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Dingo
QUOTE(scubatim @ Jan 3 2008, 07:15 AM) *
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 3 2008, 08:35 AM) *
QUOTE(scubatim @ Jan 3 2008, 06:18 AM) *
I really respect a science that can be attributed to any weather event no matter what it is. In order th reach that status, it must be a serious issue and we all must allow all governments to reach out and create more controls over our lives. In fact, we need to have the U.N. create international laws over-riding the laws of (formerly)sovereign nations. To pay for the enforcement of these new laws, we need new taxes both at the national level and the international level.

Yeah dude, it's all a conspiracy to create a one world government, tax you to death and control your life. And most of the climate scientists are in on it. Be scared. Be very scared but not about global warming.

And never fail to stay informed by regularly listening to Rush Limbaugh on the topic. wacko.gif

For your information, I have never listened to Rush, but thanks for assuming to know me! wacko.gif

I simply stated what I have read from the religious followers of the new global warming religion.

Good move - project.

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explain to me what the goals were in Bali this year? What was the purpose of that conference?

To deal with the problems of global warming as if you didn't know.

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Answer: To create a list of new laws and taxes to propose to the UN in order to control the lives of people worldwide, overstepping the sovereignty of individual nations.

Thanks for bringing me up to speed. It wasn't about global warming. It was about creating a bunch of laws and taxes to control the world. Do you have any insight into who the REAL manipulators behind the curtain are who front these evil global warming hoaxes to pull off their nefarious plans to control the world. I want the real dope on the conspiracy. And why please tell me do most of the climate scientists bow to this cabal or have they been bought off?

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I think it is laughable that every time global warming pundents get together, they do so with all the hypocrisy possible. Live Earth, Bali, Nobel Peace Prize, all the award shows for Nobel Al. How much energy do you honestly think was used not only to conduct these events, but to get everyone there?

Probably enough energy to run the entire planet for 6 months. Am I getting close?

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If there wasn't so much hypocrisy involved, I might take a serious look at the issue.

I see, if Al Gore stopped flying around to his various venues you might take GW seriously? I'll see if I can get in touch with him and convince him to use a row boat. I can see how sensitive you are on these hypocrisy matters.

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Then the global warming army claims dissenting scientists only dissent because they are getting big checks from big oil. I have yet to see any substantial evidence of that,

I have, with some of them-usually though the money goes to anti-global warming organizations but I don't think they are all doing it because of big oil. It might be that some of them honestly differ on AGW just like some scientists honestly differ on evolution and ID.

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but I do know that people like Al Gore are raking in the big bucks.

That must be why he's doing what he's doing. His decades of advocacy on the subject no doubt is how he positioned himself to make the big bucks. ermm.gif

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Ted. So lets notice that even if this happens – “edge out 1998” it shows us we still have had no significant temperature rise in 10 years AND we have had rising CO2 – the supposed driver – continue unabated.

So where are the dire predictions of Al and IPCC – nowhere.

Ted, who told you that global temperature is suppose to go up in a straight line when carbon gas is increased?

Did you ever hear the expression "strawman?"
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scubatim
OK, here is my position on the entire global warming swindle. I think I have made my position pretty clear on the entire hypocrisy point. If this was truly an immanent catastrophic future for us as the Gorelites would like me to believe, why Live Earth? Why not have the Nobel Peace Prize mailed instead of flying there with his entourage to accept it, and instead have a video conference on a big screen where he can continue to spread his gospel. I know the mail would be flown over, but it would go with thousands of other pieces, making the trip more ecologically sound (kind of like car pooling for mail). Why have 10,000 people from all over the world fly into one city to sit around energy draining hotels and conference centers and convention halls to come up with ways the green police can intrude on individual lives?

Which brings me to my second issue. I am a firm believer that industry is much more affective at creating change than government. Look at GE and the light bulb changes. Even before our Congress decided to outlaw certain light bulbs, the light bulb manufacturer struck gold with these new fancy bulbs. Heck, I even put them in my home, and I am not a Gorelite! I just like saving money! Look at Toyota. How many car manufacturers outsold Toyota in 2007? Check out these charts and tell me that industry doesn't create change faster and more efficient. If Toyota and Honda didn't change the way their cars ran, they would be in the same situation as all the other manufacturers that have been declining since 1997. New laws passed by Congress don't take affect until what, 2013? The cars on the road are becoming more efficient today because industry sees a need, and it will fill that demand with a supply. Those manufacturers in the industry that don't fill that demand, will fall behind and be history. This will all take place long before you get our government to get anything done. But the Gorelites only want to run to whatever governmental body that will stand by them and create more laws on top of all the laws that are already in place. Not to mention the yet to be defined amount of taxes that will be forced upon you by governmental officials that you did not elect.

Finally, I don't want to listen to a politician (Al Gore is simply that) tell us that we have doomed ourselves to certain painful death unless we adopt his religious-like doctrine. Even scientists that were on the UN IPCC say that the dooms day message that Gore preaches is exaggerated. I am not saying that things need to be sugar coated, I am just saying that you can predict what the weather is going to be like over the next century is hard to believe since the meteorologists can't even get the weather right for this weekend!

Do I deny that the earth is getting warmer? No. We have been warming for the last 10,000 years since the last little ice age. I just find it interesting that with the ice melting off of Greenland, people are claiming that this is a sign of a warming that has never taken place, but then archaeologists find ancient forests that have been covered by ice . If this warming is beyond the scope of anything ever to happen in earths 4 billion year history, where did those forests come from? Since there is evidence that there has been much less ice in our arctic circle, what is "normal" for earth? How do we know that we aren't going back to a "normal" climate for earth? How do we know that the earth is spiraling toward utter destruction, and not balancing itself out to what we have never seen, but in the 4 billion years of earths existence, is pretty much the way it is supposed to be?

QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 3 2008, 10:14 AM) *
Good move - project.

What?

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To deal with the problems of global warming as if you didn't know.

And how do they intend to deal with this problem? Calling everyone and asking them to do better for Mother Earth? No, they took a report to the UN and proposed the new version of the failed Kyoto. We also know that to be proposing new international laws and taxes. Why do you deny this?

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Thanks for bringing me up to speed. It wasn't about global warming. It was about creating a bunch of laws and taxes to control the world. Do you have any insight into who the REAL manipulators behind the curtain are who front these evil global warming hoaxes to pull off their nefarious plans to control the world. I want the real dope on the conspiracy. And why please tell me do most of the climate scientists bow to this cabal or have they been bought off?

Oh, there is that pesky conspiracy theory again! I must be getting my check soon as I also don't believe in your religion. I must be on the payroll of big oil and the auto industry. Tell me that global warming zealots have not run to every politician, every government and demanded government control. Please tell me that.

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Probably enough energy to run the entire planet for 6 months. Am I getting close?

All in about the span of a few days. Pretty wasteful if you ask me! Hypocrites.

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I see, if Al Gore stopped flying around to his various venues you might take GW seriously? I'll see if I can get in touch with him and convince him to use a row boat. I can see how sensitive you are on these hypocrisy matters.

Ever hear of video conference? Not much jet fuel used on those, and man, do they save time!

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I have, with some of them-usually though the money goes to anti-global warming organizations but I don't think they are all doing it because of big oil. It might be that some of them honestly differ on AGW just like some scientists honestly differ on evolution and ID.

Again, still waiting to see the evidence.

So the energy industry sends their money to anti-global warming projects (unsubstantiated claim by you), don't you think that would be counterproductive since that is the industry that already has the infastructure to deliver alternative energy? This is why energy companies are investing in alternative energy. Just an example. This must just be a PR stunt.

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That must be why he's doing what he's doing. His decades of advocacy on the subject no doubt is how he positioned himself to make the big bucks. ermm.gif

He's a politician, of course.

