I'm vaguely surprised that nobody has come up with anything along these lines already, but here goes...

Give your predictions for the events of 2008, along with your reasoning for them, in one or more of the following subject areas:

• The US Presidential Election (Democratic and Republican nominees, and overall winner)
• Wider US Domestic politics
• International politics, by continent
• The War on Terror
• The entertainment industry
• US Housing Market
• Wider US Economy
• Oil & other commodity prices
• Global economy
• "Next big thing" in consumer electronics
• "Next big thing" in medicine
• "Next big thing" in global celebrity (i.e. someone who will be in all the papers next year who hasn't been, or hasn't been much, to date)
• "Next big thing" in global infamy (may be the same person as the last question!)
• Your personal prediction for 2008 that doesn't fit into any of the above categories

Be as serious (or as frivolous) as you like, but please don't break the rules. Happy New Year!

January-Deciding that he has more money than he knows what to do with, Michael Bloomberg announces an independent run for the presidency, thereby flushing down the toilet, thousands of dollars.

February-Baphomet's Advocate will suddenly decide that he is a liberal, and will change his moniker to AlGore's Advocate.

March-Mike will confirm long-time suspicions and announce that he is indeed, a libertarian.

April-The libertarian party section of the website will be dedicated to crashfourit, who along with Mike, advanced the libertarian cause on AD.

May-Aevans176 will march in a may day parade and represent his comrades at AD.

June-Jaime will close her 2,000th thread.

July-Nebraska29 will be hospitalized with third degree burns after attempting to light a handful of sparklers.

August-In a first, Alan Keyes will decline to run for dog catcher, thus, creating a year in which he didn't run and fail to win an office.

September-Paladin Elspeth makes her first post of the year on AD

October-President Bush announces that there will be no election and that he is dictator for life.
The crisis is adverted when Nancy Pelosi sends him some more plastic army figures to play with.

November-there will be fewer Ron Paul threads here on

November-Hillary will have won the election by a solid majority in November.

The US Presidential Election (Democratic and Republican nominees, and overall winner)

Republican nominee Romney. Democratic nominee Clinton. Winner Clinton.

Wider US Domestic politics
Starbucks will venture into that as of yet untapped luxury coffee market. Transfats will become legal again.

International politics, by continent
A great smoke will rise from the East where CFCs still spew in abundance, from whence many cheap and low quality consumer goods will be produced to flood the markets of fat people in the west who eat transfats (this may not happen until late 2008).

They will also have (another) major oil spill on-par with Exon's years ago, and it will fail to make headline news...again. Leading to some important philosophical questions that won't be discussed in 2008 but might make it to 2015. Namely, "If the toxins fall in China, and no one is around to care, do they really fall?"

The entertainment industry
Porn will be big. Madonna will kiss Britney Spears. And no one will care...again.

US Housing Market
The Hernandez family will take it in the shorts having to move after buying a house only six months ago. The year will be at best flat, but I’m not that hopeful.

Wider US Economy
Housing market downfall will (continue to) effect all of the market, as well as the value of the dollar.

Oil & other commodity prices
I doubt the price of oil will go up much more this year. The price of sugar might as the percentage of ethanol additive increases.

Global economy
America sneezes and most of the world catches at least a chill, too….

"Next big thing" in medicine
DARPA is working on a project to regrow limbs that might be promising. Some manufacturers in California just patented rice with the same proteins as breastmilk and I expect the next step to be something similar on the durg front, probably before the year’s end. At this point in time such products in the US don't need the level of clinical testing required of new drugs because it's considered a food source. I predict drug companies will make use of this barely-tapped market for that reason. *The possibilities via genetic tampering are endless.

*Europe will of course decry the new 'food science' and try to stand in the way of 'progress', but their cries will be ignored. I predict something very very bad happening with subsequent new drug foods, but not until they are well distributed, which won't happen until around the time some new Chinese proverb (like above) emerges.

