Full Version: Chavez goes for third term-
Chavez is someone I have very little sympathy with, but he is sure is not a dictator. Not by a mile, not yet. What kind of dictator would allow a democratic vote, in which a proposal that he supports would lose? Can you imagine something like that happening in North Korea? Cuba? Soviet Union, or even modern Russia (sadly)? Congratulations to Venezuelians, apparently democracy works.
The victory for ˇSi! was indeed a great day for Venezuela. Chávez got 3 million less votes than he did during the last vote. As some of us suspected, he didn't want to accept the results. From Salon's excellent Venezuela blog:
Just the fact that the CNE was able to delay the release of results for 3 hours should put some fear into those who wish Venezuela to maintain its democratic institutions. The good news is that the military was able to stabilize things, much as General Baduel did in 2002 when he ensured Chavez would remain in power after the attempted coup. Hopefully Chavez will continue his fight within the institutions and not try anything crazy.
QUOTE
Behind the Scenes: Multiple reliable sources are saying that having Chávez accept the results was no easy task. In fact, a good source told me that at some point the CNE President almost announced a Si victory by a slim margin, which was stopped only because General Baduel threatened to come on stage and call the fraud if she did this. In the end the military and Baduel prevailed in defending institutionality. Baduel and the military reportedly played a key role in forcing Chavez to accept his defeat or otherwise the military will call it a coup.
Chavez in some sense acknowledge this last night, when he refereed to his “dilemma” and the fact that he no longer had one. Chavez tacitly admitted that he had known the results for three hours and that the results created a dilemma for him and that even if he tried to refer to the Electoral Board as an independent institution, in the end it was his decision. He went as far as mentioning that he even had long consultations with his Ministers and the Cabinet.
In a country with true independent institutions, whether or when to announce a result should have nothing to do with the Executive branch. The Electoral Board may have the courtesy of informing the winners and losers right before the announcement, but Chávez clearly proved why there are no independent powers in Venezuela and why institutionality is so weak: he fails to recognize where he should stop meddling and interfering with independent branches of power. It was not his dilemma, he was interfering with institutions.
It also shows why our democracy is weak. If the military has to act at each tough junction in our democratic life in order to restore institutionality, it means that our politicians do not yet understand what a functional democracy should be and act like.
Chavez in some sense acknowledge this last night, when he refereed to his “dilemma” and the fact that he no longer had one. Chavez tacitly admitted that he had known the results for three hours and that the results created a dilemma for him and that even if he tried to refer to the Electoral Board as an independent institution, in the end it was his decision. He went as far as mentioning that he even had long consultations with his Ministers and the Cabinet.
In a country with true independent institutions, whether or when to announce a result should have nothing to do with the Executive branch. The Electoral Board may have the courtesy of informing the winners and losers right before the announcement, but Chávez clearly proved why there are no independent powers in Venezuela and why institutionality is so weak: he fails to recognize where he should stop meddling and interfering with independent branches of power. It was not his dilemma, he was interfering with institutions.
It also shows why our democracy is weak. If the military has to act at each tough junction in our democratic life in order to restore institutionality, it means that our politicians do not yet understand what a functional democracy should be and act like.
Just the fact that the CNE was able to delay the release of results for 3 hours should put some fear into those who wish Venezuela to maintain its democratic institutions. The good news is that the military was able to stabilize things, much as General Baduel did in 2002 when he ensured Chavez would remain in power after the attempted coup. Hopefully Chavez will continue his fight within the institutions and not try anything crazy.
Hmmm, looks like he proved us all wrong- he accepted the vote and the results.
NOT the behavior of a dictator.
NOT the behavior of a dictator.
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Dec 4 2007, 10:36 PM) 
Hmmm, looks like he proved us all wrong- he accepted the vote and the results.
NOT the behavior of a dictator.
NOT the behavior of a dictator.
He accepted them for NOW. He has time left in office. The key event is the day he actually leaves office peacefully.
I fully believe he did everything in his power to steal this country and condemn it to decades of socialist hell. Thank god the students woke up just enough people to save Venezuela – for now
QUOTE(Ted @ Dec 7 2007, 04:52 AM)
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Dec 4 2007, 10:36 PM)
Hmmm, looks like he proved us all wrong- he accepted the vote and the results.
NOT the behavior of a dictator.
NOT the behavior of a dictator.
He accepted them for NOW. He has time left in office. The key event is the day he actually leaves office peacefully.
I fully believe he did everything in his power to steal this country and condemn it to decades of socialist hell. Thank god the students woke up just enough people to save Venezuela – for now
6 days later we still don't have the final count of votes.....despite the millions of dollars spent to have a electronic voting system. Things like this is what makes everybody distrust the CNE. So far 94% of the votes have been counted...but things look strange with that bulletin. Here is a discussion going on about it: Rumors of CNE's competence have been greatly exaggerated (you'd have to scroll down until you see the entry)
Beside that, what happened the 2nd of december in Venezuela with respect to Chavez acceptance of his defeat is repeated throughout Latin America. Here is Jorge Castańeda's opinion on the subject (Castańeda is former foreign minister of Mexico).
