QUOTE(droop224 @ Apr 22 2008, 01:07 AM)

WertzQUOTE
What I sound like is a Reagan Democrat - we've got a lot of them around these parts. I know what Obama's constituencies are - and they don't include some of the traditional Democratic constituencies, like the working class. That is a problem. A big problem. A lose-the-election type problem. And it's the problem Obama was trying to address in San Francisco.
Tell me, just cause I really would like your opinion, what are the key policies, issues, interests, or politics that Clinton espouses, that Obama doesn't, that McCain does, which would cause Barack to lose the "reagon democrats", that Clinton would win.
Well, obviously, the differences between Obama and Clinton are very different than the differences between Obama and McCain. So let's look at Clinton first. In terms of policies, there are a couple of factors that loom large.
The military and national security is one main area. What many see as a liability - Clinton's initial support for the use of force in Iraq - could work to her advantage among blue collar workers in Pennsylvania. She claims she regrets the vote in hindsight, but doesn't disown it because she felt at the time that she was acting in the best interest of national security. That plays
well here. A lot of people in these parts
also initially supported a military incursion in Iraq and have since had serious second thoughts. Plus she has a record of service on the Senate Committee on Armed Services, lobbying for necessary resources for our troops, advocating veteran's rights, and passing legislation, for example, to track the health status of our returning troops to prevent conditions like Gulf War Syndrome from being misdiagnosed (a cause she championed as First Lady as well).
That plays well here, too.
Her response to the September 11 attack as a senator was more impressive and more useful than
anything George W. Bush did as president. She fought to provide compensation to the families of the victims, grants for hard-hit small businesses, and health care for first responders at the WTC. People here
respect that, just as they
appreciate her visits to Afghanistan and Iraq and the Walter Reed Military Hospital, however ceremonial. Apart from making a speech against the war that many Pennsylvania Democrats would have supported at the time (not that any of them would have heard it - or even heard
of it - prior to the primary campaign), Obama can offer nothing comparable but an absentee year or two on a few related committees.
And Sen. Obama is
right that many "lunch-pail types" are "values voters" - though not out of fiscal frustration. The fact that Clinton is a Methodist is a plus - and that, for those with a long enough memory (and an interest in such things), she has frankly discussed her faith and liberal religious political philosophy several times in the past, especially following her father's death in 1993, but continuing through her regular attendance of the Senate Prayer Breakfast. To many Democrats, this might be a mild turn-off, but
here, again, it plays pretty well. Obama's church, on the other hand, is quite alien, if not a little threatening, to people accustomed to the more staid services of the industrial wasteland - especially the many Catholics among the Reagan Democrats, who are suspect of
Episcopalians. Even relatively square praise bands are still considered somewhat
outré in the heartland - and the TUCC, by comparison, is like a folk mass on mescaline (and that's
without examining the content of Rev. Wright's sermons).
While both Clinton and Obama are "social liberals", Clinton
does have a record of endorsing a number of "family values", which are attractive to Reagan Democrats - like her support of children's issues ranging from her advocacy of the Children's Health Insurance Program and the Foster Care Independence Act as First Lady to her introduction of the Family Entertainment Protection and Best Pharmaceuticals for Children Acts as senator. Her focus on health care in general is also attractive, partially because it's not just about
subsidizing health care, but introducing things like more advanced info-tech systems to decrease administrative costs, lower premiums, and reduce medical errors. Obama may support similar positions, but he doesn't have the record in national politics to demonstrate much of
anything. Opinion has shifted toward something
like "Hillarycare" among many working class Democrats - and it's already got her
name on it.
Even her advocacy of women's rights is something of a plus, especially as she's focused on women's rights as human rights, emphasizing a lot of third world concerns. She's not so much one of those feminists who thinks women should be working in mines or on oil rigs, she's the brand of feminist that doesn't like women wearing burkas or being stoned to death for adultery. She's not as pushy about gender-based affirmative action as she is about female circumcision (and, while we may not know exactly what that is, it sounds pretty grim and
we don't want it here).
One of the factors that created Reagan Democrats in the first place was the perception that the Democratic Party had neglected the middle class for the interests of political pressure groups - notably minorities and those below the poverty line. Bill Clinton was the first Democrat to reclaim some of the blue collar vote by appealing directly to working families. The fact that we experienced some gains due to the economic prosperity that coincided with the Clinton administration helped cement the notion - and Hillary Clinton is, to an extent, seen as a champion of middle class voters "by association" - though she has certainly supported many initiatives on behalf of lower income families as a senator and has sound proposals relating to, for example, fiscal stimulus packages aimed at those facing foreclosure.
People here are also fed up with government corruption and, while they don't favor too much regulation, can get behind many of Clinton's recommendations like strengthening whistle-blower protections, investigating and eliminating corporate welfare, making all government contracts public, and ending the abuse of no-bid contracts. In this area, Obama has some similar proposals, but he's not getting the message out.
In fact, that is one of the key differences between the candidates at this stage. On almost every issue, there are
some planks in Clinton's platform that working class Democrats can get on board with - from paying down the national debt and targeting tax cuts to the families who need them most to supporting "three strikes" legislation and the death penalty. Obama may
also have a number of positions with which blue collar workers could sympathize, but who's to know?
To large extent, it's more the campaigns than the actual policy differences between the candidates that appeal to Reagan Democrats in Pennsylvania. When it comes to things like beleaguered homeowners, Clinton has the specifics - and her stump speeches are larded with them: a 90-day moratorium on foreclosures, a five-year freeze on mortgage interest rates, an energy assistance plan for families with skyrocketing heating bills, and so on - and on. She's almost
boring with the details. But that's the kind of thing people
here want to hear.
Obama's sales pitch is very different. And the criticism that has been dogging the candidate is somewhat valid: his campaign
has focused on soaring, uplifting rhetoric. It's not that he doesn't
have the sort of detailed proposals that Clinton talks about, but he has made the conscious decision to push the "transformative" nature of his campaign rather than to dwell on how he will
effect the "change you can believe in" and what, exactly, that change
is. Clinton may not be as inspiring, to say the least, but she
has been attempting to reassure an anxious electorate that her policies
can improve the lot of working families - and providing the hardcore wonkery to back it up.
We tend to go for pragmatism here; flowery words and upbeat slogans are for selling soap, not public policy.
The differences between Obama and McCain are more marked - and probably don't require going into in much detail. As a moderate, maverick Republican (and that
is still his reputation here), McCain
himself is practically a Reagan Democrat. Over the last few election cycles, the GOP has got a lot of mileage out of hypocrisy: convincing enough of the American electorate that their candidates were courageous, moral warriors and that their opponents were effete, intellectual snobs, out of touch with the common man - while, in fact, the direct
opposite was often the case. The irony of an Obama campaign would be that the Republican Noise Machine could continue with the same old smears - but that, this time, they'd be
true.
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QUOTE(Lesly @ Apr 22 2008, 02:28 AM)

