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Hobbes
Today, another Malaysian 777 crashed, in Ukraine. All evidence indicates it was shot down, over separatist eastern Ukraine. We don't yet know who shot it down, or what equipment they used. So, an investigation is necessary, but I don't think it too early to discuss what the response should be, as responses have already been happening.

Putin's statement
Obama's first comments.
1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
2. I'm not sure separatists would be capable of doing this. Even if they did capture a missile system from Ukraine, they probably wouldn't know how to use it (although this could be a symptom of that). So, the real possibility of Russians having done this, or being directly responsible for the people who did do it (many reports that they have brought mercenaries into the area). If Russia itself is directly implicated, how should the U.S. handle this?
3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?
4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?
5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?
6. Do you think the perpetrators of this will ever be brought to justice, as Malaysia is requesting? If so, will they be the real perpetrators, or just some scapegoats?
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Bikerdad
1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
US and world response, which is already taking place, should be to re-route civilian aircraft around the conflict zone wherever possible. Beyond that, the question must be "was it intentional?" Investigate.

2. I'm not sure separatists would be capable of doing this. Even if they did capture a missile system from Ukraine, they probably wouldn't know how to use it (although this could be a symptom of that). So, the real possibility of Russians having done this, or being directly responsible for the people who did do it (many reports that they have brought mercenaries into the area). If Russia itself is directly implicated, how should the U.S. handle this?
They are capable of it. The missile system suspected of being used is produced by Russia, and has already been used by the militants to shoot down Ukrainian warplanes. The warplanes shot down were all hit at much lower elevations. Russia has apparently supplied these systems to the rebels.

3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?
They shouldn't. To my knowledge, nobody of any consequence anywhere in the world has suggested civilian airliners merely passing over would be at risk in the area.

4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?
I'm pretty sure that the US response on the foreign policy level will be handwaving and hashtags.

5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?
It's putting the separatists in a poor light, as well as putting their patrons, the Russians in a poor light. However, from a tactical/operational level, this may work to their advantage. By clearing the airspace above eastern Ukraine of civilian overflights, the rebels will have less concern about Ukrainian recon assets hiding among the airliners. That would mean the only things up there would be clean targets. Additionally, with no pesky civilians passing through, the Russians may be able to start using their own air assets to support their clients, which admittedly would slightly complicate the firing solutions. The effect of this may be similar to shooting a few rounds into the air outside the saloon. It clears the street before the gunfight.

6. Do you think the perpetrators of this will ever be brought to justice, as Malaysia is requesting? If so, will they be the real perpetrators, or just some scapegoats?
If by brought to justice you mean "Justice Court", only if it serves the interests of Russia, assuming that the perps are rebels or Russians. If by "brought to justice" you mean "buried 6 feet deep", that's hard to tell. It would REALLY serve the interests of most of Europe if the perps/suspected perps all mysteriously but very publicly died horribly. As for Malaysia, unless their airliner was deliberately selected as a target simply because they're essentially a non-entity in The Great Game, they're not but victims of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Of course, that truly could be all this is... wrong place, wrong time. It's possible that the rebels fired on a lower altitude Ukrainian warplane, and the missile, for whatever reason, ended up locking on to the 777 instead.
Gray Seal
The 777 was knocked out of the air at 32,000 feet. Does this altitude eliminate quite a few weapons from the possible list?

Who has access to capable weapons?

I doubt this was deliberate by either side. But, someone could be stupid thinking this would possibly be to their advantage.

I agree with Bikerdad that the only sensible reaction is to avoid that airspace.
Hobbes
QUOTE(Bikerdad @ Jul 17 2014, 07:04 PM) *
1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
US and world response, which is already taking place, should be to re-route civilian aircraft around the conflict zone wherever possible. Beyond that, the question must be "was it intentional?" Investigate.


It seems pretty clear that the plane was intentionally shot down. It doesn't seem like they realized it was a civilian aircraft when they did it. BUT the system they used should have been able to tell them that it was.

QUOTE
They are capable of it. The missile system suspected of being used is produced by Russia, and has already been used by the militants to shoot down Ukrainian warplanes. The warplanes shot down were all hit at much lower elevations. Russia has apparently supplied these systems to the rebels.

Used by the militants (ie, Ukranian separatists), or used by people Russia has put in place there (ie, Russian soldiers, or soldiers sent there by Russia or under Russian orders and training) to shoot down aircraft?

QUOTE
3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?
They shouldn't. To my knowledge, nobody of any consequence anywhere in the world has suggested civilian airliners merely passing over would be at risk in the area.


I tend to agree, but other countries (the US included) had already decided not to fly there. But it was perfectly acceptable at that time for airlines to fly there. The only restriction, which Ukraine had put in place, was for such traffic to be above 30,000 feet, which this flight was. The ICA (sp?--international version of the FAA) has since declared all of eastern Ukraine a no fly zone.

QUOTE
4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?
I'm pretty sure that the US response on the foreign policy level will be handwaving and hashtags.


I actually like the call by Obama for a multinational investigation---as long as he really pushes to make that happen. The site has already been contaminated, and I wouldn't be surprised if most evidence (black boxes, etc) is gone long before anyone gets there to investigate. This does open up the possibility for the U.S., and Europe, to push strongly for some sort of cease fire, and for Ukraine to assume control of the area during the investigation.

I didn't have any issues with Obama's brief statement today. Putin's statements, on the other hand, were very pointed and political, stating that this tragedy was due to Ukraine's efforts against the separatists (when, most likely, the opposite is the case).

QUOTE
5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?
It's putting the separatists in a poor light, as well as putting their patrons, the Russians in a poor light. However, from a tactical/operational level, this may work to their advantage. By clearing the airspace above eastern Ukraine of civilian overflights, the rebels will have less concern about Ukrainian recon assets hiding among the airliners. That would mean the only things up there would be clean targets. Additionally, with no pesky civilians passing through, the Russians may be able to start using their own air assets to support their clients, which admittedly would slightly complicate the firing solutions. The effect of this may be similar to shooting a few rounds into the air outside the saloon. It clears the street before the gunfight.


It may clear the airspace, but its going to fill the ground with investigators. Neither Russia, nor the separatists, will be happy with that.

QUOTE
Of course, that truly could be all this is... wrong place, wrong time. It's possible that the rebels fired on a lower altitude Ukrainian warplane, and the missile, for whatever reason, ended up locking on to the 777 instead.


Possible, but seeming less likely all the time. First, I think the weapons are more sophisticated that that...they hit what they were locked on to when launched (unless the other plane is in very close proximity). Also, there was a tweet right after the incident with someone bragging they had just shot down another cargo plane...which was removed a short time later when everyone realized they hadn't. There is also the purported cell phone conversations between the Russians and the separatists regarding this incident (which certainly places Russians in the conflict, despite their claims to the contrary) indicating that while they realized what they had just done, they weren't too worked up about it....with the Russian officer even exclaiming 'F them, they shouldn't have been there). Not exactly a public relations coup for Russia, if verified.