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Ted, who told you that global temperature is suppose to go up in a straight line when carbon gas is increased?

Did you ever hear the expression "strawman?"

If the temperature is going to rise as Nobel Al has predicted, it has a lot of catching up to do to meet his predictions.
CruisingRam
Well, this just in,

http://www.adn.com/news/environment/story/253357.html

It seems everyone is right- nature AND man are working together on this one- one guy put it this way "Nature is delivering the punch, and man is kicking him while he is down".

I like these kinds of answers, they tend to be more balanced, and seem to take all things into account.

The one Caveat in the study, the data the "nature's fault" guy used was pre-2001, and there is alot of data available after !
TedN5
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(Dingo)
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TedN5
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Sleeper, cold snaps in various locations are not inconsistent with global warming. Perhaps this is why climate scientists now prefer the term "climate change" to global warming. Increases in average temperature world wide add more total energy to the climate system. This disrupts normal wind patterns and ocean currents. Severe cold snaps are generally the result of the reconfiguration of the jet streams, that normally move from a West to East direction, to a more a more N to S direction (S to N in the Southern Hemisphere). They may also have higher wind speed. This brings cold arctic or antarctic air into temperate zones. What we can expect and are beginning to experience from global warming induced climate change is unusual weather events of all types accompanied by a gradual increase in average temperature (particularly nighttime temperature) which will be more pronounced near the arctic and the antarctic. That is why the Arctic sea ice is melting so much and why the Patagonia glaciers have receded so profoundly.



Thanks TedN. You are an incredible resource. I know I learn from your explanations. Just out of curiosity, do you work in the area of climate science?


Don't take this too seriously. I wrote the jet stream stuff off the top of my head and, upon reflection, I would state it differently. It would be more proper to describe the jet streams (both subtropical and polar) as being created by the boundary conditions between warm and cold air masses. They do gyrate as described and their gyrations are associated with the movement of cold polar air into temperate area. However, it is improper to consider their gyrations as causing the cold snaps.

No, I am not a climate scientist. However, I do have a technical background and have followed the development of the various scientific fields involved in climate research since the late 70s.
Ted
Meanwhile in the real world:


“A recent study, no shocker to real climatologists (but perhaps to climate doomsayers), demonstrates this simple physics. It appears in the latest SciencExpress, and it shows that the vast majority of the Antarctic landmass is rapidly gaining ice and snow cover”.

Like we said, this should shock no climatologist. But consider the “profession” of environmental journalism, which ran these headlines just one teensy month ago:
“Antarctic glaciers shrink” –The Baltimore Sun, April 22, 2005
“Study shows Antarctic glaciers shrinking” –Associated Press, April 22, 2005
“Vanishing glaciers: Antarctica’s big melt” –The Australian, April 23, 2005
“New study points to big melt in Antarctica” – Sci-Tech Today, April 22, 2005

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...rming-snow-job/

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2007
Antarctica Ice Cap Growth Reaches Record High Levels (Photos)


The Southern Hemisphere sea ice area narrowly surpassed the previous historic maximum of 16.03 million sq. km to 16.17 million sq. km. The observed sea ice record in the Southern Hemisphere (1979-present) is not as long as the Northern Hemisphere. (meaning it has not been tracked as long as the North Pole) Prior to the satellite era, direct observations of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice edge were sporadic.”

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/10/...th-reaches.html
scubatim
Headline: A cold spell soon to replace global warming. Consensus. Yep. rolleyes.gif
Dingo
QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 3 2008, 02:07 PM) *


Thanks for the link Ted. I didn't know you had hopped on the GW bandwagon. I guess it was inevitable.

QUOTE
Climate scientists have long suspected that warming the oceans around a very cold continent is likely to dramatically increase snowfall. Consider Antarctica. It’s plenty chilly, dozens of degrees below freezing, and it’s surrounded by water. The warmer the water, the greater the evaporation from its surface, and, obviously, the more moisture it contributes to the local atmosphere.

So, when this moisture gets swirled up by a common cyclone, do you think it’s going to fall as rain in Antarctica?

A point I and others who support the near consensus of scientists on AGW have made many times. Warmer oceans from global warming create greater evaporation and therefore increase snowfall in the Antarctic. Thanks for reaffirming my point.

Of course he spins it as a positive.
QUOTE
Recent climate changes have led to a fairly large warming trend in the region around the Antarctic Peninsula—the spit of land the stretches from the Antarctic mainland towards the southern tip of South America. In this region, comprising about 2% of the entirety of Antarctica, significant changes associated with rising temperatures are being observed—floating ice shelves are breaking up, glaciers are shrinking, seal species are moving in, grasses, tiny shrubs and mosses are thriving, etc. By most accounts, transitioning from a relatively barren, frozen landscape to a warmer, less frozen one would seem to be a positive development, as this change presents a growing opportunity for increased species richness and diversity. But, in today’s world, dominated by an eagerness to demonstrate how human activities are impacting the innocent “natural” species of the world, all change is bad.


The point is he is not expressing any argument with the IPCC over the FACT of global warming. Oh yes I found the picture of Antartica quite interesting and informative.

In the meantime you might want to save a little sympathy for the poor penguins.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L11693128.htm

QUOTE
"The Antarctic penguins already have a long march behind them," Anna Reynolds, deputy director of WWF's Global Climate Change Programme, said in a statement at the Bali climate talks.

"Now it seems these icons of the Antarctic will have to face an extremely tough battle to adapt to the unprecedented rate of climate change."

The report, "Antarctic Penguins and Climate Change", said sea ice covered 40 per cent less area than it did 26 years ago off the West Antarctic Peninsula, leading to a fall in stocks of krill, the main source of food for the chinstrap and gentoo penguins.

In the northwestern coast of the Antarctic peninsula, where warming has been fastest, populations of adelie penguins have dropped by 65 percent over the past 25 years, it said.


And yes there are scientists who have a bone to pick with the IPCC. Some think they have underestimated the consequences of global warming on the Antarctic.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.c...jectid=10421304

QUOTE
it fails to stress that climate change is already having a severe impact on the continent and will continue to do so for the rest of century.

Critics claim at least a quarter of the sea ice around Antarctica will disappear in that time, although this forecast is not mentioned in the study.
--------------------------------------------
"The greatest temperature rise on earth during the past five decades has been found on the Antarctic Peninsula, which stretches north from the continent towards South America," said Dr John Turner. "Temperatures have risen 5C on the peninsula."

That figure is 10 times the average global temperature rise for the same period.

In addition, researchers reported in October that in just over a month, an entire ice shelf, four times as big as Lake Taupo, had disintegrated and disappeared, with its loss directly linked to man-made global warming.

Yet there is no mention of these events in the draft version of the panel's report.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yeah I get you Scubatim. Gore is a politician and he should have received the Nobel Prize by video conference and unfettered capitalism will take care of any lingering problems and millions of years ago Greenland had forests. So we really don't have anything to worry about. Just have faith that everything is cool and keep the government's cotton picking hands off the GW business and end the conspiracy of tax, spend and grab by the globalists, who are fronted by the vast majority of climate scientists.

I think I touched all the important bases right? You are definitely in the mainstream of the denialists. From what I've seen I don't think there are very many who would find fault with your views. Also I think there are some 911 conspiracy folks who would like to get in touch with you. They've got the facts and figures to expose the COVERUP. It was the CIA and the Mossad don't you know.
CruisingRam
Scubatim- the real issue to me here is "follow the money"- who is trying to discredit the majority of climatologists in the world, rather than publish in acredited journals a rebuttal to the majority of these models?

