I just wanted to have a place where people can make their predictions before we get into the General Election. So post them here!


As for mine:

I will predict that if John McCain is chosen as the Republican Candidate the media will suddenly start doing negative stories on him. Which they should be doing right now, but don't want to harm his chances of beating Romney right now.

The New York times will say they can no longer endorse him and will choose who ever the Democratic candidate will be.

By the way.. I will still be voting for Barak Obama as I believe he is the ONLY candidate who really cares about ordinary citizens.

I think that if McCain wins the nomination, as predicted, the one and only issue is going to be Iraq. He's going to sink or swim on his hard stance on the war. If Obama gets the Democratic nomination, he will be able to point to that vote against the war back in 2002, and the fight is on. If it's Hillary, who knows - she probably won't risk differing with McCain on the war, and will bank on just not being a Republican. If Romney somehow pulls out the nomination, I don't think he'll come close against either Clinton or Obama. What's he stand for again?

After Iraq, what do you have to talk about? The economy is going so badly that nobody will be able to talk publicly about any belt-tightening or tax-raising that needs to be done. And that lack of money might put the whole health care debate on the back burner. No, the whole thing will boil down to Iraq. McCain has nothing else, and he will force the issue, trying to scare everyone against pulling out anytime soon, just the way Bush did in 2004. And there are a lot of suckers out there who will listen, just like in 2004. You will be sure to hear about every car bomb that goes off in Iraq between now and November. The crazies in Iraq will have more influence on our election than our own economy.

I think John McCain is going to win the GOP nomination, perhaps as early as next Tuesday. Clinton and Obama are going to continue slugging it out for awhile, but I still think at the end of the day the Clinton national machine will be too much for Obama to overcome in his first national campaign although my confidence in that prediction is getting shaky. I do think Obama will be the Democrat nominee in 2012 and will be a formidable opponent for President McCain to defeat should McCain decide to run for re-election. And, I'm not sure that's a given.....

So, I think at the end of the day (Tuesday to be exact) in November, John McCain is going to be elected President of the United States. The reason I think this is going to happen is because it is actually easier for McCain to win a general election than a party election. His base is in the center with moderates and independents. He won't run a single issue campaign as John suggests, but rather will draw on the support of rock solid fiscal conservatives like Jack Kemp, Phil Gramm, and Warren Rudman to carry his economic message to the voters. By doing that, he will be able to marginalize either Clinton or Obama to the left, they are both big-government, big-spending, big-tax liberals. It would be extremely difficult for either to move to the middle and capture that ground from McCain. That's his base right now. All that he has to do to gain right wing conservative support is to run against a left wing liberal or progressive or whatever the hell they are calling themselves these days. Current polls notwithstanding, I think McCain will win by a clear margin and that's not such a bad thing. He wasn't my first choice, but he is now.

Note to the Proprietor of the GOP Restaurant: Need to come up with a McCain meal. (Make sure the drink served with it has some bitters in it for Rush, Annie and Sean to swallow).......


Aquilla

John McCain's mama is right: Republicans will have to hold their nose and pull the lever for McCain. He may throw the conservative base of the GOP a bone by picking a vice-president that appeals to them (Mike Huckabee? Fred Thompson? A Republican governor?).

Michael Bloomburg may run as an independent if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. He'll fight McCain for the independent vote and may leech away enough Democrats to foil her candidacy. Ron Paul may run as an independent, but for all the money he's supposedly raised I don't see where he's spent any of it to have any appreciable impact. Ralph Nader will get in the race but only to play the role of spoiler, a position Bloomburg will have locked up.

I don't entirely disagree with Aquilla's assessment that the superior organization (and willingness to fight dirty) by The Clinton Machine may finally foil Barack Obama. However, the fact that Obama has the to stay in the race and does not lack in considerable appeal to a cross-section of young new voters, moderate Republicans, independents and progressives (a major weakness for Clinton) may make it difficult for him to be excluded from a spot on the Clinton ticket.

The question for Democrats could be does Clinton need Obama more than Obama needs Clinton? Do not discount the ability of Hillary Clinton to win against McCain, no matter who else is on the ticket. No public figure has endorsed President Bush's war in Iraq as much as McCain and his recent throwaway line about being there for "100 years" will be heard over and over again between now and November. The American people have turned their back on the war and want an dignified exit from it, not an open-ended commitment lasting for decades to come.

McCain will try to frame the election between someone with a vast amount of experience who can protect the homeland and win the war. Clinton or Obama will retort that it's time for new blood and fresh ideas and to bring the troops home and let the Iraqis settle their own affairs.

More to the point there's going to be a "first" one way or another. Either Americans will choose the oldest man ever to be elected President, the first woman or the first Black man. Will ageism, sexism or racism factor into who wins and who loses?

Any way it works out will be an improvement over these dreary and dreadful past eight years.

How about "Rats, Rice, and Reagan"?

I'll bet he thought about Reagan on a daily basis. Puh-leeze.

I'm going to have to add "Lots of pandering to Reaganites" to my prediction.

My prediction is that John McCain is the next president of the United States

The reason I feel this, is because I think Clinton nabs the democratic nomination and believe, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that she is entirely unelectable when matched against McCain in the general, for her inability to distance on Iraq (the issue in which you can really hammer McCain over), her entrenched 45% hatred as this nation is concerned ,and McCain being the moderate posterboy. Her ceiling is terribly low and she is perhaps the most despised figure on the left, Ted Kennedy withstanding.