Cell Phone calls

QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 17 2014, 08:39 PM) *
The 777 was knocked out of the air at 32,000 feet. Does this altitude eliminate quite a few weapons from the possible list?


Yes. Shoulder fired missiles, like Stingers, can't go that high. So, it was definitely from a fairly sophisticated and powerful surface to air missile system, apparently a Russian Buk, like these pics. Also, there is a picture of just such a system in the area shortly before the launch.

QUOTE
Who has access to capable weapons?
Russians, and various countries they have sold these systems to. Ukraine had some, too, so it is possibly the militants captured one.

QUOTE
I agree with Bikerdad that the only sensible reaction is to avoid that airspace.


That goes without saying, now, I think. The question was more around what other responses. Should Obama push hard for a full and complete investigation. Easy answer seems to be 'yes'...but to what extent should he push to make that happen? Because there will be lots of resistance, and tampering of evidence.

It could be used as an excuse to bring in U.S., U.N., other European troops as peace keepers to assist in the investigation. Russia would want nothing of the sort happening, which is the main reason to even consider doing it. But that's a big step, which could lead to other 'accidents'.
Trouble
QUOTE(Hobbes @ Jul 17 2014, 05:16 PM) *
Today, another Malaysian 777 crashed, in Ukraine. All evidence indicates it was shot down, over separatist eastern Ukraine. We don't yet know who shot it down, or what equipment they used. So, an investigation is necessary, but I don't think it too early to discuss what the response should be, as responses have already been happening.

Putin's statement
Obama's first comments.
1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
2. I'm not sure separatists would be capable of doing this. Even if they did capture a missile system from Ukraine, they probably wouldn't know how to use it (although this could be a symptom of that). So, the real possibility of Russians having done this, or being directly responsible for the people who did do it (many reports that they have brought mercenaries into the area). If Russia itself is directly implicated, how should the U.S. handle this?
3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?
4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?
5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?
6. Do you think the perpetrators of this will ever be brought to justice, as Malaysia is requesting? If so, will they be the real perpetrators, or just some scapegoats?


As details emerge it will be easier to answer the questions. What is obvious is that American officials have been trying vigorously to become involved in Ukraine since the coup. The Russians have been trying to limit western support. This is beyond debate. Does shooting down a plane make that more or less likely? I think it would be more than fair to place a 2b question.

2b. Did the Poroshenko government or a faction inside of it fire on MH17?

I'd say the third question would be easiest to answer presently but is subject to revision.
To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?

A lot depends if the flight path was diverted over Ukraine airspace.

Were the pilots aware of restrictions over the airspace? American FAA policy is pretty clear.

QUOTE
Did aviation authorities know that this was a dangerous area?
Yes, they most certainly did. Nearly three months ago, on the "Special Rules" section of its site, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration put out an order prohibiting American pilots, airlines, charter carriers, and everyone else over whom the FAA has direct jurisdiction, from flying over parts of Ukraine.



So if this notice was put into effect three months ago, what is the Malaysian airlines policy in these matters?
The current line of reasoning makes little sense considering insurance providers would pull coverage immediately if additional risk was taken to simply shorten the route on a civilian airline. Frankly this is too silly to swallow.

Hopefully with additional information, we can more rigourously assess how the plane was downed as the plane was up pretty high for "rebel" equipment to hit.
moif
There were several other civilian aircaft operating in the same airspace. A Danish commercial flight out of Copenhagen was literally 180 seconds behind the Malaysian. According to the maps I've seen on Danish television, at least half a dozen civilian aircaft were operating in the airspace over eastern Ukraine at the time. The civil air authorities have explained their presence by pointing out that the airspace above 31,000 meters was considered safely out of range of the conflict.

My understanding of events, from local European sources is that a pro Russian seperatist group recently captured several tracked BUK SAM systems and this was confirmed by Sergey Kurginyan (though its not translated). The seperatists used these BUK systems to shoot down two Ukrainian military aircraft prior to the shooting down of MH17 and locals posted pictures of the captured BUKs parked in the region.

When MH17 was shot down, separatist military leaders Girkin and Strelkov posted online that their men had shot down a Ukrainian army AN-26 and local pro-Russian television media quickly picked upon the story showing footage of the smoke plume. Then the seperatists militia who gone to investigate the wreckage found it was of a commercial airliner. Their telephone calls to their Russian GRU handlers were intercepted and reveal their complicity. Girkin and Strelkov then removed their tweets and facebook posts and began pointing at the Ukraine military, claiming they did not have any SAM systems capable of hitting aircaft at that altitude.

The local Russian backed militia shot the missile at a blip on the radar, a blip they couldn't identify because they didn't have the means to see a commercial transponder. They are directly responsible for shooting down an aircraft full of families on vacation and top AIDS researchers on their way to a conference. Some of them have tried to shift the blame to their victims by claiming a commercial flight should not have been flying over a war zone. Rapists often use the same logic when they say 'she dressed like a slut'.

Putin however started all this with his dream of bringing back Greater Russia. Just like he did in Georgia. He has the blood of yet more children on his hands. He is directly responsible and so too are those Russians who support his eighteenth century megalomania.
AuthorMusician
1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?

It's looking as if the separatists were indeed at fault, and it was a typical SNAFU/FUBAR, according to communications that have come out.

2. I'm not sure separatists would be capable of doing this. Even if they did capture a missile system from Ukraine, they probably wouldn't know how to use it (although this could be a symptom of that). So, the real possibility of Russians having done this, or being directly responsible for the people who did do it (many reports that they have brought mercenaries into the area). If Russia itself is directly implicated, how should the U.S. handle this?

Putin is now experiencing what a huge pile of poo he has stepped into. It'd be smart for the US to leverage this event against Putin's ambitions. The obvious place to exercise the leverage is among the European countries still doing trade with Russia.

3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?

Interesting way to put it. The airline will likely be sued by the dozen or so countries with flesh in this thing. The company was likely trying to save a few bucks on fuel.

4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?

I think the response is reasonable, in that the facts are being collected and analyzed. This doesn't say anything about how it will play out.

5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?

World sentiments have just gone to the Ukrainian government over the separatists. However, it was pretty much there anyway, and this also points to an accidental situation. Nobody had anything to gain, and Putin has already lost.

6. Do you think the perpetrators of this will ever be brought to justice, as Malaysia is requesting? If so, will they be the real perpetrators, or just some scapegoats?


It is fairly certain that this incident was not done on purpose. So what do you do with poorly trained men trying to be soldiers and having weapons far beyond their abilities to use them?

