QUOTE(Amlord @ Apr 9 2007, 01:34 PM)

Had the question asked about promised future spending, our answers would be the same, I think, Hobbes.
As it is, does the current debt/deficit scenario describe a situation that is "out of control"? I think it doesn't and you obviously disagree.
What you are missing, is that unless there are sudden changes in the debt level of the US, everyone in the financial arena is aware of and comfortable with, what is going on. That means it is indeed sustainable. The fact that the debt level is lower today (relative to GDP) than it was in the "good old days" of Truman and Eisenhower.
But the looming problem, the entitlement problem, is outlined
Here.Well, I tend to view the two as one-and-the-same, since it is the current mindset (and lack of control) that has led to the looming problem. The mindset being that politicians have discovered that they can buy current votes now, and have other people pay for them later.
As for the current levels, irrespective of future promises, I would still say they are both out of control, and currently very harmful. Control in a financial situation would be exemplified by living within ones means, and that hasn't been done (outside of an anomoly during Clinton's administration) for decades. It is therefore by definition 'out of control' from a process management standpoint, as an 'in control' process would center on averaging a balanced budget. (It also wouldn't involve stealing from a trust fund, but I digress). As to the current problems this presents:
1. Is the National Debt now out of control, out of "necessary and proper" use, and a weakening of a power that might truly be needed "necessarily and properly" in the future?I'll answer the latter part, which then I think answers the first two. Consider that our budget is stretched tight enough that we have very little leeway for emergencies. Think back to the Gulf War, when we had other countries fund the use of our troops there. Why? Although we put lots of diplomatic spin on it, the answer in a nutshell was that we couldn't very well afford it. We couldn't afford to fund our very own defense (or at least chose not too). Is that not a scary scenario?
A worse scenario, even with current debt levels, is that we are highly exposed to swings in the interest rate. Interest rates are still at fairly low rates--having them double or even triple is well within the realm of possibility. If interest rates doubled or tripled, then the amount spent financing that debt would double or triple. That would increase federal spending by several hundreds of billions of dollars. That is the amount we currently spend on defense, HHS, SS, etc. Do you think our current budget would easily handle doubling expenditures on those programs? Not hardly.
There is also the simple issue that the hundreds of billions of dollars we spend each year in interest is hundreds of billions of dollars each year that we don't have to spend on anything useful. For example...this is money that could be going towards addressing the looming SS/Medicaid crisis, but can't, because it's tied up paying interest.
Finally, consider that much of the debt service undertaken to fund this debt is done for foreign governments...essentially putting our financial future in their hands. What if they suddenly decided to stop buying? Interest rates would then immediately rise to entice others to buy, having undesirable consequences on our economy while also burdening our federal government with additional debt service fees.
If you combine all of these issues, it is easy to see that we have a definite weakening of power that might truly be needed 'necessarily and properly' in the future.
QUOTE
everyone in the financial arena is aware of and comfortable with, what is going on. That means it is indeed sustainable
Aware of....yes. Comfortable with? I don't really think so. Foreign entities have been investing elsewhere, and even domestically the level of debt is a source of concern. However, it is still a viable investment compared with other possibilities--as you stated, our debt level is in line with other Western governments. Plus, the government has an inherent advantage when compared with corporate bonds...it can always just print money if it needs it. So, it has a lower risk associated with it. The trend is not good, though. U.S. Bonds used to be thought of as rock solid investments..the risk wasn't even questioned. Now, it is, and institutions are starting to invest elsewhere.
What can be done about this? Well, that of course is the kicker...
2. What is your fix, if any, for this state of affairs? And, is it not more holding govt. to what is "allowed as necessary and proper", before making the more common suggestion for a National Debt amendment?Yes, I do think we should hold government to a 'necessary and proper' standard. I think this should be done by having any new legislation also include a section indicating how it will be funded. This is not currently done. Further, I think Congress should have to explicitly lay out why any funding over and above its expected revenues (ie, the expected deficit) is 'necessary and proper' in order to receive funding for it. In short, some form of fiscal sanity needs to start to be exercised, and budgets need to start becoming in line with revenues.
Ideally, I would go beyond simply balancing the budget, and require Congress to come up with a plan on how to pay off the current debt..funding for which would have to also be explicitly laid out. Unfortunately, I think we're already at levels that make this difficult. Not only would this require political capital, but there's also a very real chance that directing funds toward this would require spending cuts or tax increases that might well have negative short term (many years) impacts on the economy. Picture an individual who is deeply in credit card debt,. What happens to that persons lifestyle if he then cuts back on expenses in order to pay off his debt? Well, it goes down, doesn't it? That lifestyle translates into our national economy...if the government spends less money, then less money is going into the economy, which has a trickle down effect throughout the economy. I think the usual figure used is 7 to 1...for every dollar the government puts into the economy, 7 dollars of output are created. Therefore, paying off the national debt might have a deleterious effect on the economy, at least in the short term. However, I think it has to be done sometime, and its only going to get larger, and we're only going to continue wasting money on interest until it happens. The negative impacts should be at least partially offset by lower interest rates, spurring additional growth.