What we have mostly, is a smearing of the messenger, instead of any real rebuttal to the evidence presented. First it was "the jury is out on global warming"- well, it turns out, the jury did return a verdict some time ago. IT has been a full court press by those groups that stand the most to lose from having to change thier behaviors, and most of those poeple reside in the US. rolleyes.gif

Ya, we need to curb our behavior, show some restraint and self control, and stop emmiting so much global warming polluntants.

So far, the most someone has mentioned here is like 140 billion dollars it will cost.

To put that in perspective, we are talking over 1.6 Trillion dollars on the war in Iraq, over 140 billion for the Savings and loan bailout- in fact, we are still paying for that one. It looks like taking care of returing injured vets will be over a trillion as well, over the course of thier lives.

So what is the big deal?
Ted
Thanks for the link Ted. I didn't know you had hopped on the GW bandwagon. I guess it was inevitable.


Very funny. Actually the story above – is a lot more to the point: Hopefully we come to our senses before wasting any real money

MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) – Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.
Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.
This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.
Dingo
QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 3 2008, 07:39 PM) *
Thanks for the link Ted. I didn't know you had hopped on the GW bandwagon. I guess it was inevitable.


Very funny. Actually the story above – is a lot more to the point: Hopefully we come to our senses before wasting any real money

MOSCOW. (Oleg Sorokhtin for RIA Novosti) – Stock up on fur coats and felt boots! This is my paradoxical advice to the warm world.
Earth is now at the peak of one of its passing warm spells. It started in the 17th century when there was no industrial influence on the climate to speak of and no such thing as the hothouse effect. The current warming is evidently a natural process and utterly independent of hothouse gases.
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason—solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.
This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.

Yes, I already read the link Ted. The latest cracker jack from Outer Slobovia has his own pet theory about global warming. Ted, if it's such slam dunk material why doesn't he have it vetted by other scientists in the field and then published in a respected scientific journal? It's in the process of give and take that something resembling true science emerges.

In the mean time you might want to check out this brochure on the IPCC and see what real cooperation by folks all over the world means, scientists studying the latest scientific publications and conferencing continuously on the unsure points. It's really a clearinghouse of science is what it is.

http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/10th-anniversary/an...ry-brochure.pdf

Here's the IPCC forth assessment report sort of broken down. Why don't you get serious and do a run through and tell us what you don't like about its analysis. I'm all eyes and ears. Then you can get back to your cranks in Lower Slobovia who think its all in the wobble. sleeping.gif

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-syr.htm
Google
TedN5
QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 3 2008, 02:07 PM) *
Meanwhile in the real world:


“A recent study, no shocker to real climatologists (but perhaps to climate doomsayers), demonstrates this simple physics. It appears in the latest SciencExpress, and it shows that the vast majority of the Antarctic landmass is rapidly gaining ice and snow cover”.

Like we said, this should shock no climatologist. But consider the “profession” of environmental journalism, which ran these headlines just one teensy month ago:
“Antarctic glaciers shrink” –The Baltimore Sun, April 22, 2005
“Study shows Antarctic glaciers shrinking” –Associated Press, April 22, 2005
“Vanishing glaciers: Antarctica’s big melt” –The Australian, April 23, 2005
“New study points to big melt in Antarctica” – Sci-Tech Today, April 22, 2005

http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...rming-snow-job/

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2007
Antarctica Ice Cap Growth Reaches Record High Levels (Photos)

The Southern Hemisphere sea ice area narrowly surpassed the previous historic maximum of 16.03 million sq. km to 16.17 million sq. km. The observed sea ice record in the Southern Hemisphere (1979-present) is not as long as the Northern Hemisphere. (meaning it has not been tracked as long as the North Pole) Prior to the satellite era, direct observations of the Southern Hemisphere sea ice edge were sporadic.”

http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2007/10/...th-reaches.html


Still clutching at any piece of garbage you find on the Web? 2005 is not recent in this field. To begin with, until the last few years, the consensus view of climate scientists was that a warming world would initially see more precipitation fall in the ice desert of Antarctica gradually adding to the ice cap while the periphery melted. It was assumed that this would act to slow sea level rise produced by the expansion of a warming ocean and melting glaciers and a melting Greenland ice cap. Satellite measurements of the mass of the ice cap have indicated that this assumption was incorrect. In fact, Antarctica is losing about 36 cubic miles of ice each year. Here is a major media source article summarizing this finding.

QUOTE
Joining the growing list of places on this planet that are melting, Antarctica is losing about 36 cubic miles (150 cubic kilometers) of ice every year, scientists reported Thursday.

For comparison, Los Angeles consumes roughly 1 cubic mile of fresh water a year.


Here is a link to the peer reviewed article in Science describing these measurements. You can read the abstract but will need a subscription to read the full article.

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Using measurements of time-variable gravity from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites, we determined mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet during 2002–2005. We found that the mass of the ice sheet decreased significantly, at a rate of 152 ± 80 cubic kilometers of ice per year, which is equivalent to 0.4 ± 0.2 millimeters of global sea-level rise per year. Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.


The sea ice change is an entirely different matter. It is true that sea ice around Antarctica reached a record extent for at least the last 30 years but even the chart reproduced in your article shows that this anomaly is not seriously outside the normal range and that Antarctic sea ice extend has been fairly stable over time. (Contrast this with the dramatic reduction in Arctic sea ice over time). The influences on the extent of sea ice around Antarctica are not well understood and are being studied. One influence appears to be wind conditions. One study I encountered attributed a substantial influence to the Enso cycle (El Nino versus El Nina) with ice expanding on opposite sides of the continent depending on which part of the cycle we are in.
CruisingRam
TedN5- it looks like both sides are right to a degree, now that the MSM is starting to report on this scientific finding:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080103/ap_on_...RQzU_jHQLVxieAA

Overland and scientist Mark Serreze disagree over which effect — man-made or natural — was the big shove that pushed the Arctic over the edge, but they agreed that overall it's a combined effort.

Would you except a "both" answer? I doubt Ted will, because it actually does atribute some of it to man, which he seems to reject science over any crackpot on the web that just happens to agree with him. rolleyes.gif
scubatim
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Jan 4 2008, 01:15 PM) *
TedN5- it looks like both sides are right to a degree, now that the MSM is starting to report on this scientific finding:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080103/ap_on_...RQzU_jHQLVxieAA

Overland and scientist Mark Serreze disagree over which effect — man-made or natural — was the big shove that pushed the Arctic over the edge, but they agreed that overall it's a combined effort.

Would you except a "both" answer? I doubt Ted will, because it actually does atribute some of it to man, which he seems to reject science over any crackpot on the web that just happens to agree with him. rolleyes.gif

I can agree with the "both" answer. I just have a hard time swallowing that man is solely or mainly the cause, especially since the world has been warming and cooling for 4 billion years all by itself. I will admit that man has poluted the environment, and to some extent contributing to global warming. The two issues brought up by the "consenus" group that I can't agree with is that man is the driving force behind global warming and that governmental control is the answer.
CruisingRam
Scuba- but we do live in an essentially closed system. I do believe that man has set into action a response by nature, on a global scale.

the really interesting part about this, in terraforming models for mars- what we are doing here with greenhouse gases and such- is exactly what we need to do on mars to heat it up. hmmm.gif
scubatim
QUOTE(CruisingRam @ Jan 4 2008, 01:38 PM) *
Scuba- but we do live in an essentially closed system. I do believe that man has set into action a response by nature, on a global scale.

the really interesting part about this, in terraforming models for mars- what we are doing here with greenhouse gases and such- is exactly what we need to do on mars to heat it up. hmmm.gif

I don't believe that we have set into action. I don't think we have helped things, but I don't believe that we are the driving force either.

Here is a question that I can't find an answer to, or even take a stance on. If CO2 isn't the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, how much of a difference would really be made by controlling that particular gas, and not the others?

