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Just Leave me Alone!
I was looking at some early political betting for the 2012 election and was surprised to see Palin as the frontrunner for the GOP nod. I know that it's a political eternity away, but I like to read most of the people's thoughts here.

So I'll start with the question for debate and then give my opinion: Who would be most likely to beat Obama in 2012?

Obama isn't going to be easy to beat. He still has a lot of dedicated, unwavering support out there. Bad governance by Republicans under Bush (high debt for the time, unpopular wars) hasn't been forgotten. The Reps have to choose wisely to be able to go after Obama on all fronts.

First Sarah: If we've learned anything from this administration, it is that experience matters. Obama didn't have it and it has shown at times. Palin doesn't have it and isn't gaining any running around the country selling books IMO. Leaving office never made sense to me.

Next Mittens: It's no secret that I despise Romney for being such a flip-flopper (I still LMAO at this). The two biggest bills that Obama has passed that have turned independents are the 'health care' bill and the 'stimulus'. Romney can't attack Obamacare because it was practically based on Romneycare in Massachusetts.

If the Republicans choose either of these two current frontrunners for the nomination, I think they are doomed.

You need executive experience, so you need a Governor. The big three current Republican govs are Haley Barbour (MS), Mitch Daniels (IN), and Bobby Jindal (LA). I think that any of those three could do the job, but Mitch Daniels would be the best IMO. Daniels has the economic bonafides as Indiana's balance sheet is in the black while other states are bleeding red. Put him with a younger, swing state fiscal conservative (Paul Ryan is going to be on a lot of VP shortlists) and I can't see them losing.
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akaCG
Daniels and Ryan? Yup, I can definitely see that as a pretty formidable combination in 2012.

Heck, they might even win New Jersey, given who that state's governor is.
TAFNALH
QUOTE(Just Leave me Alone! @ Jul 13 2010, 10:49 PM) *
I was looking at some early political betting for the 2012 election and was surprised to see Palin as the frontrunner for the GOP nod. I know that it's a political eternity away, but I like to read most of the people's thoughts here.

So I'll start with the question for debate and then give my opinion: Who would be most likely to beat Obama in 2012?


I don't think Sarah Palin can beat Obama, in spite of his horrible record to date.

I do think that Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee certainly could. Some of the other candidates mentioned (Barbour, Jindal, Ryan, Pawlenty) are fine candidate would could potentially beat Obama.

Keep in mind that historically, the GOP have not selected a wild card. They've tended to select the candidate who has been viewed as "next in line" for the nomination. If that holds true, then Mitt Romney will be the nominee. In spite of the attacks that will certainly be made on his religion (Mormon) by the left, Romney is a very articulate candidate who has a track record of moderate politics (in contrast to Obama's extremism) and the ability to win over even a traditionally democratic state (MA).

I also agree that Ryan is the up and comer. I would not be surprise to see a Romney/Ryan ticket in 2012. And I see that ticket destroying Obama/Biden in a national election. Without getting into specific arguments about specific issues, Obama has perpetrated the worst possible sin of any "sales" effort which is to "over-promise and under-deliver". You can make a sale that way (I'm a sales professional), but you can't make a repeat sale using that tactic unless the alternative is totally objectionable.

That's why the only people Obama could possibly beat are Palin and Gingrich. If the GOP act true-to-form, Obama will join Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush as modern day one-term Presidents.
Just Leave me Alone!
QUOTE(TAFNALH @ Jul 18 2010, 08:47 AM) *
Keep in mind that historically, the GOP have not selected a wild card. They've tended to select the candidate who has been viewed as "next in line" for the nomination. If that holds true, then Mitt Romney will be the nominee. In spite of the attacks that will certainly be made on his religion (Mormon) by the left, Romney is a very articulate candidate who has a track record of moderate politics (in contrast to Obama's extremism) and the ability to win over even a traditionally democratic state (MA).

I also agree that Ryan is the up and comer. I would not be surprise to see a Romney/Ryan ticket in 2012. And I see that ticket destroying Obama/Biden in a national election.


Republicans do often go for the next in line candidate which is why I think that they don't have a chance. The two arguably next in line candidates have major flaws.

I think that you are underestimating Obama. Obama's approval ratings are in the upper 40's. Clinton's in mid-1993 were as low as 36% and he won reelection easily. Assuming Republicans make gains this November, that is one of the best things for Obama. No more giant government bills like the health care bill will get passed, and he'll have two years to pass some reasonable reforms while voter anger subsides over his Presidency to date. The tax hikes of next year will fire people up again, but after that Obama has nowhere to go but up. The economy almost has to improve. If he's at 47 approve to 46 disapprove now, it's going to take a great ticket to stop him. That means every issue (especially a major one like health care) needs to used. As previously stated, Romney can't do that.

Huckster? If he wins the GOP nod, I fully expect Bloomberg to run and all the fiscal conservatives who are sick of the religious obsessed GOP would vote for him. I give Bloomberg a generous 10% chance of the stars aligning and pulling it off.
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