about was some of the things he'd done in his youth, including the admission about his experimenting with drugs. He has admitted it openly and publicly, unlike some others we could mention.

And that is precisely what I mean about "media smears". If it becomes evident that Sen. Obama is going to run, I'm sure the media outlets will be scrambling to creatively edit said interviews to portray him as a hard-partying druggie.

And, BTW, the "Osama" reference is a really cheap shot, and ugly to boot. I'm surprised you didn't include a jab at his middle name...Hussein. Missed a plum opportunity, din't ya?

There's no way you can chracterize this, lordhelmet, other than hittting below the belt. Bingo! Guilt by association - two birds with one stone tied to Obama - Kennedy and Osama. Clever!

Osama can also be spelled "Usama." (See Richard Clarke's book)

If Barack's last name were Ubama would you have called him Usama?

Did Ted Kennedy (D-MA) call Obama "Hussein" too?

If so, I missed it. Sorry.

Perhaps he passed out before he could slur that rendition of Obama's name out...

Guys, what lh mentioned is a sound clip that Hannity plays on his radio show. It's a slam on Kennedy, not Obama. He couldn't get the name out, kept saying "Osama." It's funny, and in no way a dig at the junior Senator from IL.

I'll second or third this - I'm not in the least bit interested in Obama's drug use, especially if he prints it in his book for all to see. Very straightforward of him. Keep in mind that he grew up in a few countries where those drugs could have been perfectly legal. Just a thought.

Yeah, breaking the law is no big deal.

Bush engaged in illegal drug use to, is he unfit to be president?

Neither is cheating on one's spouse. Lying under oath? No problem. Why not throw in a rape charge and charges (and suits) related to sexual harassment! Hey!, it makes the president or candidate more "rounded". Why stop there? Any democrats running with murder convictions in their background? How about grand theft auto? No? I'm sure if they can be made to be a "victim" and if they have superficial looks good enough for the mainstream, and utterly shallow media to latch onto, they can be made into "rock stars" like Osama Obama!

Were talking about Obama, not Clinton, and the stuff about murder convictions and GTA sounds like a pointless rant, unless there are Dems out there guilty of such crimes, whom I am not aware of.

Positive political change, my foot. By that, what you mean is if he adopts leftist ideology, he's just fine and more "well rounded". If he's conservative..... well, he's fair game to be attacked under the tired and worn out "hypocrite" label.

Obama speaks in his book of cleaning up the animosity and absolutism of modern politics, and replacing it with pragmatism, straight talk, honesty, an appeal to common values where possible, and a general acknowledgement of mutual good faith. Maybe thats idealistic, and i'm sure your instinct here will be practice one of the things which his idea of a neo-politic decrys, an assumption of bad faith.

I am coming to believe that if leftists did not have double standards they would have no standards at all.

I am coming to believe over generalized simplistic rhetoric is more common in the right then it is in left.

Lefty, I was with you until this. What I've quoted IS generalized, simplistic rhetoric. By saying that conservatives are more likely to use general, simple rhetoric you are in fact engaging in simplistic rhetoric.

As for this nonsense about Obama's drug use, as everyone has said, so what? The guy made a mistake when he was young, if you haven't then maybe you should run for President. The fact is that if Republicans resort to the desperate tactic of going after this guy personally they'll lose, badly. The more negative the Republicans get, the better Obama looks because his whole image is based on being above the Beltway garbage.

And I hate to beat a dead horse LordHelmet, but wow. No one laughed harder than I when Kennedy struggled to speak his native language, but the rest of this is just ridiculous. Breaking the law is no big deal? You act as though Obama is the first public figure to disrespect the law. The Republican controlled federal government has been breaking the law of the land for coming up on eight years now, and having debated with you for a while, I haven't noticed the same fervor in defense of the rule of law.

CP

Lefty, I was with you until this. What I've quoted IS generalized, simplistic rhetoric. By saying that conservatives are more likely to use general, simple rhetoric you are in fact engaging in simplistic rhetoric.

I've heard it come from both sides on the internet, but I feel as though i've seen it more from the right. This is a general impression i've gotten, and since I haven't been tallying, I can't prove it statistically. None of this is to state that I will begin judging people before I know them and not apply to people a case by case assessment as I should.

