Full Version: Hezbollah in Lebanon part II
I've been watching the news coming out of Lebanon recently. Things certainly haven't settled down though the media isn't as interested now that the bombing has stopped, even as the stage is being set for a major bloody confrontation...we're sure to be treated to full news coverage when things get really violent and most will probably get the impression that it just appeared out of nowhere.
While we were sitting down to Thanksgiving dinner, half a million showed up to the funeral of the [url=http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35580]
assassinated[/url] Christian leader Pierre Gemayel. This was as much a show of solidarity as a funeral, complete with signs advocating the end of war, condemnations of Hizzbolah, ect. It was significant because Hizzbolah had scheduled an anti-government protest for that day but cancelled it due to this large showing. But it didn't take long....
Now, Hizzbolah seems to be attempting a type of coup by forcing a government shut down. It has criticized Siniora's cabinet over what it perceives as a failure to back Hezbollah during the July-August war with Israel. "The government was negligent during the war. That's why we want a national unity government," Ali Aboud, from south Lebanon, told Reuters. "We're here to bring down the government. We, the resistance, don't want any influence from the United States," opposition supporter Najwa Bouhamdan, 41, said. The message is pretty clear. A government that doesn't support Hizzbolah won't be tolerated. It is essentially Syrian takeover by proxy.
Questions for debate:
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
2) What should the US do if anything?
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
While we were sitting down to Thanksgiving dinner, half a million showed up to the funeral of the [url=http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=35580]
assassinated[/url] Christian leader Pierre Gemayel. This was as much a show of solidarity as a funeral, complete with signs advocating the end of war, condemnations of Hizzbolah, ect. It was significant because Hizzbolah had scheduled an anti-government protest for that day but cancelled it due to this large showing. But it didn't take long....
Now, Hizzbolah seems to be attempting a type of coup by forcing a government shut down. It has criticized Siniora's cabinet over what it perceives as a failure to back Hezbollah during the July-August war with Israel. "The government was negligent during the war. That's why we want a national unity government," Ali Aboud, from south Lebanon, told Reuters. "We're here to bring down the government. We, the resistance, don't want any influence from the United States," opposition supporter Najwa Bouhamdan, 41, said. The message is pretty clear. A government that doesn't support Hizzbolah won't be tolerated. It is essentially Syrian takeover by proxy.
Questions for debate:
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
2) What should the US do if anything?
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
It looks increasingly like Hezbollah is going to take over the Lebanese government while the world stands watching.
QUOTE
On the media level, the campaign unleashed by HizbAllah widened on al Manar TV and was supported by Syria’s press and audiovisual as well as Iran’s. Al Jazeera is backing the crumbling of the Lebanese Government by “projecting” that the cabinet will fall, despite indicators that the popular majority in Lebanon backs it. But the most interesting development is the gradual editorial twist in most of the news agencies distributing information around the world indirectly towards HizbAllah. In fact, the choice of words in the reports issued by Reuters, AP and UPI indicates that they are increasingly portraying the HizbAllah’s campaign as “an opposition movement against a Government refusing to accept its demands.” These mother ships of international media, that feeds thousands of newspapers and audiovisual networks around the world, have for example pushed the number of the demonstrators as “close to 800,000 persons,” or as they put it “one quarter of Lebanon’s population.” While in reality, researchers in Lebanon, measuring the space these demonstrations took place in, cannot absorb more than 250,000 persons. A quarter of a million people is a large number but compared to the 1.5 million people gathered by the Cedars Revolution indicates clearly to social demographers, that HizbAllah, with the support of Syria, Iran, the radical Palestinians, cannot muster a popular support greater than one sixth of the majority.
But many sectors in the international media are tilting towards producing pro-HizbAllah’s trends. A reporter for Time wrote that “what he saw was a reverse of the Cedars Revolution,” using words uttered by the organizers of the pro-Iranian move. “It is not so difficult to understand,” said a human rights activist in Beirut, “HizbAllah has done a great job in influencing many correspondents on the ground. With Iranian logistics, its operatives can provide all what a journalist can dream of. Unfortunately also,” said the NGO observer, “many HizbAllah media cadres have found their way into being recruited by some media. You wouldn’t believe where these infiltrations have reached,” he said. Bloggers in Beirut have begun to monitor the HizbAllah’s penetration of international media as the reporting has been drifting towards promoting the pro-Iranian militia.
But many sectors in the international media are tilting towards producing pro-HizbAllah’s trends. A reporter for Time wrote that “what he saw was a reverse of the Cedars Revolution,” using words uttered by the organizers of the pro-Iranian move. “It is not so difficult to understand,” said a human rights activist in Beirut, “HizbAllah has done a great job in influencing many correspondents on the ground. With Iranian logistics, its operatives can provide all what a journalist can dream of. Unfortunately also,” said the NGO observer, “many HizbAllah media cadres have found their way into being recruited by some media. You wouldn’t believe where these infiltrations have reached,” he said. Bloggers in Beirut have begun to monitor the HizbAllah’s penetration of international media as the reporting has been drifting towards promoting the pro-Iranian militia.