Throw them into the Stupid Slammer? Seriously, it'd be manslaughter. Up to 15 years in prison would be appropriate if this were not a war zone. The perps probably will get away with it.
Aquilla
I am going to join "Team Obama" :gasp: Here is what we do.....


1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?




Hold a fund-raiser with a bunch of billionaire liberals (proving you don't need brains to make money).

2. I'm not sure separatists would be capable of doing this. Even if they did capture a missile system from Ukraine, they probably wouldn't know how to use it (although this could be a symptom of that). So, the real possibility of Russians having done this, or being directly responsible for the people who did do it (many reports that they have brought mercenaries into the area). If Russia itself is directly implicated, how should the U.S. handle this?


Some of the separatists are probably former Ukraine military that have been trained in the use of this system. Nothing there.

3. To what degree should Malaysia Airlines be held responsible, for failing to avoid flying in this area?


Kind of a dumb thing to do, but then again, it helps Boeing to sell more airplanes to them.


4. What do you think of the responses from the U.S. and Putin so far? What do they say about how this will be played out?


US response has been typical, "strong letter to follow". Putin? "Yeah right"

5. What impact, if any, do you think this will have on the conflict in Ukraine?


None, we'll "lead from behind" meaning Putin makes the calls. Everyone comfortable with that?

6. Do you think the perpetrators of this will ever be brought to justice, as Malaysia is requesting? If so, will they be the real perpetrators, or just some scapegoats?


We need to put that crack investigator, Eric Holder, on this. He'll get to the truth. Just don't send Lois Lerner to collect the black boxes, she'll break them.


Aquilla
AuthorMusician
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 18 2014, 11:47 PM) *
I am going to join "Team Obama" :gasp: Here is what we do.....

1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
Hold a fund-raiser with a bunch of billionaire liberals (proving you don't need brains to make money).

Heh, yeah. It'd be better than the conservative response of running in there, guns blazing, we'll just rack up more debt to accomplish nothing and actually make things worse. Economy crashes, but so what? We'll just rack up more debt to keep it going, and onward we go for what might be a long time.

As more information comes out, this is still looking like a stupid accident. Hey, what happens when I push that button? Putin has been jumping all over the place trying to make it seem not his fault.

It isn't working, and now almost all of Europe is against him. It won't take much persuading from Obama to slap more sanctions on Russia. The problem with this is it might go too far, pushing Putin to start invading the places that have the stuff he wants in Russia. It could blow up into WW III, and this time with more nukes than WW II.

So let's hope that doesn't happen.
Aquilla
QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 19 2014, 11:01 AM) *
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 18 2014, 11:47 PM) *
I am going to join "Team Obama" :gasp: Here is what we do.....

1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
Hold a fund-raiser with a bunch of billionaire liberals (proving you don't need brains to make money).

Heh, yeah. It'd be better than the conservative response of running in there, guns blazing, we'll just rack up more debt to accomplish nothing and actually make things worse. Economy crashes, but so what? We'll just rack up more debt to keep it going, and onward we go for what might be a long time.

As more information comes out, this is still looking like a stupid accident. Hey, what happens when I push that button? Putin has been jumping all over the place trying to make it seem not his fault.

It isn't working, and now almost all of Europe is against him. It won't take much persuading from Obama to slap more sanctions on Russia. The problem with this is it might go too far, pushing Putin to start invading the places that have the stuff he wants in Russia. It could blow up into WW III, and this time with more nukes than WW II.

So let's hope that doesn't happen.



Nobody has supported running in with guns blazing. Reagan ended the cold war and defeated the Soviets without firing a shot. He did that with a coherent set of policies and strong leadership. Your Messiah is incapable of either. He does a good standup routine, but that's about it.

Our friends don't trust us, our foes don't respect us. Given the current state of the Presidency, my best solution would be to send John Kerry over to have a 4 hour chat with Putin. 4 Hours in the same room with Kerry would either result in complete surrender or a pre-emptive strike. rolleyes.gif

Aquilla
Google
Ted
the latest news is pretty damming for Russia. the sophisticated missile system could not have been operated by the "separatists"...this is no shoulder fired missile.
Our response should be to jack up the sanctions and consider at least arms to the Ukrainian government . we know for a fact that all kinds of heavy weapons including tanks are pouring in over the eastern border. clearly madman Putin intends to have the east as a minimum.

this will have little impact on the conflict unless NATO wakes up - unlikely. Russia will deny all proof, gram all evidence that can at the scene and ignore the world....Putin doesn't give a damn what the world thinks - he may care about what the world does - which has been nearly nothing to date.

Finally let me say again as I have in the past. with thousands of shoulder fired missiles lose all over the world and nuts like Putin giving (and operating) big air defense systems to whoever, we need to fund systems that will protect our airliners. the systems have been out there for some time....

Aquilla
QUOTE(Ted @ Jul 19 2014, 01:05 PM) *
the latest news is pretty damming for Russia. the sophisticated missile system could not have been operated by the "separatists"...this is no shoulder fired missile.



Keep in mind, Ted, some of those "separatists" could have been in the Ukraine military and been trained in the use of that missile system prior to them going rogue.

Aquilla
Ted
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 02:31 PM) *
QUOTE(Ted @ Jul 19 2014, 01:05 PM) *
the latest news is pretty damming for Russia. the sophisticated missile system could not have been operated by the "separatists"...this is no shoulder fired missile.



Keep in mind, Ted, some of those "separatists" could have been in the Ukraine military and been trained in the use of that missile system prior to them going rogue.

Aquilla

the system came from Russia - we know that because they caught it on camera going back. if the Russians were stupid enough to give this system to people who clearly screwed up in using it they bear the blame...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-26...light-MH17.html
Aquilla
QUOTE(Ted @ Jul 19 2014, 01:50 PM) *
the system came from Russia - we know that because they caught it on camera going back. if the Russians were stupid enough to give this system to people who clearly screwed up in using it they bear the blame...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-26...light-MH17.html



I don't question that at all. And I don't absolve the Russians/Soviets of any complicity in this. Putin's hands are all over it. But, I don't think the argument that the separatists lacked the training in that missile holds much water. They may very well have been trained at some point by the Russians/Soviets.

Aquilla
AuthorMusician
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 02:04 PM) *
QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 19 2014, 11:01 AM) *
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 18 2014, 11:47 PM) *
I am going to join "Team Obama" :gasp: Here is what we do.....

1. Assuming it was separatists that did it, what should U.S. response be? World response?
Hold a fund-raiser with a bunch of billionaire liberals (proving you don't need brains to make money).

Heh, yeah. It'd be better than the conservative response of running in there, guns blazing, we'll just rack up more debt to accomplish nothing and actually make things worse. Economy crashes, but so what? We'll just rack up more debt to keep it going, and onward we go for what might be a long time.