Really? What laws have been violated? Which charges have been brought?

I'm tired of these sort of unsubstantiated charges (like Bush's unproven drug use) bandied about like they are facts.

If Bush broke the law then IMPEACH him. If not, stop repeating that lie.

We have a system for determining who broke the law. And that system isn't based on what *you* say.

The Bush administration have a team of legal advisors who consul the president DAILY on the legality of their actions. And we have a congress (and judiciary) designed to keep presidential power in check.

What exactly do you mean by "federal government breaking the law"? Be specific. And then back up your assertion with some evidence. Just because you don't like the Patriot Act, or federal wiretapping, etc., doesn't make that "illegal".

It's legal if the legislature makes it such and the courts uphold the constitutionality of that legislation. Period.

Does Barack Obama have a chance to win the Presidential Election 2008?
I love reading the posts by those saying he doesn't have enough experience.
Compared to WHAT??? GWBs wealth of political experience before he fell into the White House?
Frankly, Obama is head and shoulders above anyone in the current administration. For starters, he has a brain that functions. Second, he is well read, intelligent, informed, he speaks in a clear tone, and he conveys an optimistic view of the future (again as opposed to GWB)..

How do you think he will weather the media machine’s attempts to smear him?

Well, according the the Repubs.. it's a left-biased media, so he should have no problems.

Would you vote for him?

At this point in time.. absolutely. Time for some fresh air.
But then, I have to be realistic. If I had a choice between anyone I see on the Right (unfortunately I would've voted for McCain had he not given in the to the neo-cons) and mickey mouse.. I'd vote for the mouse. At least there is a higher probability of him having a soul. Which is something I am not so sure about at this moment where the neo-cons are concerned.
Not exactly an edorsement of Barak Obama to be sure.
So, to clear that up, I have to say he definitely shows alot of promise to be a great leader.

LordHelmet this is a strawman, and an obvious one at that; point out to me where I mentioned George Bush in my last post. Okay, now point out where I mentioned his drug use. You can't can you? That's because I said: Did you just tell me to impeach the President? I'm flattered LordHelmet but I don't have that kind of pull.
While I do appreciate the 6th grade civics lesson [I was absent that day], I'd contend that what you describe, in THEORY is the case, while in practice is not. If Democrats held Congress and the Presidency, do you believe that they would check each other? And do you believe that the Republicans have more integrity and that they do?
Another strawman, point out where I mentioned either the USA PATRIOT ACT or the federal wiretapping laws in my last post. But if you really need me to remind you what the Republican Congress has been doing for the past eight years, we'll take a walk down memory lane.









Believe me, if you want more, there's plenty out there. The fact is that the Republicans can pretend to be the Party of "law and order" but unfortunately they have just as much respect for the law as the Democrats. One would only need to take a look at my signature to see just how many corrupt Republicans there are at the Federa level.

CP

Excellent, nice to hear you say this Lordhelmet.

I asume then, based on that diatribe, we will no longer hear you calling Ted kennedy a murderer or the like, as you are wont to do every few posts? Or does this 'innocent until proven guilty' comment only apply to people you personally approve of? I will be sure to cut and save this comment from you, to be brought out and shown to you next time you accuse or name people based on innuendo or opinion rather than legal fact.


Back on topic somewhat, I echo what has been said so far, Obama's ability and willingness to speak of and confront his past drug use it an advantage rather than a disadvantage in political terms. The right can hardly hit him on it considering it is a demon he has openly confronted and conquered.

None the less, I stick by my original statements, he is too inexprienced and young to make the run now. Run for governor, thenrun for office in 10 years. Assuming he plans his life accordingly and doesn't do anything blindly stupid like send sexual texts to underage boys, he should do very well.

Does Barack Obama have a chance to win the Presidential Election 2008?

No. He first has to be nominated by the Party and he may not get passed this step if his background is too sorted. On the other hand he speaks well and is a good looking guy. This goes a long way with the electorate.


How do you think he will weather the media machine’s attempts to smear him?
Well since he is a Dem he will by definition get breaks from a good part of the media. What comes to mind is as examples is Ms. Clinton and White Water and Teddy K in the death of Mary Jo.


Would you vote for him?
And ask for BIG government and TAXES, No thanks.