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
A whole boat load of misery. All those green headscarf wearing fanatics and jihadi's will never rest until they have the power they crave. They'll murder and kill every one in their way until finally they have either cowed every one into submission or forced another civil war, which is much of the same thing anyway.
Nasrallah and his Hizb'Allah gang will never rest, because after all they're on a mission from God, and it doesn't matter who they have to murder, nor how many, to get what they want. Women, children, any one and every one is expendable in the execution of the divine will (as interpreted by the usual crowd of bearded nutters and their black clad women)
2) What should the US do if anything?
Lend every assistance possible to the pro democracy forces of Lebanon by not charging into the fore. Stay in the back ground and remain deceptively aloof. The worst thing the USA can do is allow GW Bush to make declerations of any kind.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
Maintain the peace and stop whininng about low flying Israeli aircraft whilst the real enemies of democracy gather their strength for a take over.
On second thoughts, what difference does it make what the UN does? The UN organisation has been corrupted to much to be of any use to any one but those willing to abuse it. It has no democratic value what so ever nor any desire to promote democracy. It is a farce.
A whole boat load of misery. All those green headscarf wearing fanatics and jihadi's will never rest until they have the power they crave. They'll murder and kill every one in their way until finally they have either cowed every one into submission or forced another civil war, which is much of the same thing anyway.
Nasrallah and his Hizb'Allah gang will never rest, because after all they're on a mission from God, and it doesn't matter who they have to murder, nor how many, to get what they want. Women, children, any one and every one is expendable in the execution of the divine will (as interpreted by the usual crowd of bearded nutters and their black clad women)
2) What should the US do if anything?
Lend every assistance possible to the pro democracy forces of Lebanon by not charging into the fore. Stay in the back ground and remain deceptively aloof. The worst thing the USA can do is allow GW Bush to make declerations of any kind.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
Maintain the peace and stop whininng about low flying Israeli aircraft whilst the real enemies of democracy gather their strength for a take over.
On second thoughts, what difference does it make what the UN does? The UN organisation has been corrupted to much to be of any use to any one but those willing to abuse it. It has no democratic value what so ever nor any desire to promote democracy. It is a farce.
the counter-terrorism blog seems to be a bit biased- do you agree Mrs P? I am not being a smart alec- but the "about" page lists it as a christian based org, am I correct?
My reason for asking this question is this- we keep hearing that "syria" is behind this or that- but we have been lied to before about Syria this and Syria that (that is where they sent the WMDs- remember?
)-
So I have to ask- it appears, from what I have read, that Hezbollah has had a HUGE resurgence in popularity after Israel attacked Lebanon.
The article makes it appear that they are in the minority and shoving thier beliefs on a majority- but I wonder if that is true? Not saying it is, not saying it is not-
In the first round of the elections, the turnout was only 28%. In the second round of the elections which Hezbollah and Amal easily won, the turnout was between 43 and 55%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2005
My personal thinking, not sure if I am right though, is that the invasion energized the anti-US and anti-Israel moderates to become radicals, and the radicals into leaders.
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
I believe Israels actions, right or wrong, have radicalized many lebonese, and probably turned a great deal many poeple from being anti-Hezbollah to pro-Hezbollah. I believe that the west's actions and Israels actions have made it less stable in that regioni- lord, as if wasn't unstable enough- not calling the actions right or wrong, just saying what I think the end result is- I believe Lebanon will become more like Iran and Syria, and will willingly accept Syria's and Iran's help and influence.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Moif- I am thinking that "pro-democracy", if you are talking about a free and fair election- WILL NOT elect the "good guys" you are thinking about- Lebanon's northern Christians coalition goverment was seen as ineffectual in repulsing the Israel attack- which, of course, is true- Iraeli army is a first class standing military, the Lebanon forces are not.
I do think the rest of your statement is correct- GW needs to keep his silly trap shut if he want's any thing to go the US way in this area. Probably letting his dady and baker do the heavy lifting in this arena is smart.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
Moif- you keep saying "pro-democracy"- but, in a democracy, the majority leads the goverment, and hopefully, takes the minorities concerns to goverment as well- otherwise, civil war- which Lebanon has had for a couple decades.