I went to the Energy Information Administration (I didn't even know such a bureaucracy existed) and found some interesting points.
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Many gases exhibit these “greenhouse” properties. Some of them occur in nature (water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide), while others are exclusively human-made (like gases used for aerosols).

Let's take water vapor, are we to control the emission of water vapor? If not, why? If so, how?
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Given the natural variability of the Earth’s climate, it is difficult to determine the extent of change that humans cause.


Then I started to wonder what greenhouse gas had the greatest affect on the climate. I found this interesting:
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The most important players on the greenhouse stage are water vapor and clouds. Carbon dioxide has been increased to about 0.038% of the atmosphere (possibly from about 0.028% pre-Industrial Revolution) while water in its various forms ranges from 0% to 4% of the atmosphere and its properties vary by what form it is in and even at what altitude it is found in the atmosphere.

In simple terms the bulk of Earth's greenhouse effect is due to water vapor by virtue of its abundance. Water accounts for about 90% of the Earth's greenhouse effect -- perhaps 70% is due to water vapor and about 20% due to clouds (mostly water droplets), some estimates put water as high as 95% of Earth's total tropospheric greenhouse effect (e.g., Freidenreich and Ramaswamy, “Solar Radiation Absorption by Carbon Dioxide, Overlap with Water, and a Parameterization for General Circulation Models,” Journal of Geophysical Research 98 (1993):7255-7264).

Link

So, just out of pure ignorance, if water vapor has the most abundent affect on our climate, and carbon dioxide is only about 0.038% of the atmosphere, why the attack on carbon dioxide only?
Dingo
QUOTE(TedN5 @ Jan 4 2008, 10:47 AM) *
Still clutching at any piece of garbage you find on the Web? 2005 is not recent in this field. To begin with, until the last few years, the consensus view of climate scientists was that a warming world would initially see more precipitation fall in the ice desert of Antarctica gradually adding to the ice cap while the periphery melted. It was assumed that this would act to slow sea level rise produced by the expansion of a warming ocean and melting glaciers and a melting Greenland ice cap. Satellite measurements of the mass of the ice cap have indicated that this assumption was incorrect. In fact, Antarctica is losing about 36 cubic miles of ice each year. Here is a major media source article summarizing this finding.

QUOTE
Joining the growing list of places on this planet that are melting, Antarctica is losing about 36 cubic miles (150 cubic kilometers) of ice every year, scientists reported Thursday.

For comparison, Los Angeles consumes roughly 1 cubic mile of fresh water a year.


Here is a link to the peer reviewed article in Science describing these measurements. You can read the abstract but will need a subscription to read the full article.

Well that kicks the Ted-Dingo thesis all to hell. Thanks for the update. I should have been on it.

Here's an interesting article which deals with two issues. First it supplies an explanation for why a major portion of the Antarctic is getting cooler - think ozone hole with associated winds and then it deals with the issue of Antarctic ice loss-gain. Apparently up until recently there was a belief that on balance Antartica was gaining total ice mass but now that has changed. Apparently it's gaining more in the interior and losing more at the periphery. On balance it is losing more. Still the article remains equivocal about the future of the Antarctic ice loss-gain equation.

http://environment.newscientist.com/channe...-change/dn11648

QUOTE
It is clear that the Antarctic Peninsula, which juts out from the mainland of Antarctica towards South America, has warmed significantly. The continent’s interior was thought to have warmed too, but in 2002 a new analysis of records from 1966 to 2000 concluded that it has cooled overall.
------------------------------------------------
So what is happening in Antarctica? The cooling is due to a strengthening of the circular winds around the continent, which prevent warmer air reaching its interior. The increased wind speeds seem to be a result of cooling in the upper atmosphere, caused by the hole in the ozone layer above the pole, which is of course the result of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) pollution.

Confusingly, it appears that one human impact on the climate – the Antarctic ozone hole – is currently compensating for another, global warming. If the ozone layer recovers over the decades as expected, the circular winds could weaken, resulting in rapid warming.
---------------------------------------------------------
Finding out what is actually happening to the ice is not easy. Radar measurements of the height of the ice over parts of the continent suggest that the huge East Antarctic ice sheet grew slightly between 1992 and 2003.

A more recent study based on satellite measurements of gravity over the entire continent suggests that while the ice sheets in the interior of Antarctica are growing thicker, even more ice is being lost from the peripheries. The study concluded that there was a net loss of ice between 2002 and 2005, adding 0.4 millimetres per year to sea levels (see Gravity reveals shrinking Antarctic ice). Most of the ice was lost from the smaller West Antarctic ice sheet.
------------------------------------------------------------
The IPCC's latest prediction for sea level rise – 0.2 to 0.6 metres by 2100 – takes this ice loss into account but it is based on the assumption that the rate of ice loss will remain constant. Many researchers think this is unrealistic and that the rate of ice loss will accelerate, which means that sea level could rise much faster than predicted. But no one knows for sure what will happen and the prediction of a net gain of ice in Antarctica could yet turn out to be correct.


Hmmm, I wonder if this will inspire them to feed CFCs into the Antarctic region to slow down global warming. hmmm.gif

----------------------------------------------------

I'm adding an edit because I just caught this.

QUOTE
Sc. So, just out of pure ignorance, if water vapor has the most abundent affect on our climate, and carbon dioxide is only about 0.038% of the atmosphere, why the attack on carbon dioxide only?

I'm not going to argue about percentages but water vapor is not a driver. CO2 is. As we add additional CO2 to the environment we increase the temperature which then results in greater water vapor, as water vapor quantity overall is roughly a function of temperature. Water vapor then makes its own greenhouse contribution but basically it's about CO2 causing a double whammy.
Ted
QUOTE
Yes, I already read the link Ted. The latest cracker jack from Outer Slobovia has his own pet theory about global warming. Ted, if it's such slam dunk material why doesn't he have it vetted by other scientists in the field and then published in a respected scientific journal? It's in the process of give and take that something resembling true science emerges.

I have posted “peer reviewed” science and it matters little. To the fanatics you are either on their side or your “science” – reviewed or not is junk. All you need to do is say “only our reviewers” count. Or they are “deniers”.

Since we cannot see any clear trend that even approaches the Gore nonsense it should not be long before the whole scam collapses into the garbage bin of history.

QUOTE
Here's the IPCC forth assessment report sort of broken down. Why don't you get serious and do a run through and tell us what you don't like about its analysis. I'm all eyes and ears. Then you can get back to your cranks in Lower Slobovia who think its all in the wobble.

I will read through it and comment later. I am specifically VERY interested in HOW they plan to dramatically reduce CO2 output? Any idea what that is? The last plan that did not include the worlds largest producer (and fastest growing) of CO2 – China or India.

Now tell me that all theses folks have “signed on”. ……………………………. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
Dingo
QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 6 2008, 07:16 PM) *
QUOTE
Yes, I already read the link Ted. The latest cracker jack from Outer Slobovia has his own pet theory about global warming. Ted, if it's such slam dunk material why doesn't he have it vetted by other scientists in the field and then published in a respected scientific journal? It's in the process of give and take that something resembling true science emerges.

I have posted “peer reviewed” science and it matters little.

Where?
QUOTE
QUOTE
Here's the IPCC forth assessment report sort of broken down. Why don't you get serious and do a run through and tell us what you don't like about its analysis. I'm all eyes and ears. Then you can get back to your cranks in Lower Slobovia who think it's all in the wobble.

I will read through it and comment later.

Good.

QUOTE
I am specifically VERY interested in HOW they plan to dramatically reduce CO2 output.


The IPCC Assessment Reports are principally about the science, not the politics. So try and take it serious without prefacing each thought with "China first." Sometimes it helps to get your science right before immediately latching on to the first available political rag doll.
Ted
QUOTE
Where?

ABOVE.