Next big thing" in consumer electronics
Probably something related to pornography.

"Next big thing" in global celebrity (i.e. someone who will be in all the papers next year who hasn't been, or hasn't been much, to date)
Probably something related to pornography.

"Next big thing" in global infamy (may be the same person as the last question!)
Probably something related to pornography.

Your personal prediction for 2008 that doesn't fit into any of the above categories
Mitt Romney will leave his wife for Hillary Clinton.

In the year 2008:

It will be an even year, divisible by two.

A new leader of the free world will be chosen, somehow.

Taxes will be due on April 15. That will be in the springtime. It'll snow somewhere in the observable universe. And it will be a Tuesday.

The rich will get richer except for Paris Hilton, but we already know that. It will just be something to touch upon now and then.

Roosters will come home to roost but not the cows. They don't like to roost. Nor do they come home.

The word "awesome" will finally be banned from the English language. That'll be so cool.

Night will fall. The sun will rise. The wind will blow as the tides come and go. Pluto will still not be a planet, as if it cared.

Happy New Years!

I can soooo do this while intoxicated


Hilary edges out Obama and eventually beats John McCain, the dark horse of the republican party, to become the first female president of the United States.

Stagnant. Some superficial adjustments to border security.

Pfff

Osama Bin Laden gets captures with cooperation from Pakistan. Escalation of tension with Iran. The media focus leaves Iraq (moreso).

More Celebs getting "cured" in rehab.

What can I say? Housing prices continue to fall (Despite recent proclaimations of stablization)

US economy dips into negative GDP growth for one quarter with sparse growth in the other three quarters, creating something that is virtually, but not technically, a recession.

Oil goes above $100, then US officials will "discover" that reserves are larger than reported. Cartels will make noise about increasing production. Those two, combined with a weakening US economy, will drive Oil back down below $100 and perhaps even to $80 or $70.

China continues to let the yuan appreciate against the dollar in order to contain inflation, delomishing exports and helping to deflate an overheated chinese stock market. There will be talk of a Chinese recession in 2009. Latin america continues to advance, US and europe decline and Africa stays right where it is.

A new cell phone bigger and technologically superior to the Iphone will emerge. Wii will continue to dominate gaming market.

New antidepressants

uhhhhh

Read above

Jean jackets make a comeback.

* The US Presidential Election (Democratic and Republican nominees, and overall winner)
I think Hillary Clinton will win because more women will vote for her than for Barack Obama.


* Wider US Domestic politics
America will start to get really 'green' and suddenly the balance of criticism will shift.


* International politics, by continent
Europe will continue to decline as the EU takes over. Immigration will continue in massive numbers as the fertilty rate drops faster than ever. More and more city's will follow Brussell's to become Muslim majority enclaves where law and order gradually breaks down. The CAP will remain in place. The Constitution will be ratified by the political leadership under the guise of a 'treaty' despite wide spread opposition in the population.

Africa will continue to sink into the mire of political corruption as tradtional tribal politicas continue to replace the post colonial legacy. South Africa will continue to fall to bits. Kenyan democracy will be lost to corruption. Islam will continue to spread. AIDS will continue to spread.

Asia will get richer and more influencial, expcet in those Muslim nations where violence and sharia law prevail. Pakistan will further dissolve into factional, inter tribal civil war. China will continue to prosper by exporting cheap goods.

South America and central America will continue to be a cess pit of political corruption and left wing violence. Hugo Chavez will continue to bluster and brag whilst buying apparent success from his nations oil revenue's. His supporters will continue to support him no matter how obvious his inability to govern becomes. Fidel Castro wll be forced to step down by his failing health. Hopefully he will die and maybe Cuba will wake up from its decades long slumber.