So- if a free and fair election, makes, say, Nasrallah PM, isn't it ANTI-democratic to try to force him out of power? Hamas destroyed thier opposition in free and fair elections in Palestine- and, it appears, because the Abbas goverment was ineffective in dealing with Israel. I am thinking that the poeple of Lebanon do not share the same world view as westerners in blaming the poeple they live with, rather, blaming the west and Israel for thier problems, right or wrong.
The UN should live by it's mandate and the negotiated cease fire, and "whine" about ANY side's violation of the agreement, INCLUDING "israels low flying jets"- it is funny- becuase I am betting that the Lebanonese are thinking the UN is a puppet of the US, NOT on "thier side" . The UN get's it from every side it seems.
My reason for asking this question is this- we keep hearing that "syria" is behind this or that- but we have been lied to before about Syria this and Syria that (that is where they sent the WMDs- remember?
)-So I have to ask- it appears, from what I have read, that Hezbollah has had a HUGE resurgence in popularity after Israel attacked Lebanon.
The article makes it appear that they are in the minority and shoving thier beliefs on a majority- but I wonder if that is true? Not saying it is, not saying it is not-
In the first round of the elections, the turnout was only 28%. In the second round of the elections which Hezbollah and Amal easily won, the turnout was between 43 and 55%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_general_election,_2005
My personal thinking, not sure if I am right though, is that the invasion energized the anti-US and anti-Israel moderates to become radicals, and the radicals into leaders.
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
I believe Israels actions, right or wrong, have radicalized many lebonese, and probably turned a great deal many poeple from being anti-Hezbollah to pro-Hezbollah. I believe that the west's actions and Israels actions have made it less stable in that regioni- lord, as if wasn't unstable enough- not calling the actions right or wrong, just saying what I think the end result is- I believe Lebanon will become more like Iran and Syria, and will willingly accept Syria's and Iran's help and influence.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Moif- I am thinking that "pro-democracy", if you are talking about a free and fair election- WILL NOT elect the "good guys" you are thinking about- Lebanon's northern Christians coalition goverment was seen as ineffectual in repulsing the Israel attack- which, of course, is true- Iraeli army is a first class standing military, the Lebanon forces are not.
I do think the rest of your statement is correct- GW needs to keep his silly trap shut if he want's any thing to go the US way in this area. Probably letting his dady and baker do the heavy lifting in this arena is smart.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
Moif- you keep saying "pro-democracy"- but, in a democracy, the majority leads the goverment, and hopefully, takes the minorities concerns to goverment as well- otherwise, civil war- which Lebanon has had for a couple decades.
So- if a free and fair election, makes, say, Nasrallah PM, isn't it ANTI-democratic to try to force him out of power? Hamas destroyed thier opposition in free and fair elections in Palestine- and, it appears, because the Abbas goverment was ineffective in dealing with Israel. I am thinking that the poeple of Lebanon do not share the same world view as westerners in blaming the poeple they live with, rather, blaming the west and Israel for thier problems, right or wrong.
The UN should live by it's mandate and the negotiated cease fire, and "whine" about ANY side's violation of the agreement, INCLUDING "israels low flying jets"- it is funny- becuase I am betting that the Lebanonese are thinking the UN is a puppet of the US, NOT on "thier side" . The UN get's it from every side it seems.
CR.
As 'dear old Adolf' showed the world, getting elected, even by an impressive majority doesn't make you pro democratic. It only puts you into power. Its what you do when you have the power that counts. Do you honestly believe the jihadi's will ever relinquish power once they have it?
The Palestinian elections are a case in point. Two powerful terrorist factions vying for power whilst the pro democratic parties are left in the margins. Once a jihadist group comes to power, it will never let it go unless to another such group. Its not democracy when every one votes due to their social obligation to support the local thug ...or else.
That Nasrallah creep will never let go of the reins once he is in the driving seat. He won't. He is the new Arafat, Only better, improved. More Radical and religious. He must be right after all; he is a 'pious and virtuous man of God'.
I'm telling you now, the people of Lebanon will never get rid of him unless some one murders him or his health fails and kills him. There is nothing remotely democratic about the 'Party of God'.
As 'dear old Adolf' showed the world, getting elected, even by an impressive majority doesn't make you pro democratic. It only puts you into power. Its what you do when you have the power that counts. Do you honestly believe the jihadi's will ever relinquish power once they have it?
The Palestinian elections are a case in point. Two powerful terrorist factions vying for power whilst the pro democratic parties are left in the margins. Once a jihadist group comes to power, it will never let it go unless to another such group. Its not democracy when every one votes due to their social obligation to support the local thug ...or else.
That Nasrallah creep will never let go of the reins once he is in the driving seat. He won't. He is the new Arafat, Only better, improved. More Radical and religious. He must be right after all; he is a 'pious and virtuous man of God'.
I'm telling you now, the people of Lebanon will never get rid of him unless some one murders him or his health fails and kills him. There is nothing remotely democratic about the 'Party of God'.