Not that this democratic behaviour shown by Chavez lasted too much, since one day later, he already threatened to present his reform again "without changing one comma of it"......We will see....
giftzahn
Wow- six days- I wish our own system was that good 
-
So what is the prognosis of Chavez at this point GZ? I think there is no problem with him re-submitting his proposed reforms, that is the right of any liberal democracy. (liberal in the terms of western democracy, not neccesarily political ideology)
-So what is the prognosis of Chavez at this point GZ? I think there is no problem with him re-submitting his proposed reforms, that is the right of any liberal democracy. (liberal in the terms of western democracy, not neccesarily political ideology)
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Dec 8 2007, 06:17 PM)
Wow- six days- I wish our own system was that good -
So what is the prognosis of Chavez at this point GZ? I think there is no problem with him re-submitting his proposed reforms, that is the right of any liberal democracy. (liberal in the terms of western democracy, not neccesarily political ideology)
-So what is the prognosis of Chavez at this point GZ? I think there is no problem with him re-submitting his proposed reforms, that is the right of any liberal democracy. (liberal in the terms of western democracy, not neccesarily political ideology)
Well Cruisingram, You know Venezuela doesn't have as many people as the US and before these machines were put to use, final results were given the same day of the elections. Elections processes lasts in Venezuela till 4:00 PM (if there is nobody on queues to vote); results were given 4 or fives hours later. There is NO possible excuse that results are so delayed.
Just for you to have an idea, the CNE still hasn't given final results for 2006 elections, only the partial result is known.
In relation to your question: No, he cannot present the same Proposal in this period, due to article 345 of the 1999 Constitution. One possibility they talk about is that a new proposal comes from the people (15% of the voters) but it still cannot be the same proposal.
Even if the article didn't exist, I don't think it is pollitically savvy to present again a project that was rejected. After all, all these referenda processes cost us money, money that should be used to improve hospitals, etc.
I understand that you are not happy with your system. I respect that and I really hope that it gets better (the system in the US, I mean)...after all improvement is always possible. I also hope, in case there is a change that you don't end up like many in Venezuela who now say, refering to times pre-Chavez: "the times when we were happy and we didn't know it".
We have had that problem here as well, even in a state as small as mine- it is not unique to Venezuela, I am afraid! 
That being said- I have to ask- he conceded defeat on this issue, he has also made some very silly mis-steps that MUST reflect badly even in his "base"- such as getting told off by King Carlos
- My recollection of a latin American society is that this is such a huge loss of "face", that it would harm him even for his most loyal followers, even if they don't admit it.
But, the underlying issue is- he excepted the results, and did so publicaly- NO dictator would do this.
That being said- I have to ask- he conceded defeat on this issue, he has also made some very silly mis-steps that MUST reflect badly even in his "base"- such as getting told off by King Carlos
- My recollection of a latin American society is that this is such a huge loss of "face", that it would harm him even for his most loyal followers, even if they don't admit it. But, the underlying issue is- he excepted the results, and did so publicaly- NO dictator would do this.
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Dec 8 2007, 09:40 PM)
We have had that problem here as well, even in a state as small as mine- it is not unique to Venezuela, I am afraid!
That being said- I have to ask- he conceded defeat on this issue, he has also made some very silly mis-steps that MUST reflect badly even in his "base"- such as getting told off by King Carlos - My recollection of a latin American society is that this is such a huge loss of "face", that it would harm him even for his most loyal followers, even if they don't admit it.
But, the underlying issue is- he excepted the results, and did so publicaly- NO dictator would do this.
That being said- I have to ask- he conceded defeat on this issue, he has also made some very silly mis-steps that MUST reflect badly even in his "base"- such as getting told off by King Carlos
- My recollection of a latin American society is that this is such a huge loss of "face", that it would harm him even for his most loyal followers, even if they don't admit it. But, the underlying issue is- he excepted the results, and did so publicaly- NO dictator would do this.
Yeah, well for the good of the country let's hope he doesn't change his mind about the defeat - He already told us, also publicy that our victory was an "excrement" victory and the reform still goes.
These last weeks he has been a little unstable in his behaviour. Spain is just one example, Colombia is another one - the pattern is very similar: with Colombia, as Uribe told him that his mediation was not wished anymore, he accepted the decision (as he should have) respectfully, just to attack verbally the next day, when he said that he wouldn't want anything to do with Uribe's government anymore and that relations with Colombia would be "frozen" (notice that in Venezuela there is somehow scarcity of milk, meat and sugar and that Colombia is one of the main providers of those items right now --> that is: "frozen" relations is not something we need right now with Colombia).
These things should harm him, but I'm not sure, at least not if Chavistas on-line are any indication of the rest of his followers; Chavistas-light (like my mother
) are maybe the ones being put off by his behaviour. Extreme-Chavistas: I don't think so.giftzahn
Well, foot in mouth disease is endemic to all politicians, everywhere
And the "defeat"- well, technically, it was not exactly a "mandate"- it was a very close race- 49-51% is a very close margin, and, like the US, shows a country divided more than an up or down for the leader himself.
I also recall he said it would be an "excrement" victory had he won by that margin?
He is right about that- a real mandate needs to be had in order for any change- when a country is split like that- it doesn't do good for the country- the US is an excellent example of that as well.
Venezueala DOES have a very, very robust capitalist system, and a good history of it as well- I don't think he is going to stamp out capitlism in his country, and if Chavez tries to end small biz, I think he will fail miserably.
And the "defeat"- well, technically, it was not exactly a "mandate"- it was a very close race- 49-51% is a very close margin, and, like the US, shows a country divided more than an up or down for the leader himself.
I also recall he said it would be an "excrement" victory had he won by that margin?
He is right about that- a real mandate needs to be had in order for any change- when a country is split like that- it doesn't do good for the country- the US is an excellent example of that as well.
Venezueala DOES have a very, very robust capitalist system, and a good history of it as well- I don't think he is going to stamp out capitlism in his country, and if Chavez tries to end small biz, I think he will fail miserably.
This is a simplified version of our main content. To view the full version with more information, formatting and images, please click here.