QUOTE
The IPCC Assessment Reports are principally about the science, not the politics. So try and take it serious without prefacing each thought with "China first." Sometimes it helps to get your science right before immediately latching on to the first available political rag doll.




Ya right – and this is why we had the Tokyo treaty that is as worthless today as it was 5 years ago? Come on – “science” is somehow asking us to blow 500 + billion/year for no possible CO2 reduction – so please spare me.

You want to believe that temperature rise is CO2 driven and “man made” – GREAT. Just don’t ask me to support some stupid 500 billion $$$ scheme that has no chance in hell of working. Even if they are right, without CHINA. OK?
TedN5
QUOTE
(Ted)
So, just out of pure ignorance, if water vapor has the most abundent affect on our climate, and carbon dioxide is only about 0.038% of the atmosphere, why the attack on carbon dioxide only?


I've refuted this argument from you several times in the past so I don't expect to get though to you this time. However, just on the off chance that someone else might be confused by the spattering of facts you threw out, here is one more explanation.

Water vapor is indeed the most powerful greenhouse gas. However, since the world is 3/4th water, the amount retained in the atmosphere is dependent upon the temperature (and pressure). All other things being equal, the amount of water vapor retained in the atmosphere will go up when temperature goes up. Any amount that causes relative humidity to exceed 100% (the Dew Point) will precipitate out. For this reason climate science has treated water vapor as a feedback phenomena for any temperature forcing (CO2, Methane, aerosols, solar, or another).

There is nothing new or mysterious about the CO2 forcing causing temperature increases which in turn cause increased retention of water vapor and more greenhouse warming. Here is one fairly simple account from a Realclimate translation of a French article refuting an alternative forcing scheme.

QUOTE
The anticipated increase in temperature was predicted long before it was detectable in the atmosphere, indeed long before it was known that atmospheric CO2 really was increasing; it was first predicted by Arrhenius in 1896 using extremely simple radiation balance ideas, and was reproduced using modern radiation physics by Manabe and co-workers in the 1960's. Neither of these predictions rests on general circulation models, which came in during subsequent decades and made more detailed forecasts possible.

Still, the basic prediction of warming is founded on very fundamental physical principles relating to infrared absorption by greenhouse gases, theory of blackbody radiation, and atmospheric moist thermodynamics. All these individual elements have been verified to high accuracy in laboratory experiments and field observations. For a time, there was some remaining uncertainty about whether water vapor feedback would amplify warming in the way hypothesized in the early energy balance models, but a decade or two of additional observational and theoretical work has shown that there is no real reason to doubt the way in which general circulation models calculate the feedback. When modified by inclusion of the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols, the theory gives a satisfactory account of the pattern of 20th and 21st century temperature change.
(Empahsis mine).
scubatim
QUOTE(TedN5 @ Jan 7 2008, 11:55 AM) *
QUOTE
(Ted)
So, just out of pure ignorance, if water vapor has the most abundent affect on our climate, and carbon dioxide is only about 0.038% of the atmosphere, why the attack on carbon dioxide only?


I've refuted this argument from you several times in the past so I don't expect to get though to you this time. However, just on the off chance that someone else might be confused by the spattering of facts you threw out, here is one more explanation.

Water vapor is indeed the most powerful greenhouse gas. However, since the world is 3/4th water, the amount retained in the atmosphere is dependent upon the temperature (and pressure). All other things being equal, the amount of water vapor retained in the atmosphere will go up when temperature goes up. Any amount that causes relative humidity to exceed 100% (the Dew Point) will precipitate out. For this reason climate science has treated water vapor as a feedback phenomena for any temperature forcing (CO2, Methane, aerosols, solar, or another).

Now it looks like you want to argue with Ted! w00t.gif I am the one that asked that question. You even went back to copy and paste the question, then lambasted me for asking a simple question. I even admited ignorance of the issue. Do you have any stress releiving activities you can take part of, because you jumped on that like stink on, well, you know.

Just curious, how are the facts that I put in the thread "spattering"? Are they not true? Water vapor does not have an affect on the green house affect? I do like how your climate science has found a reason to ignore the most abundant green house gas. Thanks for pointing that out. Good day!
Ted
ohmy.gif
QUOTE
There is nothing new or mysterious about the CO2 forcing causing temperature increases which in turn cause increased retention of water vapor and more greenhouse warming. Here is one fairly simple account from a Realclimate translation of a French article refuting an alternative forcing scheme.


Problem is, as always there is no proof I have seen of “CO2 forcing”. I see lots of theory and your buddies at RC say it both ways but the reality is it has not been shown conclusively that CO2 is forcing temperature rise to the extent we have seen.

QUOTE
Dingo
It is clear that the Antarctic Peninsula, which juts out from the mainland of Antarctica towards South America, has warmed significantly. The continent’s interior was thought to have warmed too, but in 2002 a new analysis of records from 1966 to 2000 concluded that it has cooled overall


And here at the end is the key line:

But no one knows for sure what will happen and the prediction of a net gain of ice in Antarctica could yet turn out to be correct. ohmy.gif wink.gif
Dingo
QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 7 2008, 11:35 AM) *
And here at the end is the key line:

But no one knows for sure what will happen and the prediction of a net gain of ice in Antarctica could yet turn out to be correct. ohmy.gif wink.gif

Nice little bit of cherry picking my post Ted. I guess it isn't big revelation to those who have read your posts that you will do anything to defend your 2+2=5 world whether on Global Warming or Iraq.

For those interested here is the piece Ted cherry picked off of.

QUOTE
The IPCC's latest prediction for sea level rise – 0.2 to 0.6 metres by 2100 – takes this ice loss into account but it is based on the assumption that the rate of ice loss will remain constant. Many researchers think this is unrealistic and that the rate of ice loss will accelerate, which means that sea level could rise much faster than predicted. But no one knows for sure what will happen and the prediction of a net gain of ice in Antarctica could yet turn out to be correct.


One would never know from your dishonest post that the Antarctic according to the latest evidence was losing ice and that the cooling that is occurring is probably a local phenomena believed to be induced by the ozone hole overhead.

I guess to you this is all just a football game and you're just a cheer leader for one side. Who cares about the evidence. wacko.gif
Ted
QUOTE
Nice little bit of cherry picking my post Ted. I guess it isn't big revelation to those who have read your posts that you will do anything to defend your 2+2=5 world whether on Global Warming or Iraq.


Yes and you are famous for it – that and ignoring any and all WMD data posted in favor nut jobs and one liners.


QUOTE
Who cares about the evidence


Obviously not you and TedN5 who basically say if you don’t “believe” completely you are simply a “denier” regardless of what you say and what “peers” review it.

By the way .2 to .6 meters is still a guess and .2 meters is 7.2 inches. Even if they are right and even if it was on the high side do ya think we could deal with this in 92 years?

In a linear that would be dealing with .07 - .22 inches a YEAR. Or should we spend 400-500 + billion a year? And in doing so FAIL because as you know and refuse to address the biggest producer, and the fastest growing producer of CO2 on the PLANET will not cut back CO2 – that is CHINA of course.


nemov
Have events over the last 2 years changed your opinion about global warming?

Nope... Hurricanes are down worldwide despite constant media attention and alarmism.

What kind of evidence would you require now to accept that weather events are being influenced by Global Warming

An unusually long period of violent weather that is unprecedented historically. The problem we have now is every time there's extreme weather someone is blaming global warming.

Is the media properly reporting unusual weather events? Did you know that hurricanes Dean and Felix made landfall as category 5 storms in Mexico and Nicaragua respectively? If so, where did you learn it?

Yes I knew that... I live in Florida, so hurricanes are reported quite throughly. However, the fact that the North Hemisphere is fairly inactive the past two years isn't reported at all.