As more information comes out, this is still looking like a stupid accident. Hey, what happens when I push that button? Putin has been jumping all over the place trying to make it seem not his fault.

It isn't working, and now almost all of Europe is against him. It won't take much persuading from Obama to slap more sanctions on Russia. The problem with this is it might go too far, pushing Putin to start invading the places that have the stuff he wants in Russia. It could blow up into WW III, and this time with more nukes than WW II.

So let's hope that doesn't happen.



Nobody has supported running in with guns blazing. Reagan ended the cold war and defeated the Soviets without firing a shot. He did that with a coherent set of policies and strong leadership. Your Messiah is incapable of either. He does a good standup routine, but that's about it.

Our friends don't trust us, our foes don't respect us. Given the current state of the Presidency, my best solution would be to send John Kerry over to have a 4 hour chat with Putin. 4 Hours in the same room with Kerry would either result in complete surrender or a pre-emptive strike. rolleyes.gif

Aquilla

Heh, flying into the face of history has to be tough. But carry on with criticizing the sitting POTUS about foreign affairs that you know precious little about. Republicans seem to have invented cute little euphemisms to hide their real agenda to send our military into each and every situation out there:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/...act-in-ukraine/

They are not to be trusted, and that is the legacy of 9/11/01 that they have earned.

McCain should really keep his trap shut. He was the one wanting to stay in Iraq for a hundred years or so.

Anyway, I hope President Obama's team does indeed pull off some kind of deal that keeps Putin from launching nukes. The potential of global thermonuclear war should offset petty partisan politics. Sorry about spitting so much.
Aquilla
QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 19 2014, 05:10 PM) *
Heh, flying into the face of history has to be tough. But carry on with criticizing the sitting POTUS about foreign affairs that you know precious little about. Republicans seem to have invented cute little euphemisms to hide their real agenda to send our military into each and every situation out there:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/...act-in-ukraine/

They are not to be trusted, and that is the legacy of 9/11/01 that they have earned.

McCain should really keep his trap shut. He was the one wanting to stay in Iraq for a hundred years or so.

Anyway, I hope President Obama's team does indeed pull off some kind of deal that keeps Putin from launching nukes. The potential of global thermonuclear war should offset petty partisan politics. Sorry about spitting so much.



I know as much about "foreign affairs" as Obama does since he claims to find out everything from "the news". Hell, I might even know more because I watch FOX News.

Face it, the guy is CLUELESS. He doesn't know what to do about anything, so he just plays golf and goes to fund-raisers. Good gig if you can get it.

Aquilla
Dingo
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 05:32 PM) *
I know as much about "foreign affairs" as Obama does since he claims to find out everything from "the news". Hell, I might even know more because I watch FOX News.

Throw in a little Limbaugh supplement with Beck for desert and you should have yourself covered. wacko.gif
Aquilla
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jul 19 2014, 08:57 PM) *
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 05:32 PM) *
I know as much about "foreign affairs" as Obama does since he claims to find out everything from "the news". Hell, I might even know more because I watch FOX News.

Throw in a little Limbaugh supplement with Beck for desert and you should have yourself covered. wacko.gif



That's a useful comment, and quite typical of you. Obama himself has claimed to hear about his own ineptness from the news. If you have a problem with that, don't blame Rush or Glenn Beck. You elected the idiot.

Aquilla
AuthorMusician
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 11:30 PM) *
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jul 19 2014, 08:57 PM) *
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 05:32 PM) *
I know as much about "foreign affairs" as Obama does since he claims to find out everything from "the news". Hell, I might even know more because I watch FOX News.

Throw in a little Limbaugh supplement with Beck for desert and you should have yourself covered. wacko.gif



That's a useful comment, and quite typical of you. Obama himself has claimed to hear about his own ineptness from the news. If you have a problem with that, don't blame Rush or Glenn Beck. You elected the idiot.

Aquilla

OMG, now I see it! The enormous wisdom of the shills has finally penetrated my poor brainwashed noggin. I am so ashamed of having voted for Obama twice that I will never, ever vote for him again.

That is my solemn promise to the world and our country, tis of thee.

Anyway, Putin's goons screwed up and shot down a commercial airliner full of innocent people, and everyone died. Now what?

A. We intervene with our military and force Crimea back into the fold.

B. We increase sanctions on Russia, hoping that this doesn't force Putin to retaliate somehow (thinking nukes here).

C. We do nothing and wait for Putin's inevitable fall from power.

D. We sue the stuffing out of airlines that try to save a few bucks on fuel while risking their customers' lives.

E. We give tax cuts to the rich and deregulate Wall Street.

F. We restrict women's rights and promote corporations' rights.

G. We buy firearms in case we ever get invaded or something.

H. We vote for Republicans in 2014 and 2016 because Obama is such a poopy pants.

So, what's it going to be?
Ted
QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 20 2014, 08:56 AM) *
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 11:30 PM) *
QUOTE(Dingo @ Jul 19 2014, 08:57 PM) *
QUOTE(Aquilla @ Jul 19 2014, 05:32 PM) *
I know as much about "foreign affairs" as Obama does since he claims to find out everything from "the news". Hell, I might even know more because I watch FOX News.

Throw in a little Limbaugh supplement with Beck for desert and you should have yourself covered. wacko.gif



That's a useful comment, and quite typical of you. Obama himself has claimed to hear about his own ineptness from the news. If you have a problem with that, don't blame Rush or Glenn Beck. You elected the idiot.

Aquilla

OMG, now I see it! The enormous wisdom of the shills has finally penetrated my poor brainwashed noggin. I am so ashamed of having voted for Obama twice that I will never, ever vote for him again.

That is my solemn promise to the world and our country, tis of thee.

Anyway, Putin's goons screwed up and shot down a commercial airliner full of innocent people, and everyone died. Now what?

A. We intervene with our military and force Crimea back into the fold.

B. We increase sanctions on Russia, hoping that this doesn't force Putin to retaliate somehow (thinking nukes here).

C. We do nothing and wait for Putin's inevitable fall from power.

D. We sue the stuffing out of airlines that try to save a few bucks on fuel while risking their customers' lives.

E. We give tax cuts to the rich and deregulate Wall Street.

F. We restrict women's rights and promote corporations' rights.

G. We buy firearms in case we ever get invaded or something.

H. We vote for Republicans in 2014 and 2016 because Obama is such a poopy pants.

So, what's it going to be?

ya sure - so sanctions leads him right to a nuclear war he cannot win - Really??? LOL laugh.gif

so your argument is just do as Obama does - look weak and wait for the next attack/takeover...

