David and Victoria Beckham get ready to conquer America - Fox News
Beckham says U.S. soccer has 'huge potential' - MSNBC
Beckham agrees to LA Galaxy move

So, David Beckham has finally agreed to a $250m deal to play himself towards retirement out of the way of properly competitive soccer until he 'retires' aged about 36 or 37, so his robotically ambitious wife can line both of them up for a Hollywood career.

Oops! Did I type that out loud?

I meant, of course, that Beckahm and his new club, LA Galaxy, hope to build American soccer into a proper 'adult' sport like baseball, basketball or what Americans call "Football" (despite most games only ever seeing one player, who spends most of the game sat on the bench, kicking the ball ).

This has happened before - other famously talented and good-looking footballers have ended up playing in the USA (George Best & Pele, to name but two). In almost all cases, it is viewed by world soccer as a lucrative way to wind down to retirement. But perhaps the timing for the Beckham move might just be able to make a difference to this model?

For example, the stop-start nature of football, baseball and basketball allows for ad breaks every few minutes, which keeps the broadcasters happy, and they pay the sports leagues and clubs lots of money in return - far more than they could ever hope to make from ticket sales to their games.

Now, though, new and recently-emerged broadcasting methods (digital TV, mobile TV, TiVO, broadband webcasts, etc) are potentially undermining traditional television advertising. And TV advertising, as I've already mentioned, underpins the mass access to the three most popular TV sports in America which enables them to be the most popular.

If the basis for tv advertising breaks down, these sports could stand to lose a lot of money from TV rights, and dramatically reduce the available audience, with foreseeable knock-ons to merchandising, sponsorship, game attendances, etc.

And, perhaps, a game which has always suffered on US tv because the two continuous 45-minute halves do not lend themselves to the US advertising model might be able to build a bigger audience, especially as US demographics change to include more and more Latin Americans, who have always been fans of soccer.

Also, let's not forget the international sales possibilites of a successful US soccer league. International TV rights sales for (say) baseball are quite limited, since only a few countries outside North America play it. Soccer (adult male professional soccer, I'm talking about here), on the other hand, is wildly popular pretty much everywhere except the USA and Canada. A significant chunk of the cash washing around the English Premier League comes from sales to broadcasters in China, India, Latin America, Africa, and so on.

The financial brains behind US professional soccer cannot be blind to the possibilities offered by a truly global game, just as Hollywood has finally (and sporadically) come to realise that movies with international appeal can make more money outside America than inside it.

So, while the simple commercial decision of the Beckhams is pretty straightforward, and it's not hard to see that they might have moved to LA (rather than back to a UK club) with an eye on longer-term opportunities...

What chance does soccer have of eventually becoming as popular in the USA, and as commercially successful, as football, baseball or basketball ?

Is the recruitment of Beckham going to help, hinder or make no difference to this process?

Do changes in broadcasting and receiving technology, and in American demographics, make this more or less likely? Why?

What changes could the traditional American sports make to respond to this potential threat to their revenue and popularity?

Precisely what I was thinking. Unfortunately, being known as the "geezer leagues" doesn't exactly lend itself to boosting soccer's profile with the American sport's consumer, eh?

What chance does soccer have of eventually becoming as popular in the USA, and as commercially successful, as football, baseball or basketball ?
Long term, who knows? Short term, not much. I can see it replacing, if it hasn't already, Hockey, but that's far more due to geographic population shifts and Hockey's incompetence in managing their "brand" than any particular strength of soccer. I believe that one of the problems with soccer is precisely what you cleverly take a shot at in the name of our most popular team sport, football. American team sports seem to be much more hands on.

Is the recruitment of Beckham going to help, hinder or make no difference to this process?
If anything, I would say its going to hinder it, and that's primarily because he's not going to viscerally appeal to the growing Hispanic community in the same way that someone like Maradano would.

