This Saturday the three year olds will run in the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness. It will be the 133rd running. Derby winner Big Brown is the favorite at 1-2 odds, and has drawn Post 7. The field is below with this morning's odds:

Post Horse Jockey Trainer ML Odds
1 Macho Again Julien Leparoux Dallas Stewart 20-1
2 Tres Borrachos Tyler Baze Beau Greely 30-1
3 Icabad Crane Jeremy Rose Graham Motion 30-1
4 Yankee Bravo Alex Solis Patrick Gallagher 15-1
5 Behindathebar David Flores Todd Pletcher 10-1
6 Racecar Rhapsody Robby Albarado Ken McPeek 30-1
7 Big Brown Kent Desormeaux Rick Dutrow 1-2
8 Kentucky Bear Jamie Theriot Reade Baker 15-1
9 Stevil John Velazquez Nick Zito 30-1
10 Riley Tucker Edgar Prado Bill Mott 30-1
11 Giant Moon Ramon Dominguez Richard Schosberg 30-1
12 Gayego Mike Smith Paulo Lobo 8-1
13 Hey Byrn Charles Lopez Eddie Plesa 20-1

Questions:

1) Who will win the Preakness and why?

2) Can Big Brown win the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978 and why?

1) Who will win the Preakness and why?

Big Brown is the favorite for a reason. He’s undefeated and did something in the KY Derby that hasn’t been done in over 80+ years: won from the 20 hole. He ran 4 wide in the first turn, three wide in the second turn (which means he probably ran over a mile and three eights, probably closer to a mile and a half) and then bolted down the long stretch at Churchill like he was shot out of a cannon.

He’s got excellent tactical speed, can run off the pace and is a great closer which is key in anything over a mile. And his competition in the Preakness is fairly weak.

If he’s going to get beat (or if you’re looking for a value/exotic bet), I’d look for:
Yankee Bravo – rallied well in the Louisiana Derby and held up well in the Santa Anita
Gayego – liked his run in the Arkansas Derby, didn’t show well in the KY Derby (got banged around in the 20 horse field) but another good closer
Kentucky Bear – faired well in the Bluegrass Stakes (3rd) and two bullet work outs since, might just be coming into his form

I like the Big Brown – Kentucky Bear exact.

2) Can Big Brown win the first Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978 and why?

He’s got as good a chance as any horse in recent memory. Will need to see who’s going to run in the Belmont. He’s at a disadvantage (like any KY Derby winner who attemptws the Triple Crown) since most of the horses running tomorrow didn’t run in the Derby and by the time the Belmont comes around he’ll face the same thing: competition that’s well rested.

Side note: Just read to today that Big Brown’s racing career will end this year and he’ll be retired to stud. He’ll be sold to a farm in KY “to be named later”.