Full Version: Poisoned by Polonium
Former Russian Spy poisoned...
Alexander Litvinenko was a former Russian spy (mainly active ifor post-Communist Russia) living in London. He was taken to hospital last week suffering from the effects of some unspecified posion. He died on Thursday.
The poison was identified yesterday at a press conference as Polonium 210, a highly toxic (from the Wikipedia article, it is "Weight for weight... approximately 2.5 × 1011 times as toxic as hydrocyanic acid") radioactive element which can only really be synthesised in large quantities at a few nuclear laboratories around the world.
Under Vladimir Putin, Russia is already on public record as being willing to use assassination in other countries as a tool of state ends (see here)
They are also flexing their economic muscles by using the state-owned oil & gas company, GazProm, to in effect blackmail their former satellite states into subservience (the Ukraine & Belarus have both seen massive price increases in oil and natural gas shortly after their leaderships have said critical things abot the Putin administration and their cronies), and to build close (too close) ties to Western European nations that are eager to find non-Islamic sources to meet their energy needs.
Meanwhile, because of their struggle against Muslim Chechens and their terrorist wings, Putin-era Russia is generally seen by the US, UK and others as a fellow traveller and ally in the War on Terror.
What do you think is going on in the Litvinenko case?
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
Alexander Litvinenko was a former Russian spy (mainly active ifor post-Communist Russia) living in London. He was taken to hospital last week suffering from the effects of some unspecified posion. He died on Thursday.
QUOTE
Mr Litvinenko fled to Britain six years ago after revealing an alleged plot to murder Boris Berezovsky, a multimillionaire businessman also in exile in the UK.
The poison was identified yesterday at a press conference as Polonium 210, a highly toxic (from the Wikipedia article, it is "Weight for weight... approximately 2.5 × 1011 times as toxic as hydrocyanic acid") radioactive element which can only really be synthesised in large quantities at a few nuclear laboratories around the world.
Under Vladimir Putin, Russia is already on public record as being willing to use assassination in other countries as a tool of state ends (see here)
They are also flexing their economic muscles by using the state-owned oil & gas company, GazProm, to in effect blackmail their former satellite states into subservience (the Ukraine & Belarus have both seen massive price increases in oil and natural gas shortly after their leaderships have said critical things abot the Putin administration and their cronies), and to build close (too close) ties to Western European nations that are eager to find non-Islamic sources to meet their energy needs.
Meanwhile, because of their struggle against Muslim Chechens and their terrorist wings, Putin-era Russia is generally seen by the US, UK and others as a fellow traveller and ally in the War on Terror.
What do you think is going on in the Litvinenko case?
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
QUOTE
What do you think is going on in the Litvinenko case?
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
I have no idea who killed this man or why. Even reading about it makes me wonder at the methods used and what could possibly be the need to kill some one in this way. It seems a horribly vindictive method of assassination to poison some one with a radioactive material and the only reasons for it that I can think of are either a terrible need for revenge or the wish to send a clear message to some other obscure actor off stage. Though there is of course the possibility that whom ever did this is simply evil, I don't think this fits the type of substance used nor the public profile of the killing.
I'm most inclined to believe that a Russian secret government organ has carried out a deliberate attack against one of Russia's lesser enemies in bid to send a clear message to its more potent enemies. This fits with my understanding of the Russian mentality and the current Russian fondness for muscular politics which of late has seen Russia trying to regain its former position within what it considers its sphere of influence.
Britain, indeed all of Europe, should react with all possible haste to make it clear to the Russians that they will not be allowed to simply take up the Soviet legacy and if this means a confrontation then so be it.
What do you think is going on in the Litvinenko case?
He broke the spy code in Russia- he blabbed about the goverment- they killed him- easy enough to figure out there! This is typical and historic behavior in russia. Or rather, in any state seeking to preserve it's secrets.
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
Occams razor- Russia
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How could it react would be the better question? Russia holds all the cards over Europe right now, and GB and Europe knows it. Europe needs an ally when the Muslim/Europe culture war heats up to a shooting war- which I think it will anyway.
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
Once again- what is the Us going to do? We are stretched too thin to start a cold war and they know it.
He broke the spy code in Russia- he blabbed about the goverment- they killed him- easy enough to figure out there! This is typical and historic behavior in russia. Or rather, in any state seeking to preserve it's secrets.
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
Occams razor- Russia
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How could it react would be the better question? Russia holds all the cards over Europe right now, and GB and Europe knows it. Europe needs an ally when the Muslim/Europe culture war heats up to a shooting war- which I think it will anyway.
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
Once again- what is the Us going to do? We are stretched too thin to start a cold war and they know it.