Do changes in broadcasting and receiving technology, and in American demographics, make this more or less likely? Why? I don't think its going to make a lot of difference, unless a true North American / Pan-American professional soccer league is formed. Until that happens, the Hispanics will continue thinking that the teams of their homeland are better, and Americans aren't going to be terribly concerned because the only meaningful international competition is every 4 years, and the team makeups aren't even the same. Get constant, professional, international league play, where the locals in Chicago or Houston or LA or Miami can root against their team playing their arch-rivals from Mexico City or Brasilia or Montreal, and then you'll have something.

What changes could the traditional American sports make to respond to this potential threat to their revenue and popularity?
The only cost-effective change I can see would be for basketball (most at risk) to make a serious push to become more attractive to Hispanics. Actively seek out and groom Hispanic players. Unfortunately, how they can do this without risking alienating blacks is questionable.

Somewhat rudely, I'm going to take this slightly off topic to just point out that, since it became widely available on satelite TV, the US sport, known as football is the fast growing sport in Europe. At the same time, more and more European children are abandoning traditional sports in search of more 'adventurous' pastimes.

Its got a way to go, but don't be surprisd if there is suddenly an EFL to rival the European Champions League. We've already seen whats become of the English football side after so few Brits are taking up the sport. The same thing is echoed here in Denmark where each year the US style game becomes more and more popular.

Youth soccer is very popular in the US. Possibly the #2 or #3 youth sport in terms of participation.

The problem with European style "football" is that it doesn't lend itself well to commercialization, which drives the major sports. There are no timeouts in soccer. NBA basketball has TV timeouts where the team must take a mandatory timeout at a specified time.

Not to mention, it is pretty boring to watch on TV if you don't have an intense interest in one team or the other or the sport in general. Sort of along the lines of tennis or golf. Oh, and nobody scores, which is anti-American.

For soccer to pickup in the US as far as major sports go, it would need to be a smaller field (ala hockey or slightly larger) to increase scoring and semi-regular timeouts would need to be added.

What chance does soccer have of eventually becoming as popular in the USA, and as commercially successful, as football, baseball or basketball ?

None. This has been done before and the result was more or less complete failure. I believe that the MLS has lost money every year it has been in existence. Soccer is not a sport in which a single player can dominate in the way Americans are accustomed to a player dominating a sport. A pretty boy whose only great ability at this stage is kicking free kicks is not going to push Soccer up with the likes of Baseball, American Football or Basketball....or even Hockey, Nascar, College Basketball, College Football, Golf and maybe not even Tennis, UFC, Figure Skating and Boxing. A large market does not exist for Soccer. The fanbase is not there. Superstars (because of the way the game is structured) cannot exist in soccer to the extent in which Americans are accustomed to superstars in other sports and certainly not from a midfielder position. As knowing Sportwriters in America have stated..... This is a one day news item that was badly timed during the NFL playoffs. I doubt that most Americans were even aware that Los Angelas had a soccer team. A large chunk of America has never even heard of David Beckham and without that movie that number would be even greater.


Is the recruitment of Beckham going to help, hinder or make no difference to this process?

It might sell some tickets in LA for a while, but the game simply does not have room to thrive in America. His impact will be minimal. When his scores are few and far between...most Americans who decide to check out soccer will say "This is the guy they gave all that money"?

Do changes in broadcasting and receiving technology, and in American demographics, make this more or less likely? Why?

I am not sure, but I think MLS has lost a lot of broadcasting rights for the most part. Sportcenter does not even cover most regular season games and few games are televised. MLS gets little exposure. American demographics are the only thing that could inevitably keep MLS from collapsing like its predecessors. The growing Latino population (specifically Mexican) seems to be pretty soccer friendly.

What changes could the traditional American sports make to respond to this potential threat to their revenue and popularity

They are not threatened. The Big 4 are entrenched in this nation. Some alien European/South American sport is never going to shake the top 3 from the podium. Hockey will always have a market because of its Canadian fanbase and its strength in northern US states. Soccer will never penetrate these regions...so I think hockey is safe here as well.

MLS will always be a minor league when compared to the top leagues in Europe. MLS will never have the top players of the world and the US population is never going to get all riled up about a 3rd rate league that at times picks up aging world super stars.

