Upset weather is in the air, it's obviously struck the world of college football as of late. It turns out that Iowa may be quite interesting as a surging Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama are showing signs of overtaking Romney and Hillary respectively. This is a much more impressive feat in Huckabee's instance as he was a middle-pack candidate from the onset.

Please keep in mind that this is a multiple choice option poll. So easy, even a Lyndon LaRouche supporter could use it.

Questions for debate:

1.)What are the chances that Huckabee or Obama will win Iowa?

2.)Would an Iowa win matter?, why or why not?

3.)Are we seeing a general dissatisfaction with the current front runners?

Bonus Question:

4.)Who should drop out of the race after they finish 4th-100th in Iowa?

1.)What are the chances that Huckabee or Obama will win Iowa?

I haven't paid too much attention to the Democrat side of the race so I really don't know about Obama's chances in Iowa. I guess the polls show him doing pretty well, but I'm not sure how accurate polls are in a caucus state. I do think Huckabee has a pretty darn good chance of pulling a win there though on the Republican side. He has by far been the most impressive candidate in the various debates and he seems to connect pretty well with people. That's a pretty important thing in Iowa.



2.)Would an Iowa win matter?, why or why not?

It could, particularly for Obama if he can pull it off. Hillary's entire campaign has been based on her being the presumptive winner of the nomination. An Obama win in Iowa might derail that train. On the GOP side it's less clear I think. There are no clear front-runners really, despite what Rudy or Mitt might tell you and there are a whole lot of Republicans out there who haven't made up their minds yet. I am a Thompson supporter - for now - but as I've stated I think Huckabee is a darn good candidate and I wouldn't have any problem supporting him in the general election. He wins or even does well in Iowa as I think he will, and I'm going to take a real hard look at him. I think many other Republicans will as well.



3.)Are we seeing a general dissatisfaction with the current front runners?

No. I think we are seeing others being successful at advancing their ideas and running effective campaigns.



Bonus Question:

4.)Who should drop out of the race after they finish 4th-100th in Iowa?

Ron Paul. He's an idiot. Let him run on the Libertarian ticket and get a few thousand votes and raise a few million dollars off the Internet. He's the GOP's version of Howard Dean who by the way is also an idiot. It is ironic that both of them are MD's. No wonder there is a healthcare debate in this country.



Aquilla

1. Obama may pull off the upset. We'll know for sure if Hillary starts putting more assets into New Hampshire as a "firewall." But while a loss in Iowa wouldn't cripple her candidacy it would poke a big hole in her "inevitability" mystique. Huckabee is a little less likely to win because for all the great publicity he's enjoyed, he still lags far behind the Big Four (Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson) in money and/or organization. In the caucus process, organization is critical and Huckabee doesn't have it.

2. Iowa matters. Despite the fact that it isn't representative of the nation, because it's "retail politics" and candidates have to be on the ground meeting voters face-to-face instead of hiding behind pre-scripted events and media buys. Personal charisma goes a long way and that's something neither Huckabee or Obama lack. In a larger state which isn't so "hands on" they would be at a disadvantage.

3. Lord, I sure hope so. The media seems to be obsessed with a Rudy vs. Hillary throwdown, but most Americans (outside of the media, pundits and politics junkies) are only now starting to pay attention. We may still get Mayor Giuliani squaring off against Senator Clinton, but it's too soon to print up the ballots just yet.

4. Let's see....Gravel, Kucinich, Dodd, Biden and Richardson for the Dems and Hunter, Tancredo and maybe McCain for the Republicans. I think John Edwards is going to plod on until South Carolina, but it's not going to save him and Ron Paul is going to have enough money and popularity (at least with the technocrati) to keep going for a while. I wouldn't be surprised if Paul finally gives up the pretense of running for a GOP nomination he's never going to get and just launches an independent bid instead.

But as Dennis Miller says, "That's just my opinion. I could be wrong."

1.)What are the chances that Huckabee or Obama will win Iowa?

They both have strong potential in Iowa. People up there and over thataway a tad like straight shooters, candidates they can look into the eyes and get a sense of character and honesty. Both Obama and Huckabee have this quality about them. The lawyer doesn't come out, which I think is what keeps John Edwards down. Trial lawyers get this set of mannerisms about them that is condescending to the masses. Maybe I'm just sensitive to this due to a recent jury experience where a lawyer tried to explain the Fifth Amendment in a very painful manner. The judge called him on it.

Judge: Just what is it that you're trying to say, that the defendant does not have to take the stand?

Lawyer: That people get nervous when talking in public, and that . . .

Judge: Just say it.

Lawyer: . . . your mouth dries up and your brain doesn't . . .

