QUOTE(DCjumper @ Jun 5 2008, 09:39 PM)

A free and stable Iraq would spell trouble for all of its neigboring regimes (namely Iran, Syria, and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia). In that regard, Iraq is not only important but essential. Saddam and the Ba'ath were an artificial mask over both sides of Islam's--Sunni and Shia--radicalism and with the removal of that mask and a lack of a civil society to replace the dictatorial Pan-Arab nationalism that had dominated Iraqi life for two generations, radicalism came into the fold almost at the outset of the Iraq War. What we have come to realize in hindsight is the greater problem will most likely come from Iranian backed Shia groups, like the Badr brigades or Sadr militias, not the Wahhabist al-Qaeda (Though it is important to remember al-Qaeda still remains active in the north, it is being actively rejected by the indigenous Sunni tribes "Awakening Councils" and the Sons of Iraq).
So this is really the central question. Unlike a lot of pundits on my side of the aisle, I don't think the war in Iraq was ever really about oil, not exactly. I see oil as the lubricant that let this bad idea pass the can-we-pay-for-it test. However many stated objectives we've been bombarded with, I think the overarching aim was always "Free and Stable."
So I respect that as a strategic aim.
But here's where I reject the notion that this is part of a broader strategy to make us safer. First off, quite frankly, Saddam's pan-Arab nationalism was always half-code for pan-Sunni nationalism, and as such, Saddam was a bigger clamp on Iranian power than Free and Stable ever will be. If our aim was to check the influence of a bombastic Iran--and for at least two decades that was exactly our goal-- then we'd be propping up Saddam--which is exactly what we did.
In other words, if you lump "Iran" alongside Al Qaeada as part of the war on terror--which I think is a tremendous mistake--then a Free and Stable Iraq makes no sense. If America's aim in Iran is regime change, then we goofed up six years ago.
If, on the other hand, we are thinking that a Free and Stable will turn Arab heads toward the light of democracy--which is exactly what I think the goal was from the outset-- then we've made a few too many thousand assumptions. First off, how long until the exiled extremists on the hills of Pakistan See the Light? Decades?
Here comes my ambling bull session thought process. Bare with me. Sometimes I wonder if political reform doesn't come out of material and cultural reform, rather than the opposite. Example 1: The purchasing power of the third estate actually went
up before the French revolution. Example 2: Where would America's dreams of democracy have come from were it not for the rise of a locally-born aristocracy? With Free and Stable, I wonder if we're not trying to attach the head to the body here.
Example 3: If there's a state in the Middle East that is going to turn Arab heads towards a Better Way, then I'd just as soon chicken-peck guess that this state would be the United Arab Emirates. If you want to talk about a beacon in the center of the middle east go look up the numbers of tourists that come from other Arab countries to flock through Abu Dhabi, middle class folks like so many of the extremists we're up against. And that has nothing to do with democracy, and everything to do with culture/indoor snow slopes and moving sidewalks.
Pardon me if this sounds like a cynical interpretation of the human endeavor. I don't mean to fart all over this thread with bong poster truisms and act like I know the secret. But I have a Czech friend-- you'll remember the Republic is one of those states that "Saw the Light" and rejected the tyranny of the USSR for the hope of Democracy. He told me that before the velvet revolution, when people would see american movies, they wouldn't necessarily talk about how free our culture was, or how great it was that you could say whatever you wanted to about the president. He said that what really shocked moviegoers in Praugue was how much
stuff Americans had in their cupboard. A character in a movie would open up a cupboard, and inside would be rows and layers and columns of cereals, treats, all kinds of
stuff.
I don't mean to make more out of this anecdotal fluff piece than it's worth, and I definitely don't mean to hammer out a noxiously materialistic view of cultural history. But I guess what I do suggest is that, if your living in a country that can barely keep the lights on and the road to the airport safe, parliamentary elections might start to seem a little distant. Who in the middle east would want to emulate that? To use a really clumsy analogy, I'm saying that, to make Iraq a beacon, you might have to put some cereal in the cupboard. The elections and such might be secondary. Heck if I know though. There are unknowns we know, and then there are unknown unknowns. Something like that, right?
Anyway, by the time Iraq qualifies as Free and Stable to the point where other huddled masses in nearby countries want to emulate Iraq--estimate 10, 20 years?--then I wonder if the whole Middle East won't have moved on to new economies, and moved in new cultural directions in the interim time, rendering the whole process essentially redundant.
In other words: If the goal is to keep us safe by building an Iraq so successful that everyone around Iraq will want to come there, study the Iraqi way of life, read Thomas Friedman in the local cafe, then go back and scream for democracy at home...that sounds like a dream that takes
100s of years, not 6 years, let alone "six months." And that just might be too long of a time frame on which to base such a serious component of our foreign policy.
EDITED TO ADD:
QUOTE
How can you fight a war that was never declared against a tactic? None of this makes any sense. Terrorism isn't a place or a person or even a group of people. Its a method of doing things, a tactic, a question of style. Asking this question is like asking whether or not the USA is waging a war on fashion, or weather forecasting, or dancing the Tango.
ha ha ha ah aha ha.