Soccer will always be a dead sport here I think. We like the World Cup. We can recognize the large events, but Americans will not support another Major League sport. We do not have room or time on the calender.

Hmm. The commericaliatin aspect what was I was getting at when I talked about changed in broadcast delivery. Many TV and advertising executives are worried that TV advertising is itself potentially approaching its demise.

If that happens, it won't matter too much that soccer doesn't have time outs (and there will be little or no point having them in basketball & football, since they were only really introduced when the sports first became televised).

The non-scoring point you make may be fair enough now, but if the momentum picks up to the point where people enhoy watching the sport per se the way the rest of the world does, that may not matter.

To answer my own questions, I think that eventually soccer has every chance of taking over as the number 1 sport. But I think it will be over such a long time scale that it won't be relevant you most of us, and the spectator sports market and the technology that delivers it into the home (or the bar) will have changed beyond recognition by then anyway.

I don't think Beckham will make very much difference to this - this move has much more to to with his longer-term ambitions (and, specifically, those of his wife for him).

And I think that the major US sports are in deep trouble in the long term unless they adapt their structure to take account of possible changes to TV funding structures as they arise, and also, as the global economy develops so that the USA is simply an economic and cultural powerhouse and no longer the cultural and economic powerhouse (as it inevitably will given enough time - the first lesson of history is that everything changes eventually) theywill have to push much harder internationally to compete with soccer, rugby, cricket, and all the other sports which the rest of the world take seriously and America more or less ignores.

What chance does soccer have of eventually becoming as popular in the USA, and as commercially successful, as football, baseball or basketball ?

Like you Julian, I think time is the only factor. It may not take over the top three but one day it will be mentioned along with the traditional favorites. The guardians of the league, “Uncle” Phil Anschutz and Lamar Hunt are doing things the right way this time around.

For example the LA Galaxy have built their own modestly sized facility where they collect the revenue for parking and concessions, apparently other MLS cities will be following their lead. It makes sense, why play in a 90K seater when you only draw 25-30K?

I think the other and often overlooked factor is the size of American football players. We now have quarterbacks that are 6’-6” 260 pounds, and it was only a short time ago that person would have been playing on the line. If you look at England’s ’06 World cup squad, and with the exception of Peter Crouch (height only) they’re all “smallish” by NFL standards.

So a lot of the now undersized football players may look to soccer as a means to a college scholarship and on to the next level.

I thought we had another chance to boost soccer here when Klinsmann was being considered as the replacement coach for the U.S. national squad. After watching the last two World Cup’s I think our talent is almost there and Klinsman could have added the missing ingredient: tactics. Our offense had been……well……offensive, we have a hard time finishing.

Will there ever the passion that’s found in the English football league? We can only hope that one day you’ll hear a chorus of “You’ll never walk alone” (or suitable replacement for the anti-scouse) reigning down on the pitch as steadfast fans try to inspire their team (I really wish we had more of the chants/singing over here).

Is the recruitment of Beckham going to help, hinder or make no difference to this process?

Without question it’s going to help. The Galaxy have already sold more season tickets and with Americas fascination of anything “celebrity”, Beck’s and his spice wife will be the toast of L.A. I would expect a larger draw for Galaxy games when they play on the road. Building upon and maintaining the momentum that will follow Beckham’s arrival will be the key.

Do changes in broadcasting and receiving technology, and in American demographics, make this more or less likely? Why?

As pointed out, our growing Hispanic population will only add to the fan base. There’s a deal in the works where the top four MLS teams will play the top four teams in the Mexican league. If the U.S. national team has a true rivalry it would be with the Mexican national team. There’s no loss of love there and this deal will only add to the fan base.

What changes could the traditional American sports make to respond to this potential threat to their revenue and popularity?

Football has become America’s favorite past time and it’s coming dangerously close to shooting itself in the feet: too much advertising is taking away from the flow of the game. It came to a point of frustration watching the college bowl games and the BCS games were particularly bad. There’s a breaking point with fans and since our sports are principally funded by advertising revenue they may be forced to find alternate advertising methods like you suggest.