North America will continue to struggle with rising prices as the legacy of the strong dollar continues. Americans will find themselves facing numerous problems but will continue to believe in themselves


* The War on Terror

Will continue until the day Hillary Clinton takes office, when it will become downgraded. Military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan will continue for a whhile then begin to falter as Hillary's backers pressure her to pull out. Eventually Iraq, Afghanistan and the so called war on terror will be lost just as al qaeda have predicted all along.


* The entertainment industry

Hollywood will continue to remake old films. Old bands will continue to try to come back and we will see the decline in creativity continue.


* Oil & other commodity prices

Prices will continue to rise, though the increase will likely slow down.


* Global economy

The rich will get richer. More poor people will be born and the imabalance will continue.


* "Next big thing" in consumer electronics

Something small, expensive and utterly superfluous


* "Next big thing" in medicine

Stem cell researchers will cure baldness and rich men will benefit whilst AIDS and cancer will remain uncurable.


* "Next big thing" in global celebrity (i.e. someone who will be in all the papers next year who hasn't been, or hasn't been much, to date)

There will be no 'big thing', only manfactured scandals to promote some product or other.


* "Next big thing" in global infamy (may be the same person as the last question!)

Iran will detonate a nuclear weapon.


* Your personal prediction for 2008 that doesn't fit into any of the above categories

will pick up as more Americans come online to debate the elections.



Bear in mind I am no oracle and do not have any gift for prediction.

The US Presidential Election (Democratic and Republican nominees, and overall winner)

Edwards will win the Iowa caucus and his populist message of confronting anti-democratic corporate power will catch fire. He will then team with Obama as his VP candidate and they will sweep the later primaries. (More hope than prediction). Romney will win the Republican nomination and pick Huckabee as his VP candidate. Edwards/Obama will win the general election.

Wider US Domestic politics

The majority of Democrats in Congress will continue to refuse to confront the war nor to begin impeachment proceedings against the VP or the President. In general, no one will really be held accountable for the horrendous mistakes and wholesale unconstitutional acts of the Bush Administration. The Democrats will pick up several of the vacant Republican Senate seats and a few House seats but their success will be limited because of a failure to draw a clear distinction between themselves and the disgraced Republicans.

International politics, by continent

North America - Canadian extraction of oil from tar sands will continue to expand but there will be increasing environmental challenges. The Canadian dollar will continue to increase in value versus the US dollar. Corruption will remain a serious problem in Mexico and the drug trade will remain a huge problem. There will continue to be serious confrontations between citizens and the corporate and rich land owner dominate central and state governments. Tensions with the US will increase as illegal immigration is interjected into the US election and farmers displaced by competition from US subsidized agricultural which is protected by NAFTA.

Central and South America - The left leaning but democratic movements will continue to spread while the US continues to covertly undermine them. The Amazon rain forest will continue to suffer major degradation.

Australia - While there might be some relief, the drought over the southern continent will continue and severely curtailing agricultural production. The new labor government will become a major advocate for serious curtailment of greenhouse gas releases.

SE Asia - The area will continue to grow economically. Indonesian (and other) rain forests will continue to be destroyed by timbering and clearing for palm oil and other agriculture.

TO BE CONTINUED!

Sorry, I spent a long time adding to this and then lost the post. My New Years Resolution is to copy all long posts to Word before submitting them. I'm not going to try to reconstruct my predictions now since the benefit in doing them is primarily in clarifying my own thinking. I may revisit this topic in a separate post later. I will only add here that I expect a long recession to start in 2008, that Iraq will continue to be a quagmire with expanding circles or instability, that both Afghanistan and Somalia will become increasingly difficult and that there will be little or no progress toward an Israeli/Palestinian accommodation.

The War on Terror
The entertainment industry
US Housing Market
Wider US Economy
Oil & other commodity prices
Global economy
"Next big thing" in consumer electronics
"Next big thing" in medicine
"Next big thing" in global celebrity (i.e. someone who will be in all the papers next year who hasn't been, or hasn't been much, to date)
"Next big thing" in global infamy (may be the same person as the last question!)
Your personal prediction for 2008 that doesn't fit into any of the above categories

Good stuff so far everyone!