It's okay to admit nothing Obama does/'nt say at this point won't sound offensive, Wertz.
If I didn't find his remarks in San Francisco offensive, I wouldn't be posting here. Like I said, I'm not
straining to find things in Obama's speeches.
QUOTE(Lesly @ Apr 22 2008, 02:28 AM)

Still insisting his comment was an endorsement that white people ain't gonna vote for him?
I'm not sure what that means, but I'm still insisting that his answer sounded
to me like someone trying to explain why it would be a "challenge" to get past "their" cynicism and skepticism - especially for "a black man named Barack Obama" facing people who "cling" to their "antipathy toward people who aren't like them". You tell me.

QUOTE(Lesly @ Apr 22 2008, 02:28 AM)

QUOTE(Wertz @ Apr 22 2008, 12:47 AM)

My "fatalistic predictions" are based on a uniquely unsalable combination of factors. As I've said repeatedly, I could well be wrong (I was certainly wrong about Clinton not running in 2008) - and, should Obama be the candidate, I hope I am.
I could copy/paste the paragraph above this statement, replace he with she, black with female and it would be just as true.
Except it wouldn't. Clinton isn't being portrayed as more liberal than Obama, Obama is being portrayed as more liberal than Clinton, for example. And, when it comes to casting votes in the general, I think the race barrier will be a greater hurdle than the gender barrier. As I've stated elsewhere, there's no equivalent to "The Bradley Effect" when it comes to female candidates - even if it may be as difficult for them to make it onto a ballot. And your swapping of adjectives and pronouns makes no sense at all when it comes to many of the "distractions" or "associations". Though both have more than a few of each, they are simply not reciprocal (and you're right that most of the Obama baggage isn't as well-known - yet). And if we're talking about (lack of) experience, I'm sorry - there's no comparison. The (lack of) judgment, I'll admit, is more subjective.
QUOTE(Lesly @ Apr 22 2008, 02:28 AM)

Bush has done a heck of a job wasting this country's resources with executive experience.
I'm not quite sure why this phrase was stuck in, but if you're comparing Bush's experience with Sen. Clinton's, we're back to apples and oranges. Neither Clinton
nor Obama have much
executive experience, outside the business sphere. I've always maintained that the key "experience" difference between Obama and Clinton is that he lacks experience of
national politics - just as George W. Bush did. If one looks at
national experience and
executive experience, few presidents have had both. Most, though, have had one or the other. If one accepts that high ranking military experience counts as either or both, Obama is the only contender
I can recall with
neither.