I hear what you are saying Moif- and don't completely disagree, but I think it is more of a mindset of the grass roots Lebanese citizen, or cultural, rather than an orchestrated takeover like Hitler- and I don't have a single problem comparing Nasrallah to Hitler either, just to be clear- I am not in favor of religious goverments anywhere, to be clear as well- but, I don't believe Nasrallah can sieze OR hold power without pretty hard core support from a majority in that country- I have been looking at pics of the Hezbollah supporters in Bierut surrounding the goverment offices and demanding a change in the US backed goverment. US backed anything in the world now is just about a reason to NOT support a goverment that is tied to the US, by most of the world's thinking 
-
What I am saying is this- Hezbollah is popularly supported in Lebanon, and, if that popular support is in the majority- and elects Nasrallah, and continues to have free and fair elections after coming to power- which, I think, unless they go to civil war again, they will, considering the diversity of that country of sunni vs shi-ite muslims, and christian north, I don't think Nasrallah can take AND hold power over anything but his own geographical sphere of influence- BUT if the lebonese goverment and it's poeple are radicalized due to Israel's incursion into Lebanon, right or wrong, then Nasrallah only has to be a competant leader, and provide some stability in that country, without forcing the christian north into war, to keep and hold power DEMOCRATICALLY- many have declared Nasrallah evil- but no one has really called him incompetant or stupid, or not recognizing the needs of his power base and his need for some minority support to legitimize his ascendency to power.
I mean, just because you and I don't like the voters choice in Lebanon, if it is Nasrallah, doesn't neccesarily mean he has the power and support to really be a strongman like the Saddam or House of Saud models, or Mushureff in Pakistan. Those countries are quite different than Lebanon in factional fighting- do you agree? So, if he is freely and fairly elected, and continues that trend through need of support to hold power in the entire country- it is indeed democratic, no matter how we feel about Islam or Hezbollah.
I have always been suspicouis of ANY religious figure seeking govermental powers and authority, and I agree with your views completely regarding middle eastern culture and Islamic thougt- especially in the classh between Islam and the liberal democracies of Europe. That being said- the European liberal democracy and the American representitive democracy IS NOT the only form of democracy that expresses the will of the poeple.
And Adolph was not elected by a majority- I believe ever- I think the largest % of the vote he ever recieved was around 45%
- What I am saying is this- Hezbollah is popularly supported in Lebanon, and, if that popular support is in the majority- and elects Nasrallah, and continues to have free and fair elections after coming to power- which, I think, unless they go to civil war again, they will, considering the diversity of that country of sunni vs shi-ite muslims, and christian north, I don't think Nasrallah can take AND hold power over anything but his own geographical sphere of influence- BUT if the lebonese goverment and it's poeple are radicalized due to Israel's incursion into Lebanon, right or wrong, then Nasrallah only has to be a competant leader, and provide some stability in that country, without forcing the christian north into war, to keep and hold power DEMOCRATICALLY- many have declared Nasrallah evil- but no one has really called him incompetant or stupid, or not recognizing the needs of his power base and his need for some minority support to legitimize his ascendency to power.
I mean, just because you and I don't like the voters choice in Lebanon, if it is Nasrallah, doesn't neccesarily mean he has the power and support to really be a strongman like the Saddam or House of Saud models, or Mushureff in Pakistan. Those countries are quite different than Lebanon in factional fighting- do you agree? So, if he is freely and fairly elected, and continues that trend through need of support to hold power in the entire country- it is indeed democratic, no matter how we feel about Islam or Hezbollah.
I have always been suspicouis of ANY religious figure seeking govermental powers and authority, and I agree with your views completely regarding middle eastern culture and Islamic thougt- especially in the classh between Islam and the liberal democracies of Europe. That being said- the European liberal democracy and the American representitive democracy IS NOT the only form of democracy that expresses the will of the poeple.
And Adolph was not elected by a majority- I believe ever- I think the largest % of the vote he ever recieved was around 45%
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
Only if they manage to kill each other off. Lebanon is going down into another civil war similar to the last. Instead of the PLO setting it off it's Iran and Syria.
I predict that 25% of the population will be killed before it's over and perhaps another 25% as refugees.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Stay as far away a possible. Lebanon has worked very hard to make this civil war happen. Now they are going to have it. Their total refusal to maintain any of their country is the main cause. Once this starts expect Syria to become an Islamic theocracy.
Don't walk, run.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now. You mean the terrorist protection agency? Give me a break the UN not only can not do anything, with the Arabs controlling the organization they will do nothing productive. The largest body of troops there are the French and they will not fight Hezbollah since they are worried that anything they do will cause the local Arabs in France to attack again.