QUOTE
The North Atlantic was not the only ocean that experienced quiet tropical cyclone activity. The Northern Hemisphere as a whole is historically inactive. How inactive? One has to go back to 1977 to find lower levels of cyclone energy as measured by the ACE hurricane energy metric. Even more astounding, 2007 was the 4th slowest year in the past half-century (since 1958)


The problem people fail to recognize is that with the advent of 24/7 cable news coverage the world can now see "extreme weather" every day and it's news! Extreme weather isn't a new phenomenon and the planet has been full of these events for millions of years. The only difference now is there are a determined number of scientists that have passed off a theory as fact.

Few people know that NASA screwed up the average temperatures due to a glitch. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II. I didn't see this on news. As John Tierney wrote in the New York Times a few days ago, the only thing that can accurately be predicted about 2008 is that there's a 100% chance of alarmism.

QUOTE
A year ago, British meteorologists made headlines predicting that the buildup of greenhouse gases would help make 2007 the hottest year on record. At year's end, even though the British scientists reported the global temperature average was not a new record -- it was actually lower than any year since 2001 -- the BBC confidently proclaimed, "2007 Data Confirms Warming Trend."

When the Arctic sea ice last year hit the lowest level ever recorded by satellites, it was big news and heralded as a sign that the whole planet was warming. When the Antarctic sea ice last year reached the highest level ever recorded by satellites, it was pretty much ignored. A large part of Antarctica has been cooling recently, but most coverage of that continent has focused on one small part that has warmed.


Scientists who question the theory would rather wait on the sidelines until this hysteria blows over than being labeled as "non believer." It's difficult to find a more politicized issue in the world than the weather.
Dingo
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 8 2008, 04:22 PM) *
Few people know that NASA screwed up the average temperatures due to a glitch. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II.

This is the scraping from the bottom of the barrel crap that seems to characterize AGW denialists. Anybody who read the above I bet assumed nemov was talking world temperatures. His own link shows that isn't true. These are temperatures for the USA and have little relevance to the important world temperature progression. On top of that a slight temperature adjustment was made in the temperatures for 1998 and 1934 that had each one changing their first and second highest positions(Practically a dead heat originally), meaning absolutely nothing but trumpeted as some sort of blow to AGW.

One is only left with really one question about these folks. What's their dog in this desperate hunt to discredit the overwhelming science behind AGW by making mountains out of molehills if they aren't actually dissembling about the facts. What's the payoff? It certainly isn't getting at the truth. sad.gif

Oh yeah Ted, you can throw out the China strawman until you are blue in the face but it says nothing about the climate science behind AGW. If your announcement is that we should all accept collective suicide in the face of China's escalating contribution of global warming gasses then that belongs on another thread. If you are maintaining the AGW thesis doesn't have good science behind it then the China canard has no relevance. I don't expect you to get this, partisan soul that you are rolleyes.gif , but truth is truth.
Amlord
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 8 2008, 10:23 PM) *
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 8 2008, 04:22 PM) *
Few people know that NASA screwed up the average temperatures due to a glitch. The warmest year on record is now 1934. 1998 (long trumpeted by the media as record-breaking) moves to second place. 1921 takes third. In fact, 5 of the 10 warmest years on record now all occur before World War II.

This is the scraping from the bottom of the barrel crap that seems to characterize AGW denialists. Anybody who read the above I bet assumed nemov was talking world temperatures. His own link shows that isn't true. These are temperatures for the USA and have little relevance to the important world temperature progression. On top of that a slight temperature adjustment was made in the temperatures for 1998 and 1934 that had each one changing their first and second highest positions(Practically a dead heat originally), meaning absolutely nothing but trumpeted as some sort of blow to AGW.

And if these entirely human-induced and calculations errors can occur in the United States, arguably the most advanced country in the world, what convinces us that there cannot be similar problems in other, more remote locations? The world is developing and the urban heat island effect is a real concern not only here, but especially in the developing world.

I have real concerns with the manipulations of data that seem to regularly occur. For example, reconciling the suraface temperature record with the satellite data or "filling in the holes" that was done in Levitus et al. (2000;
2005). .

A rather lengthy document: http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/...final-chap5.pdf

QUOTE
In summary, the behavior of complementary variables enhances our confidence in the reality
of large-scale warming of the Earth’s surface, and tells us that the signature of this warming
is manifest in many different aspects of the climate system. Pattern-based fingerprint detection
work performed with ocean heat content (Barnett et al., 2001; Reichert et al., 2002; Barnett
et al., 2005; Pierce et al., 2006), sea-level pressure (Gillett et al., 2003), and tropopause
height (Santer et al., 2003a, 2004)75 suggests that anthropogenic forcing is necessary in order
to explain observed changes in these variables.This supports the findings of the surface- and
atmospheric temperature studies described inSection 4.4. To date, however, investigations
of complementary variables have not enabled us to narrow uncertainties in satellite- and
radiosonde-based estimates of tropospheric temperature change over the past 2-3 decades.
Formal detection and attribution studies involving water vapor changes may be helpful in this
regard, since observations suggest a recent moistening of the troposphere, consistent with
tropospheric warming
.
Dingo
QUOTE(Amlord @ Jan 8 2008, 09:13 PM) *
I have real concerns with the manipulations of data that seem to regularly occur. For example, reconciling the suraface temperature record with the satellite data or "filling in the holes" that was done in Levitus et al. (2000;
2005). .


I don't see you presenting any proof of a pattern of manipulation. As far as the correction on the US annual temperatures, it was extremely minor. When measuring the weight of a person who is involved in a program of dieting, correcting a weight measurement from 232 lbs. 2 ounces to 232 lbs. 3 ounces is not meaningful. That's really what we're talking about here.

Also I would assume the accumulation of corrections would tend to cancel each other out unless you think the bulk of the climate science community has their finger on the scale. If that's what you think, let's see your proof.
Ted
QUOTE
Oh yeah Ted, you can throw out the China strawman until you are blue in the face but it says nothing about the climate science behind AGW. If your announcement is that we should all accept collective suicide in the face of China's escalating contribution of global warming gasses then that belongs on another thread. If you are maintaining the AGW thesis doesn't have good science behind it then the China canard has no relevance. I don't expect you to get this, partisan soul that you are , but truth is truth.



Yes I don’t happen to buy the "science” of climate change as being “forced” by CO2 produced by us. And lots of others don’t either. And the fact that 1934 was as warm as 1998 IS relevant since the man made CO2 level was much lower. But hell – why worry about the details – just believe! – Ya right. wink.gif

And my point about China is as relevant as it gets. Please don’t ask me to pay taxes that contribute to 400 billion + per year spent to reduce CO2 while the largest producer is off the hook. To do so would be just plain STUPID. ohmy.gif

Finally we see as Amlord has posted, that the technical “science” used often couches its uncertainty carefully. IMO the uncertainty of much of the “data” is suspect and well as the people who, like Mann, report it as “they see and interpret it”.
nemov
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 8 2008, 10:23 PM) *
This is the scraping from the bottom of the barrel crap that seems to characterize AGW denialists. Anybody who read the above I bet assumed nemov was talking world temperatures. His own link shows that isn't true. These are temperatures for the USA and have little relevance to the important world temperature progression. On top of that a slight temperature adjustment was made in the temperatures for 1998 and 1934 that had each one changing their first and second highest positions(Practically a dead heat originally), meaning absolutely nothing but trumpeted as some sort of blow to AGW.


Alarmists want it both ways... they want to trumpet "extreme" data and then deny it's important later on... The "1998" claim has been used for over ten years as the "tipping point" statistic and then when it's found to be a fraud it means "absolutely nothing." Unlike paid scientest who recieve money for research, there's no money out there to pay people to debunk all the bad science. By the time the science is debunked, new junk takes its place.