Sanctions and their threat is probably all that is saving the rest of Ukraine - we need more of em right now. and I do believe the other NATO allies need to step up here.

and if you think Putin is going to "fall from power" tell me how that happens - and then tell me the guy that replaces him will be some nice guy ready for pressing the "reset button" again laugh.gif
Aquilla
QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 20 2014, 07:56 AM) *
OMG, now I see it! The enormous wisdom of the shills has finally penetrated my poor brainwashed noggin. I am so ashamed of having voted for Obama twice that I will never, ever vote for him again.

That is my solemn promise to the world and our country, tis of thee.



I don't doubt that you voted for Obama twice. He is as delusional as you are. In your case, it's harmless, you just attempt to entertain us on a website. In his case, it's dangerous. He sees the world the way he wants it to be, but has no clue on how to make that "vision", blurred as it is, happen. He thinks that just by saying it he makes it true.

This is Obama's foreign policy

Aquilla
Hobbes
QUOTE(Trouble @ Jul 18 2014, 02:13 AM) *
As details emerge it will be easier to answer the questions. What is obvious is that American officials have been trying vigorously to become involved in Ukraine since the coup. The Russians have been trying to limit western support. This is beyond debate. Does shooting down a plane make that more or less likely? I think it would be more than fair to place a 2b question.


Actually, I believe American officials have been doing everything they can to stay uninvolved in Ukraine. They have been working from a distance, imposing sanctions, etc. Obama, just prior (I believe the morning of?) this incident imposed harsher sanctions. I'm ok with that, but it does beg the question as to whether or not they're working. I do believe this incident creates an excuse to get more involved if they (or their European allies) choose to, but it seems they still have little interest in that.
QUOTE
2b. Did the Poroshenko government or a faction inside of it fire on MH17?

I'd say the third question would be easiest to answer presently but is subject to revision.


At this point, that seems beyond question. I don't believe they did it on purpose (was there anyone on board they might have wanted to take out?), but clearly they are running from it as fast as possible. John Kerry earlier today stated that we KNOW that Russia provided the missile systems, that they have brought them back inside of Russia, and that one of them appears to be missing a missile. We also now have further intercepted phone calls indicating the Russia has issued an edict that nothing of any value from the plane wreckage ever make its way into Western hands. Personally, I find that interesting---what is the black box going to really say that would incriminate Russia, or anyone? At best, it might indicate where the plane was when hit, and which part of the plane was hit first. We probably already know the first from other data, and knowing the second says nothing about who fired the missile. BUT this is still very incriminating information. Although I think most realize that Russia has been very involved in the uprising in the Ukraine, they have also very vociferously denied any involvement. This makes their involvement, and the degree of it, much more apparent than Putin would like.

QUOTE
Were the pilots aware of restrictions over the airspace? American FAA policy is pretty clear.


The FAA is not the relevant party for international flights. That is the ICA (or some similar acronym) and they indicated flights there were fine. Just 90 seconds behind MH 17 was another flight, on the same path.

They quickly called all easter Ukraine restricted after this event.

QUOTE
Hopefully with additional information, we can more rigourously assess how the plane was downed as the plane was up pretty high for "rebel" equipment to hit.


Yes, it was. Which is why they were given Russian equipment.

-------------------

Given some of the information coming out, that this seems to have been done with equipment specifically supplied by Russian, almost certainly with Russian training (they are very sophisticated pieces of equipment, and this is an area that doesn't even have much refrigeration, or apparently even watches (most of the valuable belongings have been stolen, including money, watches, etc---one soldier joked in town about how everyone seemed to be sporting new watches today)...there is no way they would have any idea how to use this system without help. Interecepted phone calls clearly indicate that they were operating under the 'control' of Russia (indirect if not direct). Given this....how much should we hold Russia legally to blame? I wouldn't mind seeing a call for this. Not only is it justified, but it would force Putin on the defensive, which I can't really imagine how that would be a bad thing.
Mrs. Pigpen
QUOTE(Hobbes @ Jul 21 2014, 01:15 AM) *
QUOTE(Trouble @ Jul 18 2014, 02:13 AM) *
As details emerge it will be easier to answer the questions. What is obvious is that American officials have been trying vigorously to become involved in Ukraine since the coup. The Russians have been trying to limit western support. This is beyond debate. Does shooting down a plane make that more or less likely? I think it would be more than fair to place a 2b question.


Actually, I believe American officials have been doing everything they can to stay uninvolved in Ukraine.


Agreed. The fact that the plane was Malaysian Air, with the recent missing plane, really fuels conspiracy theories. Especially in Russia. This is a part of the world where past experience relied on the surreptitious passage of bits of information....it was the only way to find the truth behind the Iron Curtain. Conspiracy theories run rampant.

I don't think there is much to be done here...aside from redirecting air traffic, investigating, writing an angry letter/saying an angry speech, and some sort of civil action against the offending state (Russia, assumably) to compensate the families of victims in some way.
Objectively and realistically, this is a warzone. I doubt that the rebels/freedom fighters/loyalists/whatever in Ukraine have more resources and equipment to collect intel than the US Navy had in 1988.
AuthorMusician
Not only is Putin in a world of hurt, his country's billionaires are shaking in their boots:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-20/r...-isolation.html

Nobody but Putin's inner circle believes that he isn't to blame. Well, maybe the rank-file Russians being fed nothing but propaganda from the state-run press. The Dutch lost the most people in the attack, and that country, along with the UK, is pushing for greater sanctions from the EU. One commentator in the article did say that Putin's actions have rolled back the clock to the 1980s, the height of the Cold War. Another worried that the Russian economy would collapse in six months.

On top of this, Russia has risked becoming a terrorist state like Libya was after the airliner bombing attributed to that country.

Looks to me that Putin isn't long for this world. Either he will voluntarily retire or be forcibly retired via a strange and mysterious accident. You don't mess with billionaires' money without serious repercussions. That would be a positive outcome.
akaCG
QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Jul 21 2014, 08:11 AM) *
...
... The fact that the plane was Malaysian Air, with the recent missing plane, really fuels conspiracy theories. Especially in Russia. This is a part of the world where past experience relied on the surreptitious passage of bits of information....it was the only way to find the truth behind the Iron Curtain. Conspiracy theories run rampant.
...

Yup:
QUOTE
...
Did you know Malaysia Air Flight 17 was full of corpses when it took off from Amsterdam? Did you know that, for some darkly inexplicable reason, on July 17, MH17 moved off the standard flight path that it had taken every time before, and moved north, toward rebel-held areas outside Donetsk? Or that the dispatchers summoned the plane lower just before the crash? Or that the plane had been recently reinsured? Or that the Ukrainian army has air defense systems in the area? Or that it was the result of the Ukrainian military mistaking MH 17 for Putin’s presidential plane, which looks strangely similar?

Did you know that the crash of MH17 was all part of an American conspiracy to provoke a big war with Russia?

