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America's Debate > In the News > Election 2008
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vsrenard
Recently there has been a lot of talk about the Democratic party, particularly if the nomination is decided not by voters but super/unpledged delegates. Things have gotten even more vitriolic with Clinton supporters saying they'll stay home or vote for McCain if Obama wins the nomination, and vice-versa. But what if each candidate's supporters stayed with their candidate of choice, either voting her/him in on the Democratic ticket or as a write-in candidate. No write-in candiates have won the presidency, so far. But with such polarized support for both Democratic candidates, maybe a write-in campaign would be the start of a new party.

1. Do you think a write-in campaign would be feasible, both from the voter's and candidate's perpectives?

2. Given the different demographics each candidate appeals to, does one candidate, a priori, have an advantage in getting more voters to write her/him in?

3. If Clinton or Obama decided to embark on a write-in campaign after losing the Democratic nomination, how will this affect the party, and presidential politics in general?
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jaellon
1. Do you think a write-in campaign would be feasible, both from the voter's and candidate's perpectives?

No

Assuming the non-selected candidate was able to convince every single supporter to write them in, at best, they would have maybe a little over 50%...of those who would vote for the Democratic Party. So even if 60% of voters prefer that McCain loses, to Obama or Clinton, doesn't matter which, McCain still has 40% of the vote compared to ~30% for the other two. McCain wins.

If they couldn't get that level of support, and I don't think they would, at best the number of votes for them would be negligible, and at worst, they would spoil the election in favor of McCain.

That's one of the problems with our current Plurality voting system. Voters have to vote strategically, rather than their conscience, and candidates have to bow out (like Romney did) or face giving the election to their worst rival(s).

2. Given the different demographics each candidate appeals to, does one candidate, a priori, have an advantage in getting more voters to write her/him in?

Hard to say. I don't know of any studies that have been done that show that one group or class would be more open to writing in a candidate than another. Race and Gender would likely be the leading factors, and I really can't see those factors playing much of a role in a person's decision to write-in their favorite candidate.

3. If Clinton or Obama decided to embark on a write-in campaign after losing the Democratic nomination, how will this affect the party, and presidential politics in general?

The likeliest response would be a war of finger-pointing and under-the-bus-throwing. There would be heated accusations of attempting to spoil the election, or at least being reckless about that risk. There would be endless speculation about whether the write-in could succeed.

One good thing about it, though, is that it might spark a discussion about the fallibility of our current voting methodology, and improvements that could be made to it that would be fair, understandable, and feasible. I think most everyone would agree that given the current system, nobody but a Democrat or Republican has any chance whatsoever of winning, and it's not (necessarily) because the 3rd-party candidates lack appeal or qualifications.

Then again, any such change would spell doom for the two major parties, so I'm not holding my breath.
Bernaserra
1. Do you think a write-in campaign would be feasible, both from the voter's and candidate's perpectives?
Not if we actually want to see a democrat in office.

2. Given the different demographics each candidate appeals to, does one candidate, a priori, have an advantage in getting more voters to write her/him in?
Tough to decide Obama seems to have brought in alot of new voters and that could benefit him along with the demographic he already has.

3. If Clinton or Obama decided to embark on a write-in campaign after losing the Democratic nomination, how will this affect the party, and presidential politics in general?
This could only harm the party as well as split a chunk of the vote and lose either of them the election. With the general split in numbers between Clinton and Obama with the american people I can't see either of them winning this way without alot of support.
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