Check your 2007 predictions and tell us how you did.

My Predictions from 2007:

1. We don't see troop reductions in Iraq until late 2007 and then only by a small percentage.
Close, right?
2. Castro finally kicks the bucket.
A few close calls
3. Some sort of environmental disaster happens somewhere in Asia.
I think I'm wrong here.
4. It's a year for another Tom Hanks megamovie.
Not sure. I don't watch enough movies. I bet I'm right though.
5. More morons continue to follow American Idol than American politics.
too easy
6. My garden will produce more in 2007, including our first lemons.
Tons of peppers and yes, our first lemons and lemonade.

My Predictions for 2008:

1. Something weird will happen at this year's Superbowl, not necessarily bad, just weird as in never happened before
2. The pollution at this summer's Bejing Olympics will be horrible
3. China will be at the center of a very embarrassing international incident regarding some sort of trade
4. Catholicism becomes the pop celebrity religion edging out scientology and kabbala
5. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be similar to 2007, slightly milder
6. The WGA strike will last until June
7. By the end of 2008, Americans will be really annoyed by the digital tv switchover ads we'll be bombarded with all year
8. The Yankees won't make it to any postseason games this year

Happy New Year!!

Last Year:

Democrats will start becoming corrupt and complacent
Complacent, yes, not corrupt, yet.

Hillary Clinton will deny the fact that she's been running to the center since 2004
She hasn't denied it, but the fact remains that she has been running to the center since 2004, if not earlier.

Catro won't die
As of now, 12:16 AM, January 2, 2007, Fidel Castro is undead.

Countdown with Keith Olbermann will be cancelled
Nope, and I'm glad, I'm starting to like Keith.

Ron Paul will be ignored by the media
Dude breaks two fundraising records and the best he can manage is a 9PM spot on Glenn Beck's show.

Barrack Obama will say the word "hope" more times than I say the word "the"
'Hope' Count: 3,280,353
'The' Count: 3,000,821

Brick, New Jersey will once again be the country's safest city
Nope, I think it came in as number 3, so not bad. Three cheers for defying New Jersey stereotypes!

The Jets will win the AFC East
No.

The Boston Red Sox will win the AL East
Yep, along with everything else. Best Sox team ever.

The New Jersey Devils will win the Atlantic Division
Check.

Northeastern University will win the Beanpot
Okay, so we got beat 4-0 by arch-rival [and safety school] Boston University in the first round. But this year is our year.

Now for this year's predictions:

Castro will die.

Hillary Clinton will defeat Rudy "9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11, 9/11" Giuliani in the 2008 Elections. I will write-in my vote for Ron Paul.

Hillary Clinton will slowly begin to govern in a manner that becomes more left-leaning as time passes.

Bill Clinton will have an affair with a White House staffer, but it will be kept under wraps.

A White House staffer will mysteriously commit suicide. She will shoot herself four times in the back and throw herself off of a tall building. No foul play will be suspected.

The Boston Red Sox will win the AL East

The New Jersey Devils will win the Stanley Cup

The Northeastern Huskies will win the Beanpot

The New York Times will continue to lose it's readership

Apple will release a $600 dollar phone that will be unimaginably cool.

Republicans will continue their Congressional election losing streak, losing more ground in the House and Senate.

CP

2008 Predicitions

1. Because of general dislike of Hilary the republicans actually retain POTUS.

2. Relations with China seriously suffer as various groups use the upcoming Olympics to make Brash moves that create an uproar.

3. Yankees make post season with ease.

4. becomes a huge national sensation pre election and Mike and Jaime sell to Rupert Murdoch for an undisclosed sum rumored to be in the FaceBook range. Jaime uses her power to have Wertz and Lord Helmet made the replacements for Hannity and Combs. Mike keeps breaking out in giggles and constantly checks his bank account online.

