Is the JW fallout continuing?Apparently, yes. This is a bit sad as I think the "association" with Rev. Wright should be the
least of anyone's concerns about Barack Obama.
The recent
television ad in North Carolina (which
entspeak mentioned in the
Obama's recent "slip" thread, for some reason) is the clearest instance of "JW fallout" of late. The interesting thing about
that campaign, though, is that it is an ad condemning two Democratic
gubernatorial candidates, Bev Perdue and Richard Moore, for
endorsing Sen. Obama: "They should know better."
The GOP strategy, at least in North Carolina, is
already that Barack Obama is "too extreme" (as the ad
underlines) -
so radioactive that anyone who has even endorsed his
candidacy is suspect. In short, the GOP is using Obama
himself as a weapon against other Democrats. To me, of course, Sen. Obama is about as "extreme" as Gerald Ford - but I'm not the party that thinks these ads could
work. But were the "toxic Obama" spin to stick, especially in swing states, that
could make a difference.
Should the Democratic Party's
greater concern be
Obama fallout? Could the candidate who's "too extreme for North Carolina" be costing the
party seats "by association"? I've long suggested that an Obama presidency would throw Congress to the GOP in 2012. It wasn't until I saw the NCGOP ad, though, that it occurred to me that it could happen
this year.
Has/is it affecting Obama's "numbers" negatively, perhaps more than any other issue?Surprisingly, perhaps, I don't think it has really - not in the Democratic primaries. I've spoken to a number of employees and family members here (and a few locals who were at the polling station on the day of the primary) who don't follow politics that closely and few seemed to know much about
any of the controversies (about any of the candidates) that have so consumed cable news, the blogosphere, and
America's Debate - though the "bitterness" meme has trickled down a bit, mostly because it seemed to be
about voters here. If they are otherwise aware of primary controversies, they're mostly old news - you know, Edwards got a pricey haircut, Giuliani had a lot of wives, Obama is a Muslim, and that sort of stuff. Of those who had even
heard of Rev. Wright, though, both were fairly philosophical: "Well, it was his preacher saying stuff, not him." (I also got an "Isn't he the guy that hates Catholics or something?"

) Overall, Democrats in central PA seem to be supporting Clinton because they know her and are wary of Obama because they don't - or vice versa.
It would seem that the "message" about Wright hasn't really been getting out - yet. So, to the extent that Wright
could have a negative impact on Obama's numbers, I don't think we've
begun to see it. And, unless local Republican Party officials - like dear little Linda Daves in North Carolina

- and GOP-biased 527s make an even
bigger issue of it through
more smear campaigns, we may not. <--- ridiculous optimism
:::::::::::::::::::::::::
QUOTE(BoF @ Apr 26 2008, 07:05 AM)

Probably, but there's something about this that isn't logical. Wright makes a speech defending himself and somehow it's supposed to reflect negatively on Obama.
I think the negative reflection isn't due to Wright
himself this time, but what he said
about Sen. Obama. The section of
the interview that
I've seen getting most of the play in the blogosphere is this:
QUOTE
REV. WRIGHT: I don't talk to him about politics. And so here at a political event, he goes out as a politician and says what he has to say as a politician. I continue to be a pastor who speaks to the people of God about the things of God.
BILL MOYERS: Here is a man who came to see you 20 years ago wanting to know about the neighborhood. Barack Obama was a skeptic when it came to religion. He sought you out because he knew you knew about the community. You led him to the faith. You performed his wedding ceremony. You baptized his two children. You were, for 20 years, his spiritual counselor. He has said that. And, yet, he, in that speech at Philadelphia, had to say some hard things about you. How, how did it go down with you when you heard Barack Obama say those things?
REV. WRIGHT: It went down very simply. He's a politician, I'm a pastor. We speak to two different audiences. And he says what he has to say as a politician. I say what I have to say as a pastor. Those are two different worlds. I do what I do. He does what politicians do. So that what happened in Philadelphia where he had to respond to the sound bites, he responded as a politician.
For a man who has been passing himself off as a "different" type of candidate, espousing "different" politics, Wright's characterization of Obama as a pretty typical "politician" who is "saying what he has to say as a politician" and "doing what he has to do as a politician" could be somewhat damaging.
For those of us who have known all along that Obama is a politician,
wholly a politician, and nothing
but a politician, so help us God, Wright's impressions will have little impact. And, for those who think Obama is the Second Coming and are naive enough to
believe his rhetoric,
no one is going to make the scales fall from their eyes, no matter
how intimately they may know the candidate.
But for those who may be in the middle and who think Obama
might be somehow "different", hearing from a long-time friend and mentor that, no, he's just another politician saying and doing what is politically expedient just like every other politician, this might make some small difference.
I don't quite buy the spin that Wright was saying, in effect, that Obama
agrees with all those controversial statements, but because he's a politician he has to distance himself from them, but it's clear that Wright feels pastors and politicians need to have different conversations with their congregations than with their constituents.
Rev. Wright seeming to suggest that Obama is a nothing more than a typical "politician" may not reflect
that negatively on Sen. Obama,
BoF, but there's nothing
illogical about the suggestion.