Well, it’s all true—at least if you live in Russia, because this is the Malaysia Airlines crash story that you’d be seeing.
...
... The best of the bunch is, of course, an elaborate one: MH17 is actually MH370, that Malaysia Airlines flight that disappeared into the Indian Ocean. According to this theory, the plane didn’t disappear at all, “it was taken to an American military base, Diego-Garcia.”
...
Floriana Fossato, a longtime scholar of Russian media, says that this, coupled with the media’s conscious use of the Soviet language of crisis—“traitors,” “fascists,” “fifth columns”—quickly brings to the surface the psychological demons of a society massively traumatized by the 20th century, traumas that society has never adequately addressed. The result, she says, is a kind of collective PTSD-meets-Stockholm Syndrome.
...

Link: http://www.newrepublic.com/node/118782

Hobbes
QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Jul 21 2014, 07:11 AM) *
I don't think there is much to be done here...aside from redirecting air traffic, investigating, writing an angry letter/saying an angry speech, and some sort of civil action against the offending state (Russia, assumably) to compensate the families of victims in some way.
Objectively and realistically, this is a warzone. I doubt that the rebels/freedom fighters/loyalists/whatever in Ukraine have more resources and equipment to collect intel than the US Navy had in 1988.


Just for this incident, agree. But it creates an opportunity to put more pressure on Putin over his other actions, some of which led directly to this incident. Obama seems to be doing this, now that we have some direct evidence of their involvement. This is a good thing, I think.

QUOTE(AuthorMusician @ Jul 21 2014, 07:39 AM) *
Nobody but Putin's inner circle believes that he isn't to blame. Well, maybe the rank-file Russians being fed nothing but propaganda from the state-run press. The Dutch lost the most people in the attack, and that country, along with the UK, is pushing for greater sanctions from the EU. One commentator in the article did say that Putin's actions have rolled back the clock to the 1980s, the height of the Cold War. Another worried that the Russian economy would collapse in six months.

On top of this, Russia has risked becoming a terrorist state like Libya was after the airliner bombing attributed to that country.


Looks to me that Putin isn't long for this world. Either he will voluntarily retire or be forcibly retired via a strange and mysterious accident. You don't mess with billionaires' money without serious repercussions. That would be a positive outcome.


Yep! And I'll bet Putin's inner circle knows better than anyone the various lies he tells....they're just not going to say a thing about it.

FWIW....I think they are just making matters worse for themselves hiding all the 'evidence'. I can't imagine anything on the black box that is going to say who fired the missile that brought the plane down. Probably not even anything indicating for sure it was a missile. It might indicate where the missile struck (ie, what systems malfunctioned first).
Hobbes
I also find it pretty comical that Russia is trying to say that it might have been Ukraine firing BUK missiles that downed this plane. What would Ukraine have needed BUK missiles there for? The separatists don't have any planes, do they? Especially not anything requiring something like this to shoot down. So, the only reason Ukraine would need such a system was to shoot down RUSSIAN planes in the area, which Putin denies having there---Putin is actually incriminating himself with this fabrication.

I think AM might be right...Putin's end may be coming. He's unraveling....
Gray Seal
I am not sure what you are saying, Hobbes. I heard on The Independents that Ukraine has 60 of these BUK units. Are you saying it is impossible that Ukraine would use one of them?

It seems to me that there are plenty of idiots around. Idiocy is not exclusive to separatists, Russian, or any region you could name. Some idiot in control of one of the Ukraine BUK units could have fired a missile.

I do not know of any political region for which I have confidence to tell the truth. We do know it was a region at war which was firing missiles to take down planes before the Malaysian Airline incident. Airlines are getting smarter a bit late but flying in such a region is hazardous.
Hobbes
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 01:07 PM) *
I am not sure what you are saying, Hobbes. I heard on The Independents that Ukraine has 60 of these BUK units. Are you saying it is impossible that Ukraine would use one of them?


If they used them....what were they using them against? The separatists have no air force...the only thing they could have been there for was to shoot down RUSSIAN planes, which Russia denies are there.

QUOTE
It seems to me that there are plenty of idiots around. Idiocy is not exclusive to separatists, Russian, or any region you could name. Some idiot in control of one of the Ukraine BUK units could have fired a missile.


Again, at what? Why would they even be manning them, as there is no opposing air force they would be worried about.

So, my point is that the only reason Russia would even bring this up is that Putin knows he HAS been sending planes there, which he has denied. So his creation of this narrative for the MH17 incident actually implicates himself on something else.

FWIW...the U.S. has apparently confirmed that there were NO Ukraining BUK missile launchers any where near this area. Which makes sense...no reason for them to be there.
Gray Seal
I do not trust the United States. The United States is not a good source.

As to what Ukraine might have been shooting at, I believe a commercial airliner was struck by a missile.

I do not think it is likely that the facts will ever be iron clad known.
Hobbes
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 03:40 PM) *
I do not trust the United States. The United States is not a good source.


The other source is Putin, who can't speak on this issue without issuing bald faced lies. Plus, what he says makes no sense, whereas what the U.S. is putting out does. But, if you aren't going to trust the U.S., or the West....who ARE you going to trust? Putin? Ukraine? The separatists? Those will be the only information sources we will have. And the separatists aren't going to say anything Putin doesn't tell them to say.

QUOTE
As to what Ukraine might have been shooting at, I believe a commercial airliner was struck by a missile.

I do not think it is likely that the facts will ever be iron clad known.


Why would Ukraine shoot at a commercial airliner???? Why would they even have missile launchers in the area?

Facts are never iron clad known. But what happened here seems pretty obvious. Russia gave the separatists some missile launchers, to help them in their fight against Ukraine, and they shot down this airliner with them.

Unless you believe Putin, and this was just a transport plane filled with corpses, masquerading as an airliner.
Gray Seal
Here is a source with different facts and questions.

What is obvious to you does not seem to be based upon anything other than choosing to pick a side based upon faith. It is faith which is not earned.

I do not believe either Putin or Ukraine or the United States. There is no need to be forced to pick one.

Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation? Why deploy them needlessly? These seem like good questions to me.

It is a quagmire. Sorting it out is not vital. It is important to not blindly believe governments which have not earned that trust. Such trust leads to support of bad decisions. We have done enough of that as voters here in the United States. It is time to quit being lenient.
Hobbes
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 05:45 PM) *
Here is a source with different facts and questions.

What is obvious to you does not seem to be based upon anything other than choosing to pick a side based upon faith. It is faith which is not earned.


No, it is obvious based on what transpired, the current situation, what is known about Russia's involvement in the eastern Ukraine, and the evidence at hand. I'm not picking a side....I'm looking at what the various sides are saying, and noting which ones are clearly covering up their tracks---which is incriminating in itself.