Alarmists have done a great job labeling anyone that has a differing viewpoint as a denier (like a holocaust denier). This is pure Klimaphobia. Things change all time, it's the only constant in the universe, but we're supposed to be scared of it. What are are we going to do about Mars? The Red planet is warming at the same rate as the Earth since 1970. All those emissions must be escaping our planet and floating over to Mars.

Is there any possibility the Sun plays a role in the climate fluctuations experience in our universe? hmmm.gif
Dingo
I get two silly nonrelevant responses to my posts(nemov doesn't even acknowledge the obvious USA-World distinction and Ted mindlessly goes along with that avoidance although the difference is like night and day) from the last two posters and it leaves me scratching my head. What's their dog in this hunt? Why this denialist frenzy without a defensible argument to go with it or even an obvious reason to bury their head in the sand? Is the prospect of the consequences so frightening? Hey, go out and have fun, it probably won't hit too hard until the next generation. But why hang around making silly indefensible arguments and try to cripple a solution? Is it a bush loyalist thing, a Limbaugh thing? I'm frankly baffled, but this kind of denialism with the same easily refutable arguments is ubiquitous on forums.

Maybe we need a thread on the psychology behind AGW denial. wacko.gif

How would this be for a good denialist argument?

Can you imagine, there are folks out there who have the insane idea that melting ice is associated with global warming. As any fool can see melting ice only creates more cold water causing the cold water to spread around the earth and cool things off.

Makes about as much sense as other stuff that's being peddled around here. tongue.gif
Ted
QUOTE
Hey, go out and have fun, it probably won't hit too hard until the next generation. But why hang around making silly indefensible arguments and try to cripple a solution? Is it a bush loyalist thing, a Limbaugh thing? I'm frankly baffled, but this kind of denialism with the same easily refutable arguments is ubiquitous on forums.


Hey you can believe what you like – I say the jury is still out. I am an engineer and I get lost in the technical nuances of much of the “data”. The issue is now more “politics” than science imo.

And “cripple a solution” – are you joking – WHAT exactly IS THAT. Please tell me and show me how it would work – can’t wait for your answer. And please don’t babble about what the world “could” do tell me what we CAN do while the biggest producer od CO2 is not playing in the game.

And if you say I am foolish because I am unwilling to blow 400+ BILLION/year to accomplish exactly nothing – I am guilty as charged.
nemov
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 10 2008, 02:35 AM) *
I get two silly nonrelevant responses to my posts(nemov doesn't even acknowledge the obvious USA-World distinction...

If ignoring my statement is a debate strategy, I have to admit it's a weak one.

QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 9 2008, 07:49 PM) *
Alarmists want it both ways... they want to trumpet "extreme" data and then deny it's important later on... The "1998" claim has been used for over ten years as the "tipping point" statistic and then when it's found to be a fraud it means "absolutely nothing."

The only thing "silly" is your insistence that the 1998 stat has never been cited by alarmists. All that's left in regards to your response to my points are tired rhetorical terms like "denier," "Bush loyalists," and "Limbaugh thing." If you're trying to make a point by partisan name calling, good job. This is precisely why anyone that says that climate change is a "non-political" issue is wrong.

Meanwhile a couple of news items you won't see...
  • Since 1978, the satellite record shows that Antarctica's sea ice has expanded by about half a percent a year.


Dingo
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 10 2008, 04:59 PM) *
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 10 2008, 02:35 AM) *
I get two silly nonrelevant responses to my posts(nemov doesn't even acknowledge the obvious USA-World distinction...

If ignoring my statement is a debate strategy, I have to admit it's a weak one.

There wasn't anything there. You just ignored my pointing out the obvious nit picky irrelevance of the USA data change. Ted as usual turns the topic into his advocacy of a world suicide pact, with China being our roll model. wacko.gif

QUOTE
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 9 2008, 07:49 PM) *
Alarmists want it both ways... they want to trumpet "extreme" data and then deny it's important later on... The "1998" claim has been used for over ten years as the "tipping point" statistic and then when it's found to be a fraud it means "absolutely nothing."

The only thing "silly" is your insistence that the 1998 stat has never been cited by alarmists.

It's the 1998 temperature for the world that is often pointed to, not the USA. The world 1998 figure remained the highest until 2005. Anybody claiming the 1998 American temperature, which even before was in a virtual tie with 1934, as a tipping point indicator would be laughed out of any serious scientific group.

QUOTE
Meanwhile a couple of news items you won't see..
[*]Since 1978, the satellite record shows that Antarctica's sea ice has expanded by about half a percent a year.

Earlier TedN5 showed the latest information indicated the opposite was occuring. While ice was accumulating in one region it was decreasing in another, with the balance being on the losing side.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11640662/

Still there is nothing in your link that is inconsistent with global warming. As the sea warms up it evaporates more moisture leading to more Antarctic snow fall. Here are some further comments from your link.
QUOTE
The overall growth in Antarctica's sea ice over the past two decades masks significant regional declines in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen Seas – the destination for glaciers flowing from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Researchers say these glaciers are losing ice to the sea faster than snow is replenishing the ice. Thus, the large regional drops in sea ice could also signal the presence of "a very big threat to glacier ice" on the continent, says Xiaojun Yuan, a polar scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y. The leading suspect: relatively warm water upwelling near the coast as a result of global warming's effect on wind patterns in the region.


QUOTE
[*]Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent now greater than last year

Anyone can look at the chart and see where the general trend is. A gain in a particular month does not an overall trend make.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_0oNRupXJ4-A/R4N8wN.../Picture+50.png

And to provide a longer term perspective here is a picture of arctic summer ice loss from 1979 to 2005.
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/image...ice-decline.gif

By the way, both your links make the case for global warming. It's hard to believe you can't see that.
JohnfrmCleveland
QUOTE(Ted @ Jan 10 2008, 07:23 PM) *
And if you say I am foolish because I am unwilling to blow 400+ BILLION/year to accomplish exactly nothing – I am guilty as charged.

QUOTE(Ted)
The sooner we drastically diminish out dependence on foreign oil the better.

(That second line came from the Iran thread tonight.)

I'm not sure where you got your $400 billion figure, but I don't want to get caught up in that. What I want to point out to you is that taking steps against global warming will accomplish something useful, even by your own reckoning. Making the auto industry raise mileage standards and developing alternative energy solutions will each serve to lessen the influence of Middle Eastern oil. Plus, pushed ahead with government funding and plain old profit motive, American technology in that area will undoubtedly move forward - a good thing.

Now, I've long since given up trying to convince you that global warming is real and is man's fault - you don't believe that data. Alternatively, you have used that $400 billion price tag to counter the argument that, even if GW might not be man's fault, we should take steps just in case the global warming crowd is correct. Finally, you have argued that as long as China and India are going to pollute, why should we bother lowering our own emissions? But what can you say against taking steps that lower our dependence on foreign oil? Trouble in the Middle East has cost us far more than $400 billion already, with no end in sight.
Amlord
Meanwhile, it snowed today in Bagdad for the first time in 100 years.

Of course, that's the fault of global warming as well, according to the article.

Again, allow me to reiterate my position: the globe is warming, but to some degree the cause of it and, more importantly, the effect of it, is still undetermined. Mars warms at the same rate, but the two aren't related. Of course, Mars can warm naturally while the Earth, somehow, cannot.

Skeptics are not going away. The list is growing.
Dingo
QUOTE(Amlord @ Jan 11 2008, 07:47 AM) *
Meanwhile, it snowed today in Bagdad for the first time in 100 years.

Of course, that's the fault of global warming as well, according to the article.

Again, allow me to reiterate my position: the globe is warming, but to some degree the cause of it and, more importantly, the effect of it, is still undetermined. Mars warms at the same rate, but the two aren't related. Of course, Mars can warm naturally while the Earth, somehow, cannot.