5. DTOM returns home and begins to preparation to run for public office. hires Leder and ConservPat as his campaign managers.

6. Several more GOP operatives get nailed in deviant sexual activities making a certain Northern bathroom stall seem tame.

7. Hockey becomes the highest rated sports programming in America.

8. Britney Spears ends her life.

9. Dennis Miller admits that he has jumped the shark and accepts his fate mcing boat shows.

Here's my answers to my own thread opener:

The US Presidential Election (Democratic and Republican nominees, and overall winner)

I think that the Democratic ticket will be Clitnon/Obama in some combination, and that their campaign will snowball in magnitude through the year to the point where it doesn't much matter who the GOP put up against them. I predict a Republican electoral meltdown analogous to the Tory collapse in the UK's 1997 General Election.

My prediction off the back of that for 2009 is a period of euphoria fro a month or two after the inauguration, followed by intense disillusionment when the very real appetite for a substantial change in direction in US national politics fails to materialise (analogous to the general contempt in which the UK Labour government is now held), resulting in even deeper cynicism in the traditional politics of GOP/Dem duality, corporate campaign financial hedging by donating to both sides, etc.

Wider US Domestic politics
State governments, led by California, will continue to enact environmental legislation that puts most of the world's more publicly "green" governments (most of Europe, New Zealand) to shame.

There will be a backlash against public displays of religious feeling in politics, generally, led by some scandal linked to Mitt Romney. (He's the Mormon guy, right? If not, imagine I typed "linked to the Mormon guy"). The Republican Party will move to publicly distance itself from the Religious Right, but not in time to benefit at the Presidential election.

International politics, by continent
South America will continue on a leftward drift, though always maintaining the appearance of free & fair democratic elections. Brazil, in particular, will become the talked-about "tiger" economy.

Australia's new government will align more obviously with their neighbours, adopting some of the green policies (and higher taxation) of New Zealand.

Africa will face more troubles of violent unrest. Kenya tips over into full-blown civil war, after decades of relative peace and stability. Mugabe will cling to power in Zimbabwe, resorting to ever more violent repression in doing so. Public dissatisfaction with the ANC government in South Africa will see street riots, though wider peace and faith in democracy will remain; the ANC will lose subsequent elections (not due this year, I think, but when they come I think the ANC will lose). This will be the spur that allows the boil of Zimbabwe to be lanced and Mugabe will either be assassinated or will be brought to trial in The Hague for crimes against humanity.

Meanwhile, "the West" and neighbouring states will do nothing to halt the violence in Darfur, which will continue unabated.

Nothing very interesting will happen in Europe - more of the same. Though in the UK, the wheels will fall of the resurgence of the Conservative party and there will, again, be pressure for resignation on leader David Cameron by the time of the autumn conference.

The War on Terror

The British will pull out of Basra altogether and shift their commitments to Afghanistan, while the USA does more or less the reverse process and shifts resources to Iraq. The surge will be widely viewed as a success, though a modest one, and the Iraqi government's own forces will be slow to develop such that they can take over responsibility for their own security, mainly because of militia infiltration.

Iraq and Afghanistan will both be more stable and peaceful by the end of the year, but attention will shift to Pakistan which will become the main worry, with the different tribes and provinces getting restive and by the end of 2008, it will look like nothing so much as Yugoslavia after the fall of communism, and begin to break up. India will be putting pressure on for this to happen, for its own reasons. This will give cause for grave concern and the world will seem even less safe at the end of 2008 than it does now.

Japanese domestic terror attacks will resume on a major scale using nerve gas, perhaps centred on the Olympics in China, reminding the rest of the world that not only do terrorist groups already have WMDs, but that the most dangerous ones are defined not by relgion but by their extremism.

The entertainment industry

There will be lots of noise surrounding the use of digital projection to allow fully lifelike 3D presentations, and Holloywood and the cinema exhibitors will use this as a marketing tool to increase attendance figures. Punters will be bemused by having their eyes virtually poed out by the geekboy directors overuse of their new toys.

