In the interest of moving forward, rather than remaining bogged down in how we got here, I'd like to ask how you think post-war Iraq needs to be handled.

What needs to be done to improve the chances that this will turn out to be the first step towards a sustainable peace in this area of the world?

The critical factor in a post-war Iraq is going to be resolving the Shi'ite-Sunni-Kurdish problem.

This article article sheds a bit of light on the issues to be faced.

Yes, the Iraqi people have many reasons not to embrace us as liberators.
The Kurds in the north and the Shia of the south took up our call to rise up against the Baathist regime at the end of the Gulf War and we did a Bay of Pigs on them. We do seem to want to keep the Sunni Arabs in power.

I think, as odd as it sounds, that our most likely easy avenue to a return to stability to the region is to get the Arab league involved in the political reconstruction. Putting in leaders from the exile community might go as poorly as the Ngo Dinh Diem experiment did in South Vietnam.

The Middle East region has been relatively stable compared to many other areas of the globe. The Israeli problem is the biggest problem and it led to the destabilization of Lebanon. However we look like we are going to try to bring democracy to the region even though our strongest allies run under restrictive monarchies.

I think that any attempt to manage the consistency of the postwar government will result sooner or later in that government's opposite being put in power. Let the Arab league in and make them have a stake in creating stability in Iraq.

One problem the US will face is its critics, who will stand against whatever we try to do. If we stay too long, we are setting up a colony, if we leave early then we are abandoning our responsibility. Prop up a (non-democratic) leader, then we are "installing" a pro-US government. Install a democracy (with all the difficulties that will follow) and chaos may ensue. We really are in a tough position.

The biggest challenge when it comes to "nation building" is the balancing of internal opposition groups. All things considered, harsh central governments (i.e. dictators) do keep these internal forces at bay. When the dictator is removed, so are the barriers keeping these forces from each other.

I read somewhere that we shouldn't implement a democracy in Iraq since the majority of Iraqis are Shia, they would vote in an Iranian style religious government. I am not sure what the actual political situation is, but it is likely volatile. Revenge for past actions is always a possiblity. Thus the need for peace keeping troops.

Do I think the UN has a role? As a matter of fact, I do. The UN's only real effectiveness comes from its humanitarian programs. This would be a humanitarian effort, and would diffuse opinions that the US wants to set up a hegemony, a colonial government, New Crawford, or whatever some of these people think.

Democracy is not an easy thing to implement, especially in a country with such diverse ethnic interests--Kurds, Shia, Sunni and others. The newly born US was successful largely because it was very homogenous. Later, it embraced immigrants in large quantities, but initially, it had no large groups striving against one another.

Of course, another key reason that the US blossomed was that it WON its independence, it was not given its independence. Earning something gives it value, being handed something deprives that thing of value. Iraqis will need to learn the value of freedom, and it may be difficult.

I agree that how the US handles the post-war Iraq will say alot to the rest of the world. The road will not be smooth, and, of course, we will be blamed for all the bumps along the way. However, we must persevere (as always) and see it through to the logical end --a stable government.

There are so many things that will need to be done after the war, and if we actually come through with our end of the bargain, we (and hopefully the UN) should have forces and other personnel in Iraq for decades. We are going to have to:

repair a devastated economy
Assist the Iraqis in developing the undeveloped oil fields of Iraq
Focus on agricultural development, which has been largely damaged by Saddam's regime and the Oil for food program.
Formulate a new government and set of laws
Facilitate the repair and upgrade of infrastructure,
Recruit skilled volunteers such as teachers and tradesmen to help educate a population from which most skilled workers have fled and more than likely will not wish to return
Recruit medical personnel and provide humanitarian aid to the people
Crack down on corruption and criminality…smugglers
Deal with a population of young people who have never known any other system
Deal with deeply rooted ethnic & religious tensions…try to avoid civil war
Attempt to shift the Iraqi view of the American people into a more positive light

That's my short list, and it doesn't address any of the issues in detail, but we will face major obstacles with every single one of those goals, I'm sure, and we will be criticized through the entire process, and if we have the staying power that is necessary to repair Iraq, we will probably be labelled as colonialists.

Also, I don't think that the Iraqi people are going to be quick in embracing the US. Building trust is going to have to be one of our initial concerns along with finding some sort of solution to the ethnic conflict in Iraq.

Edited for spelling.

Cyan wrote

I wonder how long we should stay in Iraq if we do not build that trust. If we get ourselves in a nation-building situation without public support I think we are in a losing game. Sure the Iraqis should be allowed time to trust that they will not be revisited by the Ba'ath party before they embrace a new concept of government, but don't you think that we need to plan for being rejected by the Iraqi people. If it doesn't take, turn it over to another party and keep a clear voice in subsequent developments of the next Iraqi government. We need to build ourselves an exit strategy so we don't get bogged down.

How long is too long? How long is not long enough?

More importantly : how much will it cost?

I like President Bush's response this morning to a question about how long the war will take : "However long it takes to win."

Washington Post article

We will be criticized come what may. We might as well do the job right.

Hmmm...Well, to be honest, I think that this should have all been figured out before invading Iraq. Ideally, the UN should be involved so that the reconstruction of Iraq is an effort of the world community and not just the United States. That would probably be more easily accepted by the people of Iraq and the remainder of the world community. Hopefully things will go well enough that we won't be there for ages and ages, but there is always that worst case scenario to consider, and we have to have the staying power to see this thing through to the end since we pushed so hard to start it. We aren't exactly known for our endurance in cleaning up messes.

As far as the Iraqi people go, we really need to listen to what they have to say. There will be some problems to begin with. That's to be expected, but yes, after a given period of time, if they don't want us there, we should leave. The idea is to help them to help themselves, though. I don't think we should leave them until we've provided them with enough tools to fix it on their own.

I won't add anything to this thread, but will just second your comment I quoted above

--cheers

I think this is a typically Bushian quotation. It is cowboy rhetoric. Isn't this the type of answer that would have been considered impossible to give before the Gulf War when everyone worried about getting involved in another Vietnam.

Have we even defined what winning is in this situation? We have some serious problems put before us and we need to engage in some pretty adept foreign policy to keep ourselves from getting stuck in the mud in the Middle East.

from Cyan
Amen sister.

This is the exact attitude we should have. We are in this to win, not to fight until pressure gets too high, or we have X number of casualties or whatever other negative situation might occur.



Regime change and the disarmament of Iraq...

I am sure you knew this...

I hope that when everything is done now, that the US and Britain is putting in a new Government.