I think that Lebanon deserves exactly what they are about to receive.
Only if they manage to kill each other off. Lebanon is going down into another civil war similar to the last. Instead of the PLO setting it off it's Iran and Syria.
I predict that 25% of the population will be killed before it's over and perhaps another 25% as refugees.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Stay as far away a possible. Lebanon has worked very hard to make this civil war happen. Now they are going to have it. Their total refusal to maintain any of their country is the main cause. Once this starts expect Syria to become an Islamic theocracy.
Don't walk, run.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now. You mean the terrorist protection agency? Give me a break the UN not only can not do anything, with the Arabs controlling the organization they will do nothing productive. The largest body of troops there are the French and they will not fight Hezbollah since they are worried that anything they do will cause the local Arabs in France to attack again.
I think that Lebanon deserves exactly what they are about to receive.
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
The only hope that exists for Lebanese are the people who are making the largest efforts to rebuild the country. The Hezbollah. Unfortunately this will prompt a strike by Israeli opposition forces. This is a question of not if but when.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Place an arms embargo that blankets the entire region period. Arm Israel? Emphatic no, exclaimation point, underscored and punctuated with a ten pound sledge no. The best thing for the world is to afford Hezbollah the opportunity to screw up and discredit themselves. Should they attain power and incur a defensive response from Israel they will lose alot of their newfound credibility.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
The UN should have as large a force as they can assemble. Not withdraw like the Canadians from Golan Heights.
It has become obvious there were too many camaras, ipods, and certified eyeballs recording the use of such questionable practices like cluster bombs, bunker-busting bombs and chemical weapons. The removal of international tourists was the first step. The abandonment of the UN was the second. Now the groundwork is laid for a large attack by banning the reporting of "unique" weapons within Lebanon.
The presence of UN forces should be present and mandatory on both sides of the fence.
The only hope that exists for Lebanese are the people who are making the largest efforts to rebuild the country. The Hezbollah. Unfortunately this will prompt a strike by Israeli opposition forces. This is a question of not if but when.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Place an arms embargo that blankets the entire region period. Arm Israel? Emphatic no, exclaimation point, underscored and punctuated with a ten pound sledge no. The best thing for the world is to afford Hezbollah the opportunity to screw up and discredit themselves. Should they attain power and incur a defensive response from Israel they will lose alot of their newfound credibility.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
The UN should have as large a force as they can assemble. Not withdraw like the Canadians from Golan Heights.
It has become obvious there were too many camaras, ipods, and certified eyeballs recording the use of such questionable practices like cluster bombs, bunker-busting bombs and chemical weapons. The removal of international tourists was the first step. The abandonment of the UN was the second. Now the groundwork is laid for a large attack by banning the reporting of "unique" weapons within Lebanon.
The presence of UN forces should be present and mandatory on both sides of the fence.
I received this article this morning from Memri and thought we might want to hear what the Lebanese are thinking about Hezbollah.
I think that just about says it all.
Edited to remove full article and cite only portions in accordance with forum Rules - Jaime
QUOTE
Special Dispatch-Lebanon
December 5, 2006
No. 1377
Lebanese Daily: The Opposition's Street Actions are a Syrian-Iranian Coup
To view this Special Dispatch in HTML, visit:
www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD137706 .
In its December 1, 2006 editorial, the Lebanese daily Al-Mustaqbal, which is
affiliated with the March 14 Forces, warned that the street actions
organized by the Hizbullah-led Lebanese opposition are actually a coup that
is being carried out on Syrian and Iranian orders. The daily pointed to the
similarity between the situation in Lebanon and the situation in the
Palestinian territories, stating that the resemblance arises from Syria's
and Iran's involvement in both.
The following are excerpts from the editorial:(1)
An Attempt to Incite Disobedience in the Lebanese Army
"Yesterday the picture was completed. The commander of the coup, Hizbullah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, set the time for the launch of the
street actions and sit-down strikes for three o'clock today. This
declaration reminds the Lebanese of past times, when coups occurred in other
[places]. [Back then], one of the officers would get on the radio and read
out 'Announcement No.1' [declaring a coup]. Today, [Hizbullah's TV station]
Al-Manar undertook to broadcast [this] announcement, in a military tone, on
behalf of the so-called 'national opposition,' following a [TV] appearance
by Nasrallah. Nothing was needed to complete the picture except [people]
firing celebratory shots [in the air], and shots were indeed fired in
Al-Dahiya, [Hizbullah's stronghold in Beirut,] to underscore the victory...
<snip>
"It is important to point out [Lebanese President Emile] Lahoud's part in
the current coup. He declared that government officials may disobey the
decisions of their superiors and of their ministries, since the government
running the country 'is illegal and lacks constitutional legitimacy...'
