Predict what happens tomorrow.

Will the Democrats take the House and/or the Senate? What is the one thing that you see definitely changing after this election?

Some of my predictions for the election. If Democrats don't take the house or Senate they will scream and shout the Republicans cheated. Nancy Pelosi all but said that today.

I predict there will be alot of lawsuits being filed...

The house is over. The Dems are a virtual lock to capture it.

Indiana 8...Ellsworth
Arizona 8....Giffords
Colorado 7...Perlmutter
Iowa 1.....Braley
PA 7....Sestak
PA 10...Carney
NY 24...Arcuri
Ohio 18...Space
NC 11....Shuler
NM1...Madrid
Ind 2.... Donnelly
Tex 22....Lampson
FLA 16....Mahoney

In these 13 seats the democrat has either been up for months or is already a lock.

Current polls and consensus also show the democratic challenger up in
CT 4,5
FlA 13,22
IL 6
OH 15
Wis 8
NH 2
NY 29
NY 20
Kentucky 3

Right there is 21. Plus 5 or so more where the independent pols show the democrat up.

Plus with so many many toss-ups CT 2 Simmons v Courtnoy, CAL 11 Pombo v McNerny, Ken 4 Davis V Lucas, MIN 1 Gutknecht v Walz, MIN 6 Bachman v Wetterling, PA 6 Gerlach V Murphy, NC 8 hayes v Kissell, Wash 8 Reichart v Burner, Ohio 1 Chabot v Cranley, AZ 5 Hayworth v Mitchell, Colorado 4 Musgrave v Paccione...

I mean come on.

Independent polls in Idaho are showing Grant up on Sali. I saw a poll with Trauner up over Cubin in Wyoming.

King is in trouble in New York, Sue Kelly is down to Hall in the recent poll. Scott Kleeb and Maxine Moul are basically toss-up in Nebraska.

Boyda in Kansas v Ryun. Skinner v Knollenberg in Michigan. Seals and Kirk in Illinois. Leach in Iowa 1. Jean Schmidt was recently down to Wulsin in Ohio 2.

When someone looks at the polling on the races. It is virtually impossible to not see the fact that the dems will capture the house.

All those seats I listed are held by republicans and I could have named several more that independet polling has shown is very close.

The democrats have hardy anything to defend. Georgie 8,12 with Barrow and Marshall. Illinois 8 with Bean and maybe Indiana 7 with Carson. By the way in not one single poll shows the republican challenger up in any democrat held seat in the house currently. Not 1.


The democrats are assured of winning the house. The race is over. The democrats have already locked it up. It's gone.

In the senate anywhere from 3-6 will be the outcome. Late momentum is on McCaskill and Webb....surveyusa has both up solid and Survey USA outperfomed Rasmussen, Zogby etc etc etc in regards to individual races in 04.

The Dems will also capture 6-9 governor mansions as well.


The Dems gain 24 seats in the house...and I am being conservative in that. 13 leans dem and 23 toss-ups exist. Plus another 20 or so that lean republican and are still technically in play.

Rollcall, realclealpolitics, electionprojection, electoral-vote, electionprediction.us, Sabato, Cook all relate this. Even conservatives like Barone, Novak, Barnes ect etc concede the house is gone.

I predict dems win 5 senate seats.

Put me down for 3-5 Dem additions in the Senate [my guess is 3] and 15-22 Dem addition in the house [my guess is the higher end of that]. Either way, Dems will have the House and the Republicans will have a slim lead in the Senate.

CP

I predict that the Democrats will make gains in both houses, but fail to capture the majority in both cases, which will be unfortunate.
I also predict that because of that failure, the lawsuits will fly.

Well the Democrats gaining the house is now a foregone conclusion. Even the Republican party admits that in their internal tracking polls. The senate is the real battleground. It is still POSSIBLE for the Democrats to take the senate, but it would require them pulling a win out of all three dead-heat races, and winning a race where they are only up by 2 points, so not very likely. I stick to my prediction of +20 seats for the democrats in the house (though according to the latest polls that may be conservative) and +4 seats for the democrats in the senate.

As for lawsuits flying, I see demands for recounts to be sure, but I suspect if lawsuits fly they will be launched equally from both sides. The Democrats hold no lock on litigation when it comes to these issues; the republicans do it just as often.


As an aside, I'm still waiting for an answer to my question to Lordhelmet: his insulting predictions of what happens if the Democrats lose are a matter of record in many posts of his, what does he think will happen among republicans if the Republicans lose?

My magic 8 ball says 4 seats in the Senate and 23 in the house (but I picked 15-22 in the poll)

I dont know if this is real or not to be honest.

polls on polls

MSNBC is calling 32 pickups for the Democrats in the House and 3 in the Senate with four still in play (MN, MO, TN and VA).

Ther puzzle is complete. The Associated Press and NBC News have called the U. S. Senate seat in Virginia for Jim Webb.

http://www.wdbj7.com/Global/story.asp?S=5653375

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/

A recount in Tennessee gives also the seat to Harold Ford, Jr.

I'm joking about Ford, a bright young man who will be back, but Webb is for real.