Skeptics are not going away. The list is growing.

Yeah I understand it is in a lot of areas. For instance these folks aren't taking conventional dogma lying down.

http://theflatearthsociety.org/forum//

The fight for truth is joined.

http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/zetcos08.gif

scubatim
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 12 2008, 10:17 AM) *
QUOTE(Amlord @ Jan 11 2008, 07:47 AM) *
Meanwhile, it snowed today in Bagdad for the first time in 100 years.

Of course, that's the fault of global warming as well, according to the article.

Again, allow me to reiterate my position: the globe is warming, but to some degree the cause of it and, more importantly, the effect of it, is still undetermined. Mars warms at the same rate, but the two aren't related. Of course, Mars can warm naturally while the Earth, somehow, cannot.

Skeptics are not going away. The list is growing.

Yeah I understand it is in a lot of areas. For instance these folks aren't taking conventional dogma lying down.

http://theflatearthsociety.org/forum//

The fight for truth is joined.

http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/zetcos08.gif

This relates to global warming how?
Dingo
QUOTE(scubatim @ Jan 12 2008, 01:09 PM) *
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 12 2008, 10:17 AM) *
QUOTE(Amlord @ Jan 11 2008, 07:47 AM) *
Meanwhile, it snowed today in Bagdad for the first time in 100 years.

Of course, that's the fault of global warming as well, according to the article.

Again, allow me to reiterate my position: the globe is warming, but to some degree the cause of it and, more importantly, the effect of it, is still undetermined. Mars warms at the same rate, but the two aren't related. Of course, Mars can warm naturally while the Earth, somehow, cannot.

Skeptics are not going away. The list is growing.

Yeah I understand it is in a lot of areas. For instance these folks aren't taking conventional dogma lying down.

http://theflatearthsociety.org/forum//

The fight for truth is joined.

http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/zetcos08.gif

This relates to global warming how?

By analogy to the debate that's developed, yes. You figure it out.
nemov
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 10 2008, 10:54 PM) *
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 10 2008, 04:59 PM) *

Meanwhile a couple of news items you won't see..
[*]Since 1978, the satellite record shows that Antarctica's sea ice has expanded by about half a percent a year.

Earlier TedN5 showed the latest information indicated the opposite was occuring. While ice was accumulating in one region it was decreasing in another, with the balance being on the losing side.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11640662/

Let me get this straight, you're using an article from March, 2006 to refute an article from January 10, 2008. That's very convincing...

QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 10 2008, 10:54 PM) *
By the way, both your links make the case for global warming. It's hard to believe you can't see that.

That's the great thing about Global Warming. Everything is proof that Global Warming exists, ice melting, ice freezing, oceans rising, oceans falling, temperatures falling, temperatures rising, rain increasing, and rain decreasing. No matter what the outcome is the "scientists" have been paid well enough to come up with a theory to protect the theory.

When it snows for the first time in 100 years it's global warming (no, I'm not making this up).
scubatim
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 12 2008, 04:31 PM) *
That's the great thing about Global Warming. Everything is proof that Global Warming exists, ice melting, ice freezing, oceans rising, oceans falling, temperatures falling, temperatures rising, rain increasing, and rain decreasing. No matter what the outcome is the "scientists" have been paid well enough to come up with a theory to protect the theory.

When it snows for the first time in 100 years it's global warming (no, I'm not making this up).

This has been my point all along, but there is nothing that I get in response. Also, I have seen where there is an argument that record cold temperatures are simply individual events, and anomalies like that are bound to happen, but when Katrina hit, it was definite evidence of Global Warming. The fires in California last year is another example of definite evidence of Global Warming. So, what we are saying is that individual events can point towards Global Warming, but can't point away from it. Talk about a swindle!
Dingo
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 12 2008, 02:31 PM) *
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 10 2008, 10:54 PM) *
QUOTE(nemov @ Jan 10 2008, 04:59 PM) *

Meanwhile a couple of news items you won't see..
[*]Since 1978, the satellite record shows that Antarctica's sea ice has expanded by about half a percent a year.

Earlier TedN5 showed the latest information indicated the opposite was occuring. While ice was accumulating in one region it was decreasing in another, with the balance being on the losing side.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11640662/

Let me get this straight, you're using an article from March, 2006 to refute an article from January 10, 2008. That's very convincing...

You're playing games Nemov. Your article doesn't tell you what date they are drawing from. Furthermore as I showed earlier the article is ambiguous on the ice loss matter if you read it through and makes it clear they support global warming. You at least ought to read your own links instead of just conveniently cherry picking.

But you want 2008? I'll give you 2008 although the date doesn't really mean anything special.
http://www.indybay.org/newsitems/2008/01/07/18470816.php

QUOTE
The leading U.S. climate scientist Dr. James Hansen responded via email saying "The most precise data on the mass of the ice sheets, from the gravity satellite, show that, overall, Antarctica is losing mass, as is Greenland, even though East Antarctica is gaining a small amount of mass."

"All of the models, and the observations, have the central parts of Greenland and Antarctica growing faster because of global warming. This is a consequence of warmer air holding more moisture, thus increasing snowfall. But the net effect of warming on both continental ice sheets is mass loss, the increased melting being a larger effect than the increased snowfall.


QUOTE
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 10 2008, 10:54 PM) *
By the way, both your links make the case for global warming. It's hard to believe you can't see that.

That's the great thing about Global Warming. Everything is proof that Global Warming exists, ice melting, ice freezing, oceans rising, oceans falling, temperatures falling, temperatures rising, rain increasing, and rain decreasing. No matter what the outcome is the "scientists" have been paid well enough to come up with a theory to protect the theory.

You forgot to throw in world government socialist control as part of the conspiracy. cry.gif

Why it is so hard for you folks to grasp that global warming theory is based on the average temperature for the whole world and not what happens in a particular area at a particular time. There will always be some example of where it has been unusually cold relative to preceding measurements. That goes both ways but the average works in favor of warming.

Perhaps part of it comes from failing to grasp how weather systems work, with the sun, gravity and the spinning earth contributing. Here is a good primer on the subject from pbs. It shouldn't be too hard to plug global warming into the mix.
Some great pictures and links included.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/elnino/anatomy/machine.html

QUOTE
Because the Earth is a globe, and not a flat board, the sun shines almost straight down on the tropics, baking them every day of the year. But at the poles, the angle is small and the sun's rays are weak, and the poles are therefore cold. Nature "abhors" this imbalance, and tries to fix it. As quickly as solar heat flows in to the tropics, it begins flowing out toward the poles, seeking to equalize the difference. The unrelenting march of this energy-on-the-move, from high concentration to low concentration, is the piston in the engine that propels weather.

When warm air leaves the tropics and heads toward the poles, cold air from near the poles is sucked back toward the tropics. This exchange sets up two-lane highways for air rushing to and from the tropics. These highways of air are called convection cells, and they are the reason wind blows.



scubatim
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jan 12 2008, 06:18 PM) *
You forgot to throw in world government socialist control as part of the conspiracy. cry.gif

If the GW pundits weren't running to every government demanding more taxes and governmental control, I wouldn't take that position. If the "consensus" wasn't a group of scientists working by direction of the UN (if you have forgotten, your group is the UNIPCC) The UN in that stands for United Nations. What else am I supposed to deduce?

QUOTE
Why it is so hard for you folks to grasp that global warming theory is based on the average temperature for the whole world and not what happens in a particular area at a particular time. There will always be some example of where it has been unusually cold relative to preceding measurements. That goes both ways but the average works in favor of warming.

With that argument, we have been warming for 10,000 years or since the end of the last little ice age. Wouldn't that point to natural occurances?