QUOTE
I do not believe either Putin or Ukraine or the United States. There is no need to be forced to pick one.


I get your point, but in this situation, yes, you are going to be forced to pick one, because they will be ouallnly information sources you have (along with Europe/the Netherlands). There isn't going to be an unfettered investigation. The evidence on who might have actually been involved is going to come from one of the above sources. As is any of the various radar/satellite data. So, the best we can do is look at what is presented, and judge for ourselves. So far, what the U.S. is saying makes sense. What Putin is putting forth not only doesn't make sense, but is either completely outlandish (the plane was full of corpses? Really?) or doesn't make sense (Ukrainian missiles did it, when they have no reason to even be in the area or anything to shoot at).

QUOTE
Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation? Why deploy them needlessly? These seem like good questions to me.


Fair enough...which is why I say what Putin is saying doesn't add up, whereas what I'm hearing from the U.S. does. For example, the info that the U.S. has verified that Ukraine didn't have any Buk launchers any where in that area. I would be skeptical on the surface....but there aren't any reasons they would have them there, and wouldn't want them captured and used against them, so it makes sense that they wouldn't be there. But Russia's initial story that it was Ukraine that shot the missile didn't make sense, for the reasons I stated---they had nothing to be shooting at, whereas the separatists did.

FWIW...if the U.S. were putting out a false story, there are other sources that could contradict it. We aren't the only ones with radar or satellites in the area. I think Obama is well aware of this, and understands that if they put out something false, they will lose whatever leverage they have against Putin on this. Putin, on the other hand, is either already neck deep in it, or doesn't care. His control over the media in his country is pretty absolute, so no other story but the ones he puts forth is going to get out.

QUOTE
It is a quagmire. Sorting it out is not vital. It is important to not blindly believe governments which have not earned that trust. Such trust leads to support of bad decisions. We have done enough of that as voters here in the United States. It is time to quit being lenient.


I get your point, and would normally agree with you. But, big difference between trust domestically and trust in foreign affairs. Obama has nothing to gain by putting forth a lie or something not backed up with evidence in this instance, and plenty to lose if contradictory evidence surfaces. If Russia had it, they would put it forth. So, no, I don't trust either party, and certainly skeptical of Ukrainian info, but that doesn't mean you can't see which side's story is adding up, and which sides isn't...or noting which side doesn't have much, if any, reason to lie, and which one does.
Bikerdad
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 02:40 PM) *
I do not trust the United States. The United States is not a good source.

As to what Ukraine might have been shooting at, I believe a commercial airliner was struck by a missile.

I do not think it is likely that the facts will ever be iron clad known.

Again, you are dodging the question. What possible reason would the Ukrainians have had for shooting AT an aircraft overflying them, from WEST (i.e. friendly territory) to EAST? Especially given that the Ukrainians had tactical control over the airspace? To date, NO "separatist" air assets have been identified, claimed, or even hinted at. The claim that the Ukrainians shot it down makes as much sense as a claim that MH370 has actually been forced into a real world instantiation of Lost.

Sure, its possible, but stands as a amorphous blob of Jello in the face of Occam's Razor.


QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 22 2014, 04:45 PM) *
Here is a source with different facts and questions.

What is obvious to you does not seem to be based upon anything other than choosing to pick a side based upon faith. It is faith which is not earned.

I do not believe either Putin or Ukraine or the United States. There is no need to be forced to pick one.

Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation?

hmmm, perhaps because their neighbor is Russia?? Ukraine also has strategic bombers. They inherited both, as well as many other weapons, during the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. All military equipment, with the exception of nukes, became the property of whatever Republic nee country it was in when the dissolution took place.
Mrs. Pigpen
QUOTE(Bikerdad @ Jul 23 2014, 04:23 AM) *
QUOTE
Why does Ukraine have BUKs if the rebels do not have aviation?

hmmm, perhaps because their neighbor is Russia?? Ukraine also has strategic bombers. They inherited both, as well as many other weapons, during the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. All military equipment, with the exception of nukes, became the property of whatever Republic nee country it was in when the dissolution took place.


I was thinking the same. Furthermore, the Ukraine is a sovereign country, responsible for its own defense, and should have an air defense system. It would be odd in the extreme if they didn't.

Of the scenarios:
1. The Russian-backed separatists accidentally fired on a passenger plane, believing it to be a Ukrainian military plane.
2. The Ukrainian military fired on a passenger plane for PR points against Putin (which would require a massive coverup, to say the least).

The first is the most plausible by far. The second passes neither the reasonability test nor reasonable doubt standard.
Hobbes
QUOTE(Mrs. Pigpen @ Jul 23 2014, 07:26 AM) *
Of the scenarios:
1. The Russian-backed separatists accidentally fired on a passenger plane, believing it to be a Ukrainian military plane.
2. The Ukrainian military fired on a passenger plane for PR points against Putin (which would require a massive coverup, to say the least).

The first is the most plausible by far. The second passes neither the reasonability test nor reasonable doubt standard.


Which is what my point is. It's not that I inherently trust any side here to provide the unfiltered truth, but what one side is saying adds up, and what the other side is saying doesn't.
Gray Seal
I have less faith in the miscreants in leadership of Ukraine. I do think they are capable of mischief such as taking down a commercial craft and blaming the rebels.

The scenario of a mistaken firing of a missile does seem most likely. Most likely, not a slam dunk.

The United States has lots of information is could release to the public about the incident. Instead it is playing a blame game for political reasons. I do not appreciate nor agree with the politics. I am neither blind nor naive about shenanigans with the truth our administration is capable of in recent history whether it be Bush or a Obama.

There seems to be two sources: internet chat and Russian data. The absence of information from the United States is glaring.

There will be some information from the flight recorder soon. I doubt this black box data will make the picture clear.

If everyone is labeling the rebel accidental firing of a missile as the most likely scenario, I can understand that. If everyone is saying this is what happened and there is no reasonable doubt, I believe this to be prejudiced opinion and more driven such as a fanboi than actual data to back it up.

The rhetoric from the United States is predictable and disturbing. The militaristic attitude is disruptive to the world.

-------

Does the data showing a fighter jet in the near vicinity of MH-17 immediately before the tragedy give any of you pause? Maybe there was no BUK involved?
Mrs. Pigpen
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 11:11 AM) *
There seems to be two sources: internet chat and Russian data. The absence of information from the United States is glaring.


The US will probably not release any information that would endanger (compromise, whatnot) evidence that might become necessary for trial in the future.

Even, hypothetically, if that weren't the case I'm sure there are a lot of checks and balances that have to be made for security reasons before that type of thing could be released.
Gray Seal
Trial? What trial?

And if there is to be a trial, how do facts become damaged from public knowledge? Facts are suppose to be public knowledge.

