QUOTE(Blackstone @ Dec 1 2006, 10:47 PM)

Actually I stated that people were viewing the question of where to go from here in Iraq as a plebescite on Bush. Reading is essential.
Thank you for your advice. Actually, if you insist on being semantic, you asserted that the question of whether or not victory and a military solution in Iraq was obtainable is being used as a plebiscite on Bush.
And as I answered, I think exactly the opposite is the case, that its the failure and lack of any viable military solution that reflects badly on Bush jr, a fact which was borne out by every poll taken before and after the election.
QUOTE
So the country was fully behind the war effort until it started going badly? That's not how I remember it. What you're describing is really just a chicken/egg effect. One feeds off the other.
Firstly, no not the entire country, but a majority of it. A february 17th 2004 Gallup poll showed that 57% of Americans were in favour of invading Iraq, with only 38% opposed.
Now, 56% of Americans believe Bush jr made a mistake in invading Iraq, and 63% are in favour of bringing all US troops home within the next 12 months. So what made the difference here? What reversed the numbers? Is it the media and their evil habit of reporting the news? Or might it just be the real events that they are reporting which are making the difference?
We NOW know that the Iraq war made Al Qaeda stronger, weakened the war on Terror, was never actually connected to Al Qaeda at all, and has left 24,000 US casualties, cost about $600 billion US dollars, and has solved nothing whatsoever. The bloodshed in Iraq is worse than it has ever been, the insurgency is stronger day to day, and the Iraqi government is utterly powerless. I think it might just be THOSE facts that turned people against the war, rather than the media reporting those facts.
As I concluded my last post by saying: if you truly believe 'honourable withdrawal' is not a valid option, all you need do is suggest a better one. I not you did not do so.
QUOTE
They don't have to peruse Howard Dean's speeches in order to know that we're divided on this issue. Are you really trying to argue that they have utterly no clue of the political situation here? That for all they know, the American people are 100% behind the effort and that there's no sign of faltering on our part?
Firstly, I suspect a lot of them have NO idea about the political situation in the US. Some do I'm sure. Secondly, no that’s not what I was arguing. I'm arguing their knowledge of the internal politics of the US is limited, but far more importantly, that they don't care. They are fighting the US for very simple practical reasons on the ground, same with every insurgency.
As I said (again) if they are getting a boost because they are winning, I suspect that boost comes simply because they realise they are winning, and they can see for themselves the ineffectiveness of the US forces, rather than the fact that some people back in the US might see the same facts and think the same thing.
Do you disagree? Do you think the US IS winning?
QUOTE
Lots of things need to be questioned. Questioning strategy isn't what encourages the enemy. What encourages him is when we throw our hands up in the air and keep saying "we'll never make it, they're too strong for us, we should give up."
Then I repeat myself. Provide a better option. Failing that, then the fact that people are saying "we'll never accomplish our mission, they're too strong for us, we should withdraw" might just be true. Why is it so impossible for you to consider that very obvious likelyhood? The US is losing in Iraq, that isn't debatable. If you have a plan to turn that all around, one which is possible) then I'm all ears.
You said ‘previous use of an argument in an invalid manner does not invalidate it’. Well, that’s true enough. But it does bring the argument into question if used again in the same manner, and it does require that the argument be justified and evidenced. So have you any evidence that the strength of the Insurgency in Iraq waxes or wanes according to US popular opinion on the war? Any at all?
QUOTE
But where did he say or write anything to the effect that a stable Iraq is essentially impossible?
He didn't as I said. he said a stable Iraq under the current regime may be impossible. And considering the source, that pretty damning condemnation. As to making a stable Iraq possible full stop, well I personally think it is impossible, at least, Iraq as it exists now in the form the US desires. But like I said, its easy to prove me wrong, just tell me how the US can accomplish this miracle.
QUOTE
I'd have to say it's a perfectly legitimate default assumption to say that they were staged. Sadr had the means and the opportunity, and it's very much a standard M.O. of cult-of-personality-type slimebags like him.
I disagree. I think given the polling date we have on the opinions of most Iraqis at the moment, it is quite legitimate to assume that they would cheer the US being forced to withdraw its presence by their militia leader. However thi point is moot. We each have a news report, we can't disprove the veracity of one or the other, so lets drop it. Besides, as I said in my last post (again) its irrelevant, the fact of the withdrawal itself is the significant issue as it shows clearly how incapable the Iraqi government is of governing.
QUOTE
So winning an election is a sign of powerlessness? No one's clueless enough to think that a vastly unpopular policy is going to hold sway indefinitely in the United States.
Which would be a valid argument, if it were true. However as I have pointed out, the war was NOT a vastly unpopular policy at the beginning. Its only when it started to be revealed as a complete debacle that public opinion (quite rightly) switched against it. The media did not make the war fail and people turn against it, rather the war failed because of Bush Jr. and the administration, the media reported the failure, and thus the people turned against it. By the time the election came around, the war was obviously being lost, and no amount of right-wing pundits shouting "But they never report the GOOD news! We don’t HAVE any good news, and we can't give you any, but we're still blaming the 'Liberal' media..." could make a difference.
Its a pretty simple equation.
-Bush jr goes to war. People don't really understand, as they thought we were fighting Al Qaeda (remember those guys who attacked the US?) but they bought into the president's appeal and a majority went along with it.
-Bush Jr's pretexts for war all turn out to be false (lets assume errors rather than lies).
-Real enemy, Al qaeda, gets stronger due to Iraq war.
-Americans start dying a lot, money is being poured into a hole, Bush Jr gives up on any pretence of 'reconstructing' Iraq, the Insurgents get stronger and the new Iraq government fails even the most basic tests of governance.
-People turn against the war.
Thats it. Given the above facts, of COURSE people dissent, as I mentioned in my last post (again) given the situation it was their DUTY to dissent. But importantly, MOST importantly, the dissent was an effect, NOT a cause.
Blackstone Let me ask you this. If the poll numbers were back to 2003 ranges, if 60% of the people were STILL for the war, do you really think the war would be going any better? Would the number of attacks per day NOT be increasing every single day week after week? Would the Iraq government suddenly have the will and strength to govern? Would the Iraq police not be riddled with insurgents and actively helping the militia death squads? Would 24,000 US troops not be casualties of war?