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation implies) or some other actor?
Because of the involvement of Polonium-210, it certainly leads one to question the involvement of the FSB since it requires a great amount of sophistication to produce in the quantity that was used in the murder of Litvinenko, but I'm not prepared to point the finger at the Russian state...at least not yet. Money can buy a lot of things, and in Russia there are a large number of shady connections between politics, business, and the mafia. Litvenenko has been involved with all of them at some point or another.
It's been written that Levininko was investigating the murder of Anna Politkovskaya, and it's possible that he was about to stumble on some information that he wasn't supposed to have. Whomever her murderers may have been (and there are several theories) may have been involved. He's also made some pretty big accusations against the Russian state, but the publication of those accusations hasn't lead to much effect. Wouldn't murdering the man in such a high profile fashion give more credence to his claims? I'm just not sure about that theory. Time will tell...maybe.
Because of the involvement of Polonium-210, it certainly leads one to question the involvement of the FSB since it requires a great amount of sophistication to produce in the quantity that was used in the murder of Litvinenko, but I'm not prepared to point the finger at the Russian state...at least not yet. Money can buy a lot of things, and in Russia there are a large number of shady connections between politics, business, and the mafia. Litvenenko has been involved with all of them at some point or another.
It's been written that Levininko was investigating the murder of Anna Politkovskaya, and it's possible that he was about to stumble on some information that he wasn't supposed to have. Whomever her murderers may have been (and there are several theories) may have been involved. He's also made some pretty big accusations against the Russian state, but the publication of those accusations hasn't lead to much effect. Wouldn't murdering the man in such a high profile fashion give more credence to his claims? I'm just not sure about that theory. Time will tell...maybe.
I have been following this story on a more human level in as much as I was following his story. I hadn't thought out a lot of the geopolitical implications during that time. I suspect in large part because this is a localized spat gone very ugly. Clearly this assasination is a message.
That or the sushi in London has major problems!
That or the sushi in London has major problems!
What do you think is going on in the Litvinenko case?
I don’t know the extent of threat that this person posed to any particular person or organization or state actually. I also am not sure of whatever this person may have already done to have this occur to him.
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
From what I know about how some assassinations before have occurred under guidance from the former USSR this does sound akin to such. I really cant say of course though, it may have been fellow agents still living some personal war, overall I don’t know.
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
I think maybe more domestic counter intelligence around this case may come to exist, but overall I don’t see anything to serious overall coming to bear from such.
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
Pretty much the same as i typed above. Overall again it was not like it was some agent that was a natural citizen or patriot in the first place, and again it was one person or has been one person so far, so I don’t think the reaction will be that big overall to such, it could add to any fires though that may be starting up, that’s for sure. I would think though that if such was true, it would be part of the operation and such a murder overall may have been conducted in a different fashion. then again it could be a message to other like persons maybe, again overall who knows.
I don’t know the extent of threat that this person posed to any particular person or organization or state actually. I also am not sure of whatever this person may have already done to have this occur to him.
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
From what I know about how some assassinations before have occurred under guidance from the former USSR this does sound akin to such. I really cant say of course though, it may have been fellow agents still living some personal war, overall I don’t know.
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
I think maybe more domestic counter intelligence around this case may come to exist, but overall I don’t see anything to serious overall coming to bear from such.
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
Pretty much the same as i typed above. Overall again it was not like it was some agent that was a natural citizen or patriot in the first place, and again it was one person or has been one person so far, so I don’t think the reaction will be that big overall to such, it could add to any fires though that may be starting up, that’s for sure. I would think though that if such was true, it would be part of the operation and such a murder overall may have been conducted in a different fashion. then again it could be a message to other like persons maybe, again overall who knows.
QUOTE(Julian @ Nov 25 2006, 07:23 AM) 
What do you think is going on in the Litvinenko case?
Who might be responsible - the Russian state (as Litvinenko's dead-bed accusation inmplies) or some other actor?
How should the British government react to an assassination on it's own soil?
How would the USA react had this happened in, say, New York City or Wasington DC?
A simple question... what did Russia, and Putin personally, gain by removing Mr. Litvinenko? The answer is nothing. They got themselves truckloads of bad press in the world media - at the time when Russia desperately tries to gain access to the WTO. That's about it in the "gains" column.
There're dozens of former KGB agents who emigrated to the West. Litvinenko wasn't even the most prominent one - Oleg Kalugin is much more famous and he had a significantly higher rank, too.
Do I think Russians are in the business of physically eliminating their enemies? No doubt. I just don't believe they would lose so much to dispose of Litvinenko, a relatively minor figure.
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