Downloading will officially become the leading form of music sales in several markets (Japan, Korea and Scandinavia first, then the UK, USA and continental Europe).

The scriptwriters' strike in the USA will drag on into the summer, leading to a resurgence of live television. Chatshows will become more unscripted and will take a few steps towards being centred on interesting people talking about interesting things (rather than a procession of people selling their wares to someone who'd really rather have their own comedy show). This will suddenly halt and go back to "normal" when the writers go back to work, and ratings will plummet as a result.

As a last ditch attempt to fill airtime before the strike ends, one network will air a British drama series and sitcom in prime time (Doctor Who and Father Ted, if I had to guess), rather than doing what they usually do and remaking them with American writers and performers. Both will be unexpected ratings successes.

US Housing Market

More of a slouch than a slump - i.e. continued decline, and continued chaos in the "sub-prime" market (code for "people who we should never have lent that much money to"), but at a rate that feels more of an extended correction to an overvalued market than a recession.

Wider US Economy

The domestic consumers will want to consume less and pay of debt or even save a lot more, so retailers will suffer, but the jobs market will remain bouyant as manufacturing and creative industries experience a bit of a boom period, driven by strong exports to emerging consumer markets in China, India, Brazil and Indonesia and reawakened consumer demand in France, Germany, Italy and Japan.

Oil & other commodity prices

Oil will stay high, but other raw materials' (coal & ore minerals, etc.) prices will ease. The biggest inflationary pressures will be on food prices, as harvests fail in tropical areas and demand for oils and sugars for alternative automotive and heating fuels increases and begins to seriously compete for the same food, land and water resources that would otherwise be use to feed people (rather than engines). This will just make the political and social problems worse for most of Africa.

Global economy
In Europe, the French and German economies will strengthen, while domestic demand goes off the boil in the UK. Export sales from quiescent economies (like I think the UK will be, and I'll include the USA here for good measure) will keep them from full-blown recession, although some countries (probably including the US & UK) will

"Next big thing" in consumer electronics

Sony will demonstrate a home digital TV screen and gaming entertainment prototype that uses the same kind of "real" 3D technology the Hollywood will be pushing. It'll blow away everyone that sees it, but will need advances in optical storage technology beyond BluRay before it becomes a mass market option. Which Microsoft will beat them to anyway.

"Next big thing" in medicine

An experimental drug that almost completely removes metastasis in cancer will wow researchers, and the world's media, with their postiive results. Not quite the "cure" it is trumpeted as, it will be a major advance in cancer care and will eventually make the British university researchers who develop it into multi-billionaires.

"Next big thing" in global celebrity (i.e. someone who will be in all the papers next year who hasn't been, or hasn't been much, to date)

Amy Winehouse will be the biggest star on the planet, but only after she dies from a drug overdose in circumstances that aren't really that suspicious, but which are good enough for conspiracy theorists to mull over for the next 10 years.

The Diana Inquest in London will conclude that she died because she wasn't wearing a seatbelt while attempting to administer a lewd act in the back seat of a car being driven by someone way over the limit for drink and drugs. Mohammed Fayed will insist that this is still evidence of a conspiracy mainly because he can't admit to himself that his son's death is partly his own fault, and will appear on international TV to say so, where he will appear to most obsevers as bordeline insane (imagine Tom Cruise jumping on a sofa crossed with Norman Bates at the end of Psycho - "I'm not even going to swat that fly...")

"Next big thing" in global infamy (may be the same person as the last question!)

Musharraf of Pakistan will reveal himself to be less than a friend to his Western "allies", who he has only been using to cling to power.

Your personal prediction for 2008 that doesn't fit into any of the above categories

I will lose 50 pounds. Either because I begin to get properly fit again, or because I lose my wallet with £50 in it.