States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin fall out of contention when Hillary is matched against McCain. These are states that Kerry could barely hang onto (not even all of them) when matched against a terribly unpopular Bush, who was very much a conseravtive (it was only recent, in an effort of distancing, that the Republicans began to denounce his conservative, not so in 04). These are states with a blend of populism and rural conservatism. These states are states that the Democrats must have, and states that McCain with slaughter her in, as far as the indy vote is concerned. She has absolutely no cross-over potential. When knuckle time gets going and people face the very prospect of possibly 3 decades of a two-family political system? When every "Vince Foster", ""Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy" etc,etc is trotted out again, and covered by the media like it's all new? She's done. Not only is she done and destined for an electoral college massacre, she is going to cost Democrats several house and senate opportunities, because disenfranchised Republicans, upset with the state of the Republican party and in having a moderate as their nominee, will come out in droves to vote against her. She is one of the very reasons why certain people call themself republican in the first place. Denying Hillary the White House is unification in an instant for Republicans, and only McCain benefits.

Hillary is a cancer as a Democratic nominee, she spreads to all facets of the election process and eats away all opportunity. She brings nothing to the table, as McCain's immigration stances neutralizes the Hispanic angle. She does not expand democratic bases anywhere. She is polarizing beyond imagination. Polls suggest California is in serious play if she runs against McCain. She adds nothing to a ticket. Her stance on Iraq is to the right of Kerry's. She still is of the belief that going into Iraq was a legit and ideologically sound move, and that it should only be abandonded now, because Bush just so happened to muff it. She's basically cut and run McCain. Her suggestion that a vote for war authorization was a diplomatic attempt at putting inspectors back in, or that it was cast with the belief that Bush would consult the UN was a lie, because she voted against the Levin Amendment, the same Levin that voted against the war and who implemented failsafes into his amendment. The Levin Amendment existed to prevent President Bush from initiating conflict absent of further evidence and she voted against it. As US citizen's tests teach to prospective new Americans...Congress has the ability to wage war. The declaration for war rests solely on the shoulders of congress. She was part of the power mechanism and she blew it, and refuses to admit she made a major mistake, which John Edwards has. Without Iraq and a clear difference on Iraq? There is no debate. Her backtracking, nuanced and jarbled mess will fall into a pool of muddleness as it can't be condensed in a soundbite or reasonably explained. She looks like John McCain on Iraq. A person who deemed it worthy of US forces and investment, but just happens to think that Bush blew it....so it's no good. That is a losing position.

Obama doesn't have 15 years of entrenched hatred or true ambiguity on Iraq. His stance can be summed up in a nice and neat little soundbite. I opposed the war from the beginning, it is not worthy of US interests and it's time to leave. That platform alone puts a dent in the indy vote. His cross-over appeal is evident. He is already polling better nationally when put in a general. He does not have 45% of the people in the US unchangeably against him from day one. Maybe he blows it in the general, as McCain has so much moderate standing, but he (unlike Hillary) has a chance to win the nomination....and red state names (Sebelius, Kaine,Nelson etc) see the obviousness of this. Not to mention the fact that I think a huge chunk of his supporters are Obama or nobody and will not cross-over for Hillary. Plus, what she and Bill have done to insult black voters (comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson after SC) is going to knock off some african american enthusiasm...and maybe some blacks stay home.

Her ceiling is nearly touching the floor. Attack ads will reign supreme. Republicans salivate at the opportunity to face her and fire up their entire party, pumping millions into open and contested seats, which right now (on paper) stack well for democrats.

The reality? Like the democrats did in Connecticut, by trotting up Ned Lamont, (with no prayer of winning the general) they will send in this idea that owes little to common sense or scope. The dynastic undertones of her near monarchal bid are actually appealing to her supporters, as if Bill gets another term. They fail to see how that resonates with the people who vote in general election and the baggage the Clinton name carries.

So, I take McCain 53-47% in the popular vote, and an electoral landslide for dominating the above mentioned states.

Huckabee is killing Romney (though Romney is not officially dead), so McCain is the logical GOP choice.

Romney could have a shot, if he somehow pulls out California (which some polls have close) and Huckabee drops out of the race, but I think Romney loses the general, even against Hillary. In his flip-flopping/reinventing for convenience sort of way, he has alienated moderates and certainly democrats. I think Obama beats him clean, and Hillary would edge him out in a general, but I don't see him seeing the general.

It's McCain versus Hillary if I had to pick...and Hillary can't win that.

Well, well.. What do you know the New York times came out today with a burner against McCain. The funny thing is they were sitting on this story while they were endorsing him.

My support will be for Obama in this election, but I am still going to point out how the media wanted John McCain to be the republican nominee, and now that he is they will trash him thoroughly.

Although they really don't need to do any of this... I would just make a single commercial featuring John McCain saying we could be in Iraq for 100 years.. Game. Set. Match

My predictions are based on pure, unadulterated speculation; not as an expert, but as mere spectator with little vested personal interested.

Hillary Clinton is unelectable, period.

If McCain is smart enough to pick a southern Governor (i.e. Huckabee) as V.P. he can win, UNLESS the Democrats somehow get Hillary and Obama on a ticket together (and he might still win, even if they do, given that the general election is going to be based on reality rather than intra-party fantasy).

I liked what Ron Paul had to say, but he was too practical and sensible and un-dramatic for most people, I guess. (maybe if he had been a woman)

I also predict that Obama, should he take the presidency, will eventually curse the day he ever got involved in politics.

I also predict that no one running for office is going to make a difference in my life. So I will look to myself for leadership and future prosperity.

Hmmm. My predictions are almost always wrong, but here goes. You can all laugh at me later.

Obama wins a very close election over McCain.