This statement is incitement to disobedience... According to the law, the
army is subordinate to the government... It is no secret that Lahoud's
[statement] is essentially [meant to] incite the army to disobedience.
Lahoud aims to incite the army against the government so that it will
support the impending coup..."
The Goal: Thwarting The Establishment Of An International Tribunal And
Thwarting The Implementation Of U.N.S.C. Resolution 1701
<snip>
"Thus, the coup will be put into action today on an order from Hassan
Nasrallah... Nasrallah is disregarding the facts. The Islamic Spiritual
Summit(2) declared that taking to the streets is a condemnable act. Nabih
Berri himself was against taking to the streets. Even former prime ministers
Omar Karami and Salim Al-Hoss sensed the people's mood around them, and
announced that they would prefer the street actions to be avoided...
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir was also strongly [against taking
to the streets]...
"The coup that Nasrallah is leading... from 'underground tunnels' is [a
coup] against national unity... This is a coup by the 'Hizbullah state'
against the Taif [Accords]. This is a coup by one group [i.e., the Shi'ites]
against the other groups [in Lebanon]..."
<snip>
December 5, 2006
No. 1377
Lebanese Daily: The Opposition's Street Actions are a Syrian-Iranian Coup
To view this Special Dispatch in HTML, visit:
www.memri.org/bin/opener_latest.cgi?ID=SD137706 .
In its December 1, 2006 editorial, the Lebanese daily Al-Mustaqbal, which is
affiliated with the March 14 Forces, warned that the street actions
organized by the Hizbullah-led Lebanese opposition are actually a coup that
is being carried out on Syrian and Iranian orders. The daily pointed to the
similarity between the situation in Lebanon and the situation in the
Palestinian territories, stating that the resemblance arises from Syria's
and Iran's involvement in both.
The following are excerpts from the editorial:(1)
An Attempt to Incite Disobedience in the Lebanese Army
"Yesterday the picture was completed. The commander of the coup, Hizbullah
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, set the time for the launch of the
street actions and sit-down strikes for three o'clock today. This
declaration reminds the Lebanese of past times, when coups occurred in other
[places]. [Back then], one of the officers would get on the radio and read
out 'Announcement No.1' [declaring a coup]. Today, [Hizbullah's TV station]
Al-Manar undertook to broadcast [this] announcement, in a military tone, on
behalf of the so-called 'national opposition,' following a [TV] appearance
by Nasrallah. Nothing was needed to complete the picture except [people]
firing celebratory shots [in the air], and shots were indeed fired in
Al-Dahiya, [Hizbullah's stronghold in Beirut,] to underscore the victory...
<snip>
"It is important to point out [Lebanese President Emile] Lahoud's part in
the current coup. He declared that government officials may disobey the
decisions of their superiors and of their ministries, since the government
running the country 'is illegal and lacks constitutional legitimacy...'
This statement is incitement to disobedience... According to the law, the
army is subordinate to the government... It is no secret that Lahoud's
[statement] is essentially [meant to] incite the army to disobedience.
Lahoud aims to incite the army against the government so that it will
support the impending coup..."
The Goal: Thwarting The Establishment Of An International Tribunal And
Thwarting The Implementation Of U.N.S.C. Resolution 1701
<snip>
"Thus, the coup will be put into action today on an order from Hassan
Nasrallah... Nasrallah is disregarding the facts. The Islamic Spiritual
Summit(2) declared that taking to the streets is a condemnable act. Nabih
Berri himself was against taking to the streets. Even former prime ministers
Omar Karami and Salim Al-Hoss sensed the people's mood around them, and
announced that they would prefer the street actions to be avoided...
Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir was also strongly [against taking
to the streets]...
"The coup that Nasrallah is leading... from 'underground tunnels' is [a
coup] against national unity... This is a coup by the 'Hizbullah state'
against the Taif [Accords]. This is a coup by one group [i.e., the Shi'ites]
against the other groups [in Lebanon]..."
<snip>
I think that just about says it all.
Edited to remove full article and cite only portions in accordance with forum Rules - Jaime
Loreng- but what percentage of the population does the anti-Hezbollah faction represent? Just the Christian minority?
It is an editorial, after all, and the rhetoric on either side is pretty strident, and may or may not represent the thoughts of a majority.
Personally, with whatever linkage Hezbollah has with Iran, does this mean Nasrallah want to be a vassal of Iran? Or just an ally? Or, same with Syria? Considering much of the country is anti-Israel, and anti-US, from what I have seen, is the anti-US sentiment stronger than the anti-Iran or Syria sentiment?
It is an editorial, after all, and the rhetoric on either side is pretty strident, and may or may not represent the thoughts of a majority.