Excuses, whatever they are, are lame, false, and attempted divergence.
Mrs. Pigpen
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 11:30 AM) *
Trial? What trial?

And if there is to be a trial, how do facts become damaged from public knowledge? Facts are suppose to be public knowledge.

Excuses, whatever they are, are lame, false, and attempted divergence.


You don't believe there will be any trial after this? There often are. Furthermore the investigation itself isn't finished. Facts before the end of an investigation are usually NOT public knowledge.

Even, hypothetically, if that weren't the case I'm sure there are a lot of checks and balances that have to be made for security reasons before such information could be released to the public.

I stand by what I said here, years ago.
Gray Seal
Was there a trial when the United States shot down the commercial airplane over the Persian Gulf? Is there another example you are thinking of?
Mrs. Pigpen
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 11:52 AM) *
Was there a trial when the United States shot down the commercial airplane over the Persian Gulf? Is there another example you are thinking of?


Yes. There was a settlement for that one. It wasn't the only one. A big one that comes to mind was Lockerbie.
Aquilla
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 10:11 AM) *
The United States has lots of information is could release to the public about the incident. Instead it is playing a blame game for political reasons. I do not appreciate nor agree with the politics. I am neither blind nor naive about shenanigans with the truth our administration is capable of in recent history whether it be Bush or a Obama.



The US is not going to release all of the information they have on this, nor should they. The last thing they want to do is tell the gangster Putin how good our intel gathering is.

Aquilla
Gray Seal
The cloak and dagger game angle is tiresome. It is a weak excuse to keep voters in the dark. It is a harmful means to propagandize a willing segment who are optimistic about government actions in spite of a trickle of information which points otherwise. I do not think the rest of the world is fooled like many Americans seem to be. When it is your team you want to believe in them.
Aquilla
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 23 2014, 02:52 PM) *
The cloak and dagger game angle is tiresome. It is a weak excuse to keep voters in the dark. It is a harmful means to propagandize a willing segment who are optimistic about government actions in spite of a trickle of information which points otherwise. I do not think the rest of the world is fooled like many Americans seem to be. When it is your team you want to believe in them.



We aren't talking about a James Bond novel or Spy vs. Spy in MAD magazine, it's not a game. In the real world means and methods can mean the difference between life and death, and between freedom and tyranny. Some things are best left secret for all concerned. I believe this situation falls into that category.

The US has already disclosed to the news media that they monitored the launch of the SAM-11, plotted it's trajectory, and determined the intercept point. They determined the launch point to be in the "rebel" held region of Ukraine, not far from the Russian border. The SAM system was Russian made. To suggest that anyone other than Russian-backed separatists, or covert Russian military is responsible flies in the face of any form of logical thought.

Nobody from the outside could even get into the crash site area for days, so how in the hell could the Ukraine army get in there to fire the missile? Beyond rational belief. Distrusting the government is one thing, but man, you need to pick your battles. Neither you nor Lew Rockwell is going to win on this one. rolleyes.gif


Aquilla
Gray Seal
The US monitored the launch of the SAM-11? Where did you find this information? All I could find was that US conclusions were based upon social media.
Aquilla
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 24 2014, 08:59 AM) *
The US monitored the launch of the SAM-11? Where did you find this information? All I could find was that US conclusions were based upon social media.



I saw it on the news, specifically FOX news, but even CNN had it. They didn't say how the US was able to monitor the incident, just that we did. Remember we have some pretty sophisticated ships in the area and some very sophisticated satellites overhead. I don't know what they can do now, but back in the day when I worked in the industry it was pretty impressive. And that was 20 years ago.


Edited to add...

This may be what you're referencing

And that goes back to sources and methods. Offering "social media" as a source is a safe thing to do The reports I saw on television didn't come from social media, they were pretty specific on where and when the launch occurred. Identifying the missile as an SA-11 is a no-brainer, they've been around for a very long time and we know what they look like.

Aquilla
Hobbes
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 24 2014, 08:59 AM) *
The US monitored the launch of the SAM-11? Where did you find this information? All I could find was that US conclusions were based upon social media.


Hopefully you aren't getting that info from Russian sources, Gray Seal, because that is the story that Russia has been putting forth. The information has been pretty widespread on U.S. News channels. It shows the launch position and trajectory of the missile, from satellite and radar sources. It has also been put out, separately, by various European countries, based on their own data.

There was a Russia Today anchor on a show with CNN (Cuomo was the interviewer), who went on and on about Russia releasing all their info on this, which I haven't seen at all. I've heard their conclusions, but not seen any of the data. And none of it is definitive. For example, they say they have a Ukrainian SU25 on radar a few kilometers behind MH17. That might be true, but doesn't say anything about them seeing a missile launched from that plane towards MH17. The Russian info seems intended to obfuscate, whereas data from the West seems to clarify.

FWIW...the social media evidence is real evidence. Their was a tweet about shooting down a tanker right after MH17 was hit, and then it was deleted when it was discovered what it was that was shot down. Both of those are valid data points, even coming from social media. The Ukrainian intercepted phone calls have also been corroborated by the U.S., at least so far as apparently the voices on those calls match voice patterns we have for the people Ukraine says were on each end of the calls.
Gray Seal
I can not find any information from FoxNews or CNN on their websites about the US having monitored the launching of the missile which took down MH17. There has been a media frenzy with lots of speculation. Don't get caught up in it and think there are facts when there are not. Taking speculation as facts leads to poor conclusions.

I had a link to the Russian data in this thread earlier.

Both of you seem to be sucked in by wanting to believe. You need to be as skeptical about US news and government sources as you are about Russian.
Aquilla
QUOTE(Gray Seal @ Jul 24 2014, 12:18 PM) *
I can not find any information from FoxNews or CNN on their websites about the US having monitored the launching of the missile which took down MH17. There has been a media frenzy with lots of speculation. Don't get caught up in it and think there are facts when there are not. Taking speculation as facts leads to poor conclusions.

I had a link to the Russian data in this thread earlier.

Both of you seem to be sucked in by wanting to believe. You need to be as skeptical about US news and government sources as you are about Russian.



I honestly don't know where you are going with this, Gray Seal. If you are saying the US News media, sorry state as it is in, is as bad as the State controlled Russian/Soviet media, you are wrong. Social media plays a part in this story to be sure, but social media didn't pinpoint the launch point and trajectory of that missile. That was the animation I saw on both CNN and FOX, and it was identical. That had to come from military/intel sources. The fact that they didn't tell you exactly how that information was obtained doesn't make it untrue. There are reasons for that.

Now, if you really want to know how, go to school for 5 years like I did and get 2 engineering degrees, then go to work for 20 years in the defense industry, keep your nose clean, get a bunch of security clearances and maybe then they'll tell you how they did it. thumbsup.gif

Aquilla
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