Judge: Disregard what the lawyer for the defense has been saying. Does everyone on the jury understand the defendant's right to not testify against himself?

Jury: Nodding in agreement.

Judge: Move on.

It was hard not to laugh out loud.

2.)Would an Iowa win matter?, why or why not?

Everything matters. Some events matter more than others, but this doesn't show up until looking back on any particular election. Conventional wisdom says that New Hampshire is way more important, but that's just by statistics. There's no real reason for the correlation.

3.)Are we seeing a general dissatisfaction with the current front runners?

That's pretty much an understatement. Where the media seems to have this one wrapped up, the voters beg to disagree. I heard someone say that Huckabee is like the Jimmy Carter of the Republican Party. Remembering back to that 1976 election season, people were hungry for someone ethical in the White House after Nixon and Ford. Ford was ethical but pretty darn boring. The last name was not an asset as the rust belt began to degenerate. The name "Huckabee" has some interesting subliminal connotations. So does Obama, but that doesn't seem to make any difference. It may even play to the Iowan contrariness, whereas good old Huck Finn might play to the country side of things.

But I do see a shakeup coming down the road.

4.)Who should drop out of the race after they finish 4th-100th in Iowa?

It's too early for anyone with the bucks to not keep on going. It's just the first lap in a long race. This is a little reminiscent of 1990 and Bill Clinton's position right before Iowa. The Republicans should keep this in mind and not try to spin off Ron Paul to the Libertarians or make him run like Perot did. It'd be interesting though.

Another bit of interest is this attempt by a Libertarian to run as one of the Big Two in order to win office. I've seen that work at the local level and can't remember just offhand if it has ever been tried at the national level, at least during my voting time.

Ha! Love the poll choices nebraska29 .

1.)What are the chances that Huckabee or Obama will win Iowa?

2.)Would an Iowa win matter?, why or why not?

I think the chances are good that either of them can win Iowa. I think Obama needs it more because even if Huckabee wins, his probably 6th place finish in the NH primary will set him back. I dont have much faith in his campaign, especially when his statist positions become more clear. Obama could make a big splash in Iowa and ride it into the primaries which would be a big blow to Clinton. It would break her aura of 'inevitability' and may give her a real fight for the nom.

3.)Are we seeing a general dissatisfaction with the current front runners?

Oh of course. Personally, I hope the trend continues. Ron Paul is on pace to be the biggest GOP fund raiser for the 4th quarter. This gives him the ability to purchase a lot of air time even beyond NH and into SC and Nevada (where he could be another spoiler). People aren't dumb. They hear the candidates loud and clear and they are not hearing very good ideas or very different ones. This is a big election and people want change. Even if the candidate is just talking about change rhetorically (yea, short jab).

4.)Who should drop out of the race after they finish 4th-100th in Iowa?

When will Edwards please go on his merry way? He was a terrible Senator and a terrible running mate for Kerry. I think that Biden and Richardson should continue to chug along if they can since I respect both of them (i'd put money on Richardson getting the VP). On the GOP side, I would like Hunter and Tancredo to go away. Thompson's campaign is out of gas and McCain is at a crossroads. If he gets his but handed to him in NH, he may drop out. I think RP has raised too much money to just bow out of the race. If he does poorly in the early primaries (even though I think he will surprise many) then he should begin planning his independent campaign. There is no way that he will not run independent in my mind. But we shall see.

RP is not so selfish that he would basically guarantee the Democratic candidate the Presidency by running as an indepedent. The man cares about the country too much to do that. Plus in the last debate he said flat out "I have no intention of doing this(running as an Indy). I am a Republican."

I don't see McCain, Guiliani, Huckabee, Thompson, Romney, or Paul bowing out until at least New Hampshire, more likely Feb 5th. Hunter and Tancredo maybe should, but the others need to see how the different 'sectors' of the country view them.

Looks like Huckabee has a 20 point + lead over his Iowa rivals. Not bad for a guy who freed a rapist due to anti-Clinton zealots.

I guess it's never too early for the whacklib fringe to start jumping into the gutter. Oh well, as Governor Huckabee says, "As long as they're biting you on the rear end, it means you're ahead".

Aquilla

Yeah, the fact that republicans backed this guy getting freed, had nothing to do with the fact that the girl who accused him of rape was a relative of Bill Clinton. Just pure coincidence right? Back on topic-this story has gained no traction whatsoever, which is very surprisign to me given the seriousness of charges and lack of refuting sources out there. Huckabee continues to fly.

No clear leader in either party folks, this could be a fun one with Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. And no, Ron Paul isn't in the mix.