Personally, with whatever linkage Hezbollah has with Iran, does this mean Nasrallah want to be a vassal of Iran? Or just an ally? Or, same with Syria? Considering much of the country is anti-Israel, and anti-US, from what I have seen, is the anti-US sentiment stronger than the anti-Iran or Syria sentiment?
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Dec 4 2006, 03:16 PM) 
Loreng- but what percentage of the population does the anti-Hezbollah faction represent? Just the Christian minority?
It is an editorial, after all, and the rhetoric on either side is pretty strident, and may or may not represent the thoughts of a majority.
Personally, with whatever linkage Hezbollah has with Iran, does this mean Nasrallah want to be a vassal of Iran? Or just an ally? Or, same with Syria? Considering much of the country is anti-Israel, and anti-US, from what I have seen, is the anti-US sentiment stronger than the anti-Iran or Syria sentiment?
The anti-Hezbollah faction is about 60% of the population. But even the Christian community is split. The various factions do not support Iran, Syria or Hezbollah, but also do not like each other much for that matter. Can they unite in opposition, the is the 64,000 dollar question. Right now it does not look likely.
Yes Hasrallah is a total vassal of Iran. He launched the attacks on Israel at Iran's command. Syria is undergoing a lot of inside movement. They have been a secular dictatorship under the Alawite clan. The government is not stable and making a move to stay in power through an alliance with Iran. Syria being a Sunni majority with a large Kurdish minority to the north east is not going to turn Shi'a without a huge fight. Iran is more than willing to set this off since regardless of what happens they gain.
The Lebanese have no love for Syria, but the reality is that Syria never really left. Their intelligent agents are still there and doing whatever they can to de-stabilize the government and aid Hezbollah. Since the government is very anti-Israel and refuses to do anything that would hinder any attacks on Israel. The Lebanese blame Israel for their lack of internal control. They also do not think they should be held accountable for attacks against Israel that originate from their own territory.
As for the rest I am not sure. They would be better off to not be so anti-American, but then again they have never been blessed with enough insight to see that the only ones they are really harming is themselves.
QUOTE(loreng59)
The anti-Hezbollah faction is about 60% of the population. But even the Christian community is split. The various factions do not support Iran, Syria or Hezbollah, but also do not like each other much for that matter. Can they unite in opposition, the is the 64,000 dollar question. Right now it does not look likely.
Are you sure about that? This is precisely what happened. The major catalysts for the large 500 000+ turnouts were the uniting of the Sunni and Shia's with General Michel Aoun's Marionite Christians. Read the general's history and it is clearly anti-Syrian. The merger was verified by the Guardian newpaper.
For his group to participate on the same side as Hezbollah in passive demostrations is a telling sign that western influence is destabilizating the country.
QUOTE(Trouble @ Dec 4 2006, 04:35 PM)
QUOTE(loreng59)
The anti-Hezbollah faction is about 60% of the population. But even the Christian community is split. The various factions do not support Iran, Syria or Hezbollah, but also do not like each other much for that matter. Can they unite in opposition, the is the 64,000 dollar question. Right now it does not look likely.
Are you sure about that? This is precisely what happened. The major catalysts for the large 500 000+ turnouts were the uniting of the Sunni and Shia's with General Michel Aoun's Marionite Christians. Read the general's history and it is clearly anti-Syrian. The merger was verified by the Guardian newpaper.
For his group to participate on the same side as Hezbollah in passive demostrations is a telling sign that western influence is destabilizating the country.
General Aoun is very anti-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. To the extent that he would rather see the country destroyed to rid it of PM Siniora than anything else. Again the majority of the population is not in favor of Hezbollah especially considering that a large portion of the Shi'a community were settled in Lebanon by the Syrians during the last civil war.
Lebanon is in very serious trouble. I remember during the early 70s when we aided the Marionite Christians from the PLO. Arafat attempted to destabilize the government just like he attempted in Syria and Jordan before that. Israel thought that the world community would support the effort or at least not oppose it since they were aiding a 'Western - Christian' community. They were disillusioned of the naivete, the world community cared more to condemn Israel than it did to protect Christians. The result was a more than a decade of civil war and the rise of large Shi'a minority in Southern Lebanon.
Looks like the participates failed to learn anything from the last civil war and are going to repeat it. This time though Israel is not going to aid the Christians. They may be slow but even they learned. Expect the government to fall because the majority are not unified and the opposition is and well armed to boot. This is the end of the Marionite Christians in Lebanon. The world community will not be either willing or able to prevent the massacre.
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?
I don’t know if much hope for the Lebanon should exist under this light. Just like Afghanistan during the cold war it seems nations get destroyed as other nations or really cultures use them or bruise them for personal interests.
2) What should the US do if anything?
I don’t know how much progress would can make in Lebanon giving our current leadership did not really put much concern into the massacre that occurred in Lebanon not that long ago, probably as wanted by various groups, again see my answer in question #1.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
When I think of the U.N I think of the opening scene in 2001 a space odyssey when the monkeys learn to use a bone. I don’t think the U.N will make much a headway, like most things internally it will falter because interests will not get on the same page. The basic doctrine of human rights as put forth by the U.N wont really matter as long as nations will agree to it being broke or held in various situations, or the relativity of such due to cultural interests basically reflects again in anything the U.N tries to do. Plus not only this, just like in Rwanda a genocide can be occurring and really no one has to care. If anything the troops there may hold an observer role until the nations that make up that force decide to pull them. If you blame the U.N for such behavior you really then should just be blaming the nations of the world at that point, I know I do.
I don’t know if much hope for the Lebanon should exist under this light. Just like Afghanistan during the cold war it seems nations get destroyed as other nations or really cultures use them or bruise them for personal interests.
2) What should the US do if anything?
I don’t know how much progress would can make in Lebanon giving our current leadership did not really put much concern into the massacre that occurred in Lebanon not that long ago, probably as wanted by various groups, again see my answer in question #1.
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
When I think of the U.N I think of the opening scene in 2001 a space odyssey when the monkeys learn to use a bone. I don’t think the U.N will make much a headway, like most things internally it will falter because interests will not get on the same page. The basic doctrine of human rights as put forth by the U.N wont really matter as long as nations will agree to it being broke or held in various situations, or the relativity of such due to cultural interests basically reflects again in anything the U.N tries to do. Plus not only this, just like in Rwanda a genocide can be occurring and really no one has to care. If anything the troops there may hold an observer role until the nations that make up that force decide to pull them. If you blame the U.N for such behavior you really then should just be blaming the nations of the world at that point, I know I do.
QUOTE(loreng59)
General Aoun is very anti-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora. To the extent that he would rather see the country destroyed to rid it of PM Siniora than anything else. Again the majority of the population is not in favor of Hezbollah especially considering that a large portion of the Shi'a community were settled in Lebanon by the Syrians during the last civil war.
I have my doubts Hezbollah is out of favour at this moment in time. I found this Angus Reed poll useful in breaking down poll numbers.
QUOTE
Many adults in Lebanon hold two countries accountable for the recent war, according to a poll by Gallup. 40 per cent of respondents blame Israel for the 34-day conflict, while 24 per cent think the United States is most responsible.
In addition, 18 per cent of respondents blame Hezbollah, eight per cent hold Iran accountable and five per cent think Syria is responsible.
In addition, 18 per cent of respondents blame Hezbollah, eight per cent hold Iran accountable and five per cent think Syria is responsible.
What I find amazing about this event is the merging of multiple parties, some with a tenuous history which not only refutes the Syrian-Iran power projection theory, it applies a softer, out of character personality which Hezbollah is not noted for. This poll runs contrary to american media and in my opinion, highlights the worrisome ideological views being floated about by the executive for the past couple years.
They may repeat the actions of Hamas and come to power. If they come to power legitimately, I will fight vociferously to keep them from being ostracized like their Palastinian counterparts.
Questions for debate:
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?Lebanon is doomed -
while Hezbollah said it would soon intensify its own campaign to topple the cabinet.
"We just want to take a rest today," union chief Ghassan Ghosn told Reuters, adding that the unions were meeting to decide their next move.
Mahmoud Qomati, a member of Hezbollah's politburo, told Reuters the Shi'ite party would step up its own struggle to topple Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government.
"Within the next two weeks, there will be several important and different movements ... we will have movements that will include all the Lebanese lands," he said.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Not much we can do. The UN has authority there and they sit and watch the arms flow in from Syria and Iran. What else can we expect from this thoroughly useless organizarion/
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
How about enforce the resolutions? Never happen. Why we belong to this useless org. is beyond me.
1) Is there hope for Lebanon and what is your prediction of what will happen next?Lebanon is doomed -
while Hezbollah said it would soon intensify its own campaign to topple the cabinet.
"We just want to take a rest today," union chief Ghassan Ghosn told Reuters, adding that the unions were meeting to decide their next move.
Mahmoud Qomati, a member of Hezbollah's politburo, told Reuters the Shi'ite party would step up its own struggle to topple Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's government.
"Within the next two weeks, there will be several important and different movements ... we will have movements that will include all the Lebanese lands," he said.
2) What should the US do if anything?
Not much we can do. The UN has authority there and they sit and watch the arms flow in from Syria and Iran. What else can we expect from this thoroughly useless organizarion/
3) What should the UN do if anything, particularly considering its troops are stationed in Lebanon right now.
How about enforce the resolutions? Never happen. Why we belong to this useless org. is beyond me.
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